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Anyone remember the crash of 1/14/16 when it fell from $430 to $360? The start of a long bear run that ended in the demise of Bitcoin? No? Bueller?
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The page won't update to the new night scene on my home browser. Trying clearing cookies but it does nothing.
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Jeff Berwick is a fucking loon.
And you're a fucking sheep. But Berwick is a loon regardless. That has nothing to do with Bitcoin, the ancap philosophy, or anything else. |
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halving is about to come in 11 days,this price will not going stand until the end of july as so many people saying that halving will give affect to the market that much,see the halving countdown,and people's opinion could make other peoples following it
Reward halving itself will not affect the price of bitcoin- many of the investors have already placed their bets and $650 is about the correct price. We shouldn't see much changes between now and when the halving occurs. The real thing will only happen some time after the halving when the gradual effect of reduce supply kicks in. This is my position as well. Speculators are trying to price it in, but no one has perfect information. You can't simulate the reduced supply of fresh coins, so everyone has to wait and see how the bottleneck actually affects the market, which will take some time after the halving to kick in. |
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the all time high of $1200 is very far away at this point. but who knows what will happen till we reach the halving date. if the price keeps pumping as it did already, maybe that we'll get to see a price very close to the magical $1000 barrier again. that would be great. till that time i prefer to focus on reaching $700, and then $800, and then $900, and then i hope finally $1000!!
It's really not that far away. The price has risen 200% since around last September, only needs another 75% rise or so to catch the old ATH. |
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 you've been preaching over and over about expensive bitcoins yet still have some to sell? This. OP didn't have any coins to begin with. |
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ie continually buying bitcoin a little each week no matter what the price is at or is everyone just trading bitcoins like a stock for quick gains
Yeah, I put a little of each paycheck into it. A fixed dollar amount, so the amount of coin I get is variable. Is that what you mean? |
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The price is too damn high! I've never felt so short-term bearish. Glad I'm not a trader though.
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I personally wouldn't do it because I'm not a trader, but the idea in principle isn't as unsound as everyone makes it out to be.
Obviously, if Bitcoin were guaranteed to make it to $1300, then there's no reason at all to sell until that point. But we're all constantly being told that Bitcoin is risky and could go to zero. So if you concede that point at all, then there certainly is potential value to be had by selling now.
The idea of the OP is that, if Bitcoin were to ever hit $1300, then it would likely not only be far less risky at that moment, but almost surely a great investment set to rise, say, another 3-4x. This idea is founded on the pattern that each new ATH creates a bubble that always reaches several multiples higher than the previous one. Right now, it's relatively uncertain whether such a bubble will even get a chance to form.
It's a game of perceived percentages. For example, perhaps you think Bitcoin is terribly risky now, with an 80% chance of failure and a 20% chance of achieving another bubble to, say, $3000. That's an expected return of ($3000)*(0.2) = $600 per coin. At a price of $377, that's a 59.2% return, but you also take on the risk of wildly high volatility.
But say right now you also think that, if it were indeed to reach $1300, it would almost have to be in the middle of a meteoric rise. If right now, you think that hitting $1300 would provide a 20% chance of failure and an 80% chance of reaching $3000, then the expected return would be (3000)*(0.8) = $2400 per coin. At a price of $1300, you get an expected return of 84.6%, not just a higher percentage but also with lower volatility. A much better buy.
Of course, all of this analysis depends not only on your perception of the asset, but on your perception of your future perception of the asset. If this doesn't match your perception, then this strategy isn't for you.
Edit: There's also the time factor. Who knows when that 59.6% will happen, as we're currently waiting indefinitely for a new bubble. But the 84.6% would be gained during a bubble that already started, and so would be pretty much instant.
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Bitcoin replaced by what? Attacked by what? Destroyed by what?  Monero, Obama, you touching yourself at night. |
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I dunno man, I think technical analysis of this sort is bullshit. Sure trends and supports and channels and shit is common sense and real but like "oh look its tracing out the mother marys left tit that means it'll drop 20% by the end of the week" is just cloud watching bs.
Yes, TA is essentially a psuedoscience, but what makes it sorta real is that it's a self-fulfilling pseudoscience. Mother Mary's left tit itself doesn't cause the price to drop, but if everyone thinks that's what it means, then they will sell... and thus the price does indeed fall. See how it works? The lemmings are all predicting what the other lemmings are gonna do, so it's the ones that know how the other lemmings think that can break in the correct direction first and win. So if you're a good trader, you don't use TA because you believe it, you use it because someone else does. Anyway, about the main topic, yes that does look like a classic head and shoulders at the moment. Like all pseudoscience, TA doesn't always hold, but if it does in this case, the price probably will drop a little bit, likely in the low 300s. I don't even see why that's a bad thing. So are we all FUCKED? No. OP resorted to attention-grabbing and fearmongering rather than using a reasonable, accurate title such as "I see a bearish head and shoulders pattern forming". I don't blame him; that sounds like a boring thread that not many people would've clicked on. |
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Haven't all the run-ups had a similar pattern?
You get the super spike, then the quick crash, a bit of a recovery, then a slow decline for awhile. Eventually it settles on a price that isn't near the top of the spike, but is above the range it was trading at before the spike.
Once the market calms down a bit, another run-up can start. See you in May.
and then they think that this market it's not heavily manipulated, how can they think that if we are following always the same rule, but with different digits Nah, emotions provide sufficient explanation. It's a pattern seen in many stocks, not just crypto. A real increase in demand causes the price to rise quickly, but then too many speculators panic buy, thinking they're getting in early when they're actually late. So then the buys dry up somewhere far above the new fair market price and they panic sell. They then overshoot the fair price again when panic selling (because they're still panicking), but they don't overshoot as far as the panic buy overbought. Over time, the price movement slows down as the market eventually figures out what the new fair price actually is. |
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Haven't all the run-ups had a similar pattern?
You get the super spike, then the quick crash, a bit of a recovery, then a slow decline for awhile. Eventually it settles on a price that isn't near the top of the spike, but is above the range it was trading at before the spike.
Once the market calms down a bit, another run-up can start. See you in May.
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So, in truth, 52%, the majority, believe Bitcoin will be worth LESS than $500 by 2016?
So? It's easy to bet on the current price. |
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Forget Buffet, let's talk about that hit piece somebody posted in the comment section: Most people who are currently under the "Bitcoin as a currency" illusion are missing some very important details (on multiple levels) regarding Bitcoin. Most of the information that they've gathered is based on false premises that have been perpetuated by snake oil salesmen, scammers and intellectually dishonest idealists who rely on tenuous and also factually incorrect information. Bitcoin is a cult, it is not a money or currency. It is predicated on a system of half-truths and lies that fall on their face when put under the microscope. These omissions, misperceptions, half-truths and lies are not at all trivial. They cut right to the core of why Bitcoin (the currency) is faulty at its core, and why it will soon hit a technological, economic and regulatory brick wall. I'll do you and everyone reading a favor, and I'll provide a list of a few of the problems with Bitcoin, and explain how you've been lied to, where your fundamental misunderstandings are, and why Bitcoin is flawed on a technical, economic and regulatory level. I'll start with the technical side: 1. In Bitcoin, proof-of-work ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof-of-work_system) is the method used to create reusable tokens (i.e. BTC) that can be sent and received by someone else with a Bitcoin address. When new Bitcoin are created by a Bitcoin Miner/Mining Pool, transactions from the previous (on average) 10 minutes are incentivized through fees (of BTC) to be included in the next ledger, which is built upon the previous ledger. 2. Bitcoin Mining is *HIGHLY* centralized among often anonymous operators. There is very little "distribution" of "hash-rate" to secure the network. Healthy proof-of-work systems require wide distribution of compute power to protect against byzantine faults, and to protect a network against a 51% attack. Bitcoin completely lacks this feature of a healthy network. 3. The Satoshi White Paper DID NOT assume or predict that Bitcoin Mining would become centralized and controlled by very few groups and individuals. or that specialized equipment would be built to enable the level of centralization we are now seeing. When confronted with this fundamental problem of theory vs. reality, Bitcoin promoters brush the issue aside and explain that miners are "Rational Actors", and as such, they have an economic interest to ensure that the network continues in an orderly way. Unfortunately for the promoters, however, "Rational Actor Theory" (which they base their argument on) is a theoretical model that can not be applied to real world outcomes, and is only useful in flat controlled simulations (Game Theory) where all data points are known. It is intellectually dishonest to use the Rational Actor Theory as an excuse for why the Bitcoin network is safe and secure. 4. The Bitcoin network will never be able to scale to support thousands or even hundreds of transactions a second. There is a very real and impossible to overcome barrier in terms of distributed networks, physics, and proof-of-work, that simply cannot be solved, yet just like with the (dishonest) application of Rational Actor Theory, Bitcoin promoters continue to assume that physical and mathematical limits that are inherent and immutable in the proof-of-work system will somehow be overcome in the future. They will not be overcome. Ever. 5. The Bitcoin network is powered by a patchwork of virtually unusable codebase that was originally developed as a "proof of concept" for reusable tokens, much in the way that other academic software system research projects demonstrate novel solutions. The Bitcoin codebase was not designed to scale, yet early on, non-technical libertarians co-opted Bitcoin, raised its perceived currency/monetary value, and created an intractable greed based dilemma: In order to change network consensus methods (proof-of-work, mining centralization), implement solutions that might enable the Bitcoin network to be robust at scale (newer, more efficient messaging methods & optimized peer networking methods), or to be true to the Satoshi White Paper premise of wide distribution of Miners, the price of Bitcoin has to be trivially low. Remember, Miners have spent many millions of dollars to develop and purchase specialized equipment. This is tantamount to vendor lock in. Once the price of Bitcoin went up, and the investments in specialized mining equipment started, the ability to get Miners to *ever* agree to an economic disincentive (like changing the rules of the network to ensure fairness and robustness) evaporated. 6. There is no network or protocol level exchange mechanism. Bitcoin externalizes the exchange duties to 3rd parties (exchanges) in order to support its use as a money transfer instrument. These exchanges have bank accounts in various parts of the world that custody exchange customer USD's, Euros, etc. Bitcoin is completely valueless by itself. Bitcoin promoters often create the illusion that it is a perfect money, and that we will eventually not need exchanges in order for BTC to function as its own economy and currency. The last 2 years have demonstrated that the vast majority of Bitcoin "investors" only care about one ultimate outcome: More Fiat currency in their pockets. 7. Bitcoin (the currency) is totally and completely illegal as a value transfer method in its current state, as demonstrated on numerous occasions by regulators and governments who have made demands of the exchanges that they must either comply with regulatory burdens that other Financial Institutions must follow, or necessarily be criminally liable. This takes us back to the intractable problem of Miners and the flawed implementation of Bitcoin as we now know it: Any types of controls or additional protocol modifications that could be created to help Bitcoin (the currency) to comply with existing laws & regulatory regimes are impossible to implement without the agreement of *at least* 51% of the network. More realistically, the threshold required exceeds 80% of all Miners. Given that miners are heavily centralized (read above), and heavily financially invested in the core premise that Bitcoin promoters have espoused over the past 3-4 years, it is virtually impossible to expect that the Bitcoin network will ever be able to comply with worldwide regulatory requirements. Ultimately this means that existing exchangers of Bitcoin will lose their banking facilities in 2015 and beyond, and Bitcoin (the currency) will very quickly start to approach its real value, which is between $0 and $0.01. |
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A devaluation of the dollar would mean the dollar price of BTC would go up, even if BTC simply maintained its original purchasing power.
But then, if the purchasing power of BTC remained constant through a dollar crisis, then people would see its value and begin buying it...
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I'm not nervous, but I sure am pissed off.
Bitcoin is the pearl tossed to the swine that is humanity, who would rather suck Uncle Sam's cock and swallow Federal Reserve notes instead because who knows why.
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"It's binary. Three ones...that's a five."
No, it isn't. |
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I know how this shit works... I'm not interested in the wall. I've seen walls of 10-50k, so don't tell me about the walls and how impressive they are. The wall isn't the point of this thread. I was asking the question to those who say these are "cheap coinz" and that they'll "buy all they can" and yet, no one buys. All this money and adoption but no one buys. You need the cash/coins to place the order so it is fair game, and no one buys. Little or no slippage by having a large order right at spot? Still, no one buys...
Walls... psshh!
Mid week and you guys can't muster enough strength to buy up 1 or 2k coins? Weak
You're weak. |
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