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61  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: October 27, 2022, 06:02:39 PM
The main reason why Messi can leave PSG is age - his influence is already being felt and even though in Ligue 1 PSG can afford to play not at the maximum/have the optimal composition, in the Champions League it is already too dangerous. The second reason is the salary - Messi receives 41 million a year and this is a significant part of PSG's salary fund. Maybe if Argentina does well in the World Cup, Messi leaves PSG for MLS at the end of the season and thus "leaves at the top" from European football.
Messi had a first season in PSG very bad but in this season, the second season there, he has started to show his importance. We saw that in matches without Messi, PSG had issues to create opportunities and find goals. With Messi, their attacking system works more smoothly and more unpredictable for opponents. Messi scored more goals in this season but his bigger contribution is from key passes and assists to other players.

I feel that Messi does not want to return to Barcelona after all of bad drama he received years ago and after the recent drama against Pique as well as Busquet. Therefore, if PSG want to resign a new contract with Messi, I believe he will be ready to sign it. I also believe that it would very likely to happen as it will be good for both Messi and PSG. They can resign a new contract which last 2 more years.

Also important, Messi will retire from his national team after the World Cup so that he will fully focus on his club for last years of his career.

Messi this season is much better than last season, but still PSG have such ambitions that they need not just good players in every position, but the best of the best. Plus, if you think about the prospects and take into account Messi's big salary, I think that PSG will find better options. If we talk about marketing noise and brand promotion, then the new generation has already taken over the media space. I think everyone sees that now all the hype is going on around new stars - Haaland and Mbappe, and the first one is still being discussed only in terms of professional qualities, and the second has already managed to get into various scandals and become famous even outside of football.
62  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA 2022 world cup on: October 27, 2022, 05:54:16 PM
~snip~
Previously, such a historical pattern was with the European Championship, there were no exceptions, but in 2008 and 2012 Spain broke the pattern. So I wouldn't rely on history when betting - in fact there is no correlation that would prevent the previous champion from repeating its success. I would even say that the champion (the team cannot accidentally become the champion in the vast majority of cases) has more chances, since it was already the strongest.

Yeah, historical data is a bit unreliable. For example, Italy didn't qualify for this world cup, but the last time that happened was in 1958. Most people would have assumed Italy would qualify and make a bet that shows that.

On the other hand, Brazil has qualified for every single world cup, and they qualified for this one unbeaten. History does have some weight, I would say Brazil is one of the best teams in the world cup.

But then again, from time to time the unexpected might happen. That's partly why football is so entertaining. Even the best team can lose to the worst team because of one mistake. You don't see that in some other sports in which one mistake doesn't matter too much.

Looks like your data is a bit out of date ;-) Check out how Italy performed at the World Cup 2018 and you will be surprised. But by the way, this is also a good example - after all, Italy consistently got into the finals of the World Cup and no one could have imagined that in 18 and 22 years it would collapse. And obviously this had nothing to do with the quality of the game of the Italian national team - in 2020 they became European champions and then in 2021 they took third place in the League of Nations. It turns out that this result was completely illogical and unpredictable, but it happened as many as two times in a row.
63  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Will This Habit Lead You To Chase Your Losses And Addictive To Gambling on: October 27, 2022, 05:45:21 PM
Personally, I don't see the point in sharing winnings posts on social networks, unless the person has a personal gambling channel where he helps to understand gambling, communicates with the community and shares ideas, reviews, etc. And if a person publishes his winnings just for self-affirmation in the eyes of the public, it certainly does not make any sense (at least for me). Besides, such behavior carries some risks for underage users of social networks.

People's behavior is often irrational - someone buys a watch/car on credit that he cannot afford in order to brag to his friends, someone draws attention to themselves in a different way. Apparently, those who publish their bets (wins or losses) have found their niche and in general this is understandable - if they are involved in gambling, then this topic is of interest to them and it is natural that they will make publications in this area.
For example, I don’t like some things, but I understand people who are fond of them, I remember that a couple of years ago some celebrity was exposed who had a “secret” account where she published methods for making onion rings. Sounds pretty weird to me but I can understand it.
64  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2022/23 Season on: October 26, 2022, 09:21:30 AM
I'm surprised that tomorrow's games Inter - Victoria and Barcelona - Bayern will be held at different times. If Inter wins, Barcelona will automatically go to the Europa League, regardless of the result of the game with Bayern. It turns out that Barcelona will know their fate in advance (if Inter wins) and this can hit their morale and motivation hard.
I think that with this outcome, the game Barcelona - Bayern (which has already taken first place in advance) turns into a friendly one. I think that this will not suit anyone who likes to watch uncompromising football.
The match in Group C is getting more and more interesting to watch, where Xavi Hernandez's squad must fight even harder to advance to the next round, although that hope is determined by Inter's match against Viktoria Plzen.
Xavi's team is more pressured than Bayern Munich, who has already made sure to qualify for the next phase, if Barcelona draws this match, and Inter's match results also draw, it is certain that Barcelona must return to the Europa League. Moreover, if Inter win, it is certain that they will lift the suitcase faster.

Speaking of opportunities, it looks like Barcelona are very unlikely to qualify, because Inter are facing a not so tough club, even in the first leg Inter were able to beat Viktoria Plzen two goals without replying at their home.

It turns out that the game Barcelona - Bayern will be really interesting if Inter does not win against Victoria, that is, there are very few chances for this. In my opinion, such games should be held simultaneously so as not to deprive the competition of intrigue. In the Champions League, even without this, a huge number of games are not interesting and do not contain any intrigue, so depriving the game of intrigue with such a loud sign is a crime. By the way, Bayern is apparently in a great mood and ready to play - Muller continues to troll Lewandowski on social networks.
65  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: If you win big in casino, would it be publicized? on: October 26, 2022, 09:13:39 AM
I think before they public it, they will ask permission on the person who win if they will agree because it was indeed dangerous but despite that, I still see some big winners who shown their full names on public but not their address obviously. If you are a criminal and your plan is to rob the winner then it's always possible to locate his address even by searching his name on the web or his picture.

Pretty sure that some information of that guy will pop out but with that money they won, they can always afford a good security to protect them. They are also prepared for this. If ever I win big I will only keep it a secret even to my local because I am also afraid that lots of people will beg me money Cheesy.

This is reasonable, since a person who suddenly becomes rich immediately has many relatives, old friends, and maybe even children that he has never heard of, hahaha. Plus, if this person is single (or even married), gold diggers start chasing him and trying to shake off money from him. Staying anonymous and not drawing attention to yourself is the most sensible strategy for anyone but the media person.
66  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2022/23 on: October 26, 2022, 08:33:52 AM
It's true what you said under the statistics in the predictions for the Valencia Vs Barcelona match, it could be that Bercelona will win the match 4 days to come, but Valencia doesn't want to lose just like that, what's more, Valencia is favored to play at home but, in fact some predictions say Barcelona will win it..

Valencia - 5.00 = 20%
When the odds are 5.00 , the expected chance of winning is 20%, but the team actually wins 1% matches these odds.

Barcelona - 1.62 = 62%
When odds are 1.62 , the expected chance of winning is 62%, but this team actually won 71% matched these odds.



Interesting statistics. Could you show its source? It looks unrealistic, especially the winning percentage of Valencia - after all, with such a low winning percentage, a bet on Valencia's opponent will almost always be profitable. With the statistics of Barcelona, everything is also strange - after all, if you make 100 bets on the odds of 1.62 and win 71 of them, it will turn out that you will be in profit by 33%. I don't think the bookies are wrong that much.
67  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2022/2023 on: October 26, 2022, 08:19:29 AM
This is just a draw out of many games, I don't think this is the start of a declining run for Arsenal. Just because they lost two points doesn't mean Arsenal will lose the rest of the games ahead. On the contrary I think the team will bounce back in the next game and get a win to stay at the top of the table. It was a tough game for Arsenal against Southampton and I'm not surprised that the game ended in draw

All teams lose points sometimes it's inevitable (even City have lost 2 points more than Arsenal at the moment) and it's impossible to predict when it will happen. In the next round, Arsenal play with Nottingham Forest - the worst team in the league, which it is ahead of by almost 20 points. Most likely this game will be very convenient for Arsenal to regain their confidence and score a lot of goals. Nottingham Forest concede an average of 2 goals per game and Arsenal have the second attack in the league - a big score in this game is extremely likely.
68  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: October 25, 2022, 07:57:43 PM
It is possible that Messi will leave because next year his contract with PSG has ended and that is only a possibility if Messi does not extend his contract. Besides that, Neymar might leave because so far Neymar and their mbappe don't seem to have a harmonious relationship. I think PSG main target this season is the UCL and that is a very difficult target to achieve because several other teams have also performed more impressively such as Real Madrid, Manchester City and Bayern Munich.
so far psg is quite safe at the top of the standings there is no other team that can beat psg so far with only 2x draws and 10 matches ended in wins.

The main reason why Messi can leave PSG is age - his influence is already being felt and even though in Ligue 1 PSG can afford to play not at the maximum/have the optimal composition, in the Champions League it is already too dangerous. The second reason is the salary - Messi receives 41 million a year and this is a significant part of PSG's salary fund. Maybe if Argentina does well in the World Cup, Messi leaves PSG for MLS at the end of the season and thus "leaves at the top" from European football.
69  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA 2022 world cup on: October 25, 2022, 05:48:53 PM
In my coutry people take these coincidences too serious, that affects the gamblers and their bets
This is a strong one, usually the last champion will not win again, this only happened twice in history with Italy 34 and 38 and Brazil in 58 and 62
Brazil almost did another huge thing, won in 94, 2nd place in 98 and champion again in 2002
if we consider modern times, the last time it happened was 60 years ago
Strong reason to not bet in France this year

People are very optimistic about Argentina, but my bet will on Brasil this cup.
In a few days coach will reveal all the squad.

Previously, such a historical pattern was with the European Championship, there were no exceptions, but in 2008 and 2012 Spain broke the pattern. So I wouldn't rely on history when betting - in fact there is no correlation that would prevent the previous champion from repeating its success. I would even say that the champion (the team cannot accidentally become the champion in the vast majority of cases) has more chances, since it was already the strongest.
70  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2022/23 Season on: October 25, 2022, 04:49:51 PM
I'm surprised that tomorrow's games Inter - Victoria and Barcelona - Bayern will be held at different times. If Inter wins, Barcelona will automatically go to the Europa League, regardless of the result of the game with Bayern. It turns out that Barcelona will know their fate in advance (if Inter wins) and this can hit their morale and motivation hard.
I think that with this outcome, the game Barcelona - Bayern (which has already taken first place in advance) turns into a friendly one. I think that this will not suit anyone who likes to watch uncompromising football.
71  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Split the prize or Reroll? on: October 25, 2022, 04:42:55 PM
-skip-
In general, most gamblers don't think this way. They always think of making more money so maybe for most gamblers, if they are in this situation, they might choose rerolling it.

However, most of the responses in this thread suggest that the choice would be in favor of splitting the money. In general, the opinion of the players is clear - they choose the minimum guaranteed prize. I would like to know the opinion of the organizers of the draw - it seems to me that it should differ from the opinion of the players, since the organizers' interest is to create a feeling of excitement in the player, and if the prize is distributed in a "reliable and fair" way, then there is no feeling of excitement.
72  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Will This Habit Lead You To Chase Your Losses And Addictive To Gambling on: October 25, 2022, 04:33:59 PM
Do you think it's unhealthy to always post your winnings on social media and forums because this habit will lead you to chase your losses and bet more so you can post your winning, I find this habit forming and this is bad especially if people are following you and always looking forward to your winning posts.

I think that everyone who is familiar with gambling understands that if a person publishes only winning bets, this does not mean that he only wins. It is impossible to always win, but everyone loves to brag about winnings more than about losing, so often in the media space there is an impression that almost everyone wins. Perhaps this can push a beginner to make a bet.
As for those who publish their bets, of course they are dependent to some extent - they are used to making content and receiving feedback from their audience. But if they don't have winning bets, why not post a losing bet (and get public compassion)?
73  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2022/23 on: October 24, 2022, 09:10:17 PM
The difference of 5 goals at this time does not make anything because Barcelona are still losing 3 points to Madrid.
It depends on how they don't lose consistency because once they don't play well then their points gap will definitely change.
For Real Madrid, it's still quite safe now because they don't need to think about the Champions League because they have already qualified but it's different from Barcelona.

Goal difference is unlikely to be of any significance as it is only the third indicator for determining the La Liga champion if points are equal:

- result in face-to-face meetings - points;

- result in face-to-face meetings - goal difference;

- total goal difference;

- the number of goals scored in all games.

- fair play.

Although, theoretically, Real and Barcelona can go on a par, and if Barcelona wins 3-1 in the return game, the situation will be completely equalized. In the Champions League, Barcelona has one fundamental game left - against Bayern, apparently there is no chance of reaching the playoffs, but Bayern must be beaten to overcome this complex.
74  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Bitcasino.io 💜 — Bitcoin Predictor October 🚀 Take a guess & WIN 🎯 on: October 24, 2022, 08:59:20 PM
2nd prediction: 19211 Euro

Bicasino username: Boristhecat
75  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: If you win big in casino, would it be publicized? on: October 24, 2022, 05:54:35 PM
I am also a supporter of anonymity and also prefer to remain in the shadows, but if we look around, we see that quite a large number of people live without hiding their wealth and personally I do not observe such a trend that they are constantly robbed. Each of us knows bloggers, streamers, artists who earn big money. They behave openly enough with the society and flaunt their wealth. Why don't they get robbed, but if you win a large sum of money in a casino, you are bound to be visited by intruders?

Maybe this is due to a change in the social status of a person? I mean that those people who are already rich understand how to save their money (and probably multiply), and they have a lot of experience dealing with all sorts of crooks who tried to profit at their expense. The "new" rich do not have such experience (especially in the case of winning the casino or the lottery where you become rich in one moment and do not go to this for a long time), so they can be easily deceived by various crooks at this "high" level. To avoid this, they want to remain anonymous.
76  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2022/2023 on: October 23, 2022, 06:10:09 PM
Arsenal have lost points after a long time. Southampton didn't let Arsenal down at home. This result is of course an important win for city in the title race.
The most interesting match of the day was probably wolves-leicester city. I can say that Leicester city scored 4 goals in 4 shots and got an important 3 points. Wolves couldn't find a goal despite so many positions and had to lose.

It turns out that in this round of the leading group/favorites only Manchester City and Newcastle scored 3 points and improved their positions. Probably a big disappointment for those who do not like "money" clubs. By the way, even though Newcastle had a bad start, they are formally already in the top 4 and in terms of goals conceded they have the best statistics of all Premier League clubs. Still, that result with Manchester City 3-3 was not an accident, apparently Newcastle this season will fight for a ticket to the UCL.
77  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Faucet and Bonus Farming on: October 23, 2022, 06:00:16 PM
How do they claim so much? I remember on my online accounts, the bonuses I get are only once; if I still don't use it, it doesn't replenish immediately. Does having a high-level account on the casino site somewhat factor into it?

I thought it was like the bonuses on the deposits as well. It would help if you played with the balance first; then, you would be able to utilize it and then withdraw.

Probably we are talking about some accounting errors that allow you to get the same bonus more times than was intended by the organizers. If we are talking about faucets and the like, then there users abuse them with the help of bots and various software that creates fake users 24/7 who in turn get paid for actions/requests.
In fact, this has long been an unpopular topic, since bots mainly work on both sides - one side creates fake users, and the other weeds them out.
78  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling, tourism and legal gambling age for gamblers around the world. on: October 23, 2022, 05:50:29 PM
-skip-
An interesting question is, If the younger person wins the lottery from the gifted ticket, will the state agree too pay them or wait till they come of legal age??
-skip-

From a legal point of view, this is a simple question. The law separates two activities: gambling and income generation. Since the ticket was gifted, there was no violation of the law. So the lucky person is left to receive his prize and pay taxes (if any - I heard in different states this is regulated in different ways).
A more confusing case would be if a minor illegally purchased lottery tickets and won the top prize. Here, most likely, we would see an interesting struggle of lawyers.
You could rightly say, the meanor never gambled. I don't know what the rules are like but, its not like this meanor was taken all the way to the lottery store or something. It was just gifted to him or her and there are chances that, the meanor doesn't even under stand what he or she holds but, is buying a lottery ticket really gambling? Its not like your predicting any event but simply taking chances.
If I were to decide over such situation of a gift lottery ticket, I'll probably allow the meanor have his or her win. What's the point waiting till 18 or whatever age is considered legal. It could be voided as well if its wrong.


Gambling is a complex topic and regulations vary greatly from country to country (due to various traditional/cultural/religious reasons), but I would like to know in which country is lottery not gambling? Wiki says that lotteries have been held in Europe since the 15th century, and scientists believe that they were in a slightly different form much earlier - in the days of ancient Greece. And it has always been considered a game of chance, since the distribution of profit or loss is carried out randomly.
And you probably heard about instant lotteries? When you have to buy a ticket, erase the protective layer and see the result. What is this if not pure gambling?
79  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: October 22, 2022, 09:06:06 PM
What are the odds of Klopp being sacked from Liverpool?

I know he is a goat but in Premier nobody is immune, too much money in the game.

As long as Liverpool play in the Champions League I think Klopp has some kind of immunity. If they are knocked out of the Champions League in the early stages and the league position is as it is now, it is unlikely that Liverpool will make it to the top 4, then the immunity will be gone. Liverpool's results as a whole can be explained by various objective reasons, but Klopp needs to fix everything as quickly as possible. Liverpool don't have a reliable game, they are extremely unstable.
80  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: October 22, 2022, 08:10:04 PM
I don't think that the Netherlands are so weak that they don't have a chance at all for the title. This is a short tournament and the result will be somewhat random. And in any case, it is better to lose in the final or semi-final than in the 1/8. Therefore, the Netherlands will be as motivated as possible. By the way, surprisingly, underdogs almost never become world champions, unlike the European Championship, where, for example, Greece, unexpectedly for everyone, became the champion, although the average strength of teams is higher at the European Championship than at the World Cup.
I am not sure, they are not looking like they are good enough to beat the best teams one on one when the time comes. Everyone agrees that the four of Argentina/Brazil/England/France are the teams to beat this year, they are really good, and I feel like even if Netherlands match up with one of them and somehow managed to beat them, will they be able to do it to all of them?

Depends on the drawing a bit as well, what if those teams lose to some easier team by being unlucky and Netherlands end up facing easier opponents because they draw lucky and other games work better for them? In that case it would be quite possible for them to win, but it's unlikely to say the least.

You correctly noted that the draw will mean a lot and it is not at all necessary to beat all the strong teams one by one. Maybe they will destroy each other themselves. Or there is another good example - UCL last year. Real in each round of the playoffs met with the strongest team (at least which was the favorite relative to Real), and Liverpool met only with weaker opponents. As a result, Real won, but in such a short-lived tournament as the World Cup, it is possible that one team will reach the final exhausted, while the other will be relatively fresh and full of strength. With such an imbalance, the Netherlands could easily become champions.
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