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Hello from 2017. it's amazing that after 5 years here is still such a discussion.
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Hi, Richard
I too not so long ago thought about this. But on the Internet, I did not find other like-minded people.
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Do you know the principle of 10%? Every time you get new money, save 10% in order to invest them into some business
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That drop today seemed weird. I wouldn't be surprised if exchange owners buy/sell based on information about incoming bank wires. Also, a bunch of whiny traders were piling on because 700 got "rejected".
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Agree that longer term plays are still relatively easy. Those would be the high "win rate" plays. Losing edge on the shorter term plays will have a dramatic influence on variance tho. It's where the bodies are buried ! A slow leakage, that slowly hastens in time due to excess activity. The analogy being to the online poker player that met his own eventual demise by being overly aggressive and too "active" with other very competent players. Variance skyrocketed with few people noticing or fully appreciating it. Some of these otherwise competent players went bust from an extended "cold streak", farther stretched than anticipated. Some of them had a "hot streak" of course, which only instilled a false sense of confidence in one's "game" and talents. Those players would move up in stakes rapidly, with that confidence, before the variance would inevitably bite them in the ass.  Least in Bitcoin there's a simple solution, focus on the higher win rate plays which sometimes require sitting tight. Don't fly too close to the sun. I completely agree with your observations. It takes time and intelligence to stay "up to date" and understand what drives the market. You can't expect to be lazy, not do your homework, and still get paid (i.e. the 5-minute timeframe gambling). |
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I have absolutely no idea what a future is and what that chart means.
A futures contract is an agreement to buy (or sell) Bitcoin at a given price, at a certain point in the future. It is a financial product that large Bitcoin miners may use to hedge their positions. That 'spreads' chart is the difference in price between BTC spot, and the 3 Months Futures contracts. You will see that prior to Bitcoin taking off, the spreads put in a lot of 'W' market structure. You will see at the peak of the parabolic move, 3 Month Futures were trading at a $50 premium to cash markets. You will see currently, that premium is around $7. You will also see lots of bearish M market structure. Futures price gives an indication of what the Big Boys are thinking about Bitcoin and therefore a good indication of what direction Bitcoin is going to go in. ok see let me see if i understand. if i made a contract with you today to buy 1 bitcoin from you after 3 months and I pay you $600 (would the payment be directly? I guess so). That would be a future contract with about $24 over spot, and indicate that we both believe the price will rise? Are contracts ever made under spot? Is it possible to sell contracts to third parties? What forces people to keep their contract (assuming it's no smart contracts, hey, if these things are common in the stock market, smart contracts could totally work there, right?)? It sounds a a bit similar to options, but there's still some differences i think. Because with options, you aren't forced to buy/sell. It is very similar to options, the main difference being that futures don't have a strike price. The quarterly contracts get settled in 17 days from now. As we get closer to the settlement date, those contracts will gradually start trading closer and closer to the index price (the average spot price of a number of exchanges). But it's important to understand that it converges to the index price, so that blue chart may go up and down a bit, but eventually it will go to zero: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limit_(mathematics). |
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The futures price should converge to the bitcoin price, that's normal.
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I actually saw this as an opportunity sell a few, because btc pretty much went right where I was hoping it would go. Granted, my position has never been this big before, so it was about time to take some off.
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I would start trading a larger range, and I personally use an inverted profit/loss ratio. In my mind right now, in the face of the reward halving, it is very unlikely that we'll go under 450. However, it is much more likely that we'll hit 600 instead. Don't tap out when things look bad. Once you pick the trade, sit in it and don't give up. Also, I never trade with stops or leverage. Hope this will help  |
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Just do the opposite of what you normally do, if you're consistently losing money. I'm not kidding. That was my first step to start making money trading.
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Has anyone been able to locate and trade this product with Interactive Brokers?
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Probably because market is closed currently.
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Can you please show some volume numbers on the depth chart?
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how can we short GBTC?
You can't. I don't think one can go short yet. That constraint should get lifted one month from the date it started trading. There are probably a few hedge funders salivating at the opportunity to short those crazy-high bids. Also, there is probably a lot of interest from accredited investors to go directly to the trust and buy these shares at par. Those shares in turn will be available for trading in the open markets a year from now. Isn't it kind of crazy to short an asset with such a low liquidity? I mean mostly actually offering the option to short such an asset. How do you enforce margin-calls, etc. if there aren't enough shares to be bought/sold at reasonable prices, to begin with??? I got burned pretty bad this way with GPRO, the price just kept going higher because of shorts being margin called while shares were still locked up. |
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It took a while, but it was definitely worth the wait. Also, getting it framed took another week. Very happy with the end result! |
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Does the poster come with text in the lower right corner?
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Wall Street is coming soon. I don't think any of the past cycles will matter once they come in. It will be a whole new ball game.
So true. |
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