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5961  Economy / Economics / Re: What will you do in 2030? on: December 17, 2018, 06:12:04 PM
I think before long there will have to be some sort of incentive in most of Europe for people to have children.

Pay fair wages in secure jobs. Make property affordable.

Since the powers that be have no interest in that, and indeed they're actively incentivised to reduce wages, decrease security and make a roof less affordable, then the decline is inevitable.

They'll eventually pay a massive price for that, and they're starting to now with all the political upheaval, but the people who are doing it now will be dead or counting their money by then so they won't care.
5962  Economy / Speculation / Re: Interesting reads on future of Bitcoin price on: December 17, 2018, 06:07:42 PM
I wonder to what degree people are aware that bitcoin is such an alternative? I guess they are not really aware. It is a huge space that one day bitcoin could potentially disrupt.

I don't think it's going to make many inroads into that until the need to move in and out of fiat is reduced.

Crypto/fiat interactions are pretty much the only stick governments have to wield and they're going to get ever more uptight about it, way more so than conventional banking. If a bank or broker asked for the shit Bitstamp do they'd be publicly shamed.

No one will want to put their child slavery profits into BTC if they find it's effectively trapped in there with no way of converting it.
5963  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today is 365 days since the last ATH on: December 17, 2018, 05:57:11 PM
I am talking about determining more or less the moment in which the given stage changes.

It's never clear until it's firmly in the rear view mirror which is why so many people miss it and finish up bitter and broken.

All anyone can say is that 80% down is a better deal than 50% down if you believe it'll go back up again.

2-3 months isn't enough time to be certain about anything. The $6-6500 range stuck around long enough for people to get comfortable and then it absolutely shat straight through it.
5964  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: As we all know, the price of the coin can heavily depend on the news. on: December 17, 2018, 05:22:55 PM
Traditionall, it is news that drives the market.  

Can you point us to some actual examples?

It looks far more to me like natural cycles of psychology playing out that can't be turned by news. It does count on occasion for flash crashes and so on. They don't break trends though.
5965  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If you were in charge of Bitcoin 2.0 what would you change? on: December 17, 2018, 05:02:33 PM
Even after lightning network, Bitcoin is slow compared to other cryptos. So I would change block times, transaction fees and transaction throughput.

A lot of the time that's because they're less secure and less stressed.

I'd be more inclined to buy into all of these claims once they'd been maxed out for months without buckling while countless vultures circled. They may look rather less convincing then.

And you can't really get any faster than a lightning network. The question is how usable it's going to be and how many people use it.
5966  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Blockchain Transparency Report - Wash trading by exchanges is rife on: December 17, 2018, 04:37:57 PM
Surprised Bithumb's not mentioned anywhere. Didn't they supposedly do some token airdrop (generated by trading) resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars of wash trading a few months back?

Brief glimpse at the chart doesn't make sense... 100% real trading at Binance and Bitfinex? That's laughable. Like you said, methodology referenced but not really detailed. Like most blockchain "studies" coming out, except for the recent Cambridge one, severely lacking in sound scientific rigour.

I'm assuming the report is pointing towards exchanges themselves doing the wash trading to justify their listing fees and look cool, but that's not totally clear.

On Bithumb at present Bitcoin Gold has 15x more volume against the Won than, er, Bitcoin. Then again Korean traders are stupid and mindless and would trade an old lady's lump of phlegm if it was placed in front of them. Even so that makes little sense.

5967  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today is 365 days since the last ATH on: December 17, 2018, 04:26:21 PM
People always seem to forget the bit between the end of the bear market and the start of any bullishness. That may well be the longest most dispiriting period. And that's when most people give up or businesses go bust as interest dwindles massively.

The downward slope is always filled with delusion and hope. We've had a million bottoms called which means people were still paying close attention. Once they drift away it'll mean the cycle is complete and then it's no man's land until it picks up again
5968  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: As we all know, the price of the coin can heavily depend on the news. on: December 17, 2018, 03:30:17 PM
The trend is way more important than the news. If things are dying as they are now no amount of 'good' news will turn something around. When things are explosive news is an excuse to be more explosive, not the cause.

The only news really worth paying attention to is bad news for short term moves. People are so twitchy they'll crater themselves. Then it's back to whatever the trend is.
5969  Economy / Speculation / Re: Which Coins will be the top 10 on market cap in 2019? on: December 17, 2018, 03:03:40 PM
Um, that's not how stablecoins work. Where is going to soar to? From $0.99 to $1.01?

Regardless, unless there has been some huge development in the last week or so I am unaware of, USDT are still refusing an external audit and therefore there is absolutely zero proof that they are actually backed up 1:1 with USD as they claim.

I don't really understand why any stablecoin is listed on there. They should have a separate section for people who are interested in their circulation and volumes. I regard them as centralised utilities in the main.
5970  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Anyone here that experience a long bear market besides this one? on: December 17, 2018, 02:37:50 PM
I remember that every day the only thing that I could think of was how lucky I am that price is coming down so I can buy more bitcoin with that extra fiat that I get my hands on every couple of weeks and I have been buying bitcoin ever since on the same intervals at different price levels to accumulate more before the big bang happens.

You jammy git. I started just before the late 2013 bubble and was all out of money by early/mid 2014 or so so was in for a long wait before it got back in the black. Anyone who arrived after the start of 2015 has basically had a dream ride up towards heaven even to this point, massively more so if they'd gotten into certain alts too.
5971  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-12-13] ‘Best Opportunity Of The Year’ to Buy Bitcoin, Says Weiss Ratings on: December 17, 2018, 01:10:14 PM
if an asset is losing value , it is better to find the bottom first
we clearly haven't found one and buying now is good if you do not care to lose several hundreds and plan to HODL anyways

The amount of people who successfully buy the absolute bottom approximates the number who sell the absolute top - perhaps 0.00001% of people who've ever traded.

People who settle on a price that is good enough do better than those who wait forever and get left behind convinced their target will eventually hit. We see that here constantly.
5972  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Anyone here that experience a long bear market besides this one? on: December 17, 2018, 12:48:50 PM
Yes. I sat through the entire previous one.

I don't remember any feeling that 'yes, this is now over'. Life returned in a fairly subtle manner.

The really disheartening bit, the utterly dead sideways section after the ultimate low, hasn't occurred yet and that's the one that'll test you. Right now traders can make plenty of money going down. When that's gone things will seem stunningly dull.

Of course the deadest section isn't a bear market. It's a non market.

The one difference compared to the previous one is that in 2014/15 it still felt possible that BTC would dwindle to nothing out of sheer disinterest. I don't believe that's the case any more.
5973  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-12-10] Bear Market Has Even Led $15 Billion Bitmain to Lay Off Employees on: December 17, 2018, 12:05:43 PM
i've heard this as well, but i'm skeptical. the story was broken by coingeek.com, who cited unnamed sources. any other coverage of the story just parrots the coingeek article.

Long running thread here - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5063475.0

As you say all the 'sources' are either hopelessly compromised from the off or are solitary Twitter accounts with absolutely nothing to back their conjecture up.
5974  Economy / Speculation / Re: Which Coins will be the top 10 on market cap in 2019? on: December 17, 2018, 03:19:40 AM
It's really amazing how rapidly the list turns into absolute shit, even the top 20. It's like literally nothing has been learnt, and it hasn't.

Of that list I can't see EOS lasting. All it has is its wash trading. Other than that it seems like a shit and broken database. And I truly hope the Bcashes bugger off but that's doubtful.

I will vote for NEM returning to the top 10 even though I'm biased. It's ticking away. It works. It's funded. It's been top 5 in the past. New upgrades are on the way and new leadership is in place.

XMR has more virtues than coins currently above it too.

If we return to total deadness anything built on hype is going to fade badly. What'll be left is the solid old stagers that didn't promise the world. They just chose to keep on chugging.
5975  Economy / Economics / Re: What will you do in 2030? on: December 17, 2018, 02:08:08 AM
By then I hope to be on an island somewhere with software that blocks all media coverage installed in my mind, or eyes. I'll leave the rest of the world to get on with eating itself while I rock back and forth watching the water lapping the rocks.

That's contingent on BTC staying alive and successful. If it isn't then I'll be selling my saggy, fuzzy old behind for a quid a ride underneath a railway bridge somewhere.

By the time I'm proper old I'll be amazed if there's a state pension of any sort. It's a ponzi and one that's running out of steam.

Brazil is the one to watch regarding this. Their pension system is staggeringly generous and I've no idea how they'll keep that going for ten more years, let alone beyond - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/25/world/americas/brazil-pension-michel-temer.html
5976  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: China's plan to sideline bitcoin on: December 17, 2018, 01:52:26 AM
@gentlemand. However, I reckon the existence of restrictive bankcoins will also give more reasons for bitcoin and other open cryptocoins to exist. We should support chinacoin's development hehehe!

That's a bit selfish of us. Everything possible should be done to resist them. I don't think enough people can be bothered to think through the implications. Even in 'free' countries people are fucked by their credit scores. When someone can trace every penny of your expenditure things will get a whole lot more alarming.
5977  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: China's plan to sideline bitcoin on: December 17, 2018, 01:30:03 AM
I reckon the People's Bank of China's does not appear to understand what the cryptospace is if their plan to sideline bitcoin is to issue a restrictive digital form of fiat. It will only be another token pegged to fiat that is similar to USDT. However, more dangerous.

And every other dunderhead poster here thinks the same thing. The number of threads that mention 'bankcoin will KILL Bitcoin' when all it will be is an infintely more toxic version of what there is already.

Combine China's social credit with this and they will have an absolute stranglehold over every conceivable aspect of everyone's lives. The 'enemies of the state' will find life totally unliveable.

In this scenario BTC would be a potential out, but even then if all the economy is Chinacoin and any traceable interaction between that and BTC happens then there goes the social rating of anyone who touches that too. It's going to be nightmarish and it's only just warming up.
5978  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-12-14]Samsung Motivated to Launch Crypto Cold Wallet in Upcoming Galaxy S1 on: December 16, 2018, 11:04:24 PM
Samsung has already make and conducted some studues about cryptocurrency. They even had made some good statements regarding on accepting bitcoin as a payment option for the users that would like to purchase their smartphone/android phones. Probabky they had seen that in joining cryptocurrency they can relatively earn more by introducing their products in this multi billion system of cryptocurrency.

That 'Samsung stores accepting crypto' tale was a few franchises in Estonia or something that got told to shut up about it pretty rapidly. As ever it was nothing to do with Samsung themselves.

What is undeniable is Samsung's entry into ASIC chip manufacture. However that's not going to have much to do with their belief in crypto, rather their belief in getting paid to do a job for someone.

5979  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If you were in charge of Bitcoin 2.0 what would you change? on: December 16, 2018, 10:45:31 PM
I'd look to make the protocol scaleable and then LOCK it so that no dev can ruin it in the future.
This will in turn prevent the need to fork when devs become corrupt

This whole thing exists because it's a group effort. That works both ways. It stops the shit from being injected. It allows the best improvements to be integrated provided there's enough agreement. It also allows life saving fixes when they are unearthed.

If it could be 'locked' then no one would touch it. That implies control and centralisation, exactly not what people are looking for.
5980  Economy / Collectibles / Re: 5BTC casacius coin 2012 on: December 16, 2018, 10:43:01 PM
You're better off moving it to the collectibles section here - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=217.0

Plus adding photos with your username and whether you're willing to use escrow services. Most people won't touch a sale without it.
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