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5961

Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Mining difficulty rate!!

on: May 26, 2011, 08:07:25 PM

Quote from: kjj on May 26, 2011, 07:58:26 PM Notice how there are wild swings in the 1 day estimate after the difficulty increases? Basically, those aren't real. They show up because the estimation formula doesn't have enough data to smooth out short term variance. Thanks for the clarification. The point still remains that the Thashs/s and difficulty are going up exponentially and the dwindling supply of video cards seems to be the only thing that will slow down the growth rate short term.

5962

Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Mining difficulty rate!!

on: May 26, 2011, 07:38:04 PM

Are you saying the sipa chart is wrong? What is wrong with the numbers? They are all from reputable sources AFAIK.

5963

Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Mining difficulty rate!!

on: May 26, 2011, 07:24:12 PM

Check out the latest numbers: Network: 6.996 Thashs/s !! Current difficulty: 434,883 Next difficulty in 2010 blocks: 1,102,949 !! Also the largest growth was in the "other" category (not any one coop). In fact deepbit is now less than 25% and could be as low a 20%! Sources: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ and http://bitcoinwatch.com/ Wild, check out this chart: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

5964

Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Mining difficulty rate!!

on: May 24, 2011, 06:27:07 PM

The only "bright spot" on the horizon is that it appears the world is running out of high end video cards (until they make some more).

5965

Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Mining difficulty rate!!

on: May 24, 2011, 06:05:52 PM

Here are some more numbers to ponder...

Code:

  Block            Ghashs/s  Network
 Number Difficulty   to win Thashs/s
------- ---------- -------- --------
114,912     68,978      494   0.5174
116,928     82,346      589   0.8061
118,944     92,348      661   0.6912
120,960    109,670      785   0.9677
122,976    157,416    1,127   1.4728
124,992    244,112    1,747   2.9360
next?      400,000    2,863   3.5692
next?      500,000    3,579   4.4615
?          600,000    4,295   5.3538
?          700,000    5,011   6.2461
?          800,000    5,727   7.1384
?          900,000    6,443   8.0307
?        1,000,000    7,158   8.9230

The Ghashs/s to win listed in this table does not get you a win. It only gets you into the ballpark where you should be able to win some blocks.

Discouraging to me anyway.

5966

Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Mining difficulty rate!!

on: May 24, 2011, 06:48:35 AM

I believe these numbers are correct: Code: Difficulty Average to win Rise from previous Previous: 157,416.40 1.13 Ghashes/s Current: 244,112.48 1.75 Ghashes/s 55.07% Next (est): 393,849.00 2.82 Ghashes/s 61.34% If you are interested I got my raw historical data from here http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash and the estimate next difficulty here: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ (at the top of the page - will happen in 789 more blocks as of the time of this post) Update: Latest estimate is 394,778 in 768 more blocks. You can always look here http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ to see the latest estimate. It does look like it may exceed 400,000 by the time it happens.

5967

Bitcoin / Mining / Re: POLL: Are you still buying mining equipment?

on: May 24, 2011, 06:09:15 AM

This is the way I am trying to answer this question for myself: Todays network hash rate is estimated at about 3.5 Thashs/s. So if I build a hot 3.5 Ghashs/s system that would be exacly 0.1% of the network. Since the entire system produces about $50,000 per day at the current price of $7 per BTC my share should average out to about $50 per day. Assuming that the average rate of growth in the value of the BTC matches the average rate of growth of the network then I will continue to average about $50 per day until 2013. $50 per day is about $18,000 per year. Can I build a 3.5 Ghash/s system for less than $18,000? Yes. If the above assumption holds is it worth doing? Yes. Will the above growth rate assumption hold. That is the real question here.

5968

Bitcoin / Mining / Re: POLL: Are you still buying mining equipment?

on: May 24, 2011, 04:50:48 AM

Before you answer the poll here is something to think about. I believe these numbers are correct: Code: Difficulty Average to win Rise from previous Previous: 157,416.40 1.13 Ghashes/s Current: 244,112.48 1.75 Ghashes/s 55.07% Next (est): 393,849.00 2.82 Ghashes/s 61.34% If you are interested I got my raw historical data from here http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash and the estimate next difficulty here: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ (at the top of the page - will happen in 789 more blocks as of the time of this post)

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