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Mostly it seems you want to distribute coins among at least a million people before allowing an arms-war to start among them whereby they compete with each other to enrich processor manufacturers instead of each other.
How about this:
- Our AfterburnerCoin system will not recognise a coin-production transaction as valid unless it designates a specific address as beneficiary, or one of a "jury of peers" of addresses maybe.
- The institution / committee / whatever controlling that address or those addresses commits to issuing the coins to many people, no more than 21 coins per person, so that a million people are required in order for all 21 million coins to be issued.
No, it is another great mistake - to arbitrary distribute coins among at least a million people before allowing an arms-war to start among them. We need 1 000 000 people of high quality & IQ, each: - can invest his OWN money to ATI-GPU miner, some $1000 - can install mining software on it - can support mining uptime close to 99% per unit time for YEARS - can become a permanent peer, when mining will be unprofitable |
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Oh guys, I see you STARTED with exponetial decrease of mining mass BTC. LOL)) Do you EVER think?!
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If "afterburner229" have better code for us to examine we will be very pleased.
Let me some time to think about an idea. Consider real Gold. While we have mined 1/3 of total gold, the mass of the gold being mined per unit time, in the total world, depends on total mining power. NOT constant mass being mined per unit time: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- mass_per_time = k * total_mining_power, where k = const, mass of mined gold < 90% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- When we have mined 90% of total gold, the mass of the gold being mined per unit time starts to decrease exponentially: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- mass_per_time = mass_per_time (mass of mined gold = 90%) * exp (- time/1_YEAR), mass of mined gold >= 90% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- (don't be afraid about if we get not 100% EXACTLY - exponential function DOES make upper boundary - just re-normalize) Look in to the history - 90% of total gold mined was reached on time interval few CENTURYs. Of course, we apparently do not want wait for century. 90% bitcoins must be mined in 5-10 years due to world-wide political reasons & crysis. This is normalization for k = const, mentioned above. So the new algorithm is almost ready! |
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It would not work. You can't have 50 blocks being created every hour. It causes problems for the network. The difficulty HAS to adjust to how quickly blocks are being created, in order to keep block generation at one per 10 minutes.
If you understand psychological part of problem, technical part is not problem at all. Bitcoin even support different versions of protocols. I am not strong in bitcoin algorithms. So YOU may think how to make 1 000 000 miners in the field possible, with no dependance on their mining power. Imagine, IBM were interested in bitcoin in earlier stages. Then, IBM connects all their super-computers to mining. So, Average Joe could not enter into the field even in earlier stage. In current stage, we would see IBM plus 100 individual miners. Understand, bitcoin algorithm is VERY vulnerable, self-collapsing, and it's vulnerability does NOT lie in cryptographic plane of view. |
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Bitcoin has to use something to distribute the incentive. "Satoshi" chose Hash/s, and that's pretty reasonable. If you wanted to eliminated GPUs from the equation, you could probably write a Bitcoin clone (PersonCoin) that rewards based on an updated list of cost of resource (hash, storage, bandwidth etc.) that you believe optimised for an individual, and charge a tax for updating the list of standards.
"Satoshi" chose Hash/s because he is a geek, specialist in mathematics only. Bitcoin society needs specialists in psychology too. Normalization by just Hash/s is WRONG. Although, it could spark, if there no ATI GPUs on the market. but they are. If "Satoshi" were studying psychology, he normalized the algorithm, to allow 1 000 000 miners come into field, with no dependance of power of ATI GPUs. Compare with real gold: individual gold-digger finds an instrument, that increases his individual gold mining in 100 times - from 7 Mhash/s to 700 Mhash/s - on the time interval of ONE day - time to buy ATI GPU and install phoenix-like software. Only ONE man developed that software, say, for months & years. But ONCE the software is available for free download, each average Joe can increase his real gold mining power up to 100 times in ONE day. Just think by head & compute numbers. Now, I have understood, why, difficulty is being increased on time interval FEW days! It's JUST average time for average Joe to buy ATI GPI, download free software, and start mining. And sure, TODAY you can see that number of miners increases too. BUT, this process will continue for FEW days (weeks). Then, mining will fall down, because of almost zero profit AND unabling to output large amounts of $. And the bitcoin society will be frozen in some 10-20 000 (ok, let 50 000) miners & acceptors, on the time interfal FEW weeks. This is mathematical theorem according to current difficulty algorithm! |
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You have to realize this is incorrect. Look at the mining forums and see all the new posts made by new forum users asking how to mine.
LOL))) I've asked how to mine, too!! But watching current difficulty increase rate, and current profit decrease rate (@ time interval = FEW DAYS), both in BTC & $ (despite $/BTC rises), I NEVER ENTER. Because, according to current politics, there is no chance to expand bitcoin society up from some 10 000 people mining & accepting boundary! Compute, ATI GPUs made HUGE bias to HIGH difficulty, that can NOT be reached profitably for 1 000 000 Average Joes, that SHOULD be the base for bitcoin society! Mumber of miners & acceptors will be frozen near 10 000 people boundary. |
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I suppose GPU are the breakers of bitcoin society.
Once each average Joe is able to use ATI GPUs for mining, his Mhash/s power jumped up in roughly 100 times!
So, when one new GPU average Joe comes to the game field, it equal to 100 old, CPU average Joes.
Then, other 10 000 Joes bought ATI GPUs in SHORT time period - and because, difficulty-doubling interval is FEW days for now.
So, 10 000 CPU average Joes become 10 000 ATI GPU average Joe, while almost zero NEW average Joes come to the field. Don't matter, if CPU Joes become GPU Joes, or CPU Joes left the filed, and new GPU come in.
Now, to keep profit for individual miner the same, we need hardware, 100 times stronger than typical ATI GPU.
But this is impossible: supercomputers belong to large companies such as IBM, etc. not to individual average Joes.
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Bitcoin algorithm is excellent in idea, but just is not normalized properly - for 1 000 000 miners in the field,
NOT for 1 block generation per unit time (10min)!
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rezin777, bitterTea you say right things but you DO NOT compute numbers! Of course, mining is profitable, otherwise difficulty will decrease! Compute profit, for example by http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php- How mining profit decreases TWICE in FEW days?! Despite $/BTC is still rising in average. - How it takes place while just 10 000 miners & 10 000 acceptors in the game field?! - How it takes place while just 1/3 of total gold is mined?! Old miners NEVER leave the field, so profit will fall VERY close to zero, in FEW weeks, according to current difficulty rate. Bitcoin's economical behaviour is NOT similar to real gold one! And trust to bitcoin is tiny while bitcoin society is tiny. Bitcoin is like an UFO, not Gold. |
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What exactly do you mean by "trust" here? Trust that any bitcoins you acquire will be safe from theft/hacking? That they won't devalue due to inflation?
For me, average Joe, trust is just acceptance world-wide. If there is no good acceptance - only 10 000 people world-wide, let me mine bitcoins with my average Computer! Then I decide myself, what I prefer - keep BTC, or output $. small bitcoin society & unprofitable mining - no trust. it so simple. what about strong cryptography - let geeks to headache about. |
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Actually, mining is much more profitable now than when bitcoin was only worth 80 cents (and difficulty was about 95000)... So this whole "early adoption" idea falls a bit short.
Also good argument. Above, I was mixing two notions - profit in dollars, and profit in bitcoins. I hope wether you detect this. Of course, if we allow some 1 000 000 people to mine profitably in bitcoins, $/BTC ratio will fall down. That is situation with 1 000 000 new miners attracted somewhat similar to situation you mentioned above. But somewhat not similar - if other average Joes see, that 1 000 000 people already trust in bitcoin, it will keep $/BTC at high positions! Despite, you still do not understand my accent: ________________________________________ NOT profit in dollars is matter. FEW days time interval of difficulty-doubling IS matter WHILE there are 10 000 players worldwide in the field only, AND just 1/3 of total bitcoins are mined. ________________________________________ To verify the danger, simply replace bitcoin by real gold: INDIVIDUAL real-gold miners WERE ABLE to mine real gold profitably FOR YEARS. Was Real-gold mining difficulty being increased TWICE in the FEW DAYS?! Not $/gold exchange ratio, but difficulty of mining gold?! |
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The increases in difficulty increase trust in bitcoin, because they are a result of greater computing power, and greater computing power increases security.
I wrote about this too - difficulty increases trust just for you, first 10 000 mining geeks. For me, average Joe, trust depends on number of bitcoin acceptors world-wide, and because this number is so poor, as 10 000 miners, the only way to trust for me - being attracted to profitable mining myself. FEW days ago I could mine profitably. Few days later I never can mine due to difficulty. So, average Joe does not trust in bitcoin. |
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Also, I used http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.phpto see, difficulty rises faster than $/BTC exchange ratio. and I can not find any prooven data of rising of number of bitcoin acceptors world-wide. some exchange closes (btcex.com) take place.. |
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Doubling of difficulty means going from 10,000 miners to 20,000 and on the way to a million miners. Isn't that what you want?
Your problem is that you cant see before or beyond the difficulty increase to the bitcoin price increase. Before you got here the difficulty was flat around 100,000 and BTC was under $1.00.
Then BTC went to almost $10. Now difficulty is heading towards a million to match the 10x increase in price.
When difficulty is at a million and BTC is $10, mining will seem like a losing bet. Some will quit and sell their coins.
Come back in a few months. The price will go to $50 or $100. Difficulty will follow from one million to ten million, and all the new miners will complain that the sky is falling, difficulty is headed towards the moon (a good thing btw), and bitcoin is doomed.
First good argument, you know, I was waiting for it. But 95% of 10 000 bitcoin adopters were so unlogical! But they all are still geeks! I agree with this argument, but the problem is ALL you mentioned takes place in the field of.. 10 000 players! bitcoin excange ratio is too unstable, and money output is too unguaranteed. DANGER, extreme exponential games take place in the field of some 10 000 players! |
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Did you read all my posts? I answered, I do not trust in 10 000 bitcoin accepters & miners, I will provide goods for dollars, because 6 000 000 000 people world-wide accept dollars. Even in Russia  I am, average Joe, will trust in bitcoin, only if I can mine bitcoin profitably. Gold & dollars are historically trusted, bitcoin is NOT. For bitcoin - can't mine <=> can't trust. In CURRENT difficulty rate situation. In CURRENT number of bitcoin acceptors. Oh, so you're crazy. Yes, I am, as crazy as difficulty rate @ http://bitcoincharts.com |
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Real gold mining is unprofitable for most people, so if they want gold, they provide goods and services in exchange for other peoples' gold.
Why don't you try selling stuff on biddingpond.com or bitcoin classifieds?
Did you read all my posts? I answered, I do not trust in 10 000 bitcoin accepters & miners, I will provide goods for dollars, because 6 000 000 000 people world-wide accept dollars. Even in Russia I am, average Joe, will trust in bitcoin, only if I can mine bitcoin profitably. Gold & dollars are historically trusted, bitcoin is NOT. For bitcoin - can't mine <=> can't trust. In CURRENT difficulty rate situation. In CURRENT number of bitcoin acceptors. |
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Total BTC already mined is 6.306 mln. from 21 mln. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/Imagine just 1/3 real gold is mined, and individual mining is unprofitable, but FEW days ago it was profitable @ 7:1 per individual gold-miner (per electricity cost). THINK! |
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IMAGINE REAL GOLD MINING BECOMES UNPROFITABLE FOR INDIVIDUAL GOLD-DIGGER IN TIME INTERVAL OF FEW DAYS.
while total number of gold-diggers is 10 000 in 6 000 000 000 world.
guys can you think by head?
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I just read this whole thread again, and I still can't understand your point, apart from missing out on the goldrush.
Yes, I say APPARENTLY - I am missing out on the goldrush, because FEW days ago difficult was 244000, and FEW days prognosis is 380000. Few days ago I could be miner, few days later I never could. I do not what to do something most profitable than mining, because I do not trust to 10 000 bitcoin miners/accepters worldwide - I need some 1 000 000 worldwide, in 6 000 000 000 world! And I am that EXACTLY average Joe with $1000 for 5850x2 or 5970 miner rig. Do you want you 10 000 guys will manage the world?! Bitcoin is a monopoly much stronger than dollar?! |
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All right, well since you don't know what you're talking about and have no interest in learning, I wish you good luck. Bye Estimated 386297 in 894 blks ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/No problem! I see you understand EXACTLY what I talking about - you are just pyramid gamer, you do not care that bitcoin failure will discredit the whole idea of decentrolized distributed currency in eye of 6 000 000 000 average Joes. |
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Changing "difficulty" in that way would break Bitcoin. Perhaps you should study it more closely.
As for Russia, btcex.com disappeared because its operator was apparently a scammer, who also was apparently involved somehow in DDoS attacks on some other Bitcoin exchanges. Lots of people lost money when btcex.com closed. This is unfortunate.
Perhaps instead of complaining about mining being unprofitable, you should do something that IS profitable, like open a new exchange and run it honestly?
Exactly no! I know, algorithm change is a HUGE problem. Not technical one - bitcoin supports several protocol vrsions. You, 10 000 miners & adopters, will loose profit in a short-interval future. And long-interval future is DIM at all for all business. So if you advice me "do something else (but mining) that IS profitable", in context of difficult-doubling interval of FEW days, and bitcoin adopters of FEW 10 000 people world-wide - it carries out a "message" following: "we know about the problem, but we are pyramid gamers, and just try to output our money, to save our short-interval profit." wake up! this politics will apparently kill bitcoin far soon than somewhere in 2012, @ 50-to-20 BTC per block switch. |
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