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5841  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: pirateat40's end game on: April 25, 2012, 09:26:12 PM
The low end dealer is selling for 120/g which he bought for 80/g from a guy who bought for 40/g from a guy who bought for 25/g from a guy who bought a key for 15/g. please keep in mind that each guy cut it 20%(rough guess).

Thank you captain obvious Smiley I was, however responding to this quote:

Quote
1 Kilo of cocaine street price: $15,000

By 'street', I assume he didnt mean El Chapo's driveway, nor the streets of Kunduz, Afghanistan Wink

Right... it's $1500 in those locals, just like gamer4156 said in the rest of his post you left out.
5842  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Withdraw USD from mtgox on: April 25, 2012, 07:35:32 PM
Looks like this thread is in the wrong section? I don't see any speculation going on in here  Tongue

On topic, there's hasn't been a free way to convert BTC into straight cash, and there also has never been an instant way either.

Spendbitcoins can also do Amazon Payments (it's gone atm, but I was assured it would be back in a couple days).  Using that method, it is as close to feeless as I've found.
5843  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: pirateat40's end game on: April 25, 2012, 06:56:28 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/27/how-much-is-cocaine_n_883853.html#s297564&title=Greece_104_per

Click on the image to see street prices for various countries. US is listed as $120 per gram. Thats $120K per Kg.
I dont use let alone deal cocaine, but if someone can get me 1KG for $15K, I might be interested Smiley

The drug industry has huge volume discounts since everybody who touches the stuff needs huge margins to take on that kind of risk.
5844  Economy / Economics / Re: Current Bitcoin inflation rate = 35%. Price = stable on: April 25, 2012, 01:02:12 AM
Again, what did the last Buggy Whip sell for?
There's one selling for about 2 BTC (equivalent) here: http://cheshirehorse.com/Buggy-Whip-P6374.aspx

I wonder how that compares to the inflation-adjusted buggy-whip price in 1900...

It doesn't have the last couple years worth of data, but http://www.westegg.com/inflation/ gives this:
"What cost $10 in 2010 would cost $0.39 in 1900."
5845  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: 1420 mins till end of day on: April 25, 2012, 12:40:32 AM

Ummm... is that where BTC come from?
5846  Economy / Economics / Re: Is it good to have one currency across borders ? Friedman says No. on: April 24, 2012, 11:03:02 PM
Germany is doing poorly? I thought they were the ones who were going to bail everyone else out...

Interview is from 2003.
5847  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sorry guys! on: April 24, 2012, 06:14:39 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trend_line_(technical_analysis)
5848  Economy / Speculation / Re: back to square one on: April 24, 2012, 06:12:57 PM
700,000 new locations selling a maximum total of 21,000,000 = 30 coins per store being ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM amount that could be sold ever.

The demand is going to outweigh the supply... and fast.

+1 bitcent

I'll agree this will drastically improve the ability of the demand to be met, but your math only holds if everyone who buys them holds them instead of spending them or selling them.

Will these 700,000 new location be taking your BTC and giving you cash, or only the other way around?


As I understand it, they will be selling you a USD-denominated bitinstant gift card that can be exchanged for BTC.  But, then again, details are sketchy at best.
5849  Economy / Speculation / Re: back to square one on: April 24, 2012, 05:49:16 PM
700,000 new locations selling a maximum total of 21,000,000 = 30 coins per store being ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM amount that could be sold ever.

The demand is going to outweigh the supply... and fast.

+1 bitcent

I'll agree this will drastically improve the ability of the demand to be met, but your math only holds if everyone who buys them holds them instead of spending them or selling them.
5850  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Physical Silver ETF on GLBSE? on: April 23, 2012, 10:02:07 PM
Sounds like ridiculous overkill for 5k of silver..  a .jpg every month or so with hot chicks in bikini's would be more then sufficient Wink

Well, the idea would be that I'd provide the service to be completely above-board and transparent. The more reliable the service, the more likely people would use it, and if it did get popular we'd issue more shares and buy more silver.

Will you also offer a short ETF?

No, I absolutely would not, sorry if you were interested in this. I disagree with this practice when it is done with SLV and other commodity ETFs in the US stock exchanges.

In fact, the seed money used to start this fund will probably come from my sale of my SLV stock which I believe I am finally done with due to their short-selling. Selling what you do not have is deriving value where there is none and is an affront to good sensibility. I cannot imagine loaning stock in silver to someone who I am not certain can pay me back tomorrow, especially if the price were to double or triple. Worse still, even if I were do this of my own accord, this still puts a financial obligation on my own name and net worth, one which I may not be able to fulfill.

The housing crisis has shown us the irrationality of the market. There is something that the Black-Scholes equation does not properly account for called Kurtosis risk, or, if you have heard of it, the "Black Swan" effect. If you do not know what that is, I'll try to explain it here.

Basically, tomorrow everyone could decide to go to their local coin dealer and buy every single silver coin and the price of silver would go from $30 to possibly some unbelievably high number, like $3000/ounce. It is VERY unlikely such a thing would ever happen, but it *could* happen, and that is what Kurtosis risk is, the idea that not only could something go outside of reasonably risk levels, but that it could do so in a major way and in a very short period of time.

One of the examples that I like to use of Kurtosis risk is an experiment in which they asked several professional gamblers to imagine they go into a casino and sit down at a roulette table. They each witness, before their very eyes, the ball land on 0 ten times in a row, meaning neither red nor black bets get paid. Now a rational and logical person, knowing all the odds of the game should never bet 0 on an 11th spin is more likely than the 1 in 37 chance, but every professional gambler said the likelihood was higher than 1 in 37. When asked why, the answer these professional gamblers gave came down to, "How do they know the system isn't rigged, or maybe something is wrong with the wheel that makes it land on 0 more often?" In other words, the circumstances around the situation were so extreme, that it was now likely all logical and rational analysis is risky.

The "Black Swan" reference comes from a book that explains Western Europeans used to have a phrase very similar to "when pigs fly" called "like a black swan". The problem was that around 1790 they did end up finding black swans in Australia. This went to show that there are "known knowns", such that there are species of pig we've identified. There are "known unknowns", such that there may be species of pigs that we may have not yet identified. And finally, there are "unknown unknowns", such that there may be species of pigs that we know so little about, we can't really say with any degree of certainty that "pigs cannot fly".

Sorry I spent so much time on this post, but I wanted to be thorough in explanation. I'm sorry if not providing a short silver ETF upsets anyone, but I cannot make short sale predictions due to Kurtosis risk.

I don't know if I can own my own stock on GLSBE, but if so, I might actually do this on my own so that any increase in the value of silver from here on up doesn't get hit with as big of a cap gains tax. I'm already looking at a tax on the %167 increase I have in SLV right now and I'm not really looking forward to it.

Thank you.  This is the best explanation I have ever heard of why shorting can be extremely risky for both the trader and the broker.
5851  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: FutureOfMoney - Virtual Currencies Panel - Kenna and Shrem on: April 23, 2012, 09:54:19 PM
Happening right now at the Future of Money conference. Virtual Currencies discussion panel. Guy on the left is Philip Rosedale (creator of Second Life), then Jered Kenna (Tradehill), then Eric Chan (moderator), then Charlie Shrem (BitInstant), then Rebecca Watson (of RadiumOne).

So Bitcoin takes 2 of the 5 speaking spots for the Virtual Currencies panel. You may remember that Ben Milne was supposed to be on this panel as well, but he dropped out of the entire event at the last minute (wonder why?).


https://p.twimg.com/ArMbnbaCEAADQyq.jpg:large

Wouldn't that be 2 of 4... I'm not sure I'd count the moderator as a speaker.  Also, lol @dwolla.  Those assholes suspended my account and won't respond to my emails.  My account was empty and I'm fed up, so I'm not going to bother calling them.  I'm not sure I could be civil.
5852  Economy / Speculation / Re: latest rally started with Diablo3 open beta opening on: April 23, 2012, 09:41:19 PM
...


IMO, having low transaction fees (such as with BTC) would really be a good thing for D2/D3 HC.  Unfortunately, I don't see why BTC would take off for D3 when D2JSP has such a monopoly on D2 trading.  It seems that people would need a very good reason to switch a way from D2JSP when D3 comes out.


D2JSP uses some kind of forum gold?

Yes.   Because it uses forum gold instead of actual money, it makes it harder to switch to another site due to the network effect.

We just need to convince the community not to entrust the operators with monetary supply control, and then Bitcoin can be the solution to operators need for their new community issue.  And by we, I mean you guys, because I've never played Diablo.
5853  Economy / Speculation / Re: #1 most popular Bitcoin Price Forecasts (subscribe here: bitcoinbullbear.com) on: April 23, 2012, 07:47:45 PM
#Bitcoin price forecasts: New, special public review published: Read it here: http://bit.ly/o9l3MV

If the "prices followed the outlined path in an almost textbook-style manner", how come you don't offer the down option until the last chart?  What changed that brought that into view and what kept it off the first two charts?
5854  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!! on: April 23, 2012, 05:47:16 PM
this was really weird. rally from $5.20 to $5.50, then retrace back to $5.20? Looks more like a bubble than a rally. perhaps echo bubble 4. sideways with a slow grind up due to buying pressure seems the most likely near-future forecast.

The dollar is rising, look around you.  Bitcoin is holding up better than most other assets.
5855  Economy / Economics / Re: Any new methods for Debit/Credit card to BTC? on: April 23, 2012, 12:54:06 AM
I found this: http://www.nationalach.com/ but I don't have the time to research them so if someone else wants to and then post their findings I'd appreciate it.

Start here: http://www.nationalach.com/secure-vault-2/no-chargeback-merchant-account/

Not sure how it relates to the topic, but interesting.
5856  Economy / Economics / Re: physical PMs, real estate, food prices these days in Greece on: April 22, 2012, 11:58:27 AM
Greek here. TEMS was a goddamn fail from the beginning. It was created by people who don't understand how economy works for their town. I don't know if it spread all over Greece, I never saw anyone in Athens even mentioning it.

On the other hand, most Greeks are helpless about technology. The younger generation believes that since Facebook exists, there is no reason for the rest of the Web. The older generation thinks that the whole Internet is a creation by pedophiles to rape more children. Now, imagine taking those two groups and telling them to use some "virtual money". They won't even let you finish your sentence. The older generation will immediately think of Bitcoins as the creation of Satanic Merkel and Barroso, while the younger ones are going to ask if you can win Facebook Credits from it.

Most Greeks can't see the Euro as a sinking boat; they see it as an easily repairable machine. Screw that.

i loled, but it is soo true for so many non-greeks too Smiley   i tried to tell some gold bugs about bitcoin and there were like, if you cant hold it you don't own it!

Then show him physical bitcoins...
5857  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Failure is likely on: April 21, 2012, 02:58:49 AM
I'm sitting on bitcoins. Lots of bitcoins. Maybe more bitcoins than most.

I would use these bitcoins for purchases... oh what purchases I would make with these bitcoins of mine...

VERILY I SAY! OH THE SHEER VOLUME OF TRANSACTIONS I WOULD MAKE...

... if the currency were more mature.


I try though, I really do. When I sell things on craigslist I tip my hat to bitcoins, and some people actually email me and inquire about them. I've yet to actually buy or sell anything with bitcoins through that medium though.

Honestly the only thing I've ever bought with  bitcoins is the yubi key for my Mt. Gox account, and I don't think that counts.

I mean, I'd love to buy things off Newegg with bitcoins... that would be super sweet, and I've emailed them about it. But to be fair to them and other large businesses, there is just too much risk, and bitcoins are still volatile. People are going to sit on their coin's till it gets sticky. Thats going to take another 4-8 years. Its not so terribly long if you think about it.

Until then Bitcoins will slowly gain momentum as infrastructure is built and software and features mature until like the breaking of a great wave it hits the mainstream as if from nowhere and people will wish -like I wished- they had heard about bitcoin sooner.










https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade#Gift.2FDebit_Cards

There are newegg giftcards and cards for many other stores available.  Bitcoin will have to grow before the accept it directly, but eventually they will want to know how somebody is selling so many damn giftcards.
5858  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: pirateat40's end game on: April 20, 2012, 10:32:16 PM
In fact, Pirate's original post about his lending business shed more light about what it trully was than it does today.
The ones who remember the exact words posted there will have a better idea, the one's who don't, tough luck, they should exercise their memory skills Wink

So why was it that he decided to delete that original post? Please enlighten us with that information if you know.

I didn't intend to say you were an ignorant person, just ignorant about certain aspects of certain stuff. We all are, ones in some areas, others in other areas.

Are you not "ignorant about certain aspects of certain stuff" or do you know everything there is to know about every topic? Maybe I should click on the highlighted "ignore" link below your name, psytard. (Yes, I read up on you in the alt currency forum.)


It has just become more of a source of information for investors, and less selling to potential investors.
5859  Economy / Speculation / Re: How high the spike will go this time? on: April 20, 2012, 10:31:07 PM
Jinxed!  Tongue

lol
5860  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica Starfish showing on: April 20, 2012, 09:24:37 PM


Showing on both sides now and then.
With all the bull pheromones in the air, I wouldnt be suprised if the starfish would show on the buy button permanently soon.

I don't know... he's paying pretty good interest on USD deposits.
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