Bitcoin, and most alt-coins, are still in a free fall. This will continue to occur until a number of traders/investors are "shaken out" of the market. There is still a gross over supply of miners and losing investors willing to dump at low prices as panic (the inverse of FOMO) kicks into high gear. My guess is that we have at least another $1500-3000 drop. Once BTC hits mid to high 3k and the Alt-coins are halved from here, then we will see a new base develop. And after sometime at that base, then we can see a new bull market. But that will take a year or two from here. Sad but too likely, as I'm long BTC too.
Well, I'm a bit more optimistic. By the look and feel of it, there is not much extra supply left in the markets. Honestly, I don't know what you mean by the oversupply of miners - they have always been there as well as the coins they mine - but weak hands, which you refer to, should have already been shaken out by now. Look, when the price had first crashed below $6,000 in early February, it actually felt like a genuine panic sell-off. That was for real. Now it feels quite different as if there is plenty of resilience in the market. So, unless a major bearwhale off-loads massively, the price is not very likely to drop below $5,000 on its own. |
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I am 50/50 on this. Is it a good chance to buy and we won't see 6k again or is it a huge risk and it might crash to 2k or even to nothing. Are people buying now or just watching and waiting. There does seem a big volume of Bitcoin changing hands today compared to the last couple of weeks. Are they buying or selling. Why has it gone down so much at the moment. So many questions and few answers. I think it's looking a very risky business at the moment.
One thing is for sure. It's not going to "nothing". Bitcoin prices is falling alot, that is true. However, it will find a bottom somewhere, maybe at $2k as you said, move sideways for a bit(most likely when most people in the market start saying that there's going to be more dumps coming), then start its first real rally upwards to establish the bullish trend. This will happen at some stage, but nobody knows when it's going to happen. For now, we're still bearish. I'm afraid that at some stage it may not happen already. Today is not like it was 4 years ago when there was only Bitcoin and nothing else - well, this is not quite true but you get the point. What I'm trying to say is that there might be a point of no return after which no comeback is possible. Obviously, I refer to Bitcoin here as it should be abundantly clear that crypto is not going to die in the foreseeable future. Apart from that, we shouldn't completely discard the possibility of a whale going crazy dumping his stash of coins on the market and driving prices to double or even single digits as a result. |
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I'm just waiting on the sidelines currently, and with the way how things are going right now, it;s obviously not the best time to buy right now. This isn't like the February crash that had us at $6000. It feels more subtle compared to that crash, which makes me worry about this being a gradual decline over the course of a few weeks. There also seems to be no signs of life from the bulls in the mean time and the overall market sentiment is negative. Strings of negatively-interpreted news also contributed to the gloom we are facing right now. Best thing to do is to don't do anything yet.
That's what I'm thinking myself. We are basically repeating events of 2014, though at a somewhat accelerated playback. Back then, the price also had made a few major rebounds on its way to the bottom. However, I can't fully agree that we shouldn't do anything because volatility is not going away. But volatility is the best friend as well as the worst enemy of a trader, depending on which side of the trade you are on, right or wrong. |
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If barter became the dominant medium of exchange that would be taxed too, indeed it is in many a place. It doesn't matter if no money changed hands, the tax man still attributes a value to the transaction and wants his cut.
It may not work in practice as good as you may think. For instance, what if someone wants to exchange a live cow for two live sheep, how are the taxes to be determined and collected in that case? Should the tax collector cut out a pound of flesh from the cow and two pounds from the sheep? Also, why should there be a need to tax transactions in the first place? Are such transactions taxed now? |
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I am 50/50 on this. Is it a good chance to buy and we won't see 6k again or is it a huge risk and it might crash to 2k or even to nothing. Are people buying now or just watching and waiting. There does seem a big volume of Bitcoin changing hands today compared to the last couple of weeks. Are they buying or selling. Why has it gone down so much at the moment. So many questions and few answers. I think it's looking a very risky business at the moment.
I don't know whether it worth buying now, and I think no one knows that for certain, but if there is a big trading volume it means that some people are selling while other people are buying in massive amounts. It is impossible for any asset to be only sold or bought. There is always a buyer and a seller in a trade. However, if the price goes down, it means there are not enough buyers at the current price, and to process the outstanding supply, the price needs to go down. Obviously, it works in reverse as well. |
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Yes, great point! The catch is that for something to become a currency, it has to have much much lower volatility than bitcoin has now. I'm not going to buy coffee for bitcoin if I can see that it can possibly 1) buy 2 coffees using the same amount in a week, or 2) I could have bought 2 coffees for the same amount a week ago. When the price stabilizes then it will be much more viable as a method of payment. Although to be fair, I do use bitcoin as a method of payment every now and then, by converting fiat into btc, and buying the thing right away, so it doesn't have time to change value significantly. That works, but it's cumbersome, can have a lot of fees and of course, that's not the point of crypto. So, I guess we'll be waiting for some big institutional money to come into crypto, which will cause more adoption, which will cause the price to stabilize in the end after having a big climb  Myself, I don't believe that prices are going to stabilize if - and this is a big if - institutional money comes into crypto. Really, why would high-caliber investors want that? Some have tried, like the Winklevoss twins, and how much did it help stabilize prices? Not in the slightest, I daresay. On the contrary, there is strong empirical evidence, as the Mt. Gox trustee has shown us, that at high prices whales are more willing to sell off and get the fuck out. It looks like we need many more such cycles to shake them out of their coins. And the positive outcome is still not set in stone. |
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Above all of your point of view, may I know if majority of bitcoin users really HODLing their coins? If you will only based on the statement or discussions here in the community or whenever you see some on social media then I don't see any sense here. As if those HODL coins by an average player scan make an impact on the whole bitcoin volume on the whole as they hold. If HODL mentality kills the currency aspect of bitcoin then why it isn't happening now or before? Make sense. There is enough what is called circumstantial evidence. Indeed, you may disagree but the consensus has it that I'm right, after all. Apart from that, I've written everything in the first post. If people buy bitcoins on exchanges, it is unlikely that they will be spending them en masse. So the only option that remains now when the prices are falling is HODLing. Just claiming that something is not the case on the basis there is seemingly no real stats is not much better until you yourself provide these "real stats". Otherwise, it is a moot point in general. Unless we look at the circumstantial evidence, of course. For example, all big wallets are known, and coins there are not moving anywhere, so they are HODLing. |
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Well, it is not so much about him selling the remaining 160k Mt. Gox coins he has in his wallet as about the fear that many, if not all, buyers of crypto now have because of him. It doesn't even matter if the price crash as of recent was actually due to his massive sell-off, though the evidence seems to be overwhelming. In fact, he may not even sell them at all, not a single satoshi, though this is unlikely given the circumstances, but people will still think that one day he goes nuts about selling these coins at any price, and then prices will be halved again extremely fast. Therefore, Bitcoin won't rise until these coins are gone for good, burned or otherwise disposed of, and people become confident and positive again.
I think it's confirmed that he sold big amounts at the exact times that we saw these sharp red candles, and they tracked the amounts coming from MtGox addresses... Mr Kobayashi is a direct attack on Bitcoin. Trace Mayer or someone with influence on Kraken should tell him to get the fuck out immediately, they need to go OTC, this cannot be tolerated. if they cannot get their shit together soon, someone else will. A guy with that many coins with only one mission: to crush the market, is a target. He needs to go OTC and he needs go OTC now. Even if he isn't dumping anymore, everyone is paranoid about until the japanese government makes an official statement about what they are going to do. I agree with you so much. However, how do we know that he didn't actually try to sell the coins off the market first? He may in fact have tried but there might not have been enough buyers or the price was not as good as he would get in the open market. Let's not forget also that he started selling at or near the top. And that was 20k dollars, not something that you would easily sneeze at or dismiss lightly. Was there anyone willing to buy that many bitcoins at so high a price in the first place? This is the question we should ask ourselves before making sweeping accusations. Besides, it is a free market after all, isn't it? He had the chance to go the OTC way, since Kraken offered that anyway based on what I read, but he rejected it and decided to load them up on exchanged and then dump them without even bothering what effect it could have on the market. He really waited for the top to dump hard first, and then slowly dropping further. I wish the court can order him to do his stuff over the counter, but I am not a legal practitioner anyway and I do not know if that can even fly. I understand what people feel when you see your capital halved and then halved again. In fact, I've been there myself. But I still can't accept this logic that he should have sold his coins off the market. It is a free market, isn't it? Okay, the court or whatever orders him not to sell on exchanges and what's next? Should we then ban all bear-whales whose total amount of coins exceeds a certain number from selling their stashes as well? If so, why not implement such a policy on the blockchain directly and limit the amount of coins to be allowed for transfer by some arbitrary number? |
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I do not agree that the price of bitcoin does not matter. Everyone who says this need to ask what is the significance, such as the dollar. Governments have long used the uncontrolled emission mechanism. If all the dollars in the world are returned to America, this country's economy will collapse in one day. Therefore, the American government supports the theft and withdrawal of capital from other countries. The bitcoin price is more motivated than the dollar price.
I think this is a very naive approach. Even in the worst case scenario, that would mean the depreciation of the American dollar only, and not a collapse of the American economy by any means. Money plays an important role but its use and application is still purely utilitarian. When you see hyperinflation break out here and there, it is primarily because of the overall economic debacle and social fracture, not just the collapse of the monetary system itself or it being the main cause of the economic devastation. |
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It seems like only a small fraction of bitcoins as well as other cryptocurrencies gets earned while the vast majority of the coins are bought. But when people buy coins, they obviously aim exclusively at selling them later at a higher price, which is what speculation basically consists in because it makes no economic sense to buy a cryptocurrency to spend it on goods when people can easily spend fiat instead. However, if the price goes down, people aren't going to spend their coins either. And whenever someone complains about prices going down, the only reply they receive is just to hold to their precious bitcoins, no matter what the price could or would be. I have yet to meet anyone telling these bag holders to spend their stashes on something useful.
Apparently, the HODL mentality kills the currency aspect of Bitcoin.
Basically we invest in order to earn. It would be a bluff if you are going to invest and loss everything. No matter what you say, he mindset of every investor is to have profit in their investment. So how can they profit in their investment if the price is going down? The answer is HODL. That is how you can benefit from it. This is not necessarily so. If people could actually spend their coins on goods they need or services they require, it may in fact be a viable option. Even though that would be a purely psychological thing, of course. I mean spending crypto directly would be effectively the same as selling the coins for fiat and then spending the proceeds, but it would feel completely different. You wouldn't have to go through all the psychological stress and suffering of accepting your losses, so your ego wouldn't be hurt very much, if at all. |
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There was a time when there were advertisements on /r/bitcoin and people used to consider Bitcoin as "Magic Internet Money". There were discussions on Bitcoin transaction fees vs that of Western Unions, people performing micro transactions and tipping each other (Changetip) and discussions on how remittances and sending Bitcoins via SMS would be possible. All of these changed when the price of Bitcoin started rising sharply and countries Governing bodies started classifying Bitcoins as cryptoassets or some form of "stock" or "Derivative" to trade as. This switch in thinking and rise in price (sometime in 2016-2017) lead people to "HODL" through it and it's a common technique used for a "Get Rich Quick" cycle. I think the current dip is price is an excellent price correction and I feel when there's more stability in price, there's lower transaction fees and less panic transactions happen. This should allow people to transaction more and I believe as long as the price of Bitcoin comes into factor (with a possibility of a rise) there's always the possibility that people will save rather than spend.
Missed this post somehow. All in all, I agree with your point, and in fact I remember the overall message back then even though I hadn't been much interested in crypto myself at that point. Honestly, your train of thought resonates well with my own understanding and ideas. We may need lower prices - maybe back to 3 digits - to make Bitcoin great again, so to speak. Great as a currency, not as a vehicle for speculation, obviously. |
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In fact, I wonder if bitcoin has changed the way or the end goal. After the success and especially in 2017. bitcoin value is reversed when constantly encountered obstacles from communication, facebook, google, mtgox ... We all know that, Hold is the most beneficial thing for business. Because of the nature of the supply is dispersed and waiting from the miners. That is the right business perspective and profitability is the goal of all. It will not affect the bitcoin characteristics.
I decline to accept this attitude as "the right business perspective", let alone "profitability for all" aspect of it simply because it is impossible for everyone to be or stay profitable in speculation. Bitcoin - as well as other cryptocurrencies - is essentially a zero-sum game as told by many and many times. And as I explained in OP, the HODL mentality is in fact quite detrimental for the long-term success of the whole crypto scene even though it may provide transitory, short-lived benefits for speculators and short-term investors. |
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I'm sorry but that claim has little, if anything, to do with reality. People buy jewelry exclusively as ornamentations such as rings, chainlets, earrings, necklaces, etc. In fact, this is the very definition of jewelry. For investment purposes people buy gold bars and coins because jewelry is not very useful as a store of value. When you buy a piece of jewelry, the price of gold in it amounts only to a certain percentage. It is mostly craftwork, anyway. And if you decide to sell it, you won't be able to get the purchase price.
If that was true then imitations made with non-precious metals and gems would be valued equally. What I said is the reality. Gold derives its value from finite supply and the fact you can't fake it, just like Bitcoin. You offer a perfect example of what is called a non sequitur. High price for genuine jewelry doesn't mean that people buy it for the purpose of investing. It is simply pointless from an economic view-point. Those who are investing in precious metals buy coins and bars. Or do you seriously believe that when two people marry, they buy gold rings for investment purposes? Note that I don't reject the fact that high demand for gold and low supply of it account for the high prices of this precious metal. But the demand comes mostly from the glamor and personal adornment industry, but that has nothing to do with investing in precious metals. |
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Gold has more than enough real value and utility, for example, as jewelry. If I'm not mistaken, over 50% of all gold produced annually is used in jewelry across the world. Apart from that, such countries as India, China, and Russia are ready to buy massive amounts of gold whenever its price declines a bit. In fact, only around 15% or so of all gold in the world is held by central banks and governments. In other words, there is real demand for it which supports its price at pretty constant levels.
Gold's only utility beyond a store of wealth is as a shiny pet rock. People buy gold jewellery precisely for the reason that it does store wealth. It is easy to resell and recover your investment +/- change in gold price. I'm sorry but that claim has little, if anything, to do with reality. People buy jewelry exclusively as ornamentations such as rings, chainlets, earrings, necklaces, etc. In fact, this is the very definition of jewelry. For investment purposes people buy gold bars and coins because jewelry is not very useful as a store of value. When you buy a piece of jewelry, the price of gold in it amounts only to a certain percentage. It is mostly craftwork, anyway. And if you decide to sell it, you won't be able to get the purchase price. |
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The truth is that bitcoin is not moving much as it did before, i do not know why this is really happening, but in my opinion, bitcoin will always survive, at least, for now..
Bitcoin has survived last ~9 years then why not for another 10 years. Fundamentals are stronger and need of such an innovation is very high then obviously bitcoin will survive regardless of whatever extreme fluctuations bitcoin may have. I don't think anyone is going to challenge that point, that Bitcoin will go on. Still, we should remember about two things. First, despite what many people would love to think and see, Bitcoin's price won't rise indefinitely and infinitely since there is a limit to its growth, even a speculative one. And, second, many won't quite like what they are going to see. If we strip Bitcoin of speculation, I'm afraid, there will be nothing much left, in terms of price as well. Right now, we are probably moving to its fair price determined by its real life utility. |
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From my perspective, it is an erroneous attitude. Real value comes from real usage, while speculation doesn't belong here. When people keep on holding, it limits the amount of bitcoins being traded - that's definitely true. And although it contributes to a higher price, this price rise doesn't add anything to real value. What it actually contributes to in the long run is extreme volatility because, as I said, supply diminishes and markets become more susceptible to liquidity storms.
So by that logic, gold has limited real value as it has limited real usage and the amount of gold being held in reserves by central banks makes gold more susceptible to liquidity storms. Gold has more than enough real value and utility, for example, as jewelry. If I'm not mistaken, over 50% of all gold produced annually is used in jewelry across the world. Apart from that, such countries as India, China, and Russia are ready to buy massive amounts of gold whenever its price declines a bit. In fact, only around 15% or so of all gold in the world is held by central banks and governments. In other words, there is real demand for it which supports its price at pretty constant levels. |
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But anyway if seen from the basic of the effort, it's really not a gamble, it's more dependent on the expertise in analyzing the prices over time as well as choosing the right coins to be used as a trading effort. This is not a game such as in a gambling, which's only dependent on lucky (not strategy), and I think the luckies in trading depends on expertise on the price analys, it's different with a gambling that's just dependent on the game which's really randomly and testing our luckies.
Right, trading is also not like gambling for me because of the mere fact that you can control how much profit you earned by using analysis before making any decisions. In trading, you can make sure that there is a profit unlike in gambling where there is totally no assurance and just luck. Some are saying that mathematics can be used to win gambling games but I think that it was very imaginative. It is pretty easy to control how much you earn provided you earn anything in the first place. But most traders are losing most of the time, sorry. It is the net result that counts in the end. Everyone knows that they should buy low and sell high, but sometimes, well, actually oftentimes it ends the other way round. In short, unless you are a market maker, money taker, or their close friend, you can't make sure that there is a profit, for you. |
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It seems like only a small fraction of bitcoins as well as other cryptocurrencies gets earned while the vast majority of the coins are bought. But when people buy coins, they obviously aim exclusively at selling them later at a higher price, which is what speculation basically consists in because it makes no economic sense to buy a cryptocurrency to spend it on goods when people can easily spend fiat instead. However, if the price goes down, people aren't going to spend their coins either. And whenever someone complains about prices going down, the only reply they receive is just to hold to their precious bitcoins, no matter what the price could or would be. I have yet to meet anyone telling these bag holders to spend their stashes on something useful.
Apparently, the HODL mentality kills the currency aspect of Bitcoin.
Actually its not destroying bitcoins but people who are holding their coins and not selling it in the market are really making the price of bitcoins increase even further because the demand is increasing but the supply is locked so expect a higher price when people is keep on holding. From my perspective, it is an erroneous attitude. Real value comes from real usage, while speculation doesn't belong here. When people keep on holding, it limits the amount of bitcoins being traded - that's definitely true. And although it contributes to a higher price, this price rise doesn't add anything to real value. What it actually contributes to in the long run is extreme volatility because, as I said, supply diminishes and markets become more susceptible to liquidity storms. It really comes down to utility vs price, holding is good for the price but it harms the potential for bitcoin to have a high utility. The holding contributes to speculation which leads to wild price swings that make bitcoin near unusable as a currency and limit its utility. Without some utility holding will become a pointless and useless exercise because there will be no demand. And we seem to have already reached the point of saturation from where we can only roll downhill with minor rebounds and reversals. However, we can't deny the fact that crypto is quite useful in payments across the globe. Everyone knows its advantages and benefits, so there's no need to repeat them. It is quite possible that the most of Bitcoin's current price is due to plain speculation but the transactional utility is real and it won't go away just because of price hitting the floor. That thing accommodates at least some room for hope. |
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Well, your submission is not far from the truth and that is the only factor that will help grow the market value of bitcoin not doubt.
Holding is one of the main purposes of bitcoin. I'm also attracted to the opportunity to keep my savings in bitcoins. I don't care about the price. I'm more interested in protecting my savings from inflation and from banks. We never know when a Bank could go broke and disappear with our money. Ahm! First of all what you talking about is the process of storing your assets in terms of store value. Bitcoin being the store value here and its price is regardless of that because over the time your bitocin stays as it is. However, I don't agree upon using bitcoin in that way because it's not the real prupsoe of it and it will surely kill the bitcoin over time. Just imagine what happens when people are storing the fiat hidden from the government called as black money form. This disturbs the whole ecsosyemt of the country and thus development halts and we get pressurised about not having proper development, amaenties and much more. Same can happen with the bitcoin over the time if it is held as it is. If it did not move from one place to other then it will not grow. I don't think that exactly the same can happen. It just can't possibly happen because Bitcoin, as well as other cryptocurrencies, for that matter, doesn't facilitate the exchange of goods, so there is nothing to disturb or destroy economically-wise on the scale of the whole economy of a country. At max, Bitcoin will kill itself, and probably a few other cryptocurrencies, but that's pretty much all. There is basically nothing more to die for. |
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And there's more to it than you think. It is not just about some dude selling his stash of bitcoins and getting done with that. It is an example of how fast and how much the price will crash when a bearwhale decides to off-load his massive piggy bank of bitcoins. People are scared away from buying Bitcoin, this is for real and likely to stay for long. In other words, selling the last Mt. Gox coins won't be enough because the damage has been done already. And it may take years to undo it.
You're making a bigger deal out of it than needed. This market has always had massive holders, and despite the fact that almost everyone with a functioning brain is already aware of it, the market keeps going up. Exchanges have always had the worst possible liquidity. Roger Ver, Jihan Wu, Winklevoss twins, Mark Karpeles, Satoshi, you name it, they all can sink the market back to double digits within 2 seconds. Important difference is that every well thinking whale doesn't unload his coins on an exchange and lose out on quite a serious amount of capital because of how much you need to tank the market to sell everything. The far majority of the whales sell their coins outside the regular markets to private buyers through the OTC market. Markets are in fact quite irrational, and as John Keynes aptly put it, they can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. It is one thing to know about the existence of whales like the Winklevii twins, Satoshi, etc, and a completely different one to feel their impact with your own skin or rather money. Whales may unload their stashes for various reasons and losing a serious amount of capital may not even be a concern for some of them. This is what people now came to understand, that it is only a matter of time. It looks like you see only what you want to see. |
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