I recommend against whale worship.  Glad to have him; he's very welcome.  Let's please leave him be.  You pester, you get swatted.

I endorse cryptonic.

To drive out the villagers, poison the well.  Then you can move in, unopposed.

Please use the speculation thread. 

If the DAO hack gets laundered through XMR, it will establish a major precedent, and XMR will subsequently attract vast funds, as well as intense political pressure.  Expect huge volatility, along with a massive long term upward price pressure in that case.

Personally, I would not choose XMR if I were the DAO hacker, except as a long term investment.  I would move about half of my value into XMR cold storage, mix the rest as btc, and buy stolen gold and shelf-stable drugs on AlphaBay with BTC.

Or by new firearms.  By elite you mean the Chinese communist party.  That is who now has control of the overwhelming bulk of the ASIC hash power, ultimately: The central committee.  Specifically, the revanchist wing of the central committee, the ones seeking war in the south china sea, and the lopping of a thousand blossoms.

I am trickle-buying the micro-dips.  I need to replace XMR wallets which I am giving to friends and family members to whom I owe a duty of service or compassion.  However, I will withhold from them each a single seed word, stored among my secure papers, to be delivered in the event of my death along with instructions not to sell below $75/XMR.  It seems like a good time to do this, because now they will appreciate that it has present value as well as future potential value, and delaying this is likely to result in greater costs.  Knowing that they have these funds (which the view key allows them to monitor) is likely to pique their interest in Monero in a way which my facts and logic can not - hopefully, to their benefit.

When I have finished that, I plan to make tax-deductible donations for the year, in the form of Monero wallets, to be delivered without restrictions on December 31st.  In this way I hope to provide a much larger sum to my favorite charities than I would have been able to provide in dollars.  Indeed, since they will not be delivered until nigh 2017, I may personally gain a large tax benefit from the timing, to offset gains on Monero which I retain.  I will have to review the apparent optionality with my tax accountant.

Or different drugs!

Maybe some of us are mostly silicon?

Electrons are a helluva drug.

I think those of us who watched the bull/bear p!ssing matches, the FUD storms, the hacks, ddos attacks, and scams that were the bitcoin scene in 2013 have a pretty good idea what to expect... If you are from the post-gox era, please try simulating 2013 using the wall observer thread.  That is basically the worst-case scenario coming up for the Monero community.  You have been warned. 

I think the majority of products offered in DNMs are actually legal, but embarrassing to the seller and buyer.

Not most of the funds spent, mind you, just products on offer.

Very true.  Indeed most information is disinformation or misinformation, albeit generally without malicious intent.  But it is better to be exposed to the ideas, and to test them, than to entirely miss out on ideas which might not otherwise have occured to you.  I particularly appreciate (although I do not enjoy) when I get called out on some error or key missing point in something I posted.  Otherwise, why bother to post?  The downside is the danger of being lulled into groupthink.  I used to think myself immune, but in fact it can be subtle and very pernicious.  The ideal is to be able to recognize the ebbs and flows of groupthink, while standing apart from it.  There is also some value in anything that keeps you engaged with an important topic, so that your energy is focused.  (For instance, right now, my focus should be on monte carlo inference over a structured bayesian regression problem, and not XMR.)

I think that is not the best mode of technical analysis.  The good form of technical analysis is the use of price movements as observable signals about mass psychology.  Prices are determined by mass psychology, a wealth-weighted voting system.  Rules of thumb inferred from many observations of common market patterns are really rules about mass investment psychology, summary statistics over conditional histories.

Yes, you can usefully apply technical analysis on the basis of price and volume alone.  I often do, simply because I have limited information . (I consider that a very small edge, and only ever take very small positions on that basis.)  But if you allow the known facts to inform your technical interpretations, your predictive power will increase dramatically, in the cases where those facts are available (and relevant), and you can increase your sizing accordingly, so such cases are much more useful and important.

This is particularly relevant in crypto markets, I think:  The fundamental factors can much more easily dominate over the mass psychology of a relatively small audience, and event risks tend to be large relative to market size.

There is little enough harm, I suppose, in waiting for 0042.  If it never drops below 0075, well, you can always buy higher, and you're protected against the possibility of experiencing a period of regret before the next impulsive rise (which can be reasonably expected to occur on 1 Sep).  However, I urge my close friends to establish some position immediately, regardless of price, and then to grow it over time.  Opportunistically, if may be.  With discipline, if not.

 

I think the correct bottom is the day the DNM news was announced to the general public.  This move is motivated by that informaiton, and its retrace is a retrace of that specific impulse.  It is the only gap that needed to be filled.  Retracement to .618 is 0.0075, to 0.500 is 0.0069 to 0.382 is 0.0064.  That is how my bids are placed, anyhow.  So far, only 0075 has filled.

The previous move was on inside information, and there will be no retrace of that move, because the number of participants was vanishingly small compared to the number participating in the public information move.

A store of value that can be stolen from you is no store of value.  Privacy is essential to self-defense against extortionists and thieves.

The supply policy of monero is crafted to assure the future operation of the mining network, while preventing supply inflation.  I have more confidence that monero can operate for 100 years than I do for any other crypto - bitcoin included, as it lacks a tail emission policy.

Ver has operated the MemoryDealers account since before I joined BTT.

So true.  Thank you for reminding me to be cautious not to speak beyond my epistemic basis, to qualify provisional and conditional statements appropriately, and to take care that my words do not readily admit a false interpretation.  (The last of those being by far the most difficult.)

Uber-bullish though.  Trying not to get caught off-sides again.  Once I can get a fill, I will be very cautious about future market-making.  Too many upside catalysts in the pipe right now.

If you think bitcoin will ever move enough technologically to enable meaningful privacy, you must be smoking crack.  They can't even deal with changing a constant.

Since Nixon planted the seeds of destruction by stomping down the gold standard, then. About the same time u.s. median wage-earner income stopped growing, and the number of billionaires skyrocketed.  I.e. since Americans became slaves.

All of your activities are being monitored and archived for analysis by ever-increasing machine intelligence.  If your "metadata" is deemed untoward, you will be killed by a drone, "lawfully".

In China, if you make bearish statements about the markets, you may be imprisoned.  So far, Europe and the Americas still permit individuals to speak freely about markets, as long as they are ignorant ( no inside information ), but they are cut off from mass media if they are "off-message".

Decentralization and cryptographic privacy are the technological counter trend force.  Recruit everyone.  Refuse to transact on monitored channels when you have leverage to control the channel.

Note that this thread is heavily censored.  I am probably persona non grata, because I want you to get rich, by a viable and hence unapproved means.