The worst decision for many will be holding when it is time to diversify. Then they will get anxious with their 100% bitcoin holdings when the price goes sour, and sell more than they should, at the exact panic bottom, netting less and shedding terribly many if not all of their bitcoins. It is also emotionally hard to buy back at much higher.

I would not recommend holding more than 60-80% of your wealth in bitcoins. It may look tempting to have more but it is not really worth the risk and as a result you end up having both less fiat and less bitcoins due to the mechanism described above.

I would say it depends on the % of bitcoins in your portfolio. You can have it according to your preference.

If you already have 50% or more of your wealth in bitcoins, better wait and take the risk that it will never go down.

If you have 20% or less, perhaps buying more now is a good idea.

BTC648 to $990 (BS). That was the high before the latest crash.

If we fail to make it, the downtrend scenario raises its ugly head.

However I am not betting on a flashcrash that would instantly take it to the new lows. Quite many seem to have prepared for that. There is bid mass in the <$500 area. Otoh, above 500 the bids have not increased literally at all during the last days' rise.

I don't know what to make of this historically low volume  Last time BS had such low weekly volume was right at $130 before going UP.

As outlined in the OP, deletion may happen if:

double bottoms = unrelated pictures
ad hominem = personal attacks
trolling = disturbing the conversation
low level comments = not enough novel content (first post is ok to be short, because that way you bookmark the thread).

If you disagree with something, you need to challenge the content (not the writer) of the post, and do it in the same level of depth as the challenged content. It is highly appreciated to write a thought-out piece refuting everything I say. It is not OK to say that "$500 will never happen and RP is stupid".

Surprised: Yes. In a sense that I would have given it <50% probability (and therefore bet against it).

Reemergence of bull market: this requires a lengthier explanation which is based on the trendline model.

The trend is adjusting itself all the time, but it already has 5 years of data, which means that the new datapoints do not change it much. I have high confidence on the predictive ability of the trend, because I believe it tells us the market-tested maximum increase rate based on infrastructure and psychological factors mainly. According to the trend, we will reach $1M in 12/2016. It is quite breathtaking speed actually.

A
Ultimate definition for a bull market is that the trendline will never be revisited. The rate of growth of bitcoin economy would have changed, which means that the trendline should be recalculated with only the new data (since 1.1.2013 for example). The new booms and busts would conform to the steeper trend and not the old (which did call the bottom in 2011, and was very good in 2013). This would mean that $1M is reached sooner than 12/2016.

B1
Intermediate1 bull market is something that would now have started, and will run its course and crash to the trendline and below sometime so far in the future that it would have been better to buy now. Such as 2011 before the bubble. This will of course affect the trendline slope to the upside, since so long time would have been spent significantly above it.

B2
Intermediate2 bull market means that we make the new ATH and go beyond, but in the aftermath visit the trendline and below such that it is advantageous to wait considering the risks and such (going below $800). The trend would be pretty much intact in this scenario. (According to the trend, we would close the year 2014 at $6,356, which means that the likely price is between $3k-$13k.)

C
Bull market is not resumed, and we will turn down before making an ATH. Likely by the end of March, there will be an event allowing purchase at $300-$400 for the nimble, and the general consensus price will be at $500s, making this price available for all.

I would currently give the odds:
A = 15%
B1 = 20%
B2 = 25%
C = 40%.

Note that there will probably be flashcrashes in the way, which gives entry points to those who believe in the bull market but don't want to commit all now.

Wine and Cigars are on the House.

There is again time to update the figures. The methodology in OP is quite good, and this time I think we could actually quantify how many users the different channels bring and how large is the overlap.

- Count the number of users from all exchanges and subtract the overlap
- Count the number of addresses used and their balances
- Compare the figures and estimate number of users
- Check known large holders and add their holdings, add other 10k+ holdings according to power law model
- Fit the cohorts according to the distribution model

Update coming soon!

I will base the updates in the more accurate trendline which is based on daily figures.

Here.


It will continue to increase at about the established rate (double every 99 days on average) until we are there. So if we estimate that Bitcoin will totally replace the current system and reach 100 trillion market cap, it is trending to happen about October 2017. Considering that there will likely be a huge readjustment before universal adoption, the actual long term value (or higher) will be reached ahead of the trend. Even now we are ahead of the trend!

Of course it is better to sell continuously. The reason why initially a doubling was chosen for selling point is that it is easier to grasp for people who are not proficient in math.

+1. Howbout if somebody older than me would actually take the effort to research into the early days. I was not here then. I think a few hours of actual work (instead of posting) would take us far!

The average trend of 12.4x per year may indeed be the magic number that captures the highest possible growth rate that takes into account all the factors above. It has hardly changed at all during the last 12 months.

My general comment re:the trendlines starting in 11/2011 is that the choice of starting point is arbitrary, which distorts the trend.

A simple metric would be to divide the bitcoin market cap by the number of users. Anybody care to estimate the monthly number of users some time back? (I have a thread estimating the ongoing development)

My timeframe is longer. Bitcoin has been around for 5 years, and it has always been a terrific enlightenment for those who have been ripe for it. The knowledge about bitcoin has grown exponentially and investment into it has grown exponentially. I expect this to continue and every year be on average 12 times more glorious (as it has been), until everybody uses bitcoin (which will happen in 2016-17 at this rate). Everything that has happened since 2009 is captured by the trend and its variations, and will be.

There has been some regularities in the growth that I have researched, some of it is published, some not. I believe knowing them gives an edge in trading, and so far it has proven to be good. I have several million dollars of my own money that I could use to purchase bitcoins but choose not to. Not at this price. I am taking a large, calculated risk, with entry points set according to mathematical model for the rest of the year. I even gave the average sell price a few posts ago. Now there is no need to comment that I am doing bad every time the price rises $10. You could as well post about how good I am doing for the reason that I always have more bitcoins than fiat anyway  

So, after smoking the best the world has to offer, I again feel that taking a break from this thread is in order.

See you at $500. And don't fall in the bull trap

Depends on the timeframe. Personally I expect the final capitulation in Feb +/- 1 month, so one week does not matter much. Perhaps there should be a different thread for people who trade on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe. Or less slander. If March passes without hitting $400, then the chances of seeing it again are slim.

It was 9.12.2013 that I made a new trading plan based on a "secular" bear market (in Bitcoin context something that lasts at least a month). Before that I had kept the position quite constant for a few days, doing some profitable arbitrage between China/BS.

First I drew a downtrend from the high of 30.11. and aimed to sell when we were above the trend. This resulted in a whole week of selling until 15.12. Then as it started to look that it could tip over any moment, I tried to bet with Goat and issued the now-famous prediction that it would crash to 450. It did crash, but my mistake was to underestimate the magnitude of the crash. I bought a large portion back at 670 (BS) when it was stabilizing. Then next day it crashed some more, resulting in a practical jackpot (as you can see above).

Then I was a little bit too eager to sell, correctly calling the local tops in 625 and 666 but failing to sell in the dips (because of the experiences of the previous one). Now it has crept higher, and I have sold more, bringing the average sell price rather close to what the price is now. This trade is for the long haul, because there are a myriad of events that can bring the exchange rate to 300-400 and 400-500 would happen even without anything special. What I cannot know is the exact timing. Now I feel a similarity to 15.12. in many indicators, and will be the first to sell more when the ball starts rolling.

As you should understand by now, by checking how long it takes for me to enter and exit a trade (from the valuable info I posted which - properly analyzed - would greatly boost your skills also), I cannot offer such a service which wakes up all small traders at the instant I make a move  

Besides I don't understand this consultant thing, I haven't sold such services for years really, nor intend to. All the contribution here is free and buyer beware, as with everybody else's. I honestly believe that people should pay more attention to the opinions of successful people, and have taken some provocations as opportunities to show proof of the success. This is a second time (only) that I have posted a complete record of trades in the ballpark of BTC1k, and will remain so. Keep your apology if you want, and believe it will earn you better karma. I will not put you on ignore, because I like your posts, but I will kindly ask you to ignore me as you seemingly cannot take my facts as they are and develop a conversation based on them.

If anyone wonders why my post quality is so low in this thread, it is not because of my lack of willingness to contribute, it is because mainly the fools reply to my posts and the smart people do not pick the ball.

In my dictionary "pro"="professional"= somebody who does it for the living, so not necessary good, but in the case of trader, he has to make some additional value compared to b&h. I aim to gain several thousand bitcoins in the period between my initial bearish call in 19.11.2013 and the final capitulation sometime next year by trading full time.


ok.. here are all the trades in that Mt.Gox account that sum up to the figures presented in the above post:

DATE    BTC   USD/BTC   USD
         
13.12.2013 23:16   -8,322   919,89   7 655,75
13.12.2013 23:22   -22,232   919,89   20 451,16
13.12.2013 23:22   -19,445   919,89   17 887,59
13.12.2013 23:56   -10,132   949,00   9 615,37
13.12.2013 23:56   -10,402   949,00   9 871,04
13.12.2013 23:57   -15,445   949,00   14 657,62
13.12.2013 23:59   -12,231   949,00   11 607,08
13.12.2013 23:59   -0,010   949,00   9,59
15.12.2013 16:07   -50,000   899,80   44 990,00
15.12.2013 18:49   -0,881   895,00   788,91
15.12.2013 18:50   -10,000   895,00   8 950,00
15.12.2013 18:51   -0,402   895,00   359,95
15.12.2013 18:52   -0,010   895,00   8,95
15.12.2013 18:52   -0,049   895,00   43,42
15.12.2013 18:56   -6,133   895,00   5 489,33
15.12.2013 19:02   -7,525   895,00   6 734,43
15.12.2013 19:07   -2,036   897,50   1 827,57
15.12.2013 19:08   -0,300   897,50   268,91
15.12.2013 19:16   -22,664   897,50   20 341,01
15.12.2013 23:19   -50,000   924,00   46 200,00
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,957   852,00   814,99
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,200   852,00   170,40
16.12.2013 10:42   -1,155   851,22   983,24
16.12.2013 10:42   -2,000   851,22   1 702,44
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,034   851,14   28,84
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,097   851,11   82,65
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,500   851,10   425,55
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,010   851,07   8,51
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,200   851,05   170,21
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,075   851,03   63,44
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,881   851,02   750,00
16.12.2013 10:42   -2,100   851,01   1 787,12
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,235   851,00   200,00
16.12.2013 10:42   -3,500   851,00   2 978,50
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,097   851,00   82,50
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,200   851,00   170,20
16.12.2013 10:42   -0,890   851,00   757,39
16.12.2013 10:42   -6,870   851,00   5 845,98
16.12.2013 10:45   -4,719   860,00   4 058,64
16.12.2013 10:54   -1,686   860,00   1 449,62
16.12.2013 10:54   -0,044   860,00   37,72
16.12.2013 10:54   -0,600   860,00   516,00
16.12.2013 10:54   -4,173   860,00   3 588,83
16.12.2013 10:55   -2,946   860,00   2 533,15
16.12.2013 10:55   -4,180   860,00   3 594,80
16.12.2013 10:55   -3,944   860,00   3 392,22
16.12.2013 11:23   -4,747   883,00   4 192,00
16.12.2013 11:23   -0,010   883,00   8,83
16.12.2013 11:23   -4,683   883,00   4 134,97
16.12.2013 11:23   -0,010   883,00   8,83
16.12.2013 11:24   -2,879   883,00   2 541,78
16.12.2013 11:24   -0,974   883,00   860,27
16.12.2013 11:27   -6,697   883,00   5 913,33
16.12.2013 16:05   -6,630   842,00   5 582,43
16.12.2013 16:09   -0,020   837,00   16,74
16.12.2013 16:11   -8,149   837,00   6 820,83
16.12.2013 16:11   -0,190   837,00   159,03
16.12.2013 16:12   -1,000   837,00   837,00
16.12.2013 16:13   -0,200   837,00   167,40
16.12.2013 16:13   -0,054   837,00   44,90
16.12.2013 16:15   -0,012   836,00   10,29
16.12.2013 16:15   -0,108   836,00   90,25
16.12.2013 16:16   -19,880   836,00   16 619,46
16.12.2013 16:16   -13,370   842,00   11 257,57
16.12.2013 16:22   -0,072   841,97   60,74
16.12.2013 16:25   -1,814   839,80   1 523,60
16.12.2013 16:27   -8,115   839,80   6 815,38
16.12.2013 16:28   -0,070   839,80   59,02
16.12.2013 16:34   -10,000   839,88   8 398,80
16.12.2013 16:40   -0,010   836,00   8,36
16.12.2013 16:40   -6,996   836,00   5 848,53
16.12.2013 16:50   -9,800   835,00   8 183,00
16.12.2013 16:50   -2,994   836,00   2 503,11
16.12.2013 19:45   0,252   726,00   -182,75
16.12.2013 19:45   0,030   726,00   -21,78
16.12.2013 19:45   6,136   726,00   -4 454,44
16.12.2013 19:45   13,583   726,00   -9 861,03
17.12.2013 13:06   25,000   712,00   -17 800,00
18.12.2013 4:50   30,000   675,00   -20 250,00
18.12.2013 5:39   50,000   651,00   -32 550,00
18.12.2013 6:01   50,000   625,50   -31 275,00
18.12.2013 6:19   50,000   606,00   -30 300,00
18.12.2013 6:19   50,000   601,00   -30 050,00
18.12.2013 7:20   23,306   570,00   -13 284,53
18.12.2013 7:20   20,000   570,00   -11 400,00
18.12.2013 7:20   0,020   570,00   -11,40
18.12.2013 7:20   2,038   570,00   -1 161,49
18.12.2013 7:21   0,100   570,00   -57,00
18.12.2013 7:21   4,536   570,00   -2 585,58
18.12.2013 8:09   22,137   552,00   -12 219,73
18.12.2013 8:09   0,084   552,00   -46,19
18.12.2013 8:09   25,097   552,00   -13 853,77
18.12.2013 8:09   1,000   552,00   -552,00
18.12.2013 8:09   0,363   552,00   -200,55
18.12.2013 8:09   0,238   552,00   -131,12
18.12.2013 8:10   1,081   552,00   -596,65
18.12.2013 8:17   19,674   555,01   -10 919,40
18.12.2013 8:18   8,881   558,01   -4 955,61
18.12.2013 8:18   21,119   558,01   -11 784,69
18.12.2013 8:18   10,326   555,01   -5 730,90
18.12.2013 8:20   30,000   555,01   -16 650,30
18.12.2013 8:20   30,000   550,97   -16 529,10
18.12.2013 8:31   11,000   528,10   -5 809,10
18.12.2013 8:31   2,000   528,10   -1 056,20
18.12.2013 8:32   7,000   528,10   -3 696,70
18.12.2013 10:19   20,000   494,00   -9 880,00
18.12.2013 10:58   0,526   471,11   -247,89
18.12.2013 10:58   19,474   471,11   -9 174,31
18.12.2013 11:01   20,000   457,11   -9 142,20
19.12.2013 10:56   -13,370   666,00   8 904,42
19.12.2013 10:56   -36,045   670,00   24 150,27
19.12.2013 10:56   -2,000   670,00   1 340,00
19.12.2013 10:56   -1,049   670,00   702,91
19.12.2013 10:56   -0,056   670,00   37,52
19.12.2013 10:56   -0,025   670,00   16,73
19.12.2013 10:57   -9,645   670,00   6 462,05
19.12.2013 10:57   -0,010   670,00   6,70
19.12.2013 10:57   -8,108   670,00   5 432,39
19.12.2013 10:57   -1,000   670,00   670,00
19.12.2013 10:57   -5,000   670,00   3 350,00
19.12.2013 10:57   -1,000   670,00   670,00
19.12.2013 10:58   -1,000   670,00   670,00
19.12.2013 10:58   -8,090   670,00   5 420,17
19.12.2013 10:58   -2,000   670,00   1 340,00
19.12.2013 10:59   -1,972   670,00   1 321,27
19.12.2013 11:11   -69,651   680,00   47 362,56
19.12.2013 11:11   -5,198   680,00   3 534,59
19.12.2013 11:12   -0,118   680,00   80,10
19.12.2013 11:12   -2,033   680,00   1 382,74
19.12.2013 11:40   -7,028   690,00   4 849,52
19.12.2013 11:40   -12,400   690,00   8 556,00
19.12.2013 11:47   -57,572   690,00   39 724,48
19.12.2013 11:52   -77,000   700,00   53 900,00
19.12.2013 11:54   -6,561   710,00   4 658,52
19.12.2013 11:54   -0,150   710,00   106,50
19.12.2013 11:54   -12,888   710,00   9 150,70
19.12.2013 11:54   -20,000   710,00   14 200,00
19.12.2013 11:54   -21,711   710,00   15 414,97
19.12.2013 11:54   -0,200   710,00   142,00
19.12.2013 11:54   -4,582   710,00   3 253,53
19.12.2013 11:54   -1,000   710,00   710,00
19.12.2013 11:55   -9,907   710,00   7 033,78
19.12.2013 23:08   -22,315   720,00   16 066,90
19.12.2013 23:08   -54,685   720,00   39 373,10
19.12.2013 23:12   -77,000   730,00   56 210,00
19.12.2013 23:18   -77,000   740,00   56 980,00
20.12.2013 4:42   -77,000   750,00   57 750,00
20.12.2013 5:31   -7,293   760,00   5 542,34
20.12.2013 5:31   -0,062   760,00   47,02
20.12.2013 5:31   -58,366   760,00   44 358,48
26.12.2013 17:38   -100,000   809,98   80 998,00
26.12.2013 19:12   -2,853   819,98   2 339,64
26.12.2013 19:12   -1,788   819,98   1 466,25
26.12.2013 19:12   -95,359   819,98   78 192,11



Well, that I do not require even from my employees...



Being full time does not mean to trade daily. I can quite well feed my family with a couple of trades per year, provided that they are (mostly) right. That is why I am so fascinated about the trendline, it is like an invisible hand that turns the probabilities in your favor by presenting a low risk exit point. Then just adjust the buyback to fit your risk/reward preference. I never sell a majority of the coins so I can in the extreme case wait forever the buyback. Of course I would rather that it come before March as I calculated, estimated, predicted and hope.

Nice, congrats!


ok..

Much appreciated, thank you.

Do you think DOGE network is secure now?