If you need bump stocks to shoot coyotes, you need to improve your aim.

The Gun Owners Of America for starters.  Or are there no sane people in the GOA?

https://gunowners.org/goa-on-bump-stocks.htm

Unless you are going to tell me that an AR15 with a bump stock is not the equivalent of an auto?  Stephen Paddock was doing 9 rounds per second with a perfectly legal weapon.  That’s a full auto as far I am concerned.  

He had to keep rotating rifles due to heat sink but the point remains.

Long / short ratio has resumed its climb.  We are now at 1.96 which indicates to me we are ready to start the transition to a bull market.  To be clear, it is not a bull market yet but the pathway is now clear.  

The origin of the term “run amok” comes from the Malay word “amuk”.  It refers to historic incidents in the 1670s when Malaysian workers would run crazy in a marketplace with a machete, killing or injuring a few people before they were brought down by the crowd.

The only difference between Stephen Paddock and a Malaysian rioter in the 17th century is that Stephen had AR15s and bumpstocks instead of a machete. This made Stephen far more efficient.  He was able to kill 57 and injure over 500 without the crowd being able to fight back.  

What is someone with a concealed carry in the concert crowd going to do?  Point their hand gun at the Mandalay Bay which is 500 yards away and start blasting away?  It is an asymmetric situation where arming the crowd with handguns for protection achieves nothing.  

By allowing people to create asymmetric situations like these, you are stopping people from defending themselves.  The crowd cannot defend itself from sustained fire from a distant tower.  You could have a dozen armed members of the NRA at the concert and they would have been useless.

The obvious answer is to remove the toolset that creates the asymmetric situation. Don’t allow tracer rounds. Don’t allow bumpstocks.  Don’t allow gat cranks.  A well regulated milita does not require full auto weapons.  There is a reason why army rifles only allow a maximum of 3 rounds per trigger pull. 

The hard right is so desperate to believe they are not the bad guys that they actively engage in collective self delusion.  4Chan had “irrefutable proof” that the Florida shootings were a false flag operation in less than 24 hours. This is the same group of people that brought you PizzaGate, and many of them still believe PizzaGate is real and ongoing.

You can’t reason with these people. 

As Americans become more educated and less religious, they become more progressive.  Just look at how Salt Lake City has changed over the past 30 years.  It’s all just a matter of time.  You can’t fight demographics. 

You don’t need to repeal the second amendment, you just need the Supreme Court to refine the interpretation.  That’s why the nomination of Supreme Court judges is so heavily contested.

Neo is going to get destroyed (or at least deserves to):  https://mobile.twitter.com/ercwl/status/970294228122263552

You leave your home exchange with X btc.  You re-enter your home exchange with X + Y btc.  You don’t really need to know much more than that to know you are making money.  

Measuring tax is much harder as I am supposed to reconcile BTC gains to USD gains to my local currency gains.  Even harder when you use LTC to transit between exchanges.  A single trade on Bitgrail took 3 positioning trades and then 3 trades to unwind.   Fortunately I got out with all my coins. 

You will be familar with investors suffering recency bias from the GFC.  How do you challenge yourself to ensure you are not suffering recency bias from 2014?

In asking the question, I acknowledge that your calls to date have largely been correct.  I got bull trapped for two years in early March 2014 and so remember it well.

I am assuming a core part of your thesis is that a halvening cycle will only support one manic blow off period.  This would put the next blow off top in December 2022 or December 2023.  

Do you guys feel you are missing out by not being allowed RPGs?  Isn’t that a violation of your second amendment rights?  How are you going to protect yourself against black helicopters?

I don’t buy and hold shitcoins.  5 hours is a long term hold for a shitcoin. On average, I profit on shitcoins.  Sometimes I make mistakes but I cut them the moment they show weakness.  Example:  I follow Charlie Lee on twitter and bought Nano when his tweet came out.  I exited with a 5% profit.  It ended going a lot higher but I’m not ashamed to take a small profit immediately. 

On the other hand I have bitcoin I bought 4 years ago and haven’t touched.  Different asset classes, different trading strategies.  

Is a golden spiral like a golden shower ?

Trying to do tax planning. I have thousands of trades across a dozen exchanges in different countries in all sorts of alts.  I am really struggling to figure it out so good fucking luck to the tax authority.  It would take a CPA 3 months.   I’m just going to have to make a best efforts estimate.  Half the exchanges don’t even export trade records in .csv.  Plus miner fees and dust lost in web wallets etc.  Total mess.  

I can’t read your fib lines. There’s a spider in the way.

We are working the ridge line on Dark forest and doing exceptionally well.  

Long / Shorts ratio slightly down to 1.8. Overall trend is still trending towards bullish but not there quite yet.

Looking at the profile of the most recent dump, it was so fast it had to be mechanical selling.  Clever move to trigger the stop losses when hitting $11,500.  

Yes I wouldn’t take much notice of it.

Tradingview   Go to charting and enter “BTCLONGS / BTCSHORTS” in the top left panel(without the quotes). You might need a pro account but you can get a free trial.

Edit:  BNM mostly beat me to it.