Being a Bayesian means not reasoning from priors not requested in the question.
Okay - thanks for that (had never heard the expression before) - overall I hope the OP is not getting too worried that his bitcoins are not safe even after 6 confirmations but I do believe that it is at least important to try and explain clearly how the system works so people don't get too "shocked" if something occurred that they had been told was "less likely than the end of the sun" (for this reason I would never recommend anyone to invest more in bitcoins than they are prepared to lose completely).
OP - if I've confused you further then sorry and feel free to ask for clarification.