Well seems like we are not gonna have so much surprise i guess. The odds for Dortmund just go down to a 2% of chances. The only good thing for Dortmund is this is football and everything can happen and more if is only one game, the main problem about that is one of the definition of "football". Football is a sport of 11 vs 11 where Real Madrid always win.  I believe that the game is quite open. Seriously, Dortmund managed to keep a clean sheet in Paris against Mbappe and many other players of high quality. And it was this luck when they hit the post like six times or five times, that Dortmund might need once again. How small the margin now was between Madrid and Bayern, it was a slap in the face for Bayern on an individual level for Neuer with his mistake. Without that mistake Madrid wouldn't have had that second breath. But these minor mistakes have significant impact. Oliver Kahn knows it and I think this was the most painful mistake by Neuer in his career? I guess it was. Then the problem with the referee in minute 104. Pff, I think if someone placed big bets in that game, some of the people probably suffered from heart attacks. It is unpredictable sometimes.
Too bad though that the Bundesliga pools come to an end for a while. Always fun. |
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mit dem spiel augsburg vs. stuttgart, beginnt morgen der schon vorletzte spieltag und damit zum schluss auch alle in unserer fröhlichen tipperunde auf ihren genuss der eigenen tipps kommen, kommt hier die obligatorische erinnerung an alle teilnehmer, die bis jetzt noch keine tipps abgegeben haben Begru
mv1986
Spray.
bullrun2024bro
5tift
seek3r |
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ihr habt bis morgen 20.30 noch zeit, eure tipps rechtzeitig abzugeben  Danke Dir und in der Tat ist es nun so, dass ich wohl ein bisschen Harakiri spielen muss. Begründet noch von Position 3 zu verdrängen ist hart bei 9 Punkten Rückstand und 1miau ist ja dann mindestens auch noch im Rennen. Ein paar Kleinigkeiten werde ich aber glaube ich möglichst bewusst anders machen. Wer weiß, vielleicht denken die meisten von euch ja ganz ähnlich. Ich darf es nur nicht völlig gegen die Wand fahren, weil dann verbringst Du nachher noch das Unmögliche!  Aber 22 Punkte, selbst wenn ich jetzt ein paar wilde Tipps abgebe, das sollte ja wohl reichen. Die Sache ist halt, dass das im Großen und Ganzen ja sowieso weitgehend entschieden ist durch diese neue CL-Regelung mit 5 Startern. Von daher kann man schwer sagen, ob die top 5 da jetzt noch ihre besten Spiele zeigen werden. |
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13. Derrick Lewis
12. Joaquin Buckley
11. Alonzo Menifield
10. Mateusz Rebecki
9. Alex Caceres
8. Robelis Despaigne
7. Chase Hooper
6. Esteban Ribovics
5. Tabatha Ricci
4. Billy Goff
3. Jake Hadley
2. Kevin Jousset
1. JJ Aldrich
NOT go the Full Distance 6
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Game 1: 49, 25'
Game 2: 49, 25'
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Free Bets have been credited Division 1 - mv1986 (40$ freebet)
Division 2 - cryptofrka (30$ freebet)
Division 3A - execijutiere (10$ freebet)
Division 3B - bullrun2024bro (10$ freebet) I don't have any merits left, thank you! |
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~ [1] Wäre gerade Bärenmarkt, wäre der Spruch was für 1miau's Liste  , aber die wurde ja leider geschlossen. ~ Lieber d5000, wenn Du jetzt meinen letzen Post liest, dann denkst Du, ich hätte hier bei Dir raubkopiert, weil ich darauf verwiesen habe, dass etwas bei 1miau zu finden wäre, wenn denn bla und bla (edit 22:02: bla und bla war hier einfach auf das Weiterreden bezogen) hat mich zum Schmunzeln gebracht. "habe ich hier China reingebracht oder von mir aus auch der Slogan "Bitcoin is dead" (ist bestimmt auch irgendwo bei 1miau 's Parolen zu finden in dem Thread)"Sehr witzig, muss ich sagen. Aber zum Thema Kursverlauf: Wenn man die Aktion gegen Roger Ver anschaut, dann gibt's doch auch hier wieder zwei Dinge, die man sich genau anschauen muss. Erstens, haben sie nicht vermutlich Recht, die Behörden? Dass es alles richtig gemacht hat in der frühesten Phase, die ihn jetzt noch einholen könnte, schwer zu glauben. Aber das jetzt ja seinen guten Willen schon voraus. Dazu kann jeder seine Meinung haben. Zweiter Punkt: wer eignet sich besser, als so eine Person, die man dann festnagelt, um dem Rest in der Welt klar zu machen, dass jetzt früheste Transaktionen oder auch Anhäufung von Vermögen komplett umgedreht und untersucht werden. Klar eignet er sich dazu. Ich glaube, wenn man ein unbekannter Name von dieser Größenordnung wäre, hätte man weniger zu befürchten. Dass sie ihn durchleuchten und in Spanien festnehmen, das hat glaube ich ganz andere Wirkung als irgendeine auf den Preis von Bitcoin. Ich glaub, dass wir wieder an einem Punkt sind, da konsolidieren viele, da nehmen manche Gewinne mit, auch große Player, die das Spiel wirklich spielen wollen, und viele andere kleine Dynamiken. Unterm Strich bleibt die Diskussion unter uns allen, ob Bitcoin halt wirklich die Rolle einnimmt zukünftig, die wir - bisher - für möglich halten. Da gibt es sowieso eine Menge Diskussionen, wie alles laufen könnte und was weiß ich. Aber deshalb bin ich ja auch kein Freund der Ta, @ Turbatuluk Kein Angriff, ich lass mich gern - auch in Zügen - immer vom Gegenteil überzeugen. Aber den Kursverlauf finde ich so gar nicht spektakulär. Eher in die positive Richtung, wenn man schaut, wo man herkommt. |
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I can straight out tell that I played a little hedge here and included Aston Villa as the winner against Olympiacos. I couldn't trust my eyes when I checked the game and Aston Villa is 0-2 down. Seriously what is this and it's the same as always, sports betting is not predictable. Sometimes there are little obvious details where someone knows it makes sense to bet a lot, but this is one of these games where I suppose nobody would have said that Aston Villa will be 0-2 down by halftime!
Ok, 1-2 for the time being. |
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Wollte Dich oder euch hier gar nicht so lang warten lassen, aber ich gehe zumindest mal kurz auf Deinen Post ein. Eine Erklärung meines Posts folgt dann noch. Will mal schauen, dass ich die mathematische Formatierung überschaubarer gestalte. Es ist plausibel, dass Veränderungen der Fundamentaldaten durch externe Ereignisse den Kurs und damit auch die technischen Indikatoren direkt beeinflussen und damit mindestens einseitige Abhängigkeit besteht. Eine interessante Frage wäre, inwieweit eigentlich fundamentale Analyse betrieben wird, wenn manche Investoren denken, sie würden sich rein der technischen Analyse widmen. Denn bei der technischen Analyse geht es ausschließlich um Extrapolation auf Basis von Daten aus der Vergangenheit. Oder eben die schlichte Mustererkennung usw. Wenn aber jemand die Quartalsberichte kennt, finanzielle Kennzahlen kennt und dann sich an die technische Analyse setzt, dann geben manche technische Analysen nur deshalb Sinn, weil die Person insgesamt die finanzielle Lage, also die Fundamentaldaten analysiert hat und kennt. Nimm meinetwegen Tesla und jemand kennt das Unternehmen nahezu auswendig, behauptet dann aber im Nachgang, dass die TA zur Investitionsentscheidung geführt hat. Deshalb, TA ist das Ausblenden von Fundamentaldaten und das reine Lesen der Preisentwicklung und bestimmter Thresholds aus der Vergangenheit, Bewegungsmuster usw. Nimmt man social media influencer als "verstärker" noch mit rein, die aufgrund der Reichweite auch mal Hypes oder Panik auslösen können, dann ist auch die gegenseitige Abhängigkeit plausibel. Das Wort "Verstärker" passt doch hier wunderbar und Du bist sowieso schon auf dem richtigen Weg, meine Idee hier zu begreifen. Entropy liefert mehr Input, je geringer der Wert ist und Störgeräusche spielen dabei auch eine Rolle. Genauso aber auch Redundanzen bzw. Wiederholungen und deshalb habe ich hier China reingebracht oder von mir aus auch der Slogan "Bitcoin is dead" (ist bestimmt auch irgendwo bei 1miau 's Parolen zu finden in dem Thread). Die Entropy geht für diese Infos "China bans Bitcoin" oder "Bitcoin is dead" dann extrem hoch, sodass die Signifikanz der Information in Bezug auf die Preisbildung enorm abnimmt. In solchen Zeiten kann die TA Wirkung entfalten, weil im Grunde nur wahnsinnig viele, nicht mehr Einflussreiche Ereignisse oder Informationen vorliegen. Dann kommt die Institutionalisierung der Punkte nach selbsterfüllender Prophezeiung ähnlich der Schelling Points ins Spiel. Irgendein Guru mit großer Reichweite oder auch Banken und sonst wer machen öffentlich, wo der Bitcoinpreis denn dann demnächst steht (auch dazu habe ich noch interessanten Input aus meiner Uni-Zeit von einem herausragenden Finanzprofessor). In einem informationseffizienten Markt sind alle externen Ereignisse schon eingepreist, weil es immer Akteure gibt die davon wissen. Man selbst wird als Einzelner dagegen wohl nie genug Informationen zusammentragen können um eine ausreichend detaillierte Fundamentalanalyse des Marktes durchführen zu können. Ich denke hier gibt es irgendwo einen Schwellenwert unterhalb dessen man informationsINeffizient arbeitet und sich lieber auf die stark vereinfachte Betrachtung per TA beschränken sollte. Das sehe ich fundamental anders, aber im Detail mehr dazu später. Meine Bachelorarbeit habe ich über die Risiken im Tail-Bereich von Verteilungen geschrieben, also Cash-Flow-At-Risk und Value-at-Risk. Da lernt man dann ganz schnell, wie heftig die TA an Grenzen stößt. Buchempfehlung an dieser Stelle und greife ich auch später nochmal auf: "A Random Walk Down Wall Street". Die Random-Walk-Analyse, Monte-Carlo-Simulation etc. waren wichtige Bestandteil bei einer meiner Arbeiten und die Wahrheit ist, dass der Random-Walk die Realität besser abbildet im Schnitt als irgendeine TA Interpretation. Ich heiße da neue, weltweit anerkannte Studien gerne willkommen und bitte hier gern um Links dazu.
Hinsichtlich der Fundamentalanalyse kommt es glaube auch nicht so sehr auf das einzelne Ereignis an (welches sich eh nie mehr wiederholt), sondern eher auf Häufigkeit, Einfluss und Richtung der auftretenden Ereignisse in ihrer Gesamtheit.
Insofern wäre es ja vielleicht schon hilfreich eben solche Ereignisse zu sammeln, deren Einfluss relativ klar bestimmbar ist (z.B. Angriff Iran -> Israel mit 300 Flugkörpern 13.04.2024: BTC 67k$ -> 60k$). Mit einer etwas umfangreicheren Sammlung auch "kleinerer" Ereignisse ist es dann vielleicht einfacher bei zukünftigen Ereignissen die sowieso wieder ganz anders aussehen eine Einschätzung zum Einfluss auf den BTC Kurs vorzunehmen. Genau dieses Beispiel fand ich wirklich gut von Dir, denn es sind diese Ereignisse, die sich am Ende des Tages doch immer wiederholen, nur halt in unterschiedlicher Form. Stell Dir mal die TA-Trader am Anfang von Corona vor. Wann bitte hat denn da irgendwer begriffen, dass negative Öl-Preise mal Realität werden könnten? Ich weiß, dass Dein Ansatz auch nochmal zu differenzieren ist, denn Du sprichst ja hier vor allem über den kleineren Investor, der weder Insider-Infos hat, noch irgendwelche ultra Rechenmaschinen, die es da algorithmisch mit Blackrock aufnehmen. Ist auch alles richtig, aber unterm Strich bleibt auch für Bitcoin, dass der HODLer von früher jeden, aber auch wirklich jeden absolut versierten TA-Trader, der 1000 Bücher gelesen hat, in die Tasche gesteckt hat bei der Rendite. Deshalb nochmal zum Anfang: Selbst, wenn Du TA betreibst, so ist im Unterbewusstsein doch eigentlich schon längst eine Fundamentalanalyse geschehen, weil Du im Kern annimmst zu verstehen (so wie ich halt auch), was Bitcoin im Allgemeinen zukünftig wirtschaftlich, geopolitisch, sozial und sonst wo bewirken kann und vermutlich wird. Die rückschauende Analyse ist dann vielleicht ein minimales Backup für minimal kleine Zeiträume, um ein bisschen mit den bekannten Indikatoren aus der TA herumzuspielen. Aber letztendlich ist die Fundamentalanalyse Dein grundsätzliches Fundament, so meine Annahme. |
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Noice article Trofo. Though the first mention of Division 1 had the most unexpected outcome (I'm still laughing at CLS63!). Massive boost to all you title chasers.
Happened also when he did not show to derby with you in previous season I am writing article on Monday and trying to get it online Tuesday morning. Sometimes that process takes time and then it looks a bit strange when my points get trashed by deadline. Always nice when league leader gets penalty points though Thanks cls63 Yeah, I remember very, very well. The derby that never happened. That's a team too confident they forgot they still need to show up on the pitch to get points. Oh and, now I wish I listened to my gut seeing Alcaraz struggle yesterday and put Rublev in instead. Slight advantage for me vs notblox1 here, now the worst I can do on tennis question is draw. I could copy your post and claim it is mine. I thought the same. Waiting until the very last second to just see how Alcaraz was struggling and to then stick with the decision to put him as a finalist wasn't the smartest move on my part. In retrospect it was the best warning one could get. But again I thought it is kind of a home game for the Spaniard and I am still influenced in my decision making by some of his crazy good games from the past. But most of the time it is probably safest neutralization of the opponent's answer here. Putting Rublev wasn't an easy choice either and I am sure you thought the same when Alcaraz won the first set: I did it all right, being patient paid off!  |
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It's tough for Brazil, but I think for any country and team to have a superstar like Messi and then when they quit playing, everyone understands that it probably can only get worse. What's the chance that another Messi is in the making and is able to perfectly substitute him. We as the fans also will miss him. Even now at his age he still has this insane quality to create surprise moments for him team. Passes that nobody would expect or shots that hardly anyone else could do the same way.
Brazil is in trouble. They have had a lot of close games, but still. It shouldn't be the case and usually I think a team with so many top players should be able to get along even without a great coach against underdogs, but I agree with you that they lack leadership both on and off the field.
A player like Messi is about to be born, Messi is a genius, 16 years at his peak and with each passing year he only gets better, the same goes for CR7. But Messi is a genius. I've never seen someone like him dribble and sprint. In my opinion, the only player who had the potential to surpass Messi is the Ronaldo Phenomenon R9, if it weren't for his knee injuries and his excess weight acquired in his career and if he had the same commitment to training as Messi and CR7, Ronaldo would have been better than Messi. Ronaldo was great with his explosions in his counterattacks. Ronaldo and Zidane are comparable, the best players I've ever seen play, then we have Ronaldinho with his magic that made it seem like football on the field turned into football on the court, he has dribbling skills that no player can copy Ronaldinho. There are some more geniuses than just Messi, but being in the right team at the right time is an important factor for any player in any team sport to exploit their full potential. Everyone knows this sentence that if Messi didn't play for Barcelona, he wouldn't have been as good. Lol, of course not! But how is that the result of in depth analysis when in fact it is true because it is true for everyone. Haaland could never reach the level he reaches playing for Manchester City when he is on tour with his Norwegian national team. But that's not a surprise. Strong midfielders make any striker stronger as they understand timing and passing better than weak midfielders. Messi would have never won a World Cup if he was from Luxembourg. I think a certain level of the team as a whole is necessary to bring out the best of any player in the world. If Messi played for a weak team, he would be running into a wall all the time as he couldn't enfold his dribbling, let alone his understanding of the game, his ability to read what opponents will do and what teammates will do. Zidane was a beast in reading the game. Ronaldinho had his very own style that was so much fun to watch. Insane. R9 was a machine, too. But now let's see how all these great players who are still around will do at the EURO or at the Copa. The World Cup is still a long way to go and I am not sure anymore whether Ronaldo and Messi would still play an important role in 2026. Maybe they are part of the team, but their role might be much smaller than it used to be for their teams. |
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✂️
I am very surprised from Wehen Wiesebaden. They were actually pretty safe, but now they have to fight against relegation again. It is definitely very exciting again.
and that's why the club sacked head coach Markus Kauczinski yesterday. in doing so, wehen wiesbaden pulled out the last joker to avert relegation to the 3rd league after all. staying in the 2nd bundesliga is the club's top priority - MK managed promotion to the 2. bundesliga with svww last season And what a lovely situation for St. Pauli! They could put the nail in the coffin for Hamburg this season while celebrating their promotion in the stadium of their fiercest opponent! If anyone would have told me that Hamburg might end up playing in the 2. Bundesliga for a whole decade, I would have bet against it big time but now I think it is certainly not impossible that we will continue to see Hamburg mess things up over and over again for the next few years. Düsseldorf is in a pretty complicated situation now that they lost two points against Schalke and are still playing against Kiel away from home. There is indeed some more drama guaranteed towards the end of the season. Now Kiel against Wehen and both desperately need to win, but either way Düsseldorf still has the chance to somewhat close the gap and keep it an open fight until the end. More exciting than the 1. Bundesliga I would say. |
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Big day yesterday for Nadal!
Lehecka won in 2 sets. The match was high level with fantastic tennis from both.
After the match there was a tribute to Nadal as it was his last Madrid tournament.
The surprise of the day for me was Felix AA getting past Ruud, the canadian is playing
fantastic tennis ATM, its kind of out of the blue though and is rewarded with a match
against Sinner!
Yes it is hard to predict who might come out on top of this tournament. I thought that Alcaraz would never have such a thriller against Struff and I thought Ruud would be playing better than that. It's weird, it is back and forth for Ruud. Gets destroyed in the Monte Carlo Masters final against Tsitsipas on clay, then destroys Tsitsipas in the Barcelona final on clay. Now as the Barcelona winner loses the game against Felix AA. Tennis became much more unpredictable ever since the three GOATS have either retired or reduced the number of tournaments they play. We will have to be patient to find out whether there is another GOAT in the making, but even Alcaraz had his bad moments already. As of now, the 24 GS titles of Djokovic seem to be impossible to reach for everyone who is around at the moment. |
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Maybe none could expect to see this good performance from Leverkusen during this season. While a team like Bayern Munich spends too much money and they hired players like Harry Kane for their team to have better performance during this season in both the Bundesliga and the Champions League but it was not working.
Leverkusen is still unbeaten while they didn't buy expensive players like the other teams and compared to Bayern Munich they didn't invest too much for their team while instead of paying too much money they had a coach like Xabi Alonso in this team who had perfect performance made Leverkusen to have perfect teamwork.
Obviously not... If there has never been a team that was at the top of the table without a single loss after 31 games in the Bundesliga history, why would anyone in their wildest dreams come up with the idea that Leverkusen could do it? But I guess that the more pressing question that many people now feel is whether Leverkusen can continue like this. Not necessarily to never lose a game again in the next season, but whether they will be able to break the Bayern reign for longer than just one season. I hope they can because it is high time in the Bundesliga to finally see some real competition again and to have more German top teams. This was indeed masterpiece as Xabi Alonso said, but it would be an even bigger masterpiece when after 31 games next season it is again Leverkusen greeting Bayern from above. |
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14. Alexandre Pantoja
13. Jose Aldo
12. Vitor Petrino
11. Michel Pereira
10. Caio Borralho
9. Jack Shore
8. Iasmin Lucindo
7. Myktybek Orolbai
6. William Gomis
5. Joaquim Silva
4. Mauricio Ruffy
3. Dione Barbosa
2. Ismael Bonfim
1. Kevin Borjas
NOT go the Full Distance 6
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After a draw between Real and Bayern, mv1986 and me have four more different answers at the end of the week. I already lost a point for the tennis question because I didn't wait for the Zverev game to end. He lost straight 2-0 against Cerundolo. I knew it's a risk to go with him, but I didn't expect him to lose so soon. I expected him to battle against Alcaraz and somehow win against him.
It was a strange game as it was the team that did not have control over the game that scored the goals. Of course I was hoping for the Bayern win when they scored their second goal, but I somehow knew that it wouldn't be the end of the game. Kim Min-Jae seldomly plays so much bullshit in a single game. The way he left the own third to run after Vinicius Junior to then get overrun by him was quite amateurish. Same applies to the penalty he was responsible for. How did he think to get away with that tackle? Of course Rodrygo will draw the penalty from that foul. Anyone here also agrees that Neuer's movement on the line was pretty bad when Vini took the penalty? The penalty was weak, but Neuer was literally lying in the opposite corner already before the ball was even hit... The questions Trofo and cryptofrka came up with have been really tricky again. There are now so many small margins within a single question. I like it, but it really takes some thought to make up one's mind. Can Barcelona score two goals? Yes and slackovic would instantly be wrong with under 3.5. But at the same time I thought that Girona to win a draw while going over 3.5 is very tricky, too. The tennis question is a tough one and as cryptofrka has said here in another post, it was so close and I was waiting like everyone else to submit my answer. Obviously, it would have made a big difference for me as I picked him as a finalist. In the end I had to take a gamble as I submitted when the game was not yet concluded. Liverpool question is tough as well and formula 1 is not really my field of expertise. But good to see though that slackovic and I have different answers. @slackovic now we have to wait until Saturday to see some more relevant results, good luck! |
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Game 1: 44, 25'
Game 2: 44, 25'
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True, but doesn't mean that the Bundesliga wouldn't need long term competition among the teams in the league itself. Europa League and Champions League is all good, but as you can tell yourself it gets boring when one team dominates so hard. Dortmund wasted it last year, but even if they won it, it is still no competition. Bayern needs competition! Honestly, Bayern Munich in the previous seasons could not be compared with the actual season whether in the quality of the players nor in coaches tactics. Lewandowski departure among others affected a lot Bayern Munich and even Harry Kane arrival failed to fully replace him. In addition to that, Xabi Alonso drove Bayer Leverkusen very well and the title was very much merited by this team. I think Bayern Munich don't really have much drop in quality of the squad. The departure of Lewandowski has been well-replaced by Harry Kane, He has done his job very well to ensure their Bayern's productivity. His goal-scoring ability and statistics seems quite similar to what Lewandowski produced during his time at Bayern. The only aspect that Bayern experiencing a quality drop is the coach. Tuchel may be better than Julian Nagelsmann, but he is not better than some previous Bayern's manager. The remarkable campaign of Leverkusen should taken into account to judge this season's Bayern, because Leverkusen being excellence with their unbeaten record put more pressure for Bayern, and made Bayern having almost impossible to match their run of the season. Point is that Leverkusen was on a different level. I have no idea whether they will be able to repeat that, but fact is that this performance was so out of this world that I can't think of a situation where they will repeat it. If it is the case, I am the first person to salut! |
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La Liga is over. Some people are still saying that everything is theoretically possible, but the truth is that Real could step up their game every minute if they need to. They can now play a very relaxed season and if they were to lose like two games in a row, they just send their best eleven and win the remaining games...
Real Madrid needs only two victories in the remaining five games to be declared champions and this regardless of the others results. Even a win and a draw could theoretically be sufficient for them to lift the title without taking on consideration the others. You could imagine if the other teams missed points then Real Madrid will be the winners without much efforts. They need their full concentration for UEFA Champions League semifinals anyway Yeah, but they probably don't even need the two victories. It would mean that Barcelona has to deliver and what is the chance that they do? Xavi has been trying his best, but the truth is that they are not up to the game that they should be. It is still subpar what they are delivering and I think that it will remain like that for a pretty long time. Real Madrid is Real Madrid, but Barcelona is not the same club they used to be in the past. |
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