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61  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 22, 2018, 08:33:31 PM


Does this mean they got CFTC approval?
62  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 21, 2018, 05:21:30 PM
Decided to edumakate myself with a little weekend research on Bakkt and promptly fell into a rabbit hole.

Bakkt could certainly have a far larger near-term impact than Cboe or any others' ETF, as they are targeting both consumers and institutions in the same go. Having Starbucks as a partner could be a real game changer, the epitome of retail transaction exposure.

Also good to see some of the more disillusioned Wall Street veterans changing teams to root for crypto, and putting pressure on the SEC/CFTC to not fuck it all up.

Overall, I'm feeling more medium-to-long term bullish with Bakkt coming, although I think the year end price will end up as a wash. Hard to compete with the US midterm elections and other geopolitical turmoil, news wise. A rather inopportune time for Bakkt's release or a crypto bull run.

New Bakkt Venture Could Make Bitcoin As Mainstream As Starbucks
https://www.forbes.com/sites/norbertmichel/2018/08/13/new-bakkt-venture-could-make-bitcoin-as-mainstream-as-starbucks/#57b98c7436c8

Bitcoin Experts Pin Price Hopes On Early November -- Here's Why
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2018/09/04/bitcoin-experts-pin-price-hopes-on-early-november-heres-why/#599997702256

Bitcoin Core Developer Joins Forces With Former Morgan Stanley Exec To Warn SEC
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2018/09/21/bitcoin-core-developer-joins-forces-with-former-morgan-stanley-exec-to-warn-sec/#7dd9ce435baf

Quote
“We believe that current SEC rules surrounding custody do not reflect the risks inherent in managing digital assets and do not use the technical strengths of the technology. These technical strengths have the potential to lead to a stronger, more robust custody environment. To better understand these possibilities, to build to strengths of technologies, and to not harm its advantages, we recommend that the SEC engage with those who are experienced with technology, such as cryptographic engineers, software developers, Bitcoin exchanges, smart-contract designers, blockchain developers, and existing digital-asset managers to ensure best practices are implemented.”

Just a week after Caitlin Long, a co-author of the letter, first expressed similar concerns in an article on Forbes, Bakkt CEO Kelly Loeffler published a blog further elaborating on the planned cryptocurrency exchange services. In the post Loeffler clarified that the “bitcoin contract will not be traded on margin, use leverage, or serve to create a paper claim on a real asset.” If the exchange follows the guidelines Loeffler laid out, it would put an end to many of the concerns expressed in the letter.

More articles from Caitlin Long:

ICE Creating New Cryptocurrency Market: A Double-Edged Sword
https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/2018/08/03/ice-creating-new-cryptocurrency-market-a-double-edged-sword/#5f0b5ebb1015

Quote
But it’s also a double-edged sword, because it’s likely the beginning of Wall Street creating financial claims to bitcoin out of thin air (and not backed by actual bitcoins), which could offset some of Bitcoin’s algorithmically-enforced scarcity.

Thankfully, for existing bitcoin investors, HODLers are likely to make that difficult by storing most bitcoins outside of the financial system and making it the epitome of “hard to borrow.”

Two Wall Street Terms Every Bitcoin Trader Needs To Learn Now
https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/2018/08/13/the-r-and-c-words-enter-the-vocabulary-of-bitcoin-enthusiasts/#2ac0677a68f3

Quote
The “R” and “C” words, rehypothecation and commingling, are as antithetical to how Bitcoin works as they are integral to how Wall Street works.

Three part series exploring building rivalry between cryptocurrencies and Wall St by same author, pretty enlightening perspectives:

ICOs Were 45% Of IPOs In Q2 2018, As Cryptos Disrupt Investment Banks
https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/2018/07/22/icos-were-45-of-ipos-in-q2-2018-as-cryptos-disrupt-investment-banks/#63cd8619794c

Quote
Cryptocurrency capital markets--which are less than 3 years old--are challenging the supremacy of traditional investment banks for raising new capital, as they raised 45% of the amount raised by traditional IPOs (initial public offerings) during Q2 2018.

Incumbents have been complacent about the rise of cryptocurrency markets and ultimately will not take this trend lightly.

Is Financialization A Double-Edged Sword For Bitcoin And Cryptocurrencies?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/2018/07/31/is-financialization-a-double-edged-sword-for-bitcoin-and-cryptocurrencies/#79a299402a20

Quote
Will HODLers permit the financialization of cryptocurrencies?

So far, only the good type of financialization is happening in cryptocurrency markets. Leverage-based financialization is not happening—yet.

Racing To Fix Wall Street: ICE, Cryptocurrencies And Enterprise Blockchain
https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/2018/08/07/racing-to-fix-wall-street-ice-cryptocurrencies-and-enterprise-blockchain/#3f2e9033215e

Quote
ICE’s move renders many of Wall Street’s enterprise blockchain projects obsolete

Short of this, the SEC and CFTC should beware of the heightened risks with allowing clearinghouses, custodians and warehouses to hold cryptocurrencies in omnibus accounts. They instantly become “honeypots” for hackers.

The Bakkt Blog, CEO Kelly Loeffler
https://medium.com/bakkt-blog

Quote
We’re taking a transparent approach to engage across the industry as we begin testing and onboarding in November, and trading and warehousing in December, subject to CFTC approval.

Our patent-pending market model is focused on mitigating risk while creating opportunities for institutions to serve their clients in a regulated framework for digital assets. This means creating a solution that both provides wanted exposure and limits unwanted exposure. A critical aspect of our model is ensuring that our clearing members are well protected from a risk perspective through a conservative market design, including:

o a requirement of full prefunding for all Bitcoin trades

o allowing clients to onboard directly to the warehouse, meaning that clearing members will not be required to handle cryptocurrency themselves, and

o a new, separate guaranty fund for Bitcoin, fully funded by Bakkt and ICE, helps ensure that non-defaulting clearing member capital is not at risk in the waterfall

These points should also eliminate misconceptions regarding commingling, leverage and rehypothecation, which are not features of our offering. We are committed to serving the market in a productive and secure manner as customer needs and regulatory frameworks evolve.

Moo(n).
63  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 21, 2018, 04:29:55 PM

For those who don't catch the reference, here are the best 10 minutes you will ever waste on your life:

Rejected
https://youtu.be/MuOvqeABHvQ

Basically mirrors all the ludicrous activity on Wall Observer.

Including the hats.

Jesus. Where were you when I was on acid...

Haha, did you want a bad trip?

Try watching Baraka on acid, oh lord. I could only make it through 15 mins.
64  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 21, 2018, 04:18:56 AM

 I hope this is what you had in mind.  This was one of the toughest jobs yet!

 

Nice! Awesome job, thanks Homes!




For those who don't catch the reference, here are the best 10 minutes you will ever waste on your life:

Rejected
https://youtu.be/MuOvqeABHvQ

Basically mirrors all the ludicrous activity on Wall Observer.

Including the hats.
65  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 15, 2018, 07:58:48 PM
Let's reflect on what happened today.

  • There was the start of a run on Bitfinex, which triggered a pump on Bitcoin
  • Fidelity has announced various institutional Bitcoin services
  • Legacy markets are unstable, with another financial crisis expected "soon"

What happens when the next financial crisis hits, and a proportion of the world's financial institutions all try to run on the banks into Bitcoin?


66  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 15, 2018, 07:22:39 PM
Fidelity, the $2.5 trillion Wall Street giant, is launching a brand new institutional brokerage and custody business for crypto

https://theblockcrypto.com/2018/10/15/fidelity-the-2-5-trillion-wall-street-giant-is-launching-a-brand-new-institutional-brokerage-and-custody-business-for-crypto/

Fidelity Launches Institutional Platform For Bitcoin And Ethereum

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2018/10/15/fidelity-launches-institutional-platform-for-bitcoin-and-ethereum/#5319f43f93c4

Fidelity just made it easier for hedge funds and other pros to invest in cryptocurrencies

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/fidelity-launches-trade-execution-and-custody-for-cryptocurrencies.html

Quote
Fidelity Investments, which administers more than $7.2 trillion in client assets, announced a new and separate company called Fidelity Digital Asset Services Monday.

Okay, this is very bullish.

Who needs a stinking ETF once the big boys come to town?

Can you imagine if this announcement had come a year ago? The bull run might never have stopped.

Fidelity has been visionary in the crypto space since early on; it's been more than a year since linked Coinbase balances starting showing up in Fidelity accounts.

As it is, news like this is hardly a fart in the wind these days.

It's amazing how institutionally mainstream Bitcoin is becoming right below our noses, and yet the masses still sleep, butt-hurt as ever for perhaps buying the peak and selling too soon (probably to the very institutions they distrusted in the first place).

Fidelity is a privately held company. They don't answer to no stinkin' shareholders or quarterly reports. They are out to conquer Millennial investors, and embracing crypto may launch them well past their competitors into the future.

This is who you have to thank, boys: Abby Johnson, chair and CEO of Fidelity. Bitcoin may largely be a man's world, but we owe a lot of respect to the Abby Johnsons, Elizabeth Starks, and Hester Peirces of the world. They actually get shit done when and where it matters. Fuck you, Jamie Dimon.



One-on-one with Abby Johnson, Fidelity's ultra-private president
http://fortune.com/2014/06/02/one-on-one-with-fidelitys-ultra-private-president/

Fidelity CEO Abigail Johnson says the company is mining cryptocurrencies (1 year ago)
https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/28/fidelity-ceo-abigail-johnson-says-the-company-is-mining-cryptocurrencies/

Fidelity CEO Talks 'Love' For Bitcoin, Why Blockchain Will 'Change' Markets (1.5 years ago)
https://www.coindesk.com/fidelity-ceo-talks-love-bitcoin-blockchain-will-change-markets/
67  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2018, 11:08:08 PM
Bad day for crypto? Ohh... Wait

https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec_all

At least today, Bitcoin held up admirably as an non-correlated asset. A unicorn amidst the carnage. A virgin in the whorehouse.

Maybe tomorrow, investors will notice.
68  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 09, 2018, 08:35:40 PM
Well. Drinking is back on the menu, men.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/bitcoin-on-the-brink-of-an-implosion-researcher-juniper-says

Crypto Industry on ‘Brink of an Implosion,’ Researcher Says
Do they know about segwit transactions? :-)

Maybe they don't even know about the forks/airdrops that forced everyone to move ALL their coins to claim them nor many other factors that were happening during that time (spam, ridiculous FOMO, etc).... Or they do and they just don't care because the only thing that matters is the dramatic headline.

Do they know about wash trading?

Do they know that mining difficulty is actually rising, not falling?

Do they know that exchanges are in bed with mega miners?

Do they know that all exchanges would dump literally every shitcoin they have (to drum up extra money) before they'd start selling their precious bitcoin?

Do they know that *we* know that when they start printing the really doom & gloom articles, the bottom is likely in?

Hit the nail on the head:

Institutional Investors Are Using Back Door for Crypto Buys (1 Oct 2018)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/institutional-investors-are-using-back-door-for-crypto-purchases

Big Institutional Investors are Buying Large Amounts of Bitcoin in OTC Market (3 Oct 2018)
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/10/03/big-institutional-investors-are-buying-large-amounts-of-bitcoin-in-otc-market/

Bitcoin is now a rich man's game.

2018 marks the transition from small-time retail hype to the beginning of savvy institutional/money-bags hype.

Exchanges are becoming less and less relevant as larger transactions are moving off-exchange at a premium to current exchange prices.

When the next big bull run does happen, small time retail buyers may be shut out due to a lack of supply or basic transaction access.
What little may be available on-exchange during a bull-run will likely fetch a hefty premium.
The next generation of HODLers will be laughing all the way to the exchange OTC.

IMHO, we are in the midst of large-scale coordinated institutional manipulation leading up the next halving/ETF/choose your own hype spark:

1. First rule of Institutional Bitcoin: you don't talk about Institutional Bitcoin.
2. Quietly buy up all the mining supply via OTC back channels or in-house Bitcoin brokers.
[Optional: Fund bogus studies, ban ads, ban credit card & retail bank sales, and fling FUD near and wide to throw your competition off scent. JP Morgan, Chase, Juniper Research, Google, Twitter, etc.]
3. HODL and wait for the next hype-fueled bull run.
4. SHORT futures like mad and then SODL at the peak.
5. Rinse and repeat.

Quote from: Articles
According to Cho, high net-worth individuals and institutions are using the OTC market to process trades that exceed $100,000, which based on the current price of Bitcoin at $6,500 is around 15.38 BTC.

“What that’s showing you is the professionalization that’s happening across the board in this space. The Wild West days of crypto are really turning the corner,” Cho said, speaking to Bloomberg.

“We’ve seen triple-digit growth enrolling in our OTC business," said Jeremy Allaire, chief executive office of Boston-based Circle Internet Financial. “That’s a big growth area."

Cho explained that the stability in the price of Bitcoin and the valuation of the crypto market can be attributed to the entrance of institutional investors and high profile traders into the space, which has corresponded with the strengthening of market infrastructure.

“One of the biggest criticisms of crypto by institutional investors has been the volatility. Over the last four to six months, the market has been trading in a very tight range, and that’s seems to be corresponding with traditional financial institutions becoming more comfortable diving into the space,” Cho said.

Cumberland’s parent company, DRW Holdings, disclosed that more than 33 percent of the company’s OTC market trades were processed during Asia hours, suggesting that large miners like Bitmain’s Antpool and BTC.com are regularly liquidating Bitcoin generated from their mining operations.

"If they are liquidating [coins], they are liquidating them via OTC," said Tom Flake, founder of Bcause, a provider of mining facilities whose customers are institutional miners with hundreds to thousands of machines. The largest miners also sell their coins to sellers directly or through brokers.

One of the biggest reasons to buy coins outside of exchanges, though, is that there are often not as many coins offered for sale as the institutional buyers would like to buy, according to Sam Doctor, managing director and head of data science research at Fundstrat Global Advisers.

“At this point in time, because more and more institutions are beginning to enter the market, there’s more of an imbalance,” Doctor said. That’s why brokerage firms are springing up to help institutional buyers find inventory, he said.

What’s more, miners can offer something unique: brand-new, “virgin” coins, which some investors covet. Such coins command a premium of up to 20 percent, according to Travis Kling, founder of the hedge fund Ikigai. It’s easier to prove they’ve not been involved in money-laundering operations, he said.
69  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 27, 2018, 05:46:28 PM
Would someone please chip in a few bucks for the cause and bring us over $6500, please? Thank you.

At $6500, we are ~13% off bottom (@$5775) and ~13% from crossing the daily 200 MA (@$7375).

Purgatory.


I'd rather look at the last higher low which is 7429$ on Bitfinex. We have crossed the 200 MA a few times already and it was pretty worthless.

We may have crossed the 200 EMA but we have not crossed the 200 MA since March. EMAs put too much emphasis on recent data IMO and are agreed of less worth.

In each of the last three cases, if we had reached the previous "higher low", we would have breached the 200 MA. The band is getting narrower and narrower.

Once we do breach, might send a pretty bullish signal.

ps. $6500! Thanks for whoever chipped in.
70  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 27, 2018, 05:20:05 PM
Would someone please chip in a few bucks for the cause and bring us over $6500, please? Thank you.

At $6500, we are ~13% off bottom (@$5775) and ~13% from crossing the daily 200 MA (@$7375).

Purgatory.

71  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 21, 2018, 04:21:27 PM
Hey, let's attempt to crowdsource a bitcointalk response to the SEC's request for further comments on the recently postponed Cboe/SolidX/VanEck ETF proposal. Collectively, I bet we've got an entire cogent brain amongst the likes of us.

Whatever useful comments make it to this thread, I'd say is fair game for anyone to beg, borrow, steal, quote, or plagiarize for their own personal responses to the SEC.

I'll parse out the SEC's 18 wordier-than-even-wordy-man's question topics below. Feel strongly about any of them? Spit it out.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5034689.0

72  Economy / Speculation / Re: Respond to the SEC's Questions Re: Cboe/SolidX/VanEck ETF Proposal on: September 21, 2018, 04:16:24 PM
18. The Exchange states that the Trust will maintain crime, excess crime, and excess vault risk insurance coverage underwritten by various insurance carriers that will cover the entirety of the Trust’s bitcoin holdings. The Exchange further states that, while the Trust is confident in its system for securing its bitcoin, insurance coverage of all of the Trust’s bitcoin holdings eliminates exposure to the risk of loss to investors through fraud or theft, which in turn eliminates most of the custodial issues associated with a series of Commodity-Based Trust Shares based on bitcoin. What are commenters’ views of whether the proposed insurance coverage would affect trading in the Shares or in the underlying bitcoins? What are commenters’ views regarding the Trust’s proposed security, control, and insurance measures?
73  Economy / Speculation / Re: Respond to the SEC's Questions Re: Cboe/SolidX/VanEck ETF Proposal on: September 21, 2018, 04:16:14 PM
17. What are commenters’ views on the Exchange’s assertion that, even though the Trust would not comply with the minimum number of shares outstanding required by Exchange rules, the policy concerns underlying that requirement would be otherwise mitigated in the case of the Trust, because the lower number of Shares is merely a function of the price of the Shares and will have no effect on the creation and redemption process or on arbitrage?
74  Economy / Speculation / Re: Respond to the SEC's Questions Re: Cboe/SolidX/VanEck ETF Proposal on: September 21, 2018, 04:16:05 PM
16. The Exchange represents that that there will be at least 100 Shares outstanding at the time of commencement of trading on the Exchange and that this amount of Shares outstanding at the commencement of trading will be sufficient to provide adequate market liquidity. What are commenters’ views on the Exchange’s assertion that a minimum of 100 Shares outstanding at the time of commencement of trading will be sufficient to provide 17 adequate market liquidity? What are commenters’ views on whether the 100-share minimum would affect the arbitrage mechanism?
75  Economy / Speculation / Re: Respond to the SEC's Questions Re: Cboe/SolidX/VanEck ETF Proposal on: September 21, 2018, 04:15:53 PM
15. According to the Exchange, the Shares will be purchased primarily by institutional and other substantial investors (such as hedge funds, family offices, private wealth managers, and high-net-worth individuals), which will provide additional liquidity and transparency to the bitcoin market in a regulated vehicle such as the Trust. The Exchange asserts that, with an estimated initial per-share price equivalent to 25 bitcoins, the Shares will be costprohibitive for smaller retail investors while allowing larger and generally more sophisticated institutional investors to gain exposure to the price of bitcoin through a regulated product, eliminating the complications and reducing the risk associated with buying and holding bitcoin. What are commenters’ views of the Exchange’s assertions that transacting in the Shares will be geared toward more sophisticated institutional investors and will be cost-prohibitive for smaller retail investors? What are commenters’ views regarding whether broker-dealers are likely to offer fractional shares in the Trust to retail investors, permitting retail investment with a smaller financial commitment? What are commenters’ views of the Exchange’s assertions that the Sponsor believes that demand from new, larger investors accessing bitcoin through investment in the Shares will broaden the investor base in bitcoin, which could further reduce the possibility of collusion among market participants to manipulate the bitcoin market, in light of the possibility that broker-dealers may offer fractional shares to their customers?
76  Economy / Speculation / Re: Respond to the SEC's Questions Re: Cboe/SolidX/VanEck ETF Proposal on: September 21, 2018, 04:15:40 PM
14. The Exchange represents that it has entered into a comprehensive surveillance sharing agreement with the Gemini Exchange. What are commenters’ views on whether the Gemini Exchange is a market of significant size? What are commenters’ views on whether there is a reasonable likelihood that a person attempting to manipulate the proposed ETP would also have to trade on the Gemini Exchange? What are commenters’ views on whether trading in the proposed ETP would be the predominant influence on prices in the Gemini Exchange?
77  Economy / Speculation / Re: Respond to the SEC's Questions Re: Cboe/SolidX/VanEck ETF Proposal on: September 21, 2018, 04:15:31 PM
13. What are commenters’ views on whether the Exchange has entered into a surveillance-sharing agreement with a regulated market of significant size related to bitcoin? What are commenters’ views on the current regulation of bitcoin-related markets? What are commenters’ views on whether markets for listed bitcoin derivatives—such as bitcoin futures markets— are markets of significant size? What are commenters’ views on whether there is a reasonable likelihood that a person attempting to manipulate the proposed ETP would also have to trade on a regulated bitcoin-related market with which the Exchange has a surveillance sharing agreement? What are commenters’ views on whether trading in the proposed ETP would be the predominant influence on prices in a regulated, bitcoin-related market with which the Exchange has a surveillance-sharing agreement?
78  Economy / Speculation / Re: Respond to the SEC's Questions Re: Cboe/SolidX/VanEck ETF Proposal on: September 21, 2018, 04:15:21 PM
12. What are commenters’ views on the Exchange’s representation that the Sponsor estimates that the U.S. dollar OTC bitcoin trading volume globally represents on average approximately 50% of the trading volume of bitcoin traded globally in U.S. dollars on U.S.- dollar-denominated bitcoin exchanges? Is the volume of U.S. dollar trading of bitcoin—which excludes bitcoin trading against other sovereign currencies or digital assets—a meaningful or appropriate measure of bitcoin market volume? Why or why not?
79  Economy / Speculation / Re: Respond to the SEC's Questions Re: Cboe/SolidX/VanEck ETF Proposal on: September 21, 2018, 04:15:10 PM
11. What are commenters’ views on the cost and the efficiency of arbitrage across the various global markets for bitcoin? What are commenters’ views generally with respect to the liquidity and transparency of the bitcoin market, the bitcoin markets’ susceptibility to manipulation, and thus the suitability of bitcoin as an underlying asset for an ETP?
80  Economy / Speculation / Re: Respond to the SEC's Questions Re: Cboe/SolidX/VanEck ETF Proposal on: September 21, 2018, 04:14:56 PM
10. What are commenters’ views on the relationship between trading in the OTC bitcoin market and the wider global bitcoin market? What are commenters’ views on the circumstances pursuant to which the OTC bitcoin market may trade at a premium or discount to the global bitcoin market? What are commenters’ views on whether or not the OTC bitcoin market would provide a measure of insulation from erratic or dislocated trading in the global bitcoin market?
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