it looks nice, but I didn't udnerstood a damn thing. can you eleborate on it a bit more? how "trend" line is calculated (is it just average of all prices? but it's percentages?)


What abs. value when L=0,3809 will be crossed?
What is these gray areas?

I found this theory very interesting
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=474167.0

I'm fairly sure it's not about commission fee, but rather transaction fee which is paid by GOX (and taken from you first, but it's irrelevant for this question)

If anything, it can be moved to the top far right (and some dark/gray fonts might be applied), but please don't hide from the top, cause I think most users open it anyways.




You guys think that removing Gox will bring BTC to the moon? wrong
relevant pic

impressive data in terms of how you collected avg. price points daily

though as we see gox is not much suitable for the price, perhaps it should be switched to stamp(or better start weighting price from some point, like November or someting, with decreasing role of Gox) ?

WHy BTC-e prices different from Bitstamp? Is there no effective arb avaliable or what?

why you forcing to remove gox from this site? it's would be blatantly ignorant action.
maybe Gox is a joke, but it affects other exchanges prices. even though effect is getting much smaller at the moment, but still it exists.

Doo you have any slightest idea of how many btc is stuck on Gox? If Gox will ever enable withdrawals, this will affect prices HUGELY.
And we {will} need to know prices at this moment.

please stop forcing this madness.

cause it's hard to manually count this 100,200,300...
I mean it's not hard but it's not handy.

not user friendly

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

Totally disagree with you!
Please, Bitcoinwisdom, keep MtGox charts at your site.

P.S. on a side note, BTCW, why your market depth is different vs http://btccharts.com/ on Fox data ?

please use log. base =2 for the graphs, it's almost impossible to differ values from 100 to 1000 on such scale.

see my example (with my own random assumptions for dec & jan since it's not published averages)
more lines  = better understanding

mm, such wow

so I guess it was a buy?

or could it be half and half? Like 300 sold and 300 bought?

how did it happened, that BUY for 605 actually started lower then previous sell AND didn't pushed price much?
also strange topping on ~698 which is not logged
today @ bitstamp

Also wonder on this, i.e. why price on Gox dropped?

I wonder why Fox steady going down for the last few days.

Difference between other exchanges reduces, which is a healthy signal for Gox, isn't it?

as I understood, US govnt will ran out of money (again) in the period from 28feb to 14march which potentially can lead to US$ default.

In these times, in theory, people move out from US$ to the "safer" investments, or at least try diversificate more.
Though, that's wasn't the issue for Gold in the last few years

But indeed, some folks might want to diversificate in BTC, thus increasing price.
That's how I understanding it. (I also newb at macro)

I was just wondering on how much money operating on exchanges and what limits they have in terms of influencing the price.
Ultimately THE EXCHANGES now is the main indicator of the price (i.e. if you crash all exchanges to price $10 BTC, what other sources people will use to determine what price is "right"?)

For that, to understand degree of possible manipulation (or for the sake of curiosity) information about fiat mass on each exchange and/or current number of BTC on balance would be very helpful(because before selling BTC you need to transfer it to exchange first, right?).

i.e. - is there 200 000 BTC on exchanges' balance at the moment (to possibly crash 90%)?

These things would be interesting to know.

Why would you think that one would want to liquidate all at once? Just wondering.
It wouldn't be wise, comparing to dump in a slow manner (or portions).

It's little bit contradicts with my previous post, but previous is more of a theory.

That not helps, cause it's not accounting for orders not in the book, and real "walls" might be way, way bigger (I assume biggest players using trading bots).

btw it's also would be nice to understand what amount of btc each stock is holding (assuming some of them do provide shorting btc with leverage).

I really wonder how all that transaction mechanics works on the stocks for BTC, in terms of real money availability on stocks' balance.

According to this site current "bictoin capitalization" is around 11,2 billion $
http://www.coinometrics.com/bitcoin/bmix
and current amount of btc existing is 12,2 millions

But we understand, that "capitalization" is oversimplified model, basically calculated as
[current value per bitcoin ($/btc) multiplied by the number of bitcoins in circulation]

It's nice to think in terms of "that huge amount of money" but it's just the stock, and price is fully depends on the supply/demand, as example

On 5th of december, selling ~200 000 bitcoins (2% of total)  on btc-e caused price drop from 1068 to 556  in 3 days (by 50%).
We might add there other stocks, as ~175k  for bitstamp and ~200k on gox, it's still aboout 5,5% of all volume.

That's how fast wealth disappearing.



Now, the most interesting question for me - is how much money was invested into btc by now? It's certainly not 11,2 billions, nor it's 5 billions. Sum must be way, way less.

Most of these sums must be stored on main stocks (btistamp, gox, btc-e, okcoin/huobi?), who performed transaction operations. //assuming, that people not cashed out to fiat//

And in the end, that sum will determine how much btc you can sell, without going price to zero. Because if one (or several guys) wants to liquidate his BTC holdings, if sum will be big enough, there just wouldn't be enough demand ($) in stock balance to buy even at low levels (and deposit takes several hours), and that will crash price to zero.

Having approximate amount of all cash invested to btc, which are in stocks now, might allow us to predict how much % btc will be required to completely crash the market.

Sure we can't predict how much support (buying power) will be waiting on $100 mark, but in the end, it's all about current cash  on stock balance - if potential buyer don't have much cash his order will be filled up and price will drops further.

If we have some figures about stock balance funds, we can create approximation scenarios (like 1kk btc to be bought at $100 before cash ends and drops further, etc).

Is there any way to obtain something like that?
I mean all stocks are legal organisations and must provide some finance reports to the govt (and at least partly these reports are open to public).

P.S. in before "who the hell will liquidate all his holdings at one day" stuff - scenario might happen if several major holders (up to I dunno, 1kk BTC?) will liquidate their positions at once for whatever reasons.

I actually think that crash started on BTC-e (at least according to BTC-e) - about 10-12 minutes before there was several sells up to 1100 BTC and prices passed 800 mark into 785.  Though in the next several minutes price went back to 800 but it was on low volume, and then ?coordinated? (better say bot reaction?) crash started on all stocks. And for my surprise Gox not crashed for too low.

What volume did you sold?

not trying to argue, just asking/wondering