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61  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: New to speculation, how do i report losses/gains for income tax? on: February 11, 2013, 09:19:36 AM
You certainly cannot report losses and ask to pay less taxes for that.

I completely disagree with this.

You can report gambling losses, stock trading losses, currency trading losses, bond trading losses.  There's no reason you shouldn't be able to report Bitcoin trading losses.

Of course, they would be used to offset gains first.

...I'm not an accountant...   seek professional advice.
62  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Table comparing Bitcoin's utility vs. cash and gold? on: February 09, 2013, 09:17:41 PM
And I wouldn't say that Bitcoin is impossible to inflate.

There's a published inflation schedule, and it has inflated every day since its existence.  In fact, on its second day, inflation was 100%.  Not a good start!   Grin

It has scheduled inflation well into the 22nd century.  It's still a positive for Bitcoin relative to the others, but your header is  incorrect, saying it's "impossible".


Also, for those that fear that deflation will cause people to hoard bitcoins and spend their Dollars/Yen/etc., you have to realize that it works both ways.  As a merchant, I prefer bitcoin, and so am more likely to offer a better price to receive bitcoins.
63  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: ..... and .... a quarter billion dollars worth on: February 09, 2013, 08:15:56 AM
http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true

The value of the Bitcoin money supply exceeds $250,000,000 USD for the first time.



Thank you for not referring to it as "Market Cap".
64  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin Technical Introduction for programmers on: February 07, 2013, 11:24:37 AM
I wrote this up, trying to give an introduction to Bitcoin to technical people (specifically some programmers I know).   I figured I'd post it here, in case someone else can use it.

It's long, sorry.  Feedback welcome.



For the non-technical person, it’s best to think of Bitcoins as currency like the Euro or like Gold.  It has properties like both.  First, the price fluctuates.  Second, you can spend it, save it, convert back and forth between dollars.



For the technical understanding, you have to know a little about digital signatures and hashing.  You just need to know that there are “1 way” math functions where it’s easy to go one way, and hard (impossible, practically speaking) to go the other way.  Like factoring large numbers.  It’s easy to create a large multiple of two really large primes, and it’s hard to factor the result.   Public key encryption and digital signatures use this feature of math – that 2 numbers, the “key pair” have a special mathematical relationship to each other.

I think Bitcoin is a weird name.  Because it’s really not a coin.  I think looking at a paper wallet helps to understand.   If you go to www.bitaddress.org, you’ll see that you get a public key and a private key.   Those two numbers have a mathematical property such that it’s easy to have derived the public key from the private key, but hard to go the other way.  In addition, you can prove that you are in possession of the private key, without ever divulging it.



For a banking analogy, the public key is like your checking account number.  You can tell people your checking account number (like you tell your company, for direct deposit).  You can accept payment to your checking account, by giving people the number.  There's not a lot of risk in divulging your checking account number, although I wouldn’t post my checking account number on the internet, because spending (or raiding your account) in the traditional banking sense isn’t as secure as in the Bitcoin world.  But your account number is something that’s OK to share, for people to deposit to.  This is like your “Bitcoin Address” or public key.

The private key is like your Debit Card, Pin, CVV/CVC code and Signature all wrapped in one.  In traditional banking, if you want to spend your money, you usually have to give this information over to the person you are spending it with.  And by doing so, you are allowing them to raid your account, but you are trusting them that they will only take the amount that you authorize.  

With Bitcoin, if you reveal your private key, then the person also can take all your money.  But the beauty of the math is that you don’t need to reveal it to prove that you have it.  So in this sense, Bitcoin is far more secure than traditional banking.  If I want to spend money in account “A”, all I need to do is prove that I am authorized (i.e. that I have the private key in my possession), and I can spend money in account “A”.



More banking analogy:   There are no coins in Bitcoin.  There are only ledger entries.  Picture a giant paper ledger at a central bank.  If I have money in account  “A” and I send it over to you, at account “B”, then there’s a one-line transaction in this paper ledger that says “debit column ‘A’ and credit column ‘B’”.  Further, you can look back in the ledger, examining column “A” and see that account ‘A’ has a positive balance by looking at the transaction that credited “A” originally.

A major technical breakthrough of Bitcoin is that they figured out how to implement all this, without having to trust a central bank to maintain the ledger.  Instead, the ledger is held in a peer-to-peer network.  Everyone can see the entire history of all transactions (if you want to), and follow any money from one account number to another (you don’t know who owns the account numbers, which is why they say it’s pseudonymous).  You can literally “follow the money”.



So when you spend money, you digitally “sign it over” to the other party.  Your digital signature proves that you have the right to spend it, and creates one transaction in the ledger that “moves” the money from your account to someone else’s.  And since people can own multiple accounts (“Bitcoin Addresses”), one transaction can move money from several accounts and to several accounts (including moving money internally from one account of yours to another).   A very frequent transaction that you’ll see is… say I want to give you 3.50 Bitcoins, and I have a Bitcoin Address with 5 Bitcoins.  I’ll spend the full 5, giving you 3.50, and another one of my addresses 1.50.  (Changing addresses adds to the anonymity.)  They call that “1.50” the “change”, just like if you presented a $5 bill from one pocket for a $3.50 transaction, got change back and put it into your other pocket.

OK, so you have all these transactions flying back and forth in a peer-to-peer network.  So how do you keep them all in sync and in order?   Well, each transaction has a random transaction number, so if a Bitcoin node gets a transaction, it can rapidly lookup to see if it ever got that transaction before.  If so, it can ignore this duplicate entry.  If not, it adds this transaction to the list of transactions, assuming that it looks legit (i.e. it’s a net-zero transaction – it debits the same amount that it credits, and the spending accounts are all digitally signed).  But this still doesn’t “sequence” the transactions, so wait, there’s more….

Here’s the magic part.  Again, picture the giant paper ledger at the bank.

The software is recording all these transactions on a page in the ledger.   Each transaction gets one line on the paper ledger, and each line needs to be logically consistent (i.e. net zero:  debit some accounts, credit others, for a sum of zero).  The software is also verifying that each transaction was legit, in that no money was spent that wasn’t available to be spent.  We really don’t care what sequence “on that page” the transactions are listed in, as long as we always look to previous pages to verify the account balances.  So we’ll consider all transactions on the current page as “unconfirmed transactions”.  And once we “turn the page” (moving forward in the ledger), they are confirmed.  So you can look backwards in the ledger to see confirmed transactions and make sure that the money is there to be spent.  And you can look on the current page to make sure that there aren’t two transactions that “double-spend” a balance.  And then the system can periodically “turn the page” to lock in the transactions.

So who turns the page, and what is the process of turning the page?   Well, people compete to turn the page, and get paid to do it.  They are running programs on their systems that do basically one function:  They take a group of unconfirmed transactions, and compute some math around it.  And the first one to compute the correct math gets paid.  This is the “mining” process  - another name that I dislike.

The algorithm is this:  they figuratively write one more transaction on the page that pays them a certain amount of Bitcoins (for doing the work to turn the page), and then append a “random” number on the page, and hash all the numbers on the page.  And if the hash comes up with a leading zero, then they can lock in the page.  They announce to the world that “This random number locks in page x”, and they get to keep the money, because they effectively “paid themselves” on that page.  

Of course hashing a page full of numbers to get a leading zero is not a hard problem – it’s a 50/50 shot in binary.  Hashing a page full of numbers and getting 2 leading zeros in the result is a 25% probability of success.  But hashing a page full of numbers and getting a series of 45 leading zero bits is a really hard problem.   And so the number of leading zeros required adjusts over time, depending on the success of these people who are securing the money system (called “miners”).  These people pick a random number, try the hash and fail the vast majority of the time.  But every ten minutes (on average) someone succeeds, and gets paid.

This is the way the money is initially distributed.  Those who perform this valuable service of securing the transactions get paid.

When someone announces that they have “locked a page of the ledger”, everyone else can easily check their work, and will accept it if it was done properly.  That is, verify that they paid themselves the right amount of money (which, currently, is 25 Bitcoins, but this ramps down over the years, plus any transaction fees on the page), and that the random number that they supplied truly does make the page hash to some checksum that has lots of leading zeros.

It’s a beautiful technical solution to the problem of avoiding double-spending of money.  There are some other conditions that are handled by the software as well – if two miners solve the problem nearly simultaneously, who decides who won?  Well, the overall collection of miners will proceed down both paths, with some miners believing that one person won, and others will believe that the other person won, depending on which announcement you heard first, and which answer is better in some technical tie-breaking sense.  

This probably won’t be a 50/50 split because of peer-to-peer networking, you are going to hear one first.  So, as the subsequent  page of transactions is getting locked in, different miners might be working on different problems.  And chances are that the part of the network that has more nodes believing in its path will lock the next page.  Eventually, one of the two paths will emerge victorious over the other, and one single ledger will again be considered accurate.    So the more confirmations you have on a transaction, the more “pages” have been locked in, and so the more certain you can be that it’s permanent in the ledger.  Six confirmations is considered to be perfect confirmation, in a practical sense.

Ledger Pages in my analogy are called “blocks” in Bitcoin language.

Bitcoin software and websites hide all this complexity from you.  But it helps to understand it, because it adds up to real money!  If you have a significant stash of Bitcoins, you need to know who you are trusting, and it all comes down to who is holding the Private Keys.  If you keep a balance on a website (like Blockchain.info, or Mt Gox, or Coinbase or Instawallet), then you are trusting them to protect the private keys.  This has proven to be disastrous in some other instances in the past.  But as time goes by, the weaker, less trustworthy players seem to be falling out, although someone new (trustworthy or untrustworthy) can pop up at any time, and old favorites can screw up and lose everything too!

If you are running the Bitcoin software on your local PC, then you need to protect your own private key(s).  Note that the software can generate billions of Bitcoin Addresses from one private key.  But you are trying to protect your Private Key, which is contained in a wallet file on your local PC, if you go this route.  So you would want a good backup or two of your wallet file, and you want to encrypt it.  And keep your PC free of viruses and key-loggers.

If you are holding a substantial sum of money in Bitcoins, then you may consider an offline wallet.  The concept here is to create a key pair “offline” so that no key-logger, virus, or untrustworthy website can steal your private key.  You can send money to the offline wallet without ever having the Private Key online.  If you trust bitaddress.org (and it’s all open source!), there’s a way you can print a paper wallet, and never have those digits of your private key ever appear on a pc that’s connected to the internet ever.  

And since Bitcoin is just a giant ledger, then funding that account is just a matter of paying the public key (Bitcoin Address), and you are all set.  Put your investment away for a few years and see what happens.  When you want to “spend” it or “cash” it, type in the private key (or scan it in), and you can spend it.  In fact, you can check your account balance over the years without ever having your private key touch the internet.
65  Economy / Service Discussion / Price plunges to $14! according to Blockchain.info on: February 07, 2013, 09:32:53 AM
It frustrates me that Blockchain.info can't provide accurate pricing data with their API.

Currently their API is reporting a most recent 24 hour price of 14.308837101763865
 http://blockchain.info/q/24hrprice

This is annoying!  who do I talk to?
66  Economy / Speculation / Re: What happens when bitcoin's market cap hits $1B? on: February 06, 2013, 09:10:45 AM
I think this could happen early next year.
The Bitcoin price increased 4x since last year.

Agreed.  Consider this trend, with checkpoints every 5 months:

After........................................A Bitcoin has never been worth less than...
Feb-2011$0.50
Jul-2011 (5 months later)$1
Dec-2011 (5 months later)$2
May-2012 (5 months later)$4
Oct-2012 (5 months later)$8

The bottom has doubled every 5 months (equating to a 15% increase in the bottom every month).  Big assumption, I know, but with this consistent growth rate, after January 2014, we will never see a price as low as $64 again.  And considering that Bitcoins have been trading at a premium of 40% over that base on occasion, I'd expect that they'll hit $1B in market cap before the end of the year.
67  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Let's add up the KNOWN lost bitcoins on: February 06, 2013, 08:15:07 AM
You have a spectrum of losses here, ranging from definitely lost to possibly lost.  You are starting to cross into the territory where you can take some educated guesses at "possibly lost".

Not to totally derail this thread, but there was a thread last week that talked about the fact that the most popular amounts held in a Bitcoin Address are 1 satoshi and 50 BTC.  If I recall correctly, there were 2 Million BTC held in Bitcoin Addresses with 50 BTC.  Since 50 BTC almost certainly means that it was a mined coin with no transaction fees, then these must have been in the early days.

This would definitely be something I would have done... hear about Bitcoin, download the client with the built-in miner.  Run it for a few days, generate 50 Bitcoins, decide that was a worthless project and move on to the next idea.  I'm sure other people did that back in early 2009 too.  I would bet that the vast majority of 50 BTC accounts that are the result of CPU-based mining with no transaction fees are lost.

I would bet that 15-20% of coins are lost permanently.
68  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Only 50k unique addresses? on: February 05, 2013, 01:59:08 PM
since this chart goes down as well as up it can only be interpreted in a way that it isnt all-time but unique addresses used within a certain time frame - for blockchain.info thats very likely 24hours.

Ok, then where is the chart that shows what I thought this chart would show?


What good would that be?  See... we'll need a chart that tells us what the chart that tells us what this shows shows.
69  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Blockchain.info giving inconsistent results on: February 05, 2013, 07:30:47 AM
Does anybody know why Blockchain.info gives inconsistent results for their 24 Hour Average price in US Dollars?

Example:
(A) http://blockchain.info/q/24hrprice currently shows $21.0
(B) http://blockchain.info/ticker currently shows $20.36


I see that the simple Javascript lookup, www.btcbal.com , uses the first one, which seems to run high lately.

From documentation:

(A) says:   24hrprice - 24 hour weighted price from Mt.gox and tradehill
(From http://blockchain.info/q/ )

(B) says:   Returns a JSON object with the currency codes as keys. "15m" is the 15 minutes delayed market price, "24h" is the 24 hour average market price, "symbol" is the currency symbol.
(From http://blockchain.info/api/charts_api )


Could the tradehill data be messing up the first one?
70  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A simple definition of "lost" coins on: February 04, 2013, 10:33:08 PM
Do you agree with this reasoning?

At best, you can put an upper limit on the number of lost coins.


21 Million.
71  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Becoming a Bitllionaire! on: February 04, 2013, 02:25:39 PM
Not sure Bitllionaire is the right word.

The prefix in Millionaire indicates 10^6.  The prefix in Billionaire indicates 10^9.  You've removed it and replaced it with something that means a SINGLE binary digit.  So I think if you own a single binary digit, you are a Bitllionaire.

Given that a bitcoin Private Key is made up of 256 of these, and the bitcoin Address can be secured for as little a one satoshi (well, really zero, to be technical - since there's no "buying" of the private key), I would say that if you own a private key, you are a Bitllionaire 256 times over!  And so for a mere 256th of a satoshi, you could be considered a Bitllionaire.


Can you tell I don't like the choice of word?   Wink
72  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Very Important Security Update for Java on: February 02, 2013, 02:05:34 PM
let me ask this another way.

Allow me to answer this in another way.

If you are wanting to use either bitaddress.org or brainwallet.org (or anything else similar) then the approach that I would recommend is:

1) Buy and old laptop that has no WiFi (or *remove* the WiFi card).

2) Plug up ethernet and modem (depending on how old) sockets so it can't "accidentally" get connected.

Use a bootable USB OS that has your preferred .js scripts and .html pages *pre-installed* (http://susestudio.com/a/kp8B3G/ciyam-safe if interested).

Use QR codes to move data between your *offline*and *online* computers (100% *air-gapped* and 0% risk).



Smiley


I'll add that this is a tremendous amount of paranoia and hassle for the casual user.  There are often tradeoffs between Security and usability.  Also between Security and Cost.

Your answer is akin to "To absolutely protect your belongings, you should purchase an underground bomb shelter with state-of-the-art security systems and an impenetrable vault that requires a 200-digit pass code to enter it."

...Oh, you were only trying to make sure your old futon didn't get stolen from your college dorm room?  Well then just lock your door, idiot!


Security should scale up with the assets you are trying to protect.  Reasonable steps to take when creating a paper wallet (for someone with a small amount of assets), are to use a system with virus protection installed, open bitaddress.org in a "private browsing" window, print your paper wallet, and close the browser immediately afterward.
73  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What items, not readily available, would you like to see offered for Bitcoin? on: February 01, 2013, 07:00:30 PM
Anything and everything on amazon.com would be nice  Cheesy

"BTC Buy sells gift cards, so you can use Bitcoins to make Amazon.com purchases, albeit indirectly"
 -  http://greycoder.com/where-can-i-spend-bitcoins/

74  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: WeUseCoins - What would you include/exclude in a 2013 remake? on: February 01, 2013, 06:54:04 PM
Make several slight variations for different audiences: newbs (smartphone, no mining, BitcoinStore/WordPress), merchants (ala today's CalvinAyre article), investors (emphasize market cap, appreciation, venture capital, etc.), libertarians, gamblers, and maybe even prospective miners (to strengthen the network). Each can be sold more effectively by tailoring the message appropriately.

For investors, you hit a few of the critical items, but some of those things are very dynamic (like Market Cap and appreciation).  You could say some general things about Market Cap and appreciation but they'll may get out-dated fast.  As I talk to people who are interested in investing in Bitcoin, I say that there are a lot of ways to invest in it; buying the currency is just one way.  Investing in companies who use Bitcoin, or who help others use Bitcoin seems like another way to invest.

I also use a log-graph of Mt Gox since the beginning, and I drew a line on it that shows that if you smooth out the bubble/crash, you are still looking at a 10% per month appreciation over about a 30 month period.

Some numbers that can really excite investors is to emphasize the investment that is already going on.  Look at how much IT infrastructure is devoted to Bitcoin.  Do the math on how much compute power is behind the mining process - my estimate was about $25 Million DEDICATED, working 24x7 crunching numbers.  Most IT Infrastructure in major corporations is barely tapped - maybe averaging out at 20% of capacity (probably a gross over-estimation).  This is $25 Million working at 100% CPU/GPU/ASIC capacity.  $25 Million worth of infrastructure cooperatively working together, but in a "trust no one" architecture, provided by hobbyists and small businesses.  And that's just for Mining.  It doesn't even scratch the surface of the exchanges, the clients, the payment processors, the forums, etc.

And the human capital behind this thing is tremendous as well.  There are some really smart developers who have a vision and are working very hard, recognizing that they have a lot at stake if this succeeds.

75  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A simple definition of "lost" coins on: January 31, 2013, 10:51:02 PM
I agree with giszmo.
During the crash, the smart money was buying, not selling.
I sure as hell didn't sell, and I'm certainly not the smart money!
76  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Your opinion: Best Bitcoin Non-Trust Transactions Solution? on: January 31, 2013, 10:46:49 PM
There could be a "rating convention":  After you complete a transaction, you rate on a scale of 1-10 how the transaction went.

You pay the other party in satoshis:  1 to 10.

The votes are public, so analysis of the block chain could determine scamming and ballot stuffing.  Analysis of the block chain could also link the rating to the size of the transaction, with some errors.

Generally, one party would send 10 to the other, and the other would return 10 back (for a flawless transaction).  Ten 1's aren't the same as one 10.  An average rating could be calculated by averaging all tiny transactions.

It's not quite as good as "A+++++++++++++++++ Would do business again", but hey, this is brainstorming, so there are no bad ideas.
77  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A simple definition of "lost" coins on: January 31, 2013, 10:34:43 PM
Given that all my holdings met that criteria until yesterday, I would have to disagree.
78  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Community discussion: Precede fake and throwaway addresses with a #? on: January 30, 2013, 12:23:35 PM
if you want to make it obvious to geeks that the address is fake, try putting any of the following in the address: 0 O I l

This is like fake IP addresses in the movies like 198.60.280.32.  The number 280 isn't a valid octet for an IP address, but to non-techies, it doesn't look out of place.

I was going to suggest the same thing.  If you are writing it on cardboard, though, 0 or O could easily be mistaken for o (which he has on his sign).  And I or l could be mistaken for 1. 

So you really have to go out of your way:  perhaps put a slash through a zero, or make the "I" with prominent horizontal lines.  That would achieve exactly what the OP is trying to achieve - make it unable to be used, while it still looks to the novice like a real address.


Then again, this isn't like "867-5309", where the holder of the number is penalized severely when the number appears in the mainstream culture.  Which is why I would go back to my original proposal and pick some "random" number, say 1PfaKe9tFitNrUFjht4DNvVkmjEFCo3sYs, for everyone to use as the preferred fake.  Yeah, that's a plan!  And it looks unused too!  https://blockchain.info/address/1PfaKe9tFitNrUFjht4DNvVkmjEFCo3sYs .   (Are you buying this yet?)
79  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Community discussion: Precede fake and throwaway addresses with a #? on: January 30, 2013, 12:07:34 AM
Let's just always use this address as the fake:

1PfaKe9tFitNrUFjht4DNvVkmjEFCo3sYs

 Cheesy
80  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee) on: January 29, 2013, 06:25:34 PM
20.69
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