To all those who are sure an intermediate drop or even a reversal is not possible: please explain how scaling will be resolved smoothly? Seems to me the best-case scenarios for this chronic problem are thin on the ground.
The TA in this thread seems to go quite nicely with the rate at which the percentage of Bitcoin Unlimited blocks are increasing.
When will the scaling happen? Do we have a firm time frame? No, not really. The problem is multi-faceted. 1. Scaling must happen soon to allow more transactions than the current 3 or 4 per second. The "mempool" (backlog of transactions to process on the blockchain) is frequently ballooning in size, causing increasing delays (anything up to a couple of days has been reported) and increasing transaction fees, at rates no-one thinks is safe. 2. Until recently it was more or less taken for granted among many that the Bitcoin Core team proposal to solve scaling, known as "Segwit", would be adopted willingly by miners and therefore activate. A threshold of 95% of mining power has to adopt Segwit for it to activate. This threshold now appears to have been hopelessly ambitious; Segwit adoption among miners has plateaued at around 25% for several months now. 3. There is another proposal on the table - "Bitcoin Unlimited". Taking a very different approach - some say the original intention of Satoshi - to the problem (not going to try to brief on the technicalities here), Bitcoin Unlimited appears to fast be gaining traction. As of recently Unlimited adoption has overtaken Segwit at speed. Check here: https://coin.dance/blocks4. If Bitcoin Unlimited really gains enough traction for miners to be confident enough to begin using the scaling features it provides, there is a distinct possibility that this may split the Bitcoin chain, something that has been unthinkable until now. At any rate, there are a lot of claims that the software and the effects of its scaling features on the network have not been tested enough. Thank you! Please feel free to come back and share your opinion on the hard fork I am glad to see someone else with a level head on the matter. You know, a lot of bitcoiners are permabulls and do not like the reality of any bearish news or bearish TA. Always in denial Have you been following this thread for a while? I ask because my TA has always made room for a possible surprise leg down and the hard fork (or possible HF) was my main reason for absurdly suppressed prices. You know, like $300 on the poll above I've been generally lurking for years, including checking your thread for a while. Thanks for putting all the effort into keeping it updated. Regarding the critical issue of scaling, which is coming to a head now whether anyone likes it or not, it makes me feel for the first time ever that the market really is entering a "greater fools" phase, where the only real hope of price increases is based on FOMO buyers who don't understand the implications of what is going on. Some have been pointing to the Ethereum split last year for comparison. I think that will look like a piece of cake relative to a split in Bitcoin, if it happens. It's not smart money that is buying bitcoin and the alts rights now IMO. How high it goes before coming down depends on the number of rich fools and how long it takes for the smart money that has been holding and/or bought months ago start to dump hard first. |
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Down we go. I'm all cash for the portion I'm willing to risk on exchanges.
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A story of one of the losers  I also loose with open order at 875$... Time to go back in the game it was already >1100$. My bad to have follow this thread. Following the thread is a good idea as it is TA information freely given. Taking responsibility for your own actions is an even better idea. |
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Yes yes ETF amazing recovery etc etc blablabla. Thats not the point. Why are the shitty altcoins pumping like hell and we are stagnating and losing 5 % marketcap ? And volume is really low.
Imagine the walls we'll observe when that value comes back into Bitcoin. |
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let's open a quick debate...
Looking at the chart objectivily, don't you see a huge buying interest?
LedgerX, Cme Future, crowd has been focusing in what they're all speaking about, smart money doing the opposite...
I do. It's about ready to explode. Buy or die time soon. That was prophetic. |
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Well in my analysis bitcoin trend really shows good progress these few months from january to february, it has a good performance as wel. That is really a profitable record of bitcoin since the previous years drowned by its price in market, and now its a histotic happening that brings bitcoin into the peak of success.
So I should sell then. Better yet, you should panic sell at the bottom. That's one popular strategy. I prefer to sell high, and then buy low. The goal is more bitcoins. |
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Well in my analysis bitcoin trend really shows good progress these few months from january to february, it has a good performance as wel. That is really a profitable record of bitcoin since the previous years drowned by its price in market, and now its a histotic happening that brings bitcoin into the peak of success.
So I should sell then. |
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I just watched the most ridiculous Bitcoin COIN ETF hit piece on Bloomberg video: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-12-19/winklevoss-twins-prepare-first-ever-bitcoin-fundConstant pictures/ video spliced in of 'physical bitcoins' in the background (which everyone knows are collectable and not the real bitcoin, makes it look like a toy), the interviewee pointing out negative after negative, etc. Both the interviewer and the interviewee were literally laughing and scoffing at the idea of an ETF the whole time, like it was one big joke. It's like the Media has an agenda to keep Average Joe investors skeptical of Bitcoin and scared away from touching it, and especially investing in the ETF. I agree with the guest and it seemed pretty reasonable for a corporate media piece. You're better off holding bitcoins than an etf and it will "catch on" due to mistrust of central banking. |
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Double toppish?
Depends, the next 6 hours are critical! Seriously though, we did achieve a higher high and it's going up again. Whew... |
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Thanks for putting your thoughts out there Africoin. I appreciate your efforts. I don't expect anyone to be able to predict the future and there is no sense in being angry when the world or markets inevitably don't play out as we wish. I'm almost 100% coin atm but have been taking small profits on the way up to prepare for a bear phase and to lessen any emotional blow of a quick drop on bad news. One's own emotional state is as important as that of the market and probably a lot more important in fact.
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Cheers gentlemen! It's been a long strange trip.
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"Break the purple line up will mean that the previous forecast is not true. In this case, the price probably will visit the top blue line." - Bitcoin Wang
We penetrated the purple deeply with some oomph !
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Back to holding coinz it is!  |
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Yeah, forecasting price is similar to weather forecasting. There are no sure bets as nature (and markets) often do something different than what all the data may suggest. It does work a lot of the time though. If weathermen are predicting 90% chance of severe storms, it might not be a good idea to plan a picnic with the family. It depends on every individual's situation as well. As Millionero suggests, I am in a position where I may have to use some savings so in this case it was better for me to sell a fraction of my holdings near recent highs, hold cash as a sure thing to prevent needing to sell at lower, and then rebuying if trend lines are broken solidly.
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"Break the purple line up will mean that the previous forecast is not true. In this case, the price probably will visit the top blue line." - Bitcoin Wang
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I'm in provided there is proof of legitimacy from trusted members.
Name: silverfuture
Posts: 872
Activity: 872
Position: Hero Member
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We're currently @ approx 1060 and have been battling it out for a number of hours now. That is not above the pink line in the chart, it's almost dead on.
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Textbook handle if that plays out. So if it goes higher from here Master's chart is invalidated? |
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Organic growth/breakout yes..but the PBOC still have there exchanges ready to be slammed. Is this an suckers rally  I think so. Can't say I haven't been tempted to buy back but if this doesn't have much steam, it'll be back down. I think there is too much excited bullish sentiment at this point and a lot of uncertainty still. Could be wrong. I'll be buying if we see some strong buying and big volumes to get over ATH, but until then... |
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