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61  Economy / Speculation / Re: Looks like the Manipulator is back in the market. Buy-hold-SELL SELL SELL on: September 07, 2011, 03:54:45 PM
Why does it have to be a manipulator and not just bitcoin miners trying to save their own behinds?
62  Economy / Speculation / Re: The REAL reason price went down and why it will go up on: September 07, 2011, 03:49:20 PM
I must admit that this is an interesting argument, and the first one I've seen that actually attempts to use real economic principles to support a high bitcoin price.  I still disagree though, the bitcoin economy is still tiny compared to the USD or the Euro, and should have a lower price as a result.

So [Company A] with a market cap of $1M, say, has 1M total shares, all privately owned. What is the value per share?

[Company B], has a market cap of $1k, has 10 shares, all priveately owned. What is the value per share?

Company A is the USD, Company B is BTC.

-Jix
This is not exactly how macro-economics work, unfortunately.
63  Economy / Speculation / Re: The REAL reason price went down and why it will go up on: September 07, 2011, 03:48:04 PM
I must admit that this is an interesting argument, and the first one I've seen that actually attempts to use real economic principles to support a high bitcoin price.  I still disagree though, the bitcoin economy is still tiny compared to the USD or the Euro, and should have a lower price as a result.
So if there are 21 Bitcoins (highly divisible of course) in total for us, the nominal exchange rate still should not exceed those of major currencies?

 Huh
Not exactly what I was trying to say.  What I was saying is that without a larger economy, and lower inflation, we shouldn't expect that the bitcoin would be extremely high priced.  Currency prices are driven primarily by imports and exports.  The primary import for the bitcoin economy is electricity, and compared to that import, the exports are very small, therefore we should see a decrease in the bitcoin until exports increase to match the import of electricity.

Added:
Or we should see the import of electricity to decline to match the export of goods (which is much more likely to happen).
64  Economy / Speculation / Re: The REAL reason price went down and why it will go up on: September 07, 2011, 03:27:59 PM
I must admit that this is an interesting argument, and the first one I've seen that actually attempts to use real economic principles to support a high bitcoin price.  I still disagree though, the bitcoin economy is still tiny compared to the USD or the Euro, and should have a lower price as a result.
65  Economy / Speculation / Re: I confess on: September 07, 2011, 06:44:07 AM
Bitcoin prices are based entirely on speculation.  People have been waiting for it to go back up and now it has, they are all buying it.  I hope it will go up to $14.
It wont, unfortunately.  Unless we see a new flood of investors or the (bitcoin) economy as a whole grows a ton.
66  Economy / Speculation / Re: We control the prices... Not these bears. We got what they can't have... on: September 07, 2011, 06:40:41 AM
Miners you SEE... YOU CONTROL THE PRICES!!! PULL ALL YOUR SELL ORDERS NOW!!
Only in that they can chose to sell or not.  If no one wants to pay a higher price for bitcoins, it wont matter how much you stop selling; however, miners could certainly flood the market and drive bitcoin to new, and exciting lows.
67  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin at USD $6.50... is something burning? on: September 06, 2011, 11:29:57 PM
Bitcoins have lost its flame.  Its burning out and burning fast.  Mining is pointless, no one accepts it, no point in using it, takes 4 days to even get money anywhere to buy bitcoins, price is way to unstable to be used realistically were fucked.  Great concept.  Great pyramid scheme for the first guys, now its just a little toy for nerds to play with.
it never anything but a nerd toy
68  Economy / Speculation / Re: Actually btc is going down because... on: September 06, 2011, 11:18:04 PM
Well, so you are saying that the market, while having a strong community can just vanish out of thin air for no reason? We are all still sitting here, and so are the big guys with large fortunes of BTC. How can all of that money just disappear?
An item is only valuable for trading purposes if someone else is willing to accept it in exchange for something else.  You could have a million bitcoins, and if no one wants them, they are worthless, period.
69  Economy / Speculation / Re: EVERYONE CALM DOWN on: September 06, 2011, 10:51:38 PM
Also, <censor> Bitcoin, let it die, or help it along. Bitcoin needs to die to give a crypto-currency that isn't designed like total shit to arrive and gain a market.

Bitcoin was a great proof-of-concept. It served it's purpose, not let it pass and the next evolution to arrive.
I am tempted to agree; however, if we keep migrating to newer and newer platforms we will never be able to develop a stable economy around one system.
70  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin bear commentary, what happens if bitcoin breaks $8? on: September 05, 2011, 10:12:59 PM
Its the beginning of the month, people's power bills are coming due, and its a three day weekend, and people what to have some steaks to through on the grill.  I expect to see a rally towards the end of the month when everyone thinks that we've hit the bottom and it will briefly spike back up near $8, followed by another dive next month.  I expect bitcoin to be trading at or lower than $5 by year's end.
71  Other / Beginners & Help / boards on: September 04, 2011, 07:41:50 AM
When building a mining rig, does it matter the type of motherboard you use, and if so, how?
72  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: why price so low on: September 02, 2011, 11:16:26 PM
k well regardless what your math skillz include anything relating to US investments or stock markets are garbage. people want to get on here and talk about how bitcoin is overapreciated and really worth less. wait til the real estate market starts adjusting to what it should be again. fucking flames. there is no guarantees. let people do their math all they want. like the guys who are so smart and say silver and gold are bad investments. yes they might be in a bubble right now... but in the long run they are going to make you the most... second to bitcoins of course.

Actually, in the long run, investments in precious metals traditionally don't outperform stocks.  Neither do currency investments.  So it might be better to say that those are better short term investments.

New currency + uncertain future + controversy + low volume = high volatility.
exactly
73  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Old motherboards? on: September 02, 2011, 11:00:32 PM
Related question: does it matter what kind of motherboard you are using, and if so, how much?  (I figure a noob question like that is perfectly acceptable on a newbie board)
74  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: why price so low on: September 02, 2011, 05:34:47 PM
Yes.  My personal opinion is that the fundamentals are still really poor - there aren't very many merchants accepting BTC, so the purchase cycle (Buy BTC on the market, go shopping, pay BTC, merchant sells BTC on the market) can be fulfilled with very few coins - you only need enough to sit in the buyers' wallets until they make their purchase, which realistically means a few days.  That's what I consider to be the fundamental price of the BTC, and it's much lower than where we are now, and it will be until more people accept the BTC for payment.

What's holding the price up right now is speculation: basically, people are hoarding it hoping the price will go up.  Short term the only way that will work is if people can push enough hype to get more people to "invest" (IE, keep speculating and hoarding).  That's what you're seeing in this thread, and from anyone who keeps saying "Up up up!".  People who keep saying the sky's the limit without mentioning any downside are usually the ones holding the bag, and they're trying to pump the price back up because they're losing their investment.  Long-term this never works.

If all the speculation ends (and it's starting to look like we're running out of suckers), the price will fall to the level supported by actual use as currency.  That means cents, not dollars, until we have much more real commerce happening in BTC.  That's fine by me because I want to use BTC as a currency, and it doesn't really matter to me what the price is - I just want it to be somewhat stable, and I think that will happen at a much lower price.

Next post: a bag holder with an insightful rebuttal.  Smiley
I couldn't agree more!  I think that the biggest thing is that BTC doesn't penetrate the economic structure deep enough to warrant accepting it at the retail level, unless you are trying to be novel.  And novelty only goes so far.  That's why I said that if a wholesaler or two get into the BTC game we would see a real explosion in BTC utility, because then retailers don't have to take such a risk on inputs.  Also, if a legit lender (ie not a loan shark) started issuing loans in BTC.  Then you would start to get a sizable economy and start warranting a larger exchange rate.
75  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Need a loan. on: September 01, 2011, 10:25:13 PM
Why not just sell something on ebay then, and stop behaving very suspiciously on a bitcoin forum?
76  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: tanked on: September 01, 2011, 06:24:26 AM
I was just wondering if anyone was running a mineral water cooled rig like

http://www.pugetsystems.com/submerged.php

and/or what people thought about it?
Mineral oil and mineral water are two very different things!
You are absolutely right, my bad.
77  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: mtgox and bruce wagner on: September 01, 2011, 06:22:04 AM
I've talked to Bruce and watched his show several times, and he is a really nice guy.... From my personal experience, it seems unlikely that he is the conman everyone is claiming him to be. He has a very open and honest character... Not at all 'shady' IMO.
I can honestly say that I know very little about this guy, but what I can say is this; con-men make their living by getting people to trust them, then violating that trust.  If you do something for a living, you tend to be good at it, or you are a very thin, malnourished sort that lives under a bridge.  I am certainly not tossing him under the bus just yet, but on the other hand, if he IS a con-man, he will probably seem very trust-worthy right up, until he walks away with all your money.
78  Other / Beginners & Help / tanked on: September 01, 2011, 06:04:59 AM
I was just wondering if anyone was running a mineral oil(corrected) cooled rig like

http://www.pugetsystems.com/submerged.php

and/or what people thought about it?
79  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: why price so low on: September 01, 2011, 05:59:19 AM
critmass, tell me where you can can play poker online with us dollars or a us credit card. YAY land of the free!



just recently someone moved 2 million btc or about 20 million dollars, can you do that with dollar bills? without informing the government?


Perhaps there is some value to BTC beyond the scope of your life.

Just saying you cant look at the limited things you want to look at and say 'well it doesnt work for me, so it must be worthless", you have to expand your thinking and say "well what could it do for other people besides myself and why would it be better than dollars"
You are making the wild assumption that I am against bitcoin.  I am not against it at all.  I actually like the idea a ton, and I am looking forward to becoming an active member of the bitcoin community.  That said, I realize that the current price of bitcoins can not be supported with the size of the bitcoin economy.  A 10% discount on alpaca socks isn't going to drive many people into the market, especially when they have to deal with their own local currencies for most day to day transactions.  And retailers only have the incentive of attracting a special breed of geek and the major disincentive of a very unstable, unsafe, risky currency that can't buy most of the things that they need for a successful business.

My point, obviously not clearly stated, was this; the surge in the price of bitcoin is mostly artificial and is starting to slide down again because the economy that supports it is not nearly large enough.  Now if some wholesalers got on board with bitcoin, then bitcoin would start to warrant something like $8USD/BTC.
80  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: why price so low on: September 01, 2011, 01:46:22 AM
IMHO bitcoin prices right now are too high.  When I first heard about this, I was expecting BTC to be trading for less than dollars, or at the very most, around dollars, but $8 per bitcoin?  I think that bitcoin is a great idea, but I think its far from being a full fledged currency.  Most of the sites that I seen are selling a tightly limited number of common products, nothing that makes me want to jump ship of my dollars just yet.
As far as people jacking up prices, look at it from their prospective.  They are taking a much larger risk, accepting BTC than USD.  They deserve to be compensated for that risk, which you probably don't mind if you mined them, and you're happy that you don't have to waste your time going through one of the exchanges to get the cash to buy on a regular site, plus its kind of exciting to buy stuff with BTC.
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