dividends incoming...
edit - 0.00374772
thats roughly 1500 btc for the week. ouch. |
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I sure hope we find out what is the situation with the 500 TH that was supposed to be deployed in Sept / Oct.
Successfully deploying that equipment would yield 15-20% of the network.
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things look good, thank you JohnK!
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I'm really excited to see the financial report. Right now I have absolutely no way to value the company.
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512 qbit quantum computer is here...
This device is not the same class of device that computer scientists are speaking about when they say "quantum computer". It's analogous to building a digital computer that can only perform addition: An add-only-machine "computes", but it's not turing complete. The DWAVE devices are not quantum turing complete: they cannot perform the fast quantum period finding algorithms which would are apparently needed to recover a private key from a public key. It is a quantum computer only in the sense that it computes and (maybe) uses some quantum effect. Nor does their device appear to have any clear way to generalize to quantum turing completeness in the future, nor are they claiming that it does. Moreover, you asked for an even harder problem: Converting an address to its private key requires finding the pre-image to RIPEMD160+SHA256 (and its discrete log), and this wouldn't be efficiently computable on a real quantum computer. The noospheer guy has been all over the place trying to collect money for his batshit craziness. He emits a lot of technobabble that doesn't have any credibility. If he actually could do what he claims he could trivially prove it to anyone (e.g. by finding a discrete log of a nothing-up-my-sleeve point). It won't even seem like a computer as it will have superhero abilities, such as breaking encryption.
People frequently exaggerate the capabilities of quantum computers. Indeed, such a device would be magical and a breakthrough and would help solve many interesting problems. But quantum computers are not even conjectured to break _all_ encryption, they only break some classes of cryptography (such as asymmetric cryptography based on the hardness of hidden subgroup problem in abelian groups, like factoring and discrete log), and even then only if the QC is sufficiently large (in terms of gates and coherence length). I'm not trying to kiss your ass here, but we are so lucky that you (and other equally talented devs) have decided to focus your efforts on Bitcoin. |
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John I sent you a pretty good tip as part of this buy, can you please drop us all an update here?
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We don't need more Gen1 hash power, financials or updates. We need to get out of the ASIC stone age.
I gotta agree, we need new Bitfury-or-better USB devices like yesterday. |
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Ok guys so back to the main subject. ASICMINER once more hit a new bottom plus BTCT is closing soon! but it seems the price is kinda going a little bit up or stabilizing because of the update. Now here comes the question the mining and hardware sales are still kinda low.... So for the next few weeks prior to the new blades hashing. Are we to expect even lower divs?  I personally do think that. What are your opinions? depends how fast the blade prices come down. Right now they are too expensive for your average miner. |
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I am looking to sell a 6-month, partially escrowed 50 share AM futures contract.
Underlying can be Bitfunder shares at approx 1.5 ea or direct shares at approx 1.45 ea.
The partial escrow is a chance to lever your AM holdings. Reputable counterparties only please. PM if interested.
Potential counterparties please be aware that if you are long the future you do not receive the divs. I.e. Vycid can sell the future and buy the underlying, picking up the divs on the way. The price of the future should reflect the difference. Quite a nice trade idea actually. If the premium on the price of the contract is more or less the expected div (which it should be), this shouldn't be a problem.EDIT: You already pointed this out. Ie., with the current price being 1.5/share, and the contract being of 6 month duration, if the buyer expects a 0.015 weekly dividend per share, the price of the contract would be 1.886 BTC. I've been thinking about something else, which simply is borrowing ASICMiner shares at a certain interest rate. Anyone interested in this? I would borrow ASICMiner shares at 50% interest p.a. for a maximum of 6 months. So if we initiate the loan when the share price is 1.5 BTC, I would pay 0.7829% interest per week, or 0.0117 BTC per week for the duration of the loan. I can close the position at any time by returning the shares to the owner. Does this have interest for anyone? It would basically lock in the average dividend for the owner of the share, at 0.0117 BTC per week. Because it is a partially unsecured contract, the expectation that I should cover all of the potential dividends via premium is unreasonable. If you have 75 BTC sitting around in cash, you should just buy the shares now (and avoid escrow fees and counterparty risk). If you are very bullish on AM - I expect any potential counterparty here would be - then you probably do not have much spare cash. So this is a chance to increase your exposure by 75 BTC for much less up-front in collateral (the negotiated amount of collateral for both parties is naturally dependent on reputation and ability to pay). I don't understand who your potential counterparty is. My understanding is that it would be someone who is very bullish for the period of time greater than 6 months from now and who does not mind the fact that they would not receive any dividends for the next 6 months, but ignores that those dividends would be growing in order for the trade to be worthwhile (since the potential discount only makes sense if the price has risen, and for the price to rise the dividends must also). Someone who thinks AM won't compete well for the next 6 months (so losing divs doesn't matter) but then WILL compete well after then and will appreciate being able to option buying shares at 1.5 So the only way you lose is if AM is very late to Gen 3 (keeping the share price down) and then dominates all future competitors at that point. But if AM is very late to Gen 3, then the share price will fall and no one will exercise those options anyway. Again, I don't understand who your potential customer is. |
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Dude why are you always using wring numbers? Only 250 BTC per hour are generated, a bit more if the network speed is on the rise, slightly more because of fees, okay let it be 300 BTC/hour,
I hate to be that guy, but since you corrected his numbers: 150 BTC are generated each hour (6 blocks per hour * 25 btc per block) non adjusted. At a difficulty increase of roughly 33% average per period, we are closer to 200 BTC per hour in actual inflation. |
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ASICMINER was different from the beginning. Hash first then sell hardware later. Until gen2 are online don't expect an update with an announcement about "available" gen2 products. It will be exactly like when ASICMINER started booming. Hash first, Sell hardware later.
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Nothing has changed |
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He's not the "anti-BFL", come on. He's a businessman, and a good one, and he understands the importance of announcing his product.
Oh he's a good businessman but he hasn't ever pre announced a product just because he hasn't needed to (even though should have had to because he DID have other competitors taking preorders the entire time). Right, actually nothing has changed. Gotcha. You know, you suck at logic. |
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That doesn't account for the lost sales FC is suffering. Reputation alone doesn't mean his product will be cheaper or more efficient than the competition (who are actually largely more qualified to be making ASICs), so without information people will choose Cointerra or HashFast or whatever.
It WOULD be rational for FC to say nothing if he has an inferior product.
Friedcat has had to stop taking orders at least twice for a short period in the last 2 months. He is not losing sales of products he does not have. |
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Every day he does not publish a planned price, spec and release date for his Gen 2 hardware, he is losing customers who choose to preorder with his competition.
That is not and has never been his business model. He has never 1) Accepted preorders 2) Given planned prices or specs 3) Announced availability dates for new products Friedcat is the anti BFL. Some people appreciate that. Potential "customers" who want to preorder vaporware are not his market. If what I'm suggesting is true, that his biggest issues are sourcing-related, then he has worked at every step to maximize profit correctly and rationally. |
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I've said it before, there is a huge incentive for friedcat to withhold as much (and communicate as little) as he can justify from his paying dividends in order to
1) Bolster the company in the longer term through reinvestment
2) Not give strategic guidance to his competitors
3) Increase his holdings in the company and the lowest possible purchase price prior to more public actions
That said, the average hashrate was never sustained over 60TH/S. So, unless friedcat made more money selling products than he would have mining from them, there is not a victory. However, considering the markup and the fact that nothing ever sold will ROI in bitcoin, and the obvious opportunity to completely dominate asic sales for months, its possible that sourcing has been nearly as much of an issue for friedcat as it has been for everyone else in this space. Who knows. I do know that blades are already more price competitive than anything else shipping and that they likely still have an incredible markup (which we will soon learn about if they continue to drop in price).
Either he's totally beaten, giving up, or doing what a smart and rational actor would. Place your bets either way.
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Price is too high. If this was shipping today then sure, 3 more difficulty adjustments, no thanks.
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I just used that site with the default values for Cointerra IV starting in January. 46 day payback period, $3,970 net profit.
I should have mentioned, that site is using gox for the USD / BTC exchange rate. Putting in the current value of bitstamp or coinbase changes it down significantly. Also I was using the 14k cointerra dec device, not the newly added 6k jan cointerra device, which is showing a $2700 maximum profit, but that is assuming it was shipped Jan 1st. I'm not arguing they can't lower their margins even further, I'm saying that preorders do not look appealing at all right now, even with the best anticipated outcome and the now reduced pricing. And worse, if USD / BTC raises before then (in the next 4 months), its likely that a person would have been much better buying coins, since that will also eventually accelerate difficulty. The good news is that while difficulty does not drive prices up (instead raised prices drives up difficulty), with this much equipment being preordered, its likely that at some point people will realize they are better buying coins and that will drive prices up. What does this all mean for AM? Well friedcat said that the difficulty increase is still under their projections, so maybe he planned for it. We don't know, but he isn't often lying. |
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I have to admit that after I've read about the recent release of another model by cointerra competition is quite heavy atm. especially if i look at projected profits ( http://decentralizedhashing.com/bitcoin-mining-equipment-table/) from a miner's perspective it's simple maths to put money in a preorder right now instead of waiting and hoping for a good offer by AsicMiner. A little update how 2nd gen development is going really wouldn't hurt right now. LOL. Doing simple math reveals that even if cointerra ships mid dec, their miner is likely to lose money. If its closer to January, their miner will lose thousands. You have to factor in difficulty increases. http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ bases that on recent difficulty increases and not speculation. Then there is the whole game of preorders, and that's been working real fucking well hasn't it. The bottom line is either buy stuff that ships now and could ROI (which is only AM) or buy coins. |
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Div predictions? I'll go first: 0.012
Same. |
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No... it's not. They're usually announced at shareholder meetings or industry conferences.
Oh, so thats how Apple does it? I always thought that everyone, including shareholders, found out at the exact same time. But fuck Apple, what do they know. |
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