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I'm looking at Nov. 2013 late rise and still can't shake out how quickly the price rose.
The idea of this repeating simply has me in awe. Especially if you consider the amount of money standing on the sideline at this point are straight out frightening
I read almost the same from another member not that long ago. Would be crazy if the same thing happens almost 2 years later again.But this time please without hardcore dumping! so effectively you are saying you want a new willy bot. be careful what you wish for. I am sure there are more losers than winners from the mt goxxing |
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That's it for me. I sold all with a $5 profit per coin. I'm not going to lose money and I'm not going to sit on them for another year watching the price bounce between $200 and $300. I want to see the price go beyond $350 before I buy again. I have better things to do with my money.
I think that is a smart move. unfortunately my av buy price is way above $300 so am holding on in the small chance of not losing so much when I do sell soemm of bitcoins - but if you can get out now with a profit I think sensible as I consider the price cannot get above say $350 any time soon ( ie as in 2-3 years at least and that is being optimistic) the problem is no new demand and the winklevoss twin nor halving etc are not doing anything to offset that fact. so the price is going to languish in the $200-$300 for some time (and may well drop for a period under $200). |
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It's a chicken and egg problem. Without assurance that the network will scale, we have to assume it won't (until more information causes us to change our assumptions). So worldwide economic system goes into a severe depression. This may be inflationary or DEFLATIONARY. Without active Central Bank intervention, it will be deflationary (the money multiplier goes into reverse) meaning instead of a bunch of rapidly devaluing dollars, everybody has no dollars at all. In that scenario, Bitcoin may be useful for evading capital controls, protection against depositor bail-ins, etc, but NOT as a hedge on non-existent inflation.
If there is runaway inflation/hyperinflation, Bitcoin may be useful for evading PRICE controls and as an inflation hedge.
The problem is that even assuming one of these scenarios takes place (a safe assumption IMHO), the network would crash with the extra transaction load. We're not talking about a doubling of transactions. We're talking about a doubling EVERY WEEK. Even if one of these scaling solutions is implemented, transaction capacity could easily still be exceeded. There is no way currently to deal with a problem of that magnitude short of removing the blocksize limit altogether.
If another cryptocoin scales better, people will be essentially forced to use it instead and they would have no reason to ever switch back because the altcoin core devs can simply copy any code improvements Bitcoin adopts to compete. Miners who switch also would have to reason to switch back because hashpower makes a network more secure which causes demand for coins to go up which makes mining more profitable which brings in more miners and hashpower in a virtuous cycle. Once the initiative and momentum are lost, it's lost forever. reference AOL, MySpace, etc.
Citing coupla early internet fail of a corporations does not make your argument much better. surely by some time bitpay et al. could implode. Management that is in denial and slow to react to changing situations on the ground is the issue. It's very relevant. I think your points are spot on. The fiat system works ok until it doesnot. And its then one of the major reasons for having bitcoin comes into play. Its like overseas travel insurance - the chances of getting really sick and hospitalised are low but when they happen you need the insurance or you are stuffed. Unless we are sure how bitcoin is going to react (scale) there is concern. Its a bit like thinking you have full travel insurance when the medical clause is missing. you are only cover for losing your camera |
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Mind blown in 3. . . 2. . . 1. . .
Could this be the rise to $10,000 USD / BTC ? ? ? Not so much a comment as an observation, if you are saying it repeats but bigger wont the other bit also be longer? (the flat part)  if the first rise was caused by the willy bot like the second rise was (to over a $1000) then they may well be a "pattern". But is a willy bot pattern ie unless we have another willy bot I do not think this helps in speculating on future price levels - but hey this is bitcoin - anything is possible |
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Gemini launched, and the price didn't tank, actually nothing really happened to the price because of Gemini recently, unlike the Coinbase launch. Good deal, let's continue a steady uptrend through the halving!
Gemini appeals to what i call the "cautious adventurer". The 'adventurer" market for bitcoin is quite small as so many people do not know about or are unsure what is going to happen with it so only a small % (adventurers) will be intersted in buying at all. Then we come to the exchanges - the existing will have accommodated most of the adventurers if they had really wanted bitcoins. Gemini though would have appealed to the cautious as it has the normal bank "protections" but they would still are just a subset of the adventurer market not a new market. So it was not expected there would be queues to get involved especially since bitcoin has since the beginning of the year been in a $200-$300 range. So if it went to $200 soon and they bought in at $240 (current price) they could easily have lost $40 (16%) on every bitcoin. And if they were thinking their 'rushing' to buy might put pressure on the price (and that is possible) they would be even more reluctant to act. |
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I do agree that this is best time to hold as after halving there will be huge increase in price of bitcoin.Bitcoin is on the way to be most previous and valuable digital currency of future.Halving of blocks will be one more step towards this goal.
the supply side has long been known. but the demand side has been very hard to read. we have lots of market manipulation even by the very exchanges that help "set" the price as they trade in the market too. in the last few months the price has been in the $200-$300 range. I think this range is so large that it will not be possible to see any halving price effect even if there is one.  |
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I think as demand dwindles, as the original use-cases become less and less relevant, we should expect Bitcoin to hover around the cost of production, which I understand varies widely but is a little over a hundred bucks roughly. I don't expect to see 800 or 690 or 500 or whatever ever again.
Bitcoin doesn't have a "cost of production" in the classic sense. Difficulty self-adjusts. Mining activity is driven by price and hardware cost, not the other way round. agree that demand is not increasing and some uses-cases are less relevent so like you I do not expect bitcoin to rise significantly (other than for short periods through willybot type activities as per mt gox when the people think they can make a "killing') the price though should settle close to its store of wealth (SoW) value not the cost of production. Who knows what SoW is with bitcoin but since it is still being speculated I assume it is below its current price band ie $200 -$300. It possibly could be just $10-$40. That is not bad for bitcoin itself (though not ideal for people like me who bought in after these sort of prices existed) as if the right incentives are in place eg fee income bitcoin can exist and still do much of what it set out to do. |
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im thinking price should go up, but no one can really be sure
it seems to me that people who think the price will go up would logically be buying more now ie they are getting cheaper coins now that the future. That inflates demand a little and maybe moves the current price up a little. But when halving comes (because of the above) demand should less than normal/now. it may be that lower demand roughly matches the lower increase in supply so there is no major price movement. Just becasue the rate a new bitcoins arriving to be bought drops does not mean there is a 'shortage' for buyers and so they push the price up in a bidding war. I think demand is so weak you may see little change  |
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the Bitcoin Price rose by more than 80% just in 2 years!! https://i.imgur.com/g1PjOaU.pngIn fact, compared to two years ago, our prices have been rising, despite it is slow, but this speed still is fast faster than the vast majority of things, the Bitcoin Price rose by 80% just in 2 years!! so for $500 price, even $1,000 price, I also believe it eventually will be realized in one day, but not in this year or next year. I estimate that the price will reach at $500 in 2021. i think your "let it go" circle is too small - it needs to extend all the way out to todays date as i consider current price is still a hangover from the goxing and unless the manipulators keep playing with it in the $200-$300 level it will do down markedly. perhaps to the $110 or below. so bitcoin will have grown 0% in 2 years. more bullishly however if you take your start point not at $110 but go back when it was $2 then the growth to $110 is very very good and if the past is an indicator to the future $500 is still soon |
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Mt. Gox might have had their situation, but the loss in reputation is not that bad. The price might be about 30 USD higher or something around that ballpark
I think that the price today without MTgox would be $2-$120 range. the willy bot made all the speculators jump in and send it to $1000. Since then slowly those that bought in at high prices have sold off at losses and got out. hence the price going down to $200-$300 where it is being held by a few big market players. it would go a lot lower if they did not intervene every time it goes below $200. I think the longer term is still good for bitcoin and while I see buying more bitcoins at $200-$300 is currently overpriced I see the price going up about 2.2 times per annum since the $2 bottom so in a year or two the price might well be more "naturally" in the $200-$300 range so longer term holders will do well. (assuming we do not have another crash to about $60 which is what I see is todays equivalent to the $2 bottom - if that happens in may be some years before we get back to $200-$300. AS another poster said bitcoins big selling point is that it is "sound money". That takes several steps of understanding for the average person to get that as fiat (and for protection gold) work well for them. I read recently an article that listed uber, airb&B and bitcoin all together as "disruptive' technologies. But that is misleading in a way as the first two are at their heart cheaper alternatives ( taxis and hotel rooms) so they are easily grasped by people and have taken off. Seeing the need to get some "sound money" is much more complex. It is sort of "insurance' in case the system starts to collapse. But you need to know how easily the system can collapse to be motivated enough to get some of your savings into bitcoin. Its a long road but time is on bitcoins side - gold was not rushed to get where it is |
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Technically that's a gross oversimplification of the math and processes involved. It will tighten supply, which could send the price up tenfold. Unless it disrupts the mining industry in such a way that it sends BTC plummeting.
A tightened supply is only a factor if there's increasing demand. Right now there are more than enough existing coins for everyone and mined coins are only a fraction of daily volume. Maybe there'll be a psychosomatic boost but I hope people aren't pinning too much on it. Even just keeping current demand will ensure a rise in price when there is a smaller supply. since january the price has been in the $200-$300 range and it is changing according to manipulation ie a few players altering the market so I do not think we have "normal' demand as in other sectors that might alter a little to some small change in the rate if of supply (like the halving). so we will never know ie I expect after the halving for the price to still be in the $200-$300 range if the few players wish for it to be so. so its not about supply but demand (or rather the lack of it). we need a demand test like the amount of new money that COIN might attract to get a feel where the price might go. If the new comers do not buy in at a $200-$300 level then it is an indication it is too high to get demand |
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Why so much agro and upset about Jorge's posts? He's not threatening you (or perhaps he is somehow?). He has a view and he expresses and articulates that view pretty well. I don't agree with much of what he says either but I appreciate that his posts are coherent, quite well written and free from personal attacks or vitriol. In fact, he's very gracious in his responses to many of you that get all so incensed that he's expressing the views that he is; and this is indicative that some of what he's saying has seriously hooked your innards and is tearing at you in some manner. That you're responding in such an affronted way says to me you're not 100% sure and his line of thought on this stuff causes internal conflict.
If you don't agree with his take on Bitcoin (and crypto in general), just point out calmly and unemotionally where his logic, assumptions or beliefs are flawed. I think it's very good to have someone like him putting the ideas up he does as it makes for interesting consideration of his views versus alternatives.
Isn't this what a thread like this is about?
Your gracious friend has been trolling this forum for years now. I agree that there is no need to get all fired up about it, but to "point out calmly and unemotionally where his logic, assumptions or beliefs are flawed" is even more of a waste. agree Jorge's posts are coherent etc even though I do not always agree with what he has said. But both he and those opposing his views about the benefits or otherwise of inflation/deflation etc seem to talking about some " stable' position in the future that I am not sure might ever come to pass. I see the store of wealth/intrinsic value of bitcoin at present being between $2 -$40 (if it exists at all). the rest is heavy and speculation. So the 'working person' is not going to buy bitcoin as though it may be deflationary they might lose (at $250 per coin now) over $200 before that benefit kicks in. That is not a good deal For the rich that build skyscrapers they might buy a few bitcoins in case it really does go up in price 2-3 times per annum on average across 5-10 years but most of their money will go into other risky investments where there has been some history of good gains eg building retirement villages. Bitcoin is too unpredictable to put lots of money into it at present. With gold it has moved about 5% over 5 years. That to me is a store of wealth. Bitcoin is years away from that sort of " stable" position. |
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here is something to make you shudder. In New Zealand we have a current huge house price spike in part due to foreign investors "speculating' the price will go up even more. As these people are hard to get at by the tax people (we have just introduced a capital gains tax they may 'avoid") the government is introducing a system where intermediaries have to get the tax. see the article below. Imagine if governments introduced that for bitcoin ie saying they do not know if the bitcoins being sent from person a to person b have been taxed properly or at all when with person a so they will ask for a 20% tax as it passes through an exchange (eg the soon to be approved twins one) or if person b is a recognisable entity eg a big retailer like amazon they will ask for the 20% from them. (Retailers already collect gst ( VAT) here so administratively it could be done overnight). that might knock the current price of $200-$300 around a bit eh?  they may be slow but tax collectors usually always get their way in the end http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/71846181/new-withholding-tax-on-residential-landBitcoin has already been classfied as VAT exempt in multiple tax jurisdictions , don't go expecting anyone to classify it as a VATable. sorry did not mean to imply that it would attract VAT itself - just that as retailers have already been forced to be VAT collectors and have easily adjustable computerised sales recording systems so they can be be forced to add a bitcoin tax of say 20% as well as any VAT. ie if you pay by bitcoin it will cost you more for the item than fiat or credit card. if I was anyone that was concerned about bitcoin hurting their business (eg bank? western union?) I would be getting my lobbyists onto the politicians saying that if people cannot prove how they got the money ie cannot prove it has already been taxed then they need to tax it at some point. It would of course lead to many anomalies (and cases of double taxation) but that is not their problem. In fact the more bitcoin seems hard/potentially unfair etc to use they more they win. bitcoin has not yet been faced with the status quo fighting back . when it does it will be fierce and nasty. it will make the core/xt internal fight look like a walk in the park |
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here is something to make you shudder. In New Zealand we have a current huge house price spike in part due to foreign investors "speculating' the price will go up even more. As these people are hard to get at by the tax people (we have just introduced a capital gains tax they may 'avoid") the government is introducing a system where intermediaries have to get the tax. see the article below. Imagine if governments introduced that for bitcoin ie saying they do not know if the bitcoins being sent from person a to person b have been taxed properly or at all when with person a so they will ask for a 20% tax as it passes through an exchange (eg the soon to be approved twins one) or if person b is a recognisable entity eg a big retailer like amazon they will ask for the 20% from them. (Retailers already collect gst ( VAT) here so administratively it could be done overnight). that might knock the current price of $200-$300 around a bit eh? they may be slow but tax collectors usually always get their way in the end http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/71846181/new-withholding-tax-on-residential-landA lot of unlikely "what ifs" in there. agree it may not happen quite like this but the tax men have traditionally collected tax by tracing movements in fiat. Where that begins to be replaced in part by bitcoin they will go after bitcoin or the tax take available to be used for government spending will go down and no government will want that |
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here is something to make you shudder. In New Zealand we have a current huge house price spike in part due to foreign investors "speculating' the price will go up even more. As these people are hard to get at by the tax people (we have just introduced a capital gains tax they may 'avoid") the government is introducing a system where intermediaries have to get the tax. see the article below. Imagine if governments introduced that for bitcoin ie saying they do not know if the bitcoins being sent from person a to person b have been taxed properly or at all when with person a so they will ask for a 20% tax as it passes through an exchange (eg the soon to be approved twins one) or if person b is a recognisable entity eg a big retailer like amazon they will ask for the 20% from them. (Retailers already collect gst ( VAT) here so administratively it could be done overnight). that might knock the current price of $200-$300 around a bit eh? they may be slow but tax collectors usually always get their way in the end http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/71846181/new-withholding-tax-on-residential-land |
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That stood the test of time: Proved to be worth of trust, properly managed, liquid at all times with no fraudulent background, safe & secure
not sure there is an exchange yet that meets all those or at least all those consistently - as you will learn bitcoin is "raw" and it will take time for some secondary aspects (eg exchanges) to mature.
before you "invest' learn about
what happened in mt gox (the willy bot and karpeles management),
the okcoin/ver saga ( in particular how they claimed there were not even a company),
exchanges that appear to allow staff to trade,
the effect a relatively small number of coins (bought or sold) can move the market in one exchange alot as most of the millions mined are not in "play"
you might also want to keep an eye out for exchanges that open up inside traditional regulatory controls eg COIN? ( although that is I think only for US citizens only).
in short be prepared for a wild ride
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@OP fishiness doesn't stop at just the crap going on today. BFX has had a history of fishiness. All the non-bitcoinica stuff was developed by a user named " myself"? those features alone are what made BFX as big as it is today, otherwise ppl would never have flocked there. Guess what? the guy got the boot after BFX felt there was no need for him. Had they been smart and kept him on, you wouldn't see the lag you see on their site today. Don't panic about BFX. Run. well if your exchange does not have technical problems then you cant have technical glitches that forces you to stop trading during margin calls cascades and stop withdrawals. that is why bitfinex is working real hard on their technical problems. its proven that bitfinex owners/employees trade on their own platform. why is it so hard to fathom that bitfinex is crashing the market to fulfill their own buy orders? someone in bitfinex needs money, and now they got your cheap coins. the technical side just plays into the scam. i dont trade on bitfinex.. i'm just saying that if you dont have technical problems then you wont have technical glitches.. bitfinex is working very hard on their technical glitches that is causing them to stop trading and halt withdrawals. that is all i really know about the situation over there. everything i read makes me think they might collapse. i dont really know though. CTO said yesterday they have still no clue how to fix the problem. Therefor it will not get better anytime soon. Good luck staying there and praying to not lose money in the next volatile phase.. everything is different with bitcoin. i do not think for one moment the people asking should they stay with bitfinex would stay with their bank if it was so dodgy or just plain inept nor stay with their plumber or local fast food outlet. Its proven to have problems and is not overcoming them so leave. Would you let your plumber block your toilet and then say he cannot come back as he has more important jobs to do........... |
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Every time at come back to my desk BTC price is lower! Not sure if its worse seeing the stock market crashing or Bitcoin  But I'm ever optimistic when it comes to btc. Hasn't been so long ago, I can still remember the magic and the awesomeness of bitcoin and the excitement. We need to find the magic again! (making money) ok, trying not to get discouraged here lol, but I have faith it will come back and be strong again... one day  Aside from the current issues (core/xt etc) a below $200 price will be really telling. I remember when it was $300 and above lots of posters said if it ever went below $200 they would buy huge amounts of coins as it was so so cheap - and if it went to $100 they would by many times more the number they bought at $200. so if it goes below $200 and is there for a few days it will show that there is no real money to back up the bravado. (It may rise of course masked by the manipulators that took it up when it went to $166 so it may be diffcult to tell 'who" has shelled out for coins). Time will tell.................... |
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We are going down from 280$ to 220$ in less than 10 days because two shills want to prove their might by forking bitcoin?
The answer from community is clear now, Gavin & Mike ?
I think Gavin & Mike are quite content seeing that the uptake of XT among nodes passed 13% in just 4 days, and that two blocks have already been mined with it. That's a clear answer from the community so far. I think these two points of view sum up the gap between the viewpoints nicely. Comment 1 is talking about store of value ie they may or may not actually prefer core over xt but certainly do not like it when the prospect of moving to one option lowers their wealth. Comment 2 is saying that the community will decide and the resulting effect longer term on the price is a "cost" that has to be borne as the community decides things not wealth movements. While comment 2 is "purer' in bitcoin terms than comment 1, comment 1 reflects more where bitcoin has got to after 6? years ie that changes cannot be now seen in isolation. For example I would say this core/xt argument is not only hurting the price but will lead to no new merchant acceptance. I am not sure these two viewpoints are easily reconciled and will rise much more frequently from now on in all things to do with bitcoin |
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I feel if anything the XT will crush the value to maybe $100?
I only say this because the time adaption of the XT and people understanding what the heck XT is about and wondering why their bitcoin isnt moving as fast anymore.
Or noticing the delayed time it takes since the bitcoin being split..
If we break the previous low, I expect less than 100. Existential scare 1.0 took us down 16-fold to 2; this one could easily take us down to 70, maybe less. This scenario should have been considered by everyone after the bubble, but alas they wouldn't even let themselves consider sub 400. was this the period june- nov 2011 when it went from $31 to $2? this was before I knew anything about bitcoin. I take it from your comments that the issue was seen as "serious' to the wellbeing of bitcoin (and the price) as the current core/xt issue. |
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