most influencers are not technical analysts but 'trend anals'
they stupidly just draw a line on a chart based on a random number of days of their choosing of previous trades and pretend that history repeats itself.

these 'trend anals' are better known as pump and dump groups. they are not predicting the future but instead trying to create a narative and hope people program their bots to blindly follow the narrative so that its the followers that create the situation.
thus not predictive but creative

having a line on a chart where the only piece of data it equates to is historic chart data is meaningless.
there are many other things that contribute to making the underlying value such as the cost of creating bitcoin(mining) and other things like monitoring the cold wallets of exchanges to see if they are at high supply or low supply.

however. if you are getting this information from some youtube influencer who spend hours glamourising charts, recording the video and then uploading it. then by the time you have seen it.. the data is old and too late and those who seen it first have already acted on the real information and are most probably just promoting what they desire as the after effect

EG if the price is dipping, they buy.. then they promote it hit bottom and people should then start to buy on the rise.. thus them other people cause the rise. for the initial person to sell at profit..
only after selling at profit would they then say the high hit the top and others should start selling. just so the first person can buy the dip again and repeat.
this is standard pump and dump tactics
so the best advice. dont be a follower, because your going to be the last to know and have most to lose following old data

How can you tell if you are the holder of a legitimate market product or a ponzi/pyramid-like product? It's simple. The life cycle of a legitimate market product has three phases. The creation phase, the circulation phase, and the utilization or liquidation phase. The life cycle of a ponzi/pyramid-like product has only two phases. The creation phase and the circulation phase. Let's start with the legitimate products.

Suppose that you bought an iPhone because you think it is cheap and you can sell it for a higher price in the future. That's the circulation phase of the iPhone. Once you sell it to someone, and that person starts to actually use it for its purpose(calls, texting...), iPhone is in utilization phase. Here we need to mention, that it is this phase where the value of the iPhone actually comes from. Meaning, the utilization of a product is the value of the product. When Apple was producing this product that was its creation phase. So the concept of phases in the life cycle of a product is pretty straightforward.

Market products such as dollars or bonds also have three phases. It is just that instead of utilization phase, they have the liquidation phase. Given that both dollar and bonds are debt based products, they operate similarly in the phases, the only difference being that dollar issuers(banks and borrowers) borrow and return goods and services from the public, while bond issuers borrow and return money. When corporations issue bonds and banks new units of dollars via loans, this is the creation phase of these products. Once they are created, the products enter the circulation phase. At the beginning of this phase, the corporations borrow money, while borrowers borrow goods and services from the public. Finally, the liquidation phase occurs when the corporations return money to the bondholders by paying principle, and when the borrowers return goods and services to dollar holders by making the loan payments. Namely, prior to loan payments, borrowers obviously had to give (trade) goods and services to dollar holders in order to get funds for these repayments. This is how the last dollar holders receive goods and services from the borrowers prior to liquidation. After the dollars are liquidated, that is, withdrawn from circulation they are again put into circulation with new loans. With loan repayments they are again liquidated and so on. So, dollars are in constant cycles of creation(loans), circulation(means of exchange) and liquidation (loan repayments). Hence, the three phases. And the same as with iPhone or bonds it is the third phase where the value of this product actually comes from, since liquidation is where the last dollar holders receive goods and services.

Now that we know the phases in the life cycle of legitimate market products, we can examine the illegitimate products. Let's say that you bought membership in a ponzi scheme. This is the circulation phase of that product. The creation phase was obviously when the scheme organizers issued this product. But, unlike in the above cases, these issuers never liquidate this product to pay value to its holders, nor it is utilizable like iPhone. Meaning, this product lacks the third phase, and as such, it is in an infinite circulation phase. In this phase, more recent investors bring in the three-phased market products and trade them for your two-phased product(membership). Once the scheme collapses, you, as the last membership holder, are left with nothing since no third phase exists in which the value is paid or received.

Bitcoin has exactly the same features. It is a two-phased product. Its issuing is phase one. Its circulation in the market is phase two. But given that its issuers never liquidate it to pay value to its holders, nor it is utilizable like iPhone, bitcoin lacks the third phase. As such, it has ponzi/pyramid-like features. Meaning, once you as an investor, brought in the three-phased market products, you are left only with hope that new investors will trade their three-phased products for your two-phased bitcoin. Once new investors stop investing, the scheme falls apart and you are left with nothing expect the digital record of membership.

After last week's price crash, I saw some discussions regarding this topic. I have not changed my thesis. I wrote a post to explain my view.

Original Post: https://bitflate.org/post/2020/03/17/bitcoin-is-a-store-of-value.html

This article expresses a personal opinion of the Bitflate developer. It is not investment advice.

TL;DR

Long-term, Bitcoin is a Store of Value.

Short-term, Bitcoin is a speculative asset.

The coronavirus is spreading across the world. The US economy is feeling its impact. In time of crisis, people are dumping equities for cash. Crypto market had a hard crash last week. Bitcoin dropped more than 50% on March 12, 2020. Bitcoin analyst, Nic Carter, pointed out that it was the 2nd worst percentage drop in recorded history of Bitcoin trading. The worst percentage drop happened in 2013. This Bitcoin’s price drop coincides with the US stock market crash. This correlated price movement challenges Bitcoin’s value proposition as a safe haven Store of Value.

The magnitude of price drop shattered many bitcoin owners. They’re quick to dump and start to question the safe haven SoV thesis. This is understandable. As we are introduced to Bitcoin, the first most enduring thesis we hear is the Store of Value. The stock market drops 5-10% a day during this crisis, while the Bitcoin Store of Value drop 50% in a day. Bitcoin is peculiar. It lives in the fringe and extremities of our psychology. Can a Store of Value be extremely volatile? I think the answer is yes. We consider how we view Bitcoin in the short-term or long-term.

Bitcoin’s short-term price movements are dependent on traders

Bitcoin is a global digital currency. People trade it 24/7. There is no circuit break. No authority can intervene to stop its price movements. If we divide Bitcoin owners into hodlers and traders, we can see that traders dominate Bitcoin’s daily movements. Occasionally, hodlers will switch to be traders and vice versa. When Bitcoin price crashes, some hodlers may become anxious and start dumping their bitcoins.

Traders want to make money. They think short-term. They live off price movements. Bitcoin’s short-term price trend is speculative. It’s difficult to understand its daily price actions. With the stock market index, when many stocks can crash, some stocks remain well positioned. For example, this crisis greatly impacts Boeing due to decrease in air travel. But Costco benefits from increase volume. Bitcoin is a solo asset. Therefore, its price movement is very volatile.

Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong

During this price crash, we saw Bitcoin’s price dropped below $4k. But it bounced back and has hold above $5k in the past few days. This likely indicates that long-term investors remain holding and buying.

We see how Bitcoin price can make sudden and drastic changes. This recent price crash is entirely caused by external factors. Bitcoin’s fundamentals change very little. Besides a hashrate drop, we don’t see any other change in how Bitcoin trades and operates. It is still producing blocks every 10 minutes, or maybe a little slower. It is still issuing 12.5 coins for every block for the past 4 years. It is still secure. Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong.

Bitcoin is a Store of Value

If we zoom out the hours, days, and months of the Bitcoin price chart, we can see its long-term price trend remains up. The currently crisis is caused by external factors. The coronavirus is impacting the world’s economies. A sudden panic is causing people to flee asset markets. This has not changed Bitcoin’s value thesis. Long-term, Bitcoin is a Store of Value.

By long-term, I mean the time horizon is 5-10 years (more than 1 halving). Bitcoin’s price movement is affected by traders in the short-term. But in the long-term, hodlers will ultimately decide its price trend.

Long-term, Bitcoin is a Store of Value.

Short-term, Bitcoin is a speculative asset.

When to dump Bitcoin

People will move their money around. I follow but usually ignore short-term price movements. I try to stick with my timeline and how I allocate money. During tumultuous times, some bitcoiners advocate HODLism as a strategy. You should always hold. But I don’t think this is a sound strategy. I think a sound investment approach is to compare Bitcoin with other assets. If I see Bitcoin overvalued compared to real estate or equities, I would consider dumping Bitcoin. This is my personal view of how to deal with Bitcoin’s price movements. You should do your own research.

Bitflate is a cryptocurrency with constant inflation of 7% per year. Its goal is to be a Medium of Exchange.

There is no relationship between these two but thing is people behave based on what the situation outside. As what you have said people are simply panicking, fearing and having a weak hands so basically this is because of the pandemic. This isn't just a coincidence that's for sure.

Either they put all the money into Bitcoin for hope to get something in return or they were regretting something back then because they think "it would have been much more better if I could just sell it on X date". It's completely normal and it could affect the mental health of certain people. I do feel that sometimes and that's a sign for you to stop.

I doubt it. Anything is possible, but this is a very uncertain period of time so expect anything to happen. As far as I know, the price usually bumps up about an year post halving. Other people's analysis may prove me wrong, this is how I remember it.

Bitcoin still needs to prove its purpose. Bitcoin needs to find the answer to the meaning of its existence. Halving will make BTC much scarcer, but that doesn't necessarily mean the price will be positively affected. I'd like to believe that in an year prices will soar to All-Time-Highs, but I am afraid the recession will let this happen only many months/years later than it's supposed to happen.

It is a wasting because it could be done with staking, that way the could shouldn't need miners. And i think this is why ETH is moving to PoS.

And it's a waste if the energy cost is bigger than the mined coins...

I don't really worry about standard paper with a standard laser printer. I expect it to last several lifetimes (as long as it stays dry). I have many different books and other pieces of paper collected over the years, and non of them looks even close to becoming unreadable.
If you're looking for much more durable solutions, you can consider a piece of sheet metal, letter punches and a hammer.

I definitely expect the US to crack down on mixers, I'm surprised they haven't been putting backdoors or creating their own to trace hackers when they mix funds after a big crime. I expect the US to keep this up and it being one of their large efforts they were discussing earlier this month.

That is what people get from someone that offers a big profit in the short term. Your friend needs to learn more about bitcoin because once he bought bitcoin at the exchanges and hold it, he doesn't need to buy another bitcoin if he doesn't want. After all, that will be enough for them to keep it for a while.

I guess he doesn't want to learn from you, so he decides to learn by himself, and unfortunately, he got the bad experience in out there. There is nothing to blame in this case because he chooses to search by himself and don't ask you about those 2 questions. Perhaps, if he asks you, he doesn't have to get that experience, but all things already happen, and you can hope that he can learn from his mistake.

And some people thought that Corona can push the price higher because it can be adopted for cashless transaction right now Bitcoin has a huge drop and can even go in the $7900 level and surprisingly we are only two months away from the halving.

I am writing a story from my brother. In December 2018, my brother decided to replenish the balance of 2.6 btc on hitbtc. Some time after the trade, he decided to pick them up. He was asked to go through KYC. He submitted all the documents. They asked him many times. different documents all the time. He suffered this humiliation. But he gave everything that they asked. After that, they assigned him a Skype call. Nikolas from Hitbtc will introduce his case sends him the same letter with the same content. He was blocked in Trolbox Hitbtc. Telegram support does not help. I write to them every day but they say that they cannot help us with anything! This is the most terrible exchange. My brother from India is big money for him! he is very poorly maintained that he cannot write here!!!

Hi

What is the best app mobile to trade p2p (like bisq and localbitcoin). That can I fiat money eur, usd... to buy Bitcoin?

Definitely I would rent a car with bitcoin, considering the platfrom is a reputable one with good customer support for its users as well a physical company where one can easily connect with the team in a certain country. Barriers like this is what bitcoin was created to solve so people would be able to control their cash at any point in time. Although I haven't tried out renting a car before but if eventually I end up needing one for a quick purpose, definitely I would check out for platform like this.

Anything is possible during a financial crisis, every financial market will be affected but because bitcoin moves on different trends and markets, I think it can be a safe place for investors because it is not directly connected to one country's economy.

If it is for daily use of course we would prefer Fiat over crypto,
But for holding or saving up I would prefer crypto over Fiat to take advantage of the high volatility and to gain more.
Even if crypto could be used for payment in any transaction people would prefer to use Fiat currency over crypto because of it's chance to increase it's price due to demand.
Most of us are eager to see it being accepted but doesn't want to use it even if they could because it is an investment tool for most of us.

Bitcoin is still young to make any conclusions about it. So it can't be called "failed experiment". Bitcoin's price is continuously growing despite high volatility.

Ultimately, Lightning can provide instant transactions for low value, frequent purchases at brick-and-mortar stores. The costs of merchant integration aren't justified yet until LN adoption is much more widespread. The same was true of credit cards at one point too.

In the meantime, there are apps like SPEDN that merchants can integrate with existing POS terminals. SPEDN uses Gemini to custody cryptocurrency so that merchants can accept it without requiring confirmations.

 Every stinkin' one I've ever encountered in the USA wants some form of ID