With the silver price making a low of $28.22 per Oz = $0.87774 per gram last Thursday & Litecoin making a high of $0.8247 yesterday we are getting very close, so a small rules change, once the price of litecoins goes over $0.85 or if silver falls below $27.50 per Oz = $0.85535 approx per gram then entries on the 1 LTC = 1 gm Ag part of the competition are closed. Then whomever picked today is the winner. On BTC-e at exchange time 06:30 LTC reached a high of $0.8694. https://btc-e.com/exchange/ltc_usd |
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BOTDICE updated to v0.55a - fixed max and min bet limits
- fixed round number to start from 1
- added multiplication progression adjustments (making Martingale possible)
- added script benchmark It's a great app.
What settings do you use for best results?
Thanks, I hope you like it now even more  . Discussing the settings you can spend half of you life... but generally, I have an impression that settings increasing the bets towards the end of session rather than adjusting them down yield more. Someone proficient in math could chime in to evaluate whether that can combat the negative estimated value somewhat in a limited session. Also, I prefer catching winning streaks by increasing bets on a 50%+ odds game type, but I'm not sure to what extent this affects the total profit with what limitations. Naturally, with the house edge and fees taken into account, you'll fare best with the smallest number of bets and largest stakes. But it's rather interesting to run tests without house edge and fees. Yes, the changes are great. |
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Maybe it's just me, but has anyone noticed this:
A new currency will launch on April, 1 2013.
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I know how Martingale progression works. I do not find it superior to progression systems with static increase and decrease. Currently Botdice allows much wider customization of bets than doubling up on loss. Buy don't worry, the basic progression scheme of multiplying your previous bet will be added soon as well, so you can compare yourself how massive losses you'll get on average of 100.000 bets or even a single run of 1000 bets.
It's a great app. What settings do you use for best results? added And apologies for me not getting it. Day off, I was in a different mind. |
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What is the purpose of subtracting after a loss?
Anything. The negative figure in the default setup is there to have readily an example of substraction. Personally I have found the reverse progression work nicely on some game types and settings, because it catches winning streaks and decreases losses on losing streaks. I see. But you can't predict wins or losses. Wins are safe zones. With memtingale a loss means the next bet is 2.n times greater than the first lost bet. This is to recoup more than the first loss times the win multiplier if you assume the loss was a win. Here's the output sample from Not@Las' pure martingale bot (copied from here - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80245.0) The bets are increased 2x during a losing round then reset to the original 0.01 bet after the first win after a loss. memtingale's system is Martingale but instead of a 2x multiplier you use a 2.n x multiplier to increase payout for a win. Mem's sim follows the same rules as the bot. Game #1
Balance: 11.37567619 Bet: 0.01 Fee: 0.0005 Total Fees: 0.0005
Balance: 11.36517619 Waiting...
Balance: 11.36521708 Lose!
Game #2
Balance: 11.36521708 Bet: 0.02 Fee: 0.0005 Total Fees: 0.001
Balance: 11.34471708 Waiting.........
Balance: 11.34479886 Lose!
Game #3
Balance: 11.34479886 Bet: 0.04 Fee: 0.0005 Total Fees: 0.0015
Balance: 11.30429886 Waiting...
Balance: 11.38554886 Win! (1 out of 3)
Game #4
Balance: 11.38554886 Bet: 0.01 Fee: 0.0005 Total Fees: 0.002
Balance: 11.37504886 Waiting.....
Balance: 11.37508975 Lose!
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I am unable to reproduce the first series given your settings. Are you sure you didn't use max bet 0.01 or such (not every setting is displayed in the result page)?
Could you point out the error in the second sequence you quoted?
I change the loss setting to positive. Neg/subtracting from the previous bet after a loss is not how I play the system. I've never seen that system before. Seems to me subtracting causes you to put funds at risk with the goal of getting a smaller return so then when a win is reached the payoff does not cover the total of all the previous losses. What is the purpose of subtracting after a loss? example. (I just picked numbers to increase that were about 2.5x+ greater than the previous loss. I add .006 on wins in this example for no reason.) bet amt w/l 1 .01 w 2 .016 w 3 .022 l 4 .05 l 5 .13 l 6 .3 l 7 .8 w 8 .01 w 9 .016 l 10 .04 w 11 .01 w etc... |
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Greatness you used 65536 numbers for the random number. I was going to add that to mem's.
It seems like the variable(s) for the bets is getting overwritten/reset in a conditional in the loop.
21:47:00
Max rounds to play: 100
Initial bankroll (cash): 10
Target cash: cash +50%
Game type: 32768
Win multiplier: 1.957
Start bet: 0.01
Adjustment after win: 0.0
Adjustment after loss: 0.022
# lucky number bet win Profit
0 64906 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0104950
1 59444 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0209900
2 8514 0.010 0.0190700 -0.0119200
3 5710 0.010 0.0190700 -0.0028500
4 65254 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0133450
5 50497 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0238400
6 23879 0.010 0.0190700 -0.0147700
7 8256 0.010 0.0190700 -0.0057000
8 21565 0.010 0.0190700 0.0033700
9 12388 0.010 0.0190700 0.0124400
10 35310 0.010 -0.0104950 0.0019450
11 43254 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0085500
12 57363 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0190450
13 43450 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0295400
14 15149 0.010 0.0190700 -0.0204700
15 64072 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0309650
16 43447 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0414600
17 34175 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0519550
18 51739 0.010 -0.0104950 -0.0624500
--------------------------------------
21:49:03
Max rounds to play: 100
Initial bankroll (cash): 10
Target cash: cash +50%
Game type: 32768
Win multiplier: 1.957
Start bet: 0.01
Adjustment after win: 0.006
Adjustment after loss: 0.028
# lucky number bet win Profit
0 31475 0.010 0.0190700 0.0090700
1 37085 0.016 -0.0164920 -0.0074220
2 26712 0.044 0.0856080 0.0341860
3 48105 0.050 -0.0504750 -0.0162890
4 52380 0.078 -0.0784610 -0.0947500
5 2522 0.106 0.2069420 0.0061920
6 58901 0.112 -0.1124440 -0.1062520
7 9724 0.140 0.2734800 0.0272280
8 9565 0.146 0.2852220 0.1664500
9 49525 0.152 -0.1524240 0.0140260
10 60013 0.180 -0.1804100 -0.1663840
11 57090 0.208 -0.2083960 -0.3747800
12 57804 0.236 -0.2363820 -0.6111620
13 46878 0.264 -0.2643680 -0.8755300
14 56916 0.292 -0.2923540 -1.1678840
15 28316 0.320 0.6257400 -0.8621440
16 24838 0.326 0.6374820 -0.5506620
17 30130 0.332 0.6492240 -0.2334380
18 4186 0.338 0.6609660 0.0895280
19 2321 0.344 0.6727080 0.4182360
20 49428 0.350 -0.3503250 0.0679110
21 38101 0.378 -0.3783110 -0.3104000
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Cool idea but I'm pretty sure the bets are not working correctly or I'm not understanding how to input correctly.
ex. I do a run
bet 1 loss bet .01
bet 2 win bet .01
Maybe it's just me but the second bet should have been at least .02.
It's like the bets for win/loss is placed after the win/loss is determined, because I then will have a string of losses where my bet increases, or same on wins.
added
I'm pretty sure that instead of resets based on number of bets it needs to be conditional on win after loss. Then max increase amount is based on balance of bank or amount of bank at risk for the game.
The increase during wins is a nice feature, but at times when there is a loss the bet decreases on the first loss???
added
bet progression issue.
# lucky number bet win Profit
0 21280 0.010 0.0190700 0.0090700
1 47454 0.020 -0.0204900 -0.0114200
2 63734 0.040 -0.0404800 -0.0519000
3 62849 0.060 -0.0604700 -0.1123700
4 19732 0.080 0.1560600 -0.0363100
5 21103 0.090 0.1756300 0.0493200
6 00138 0.100 0.1952000 0.1445200
7 48626 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1340250
8 32777 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1235300
9 44185 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1130350
10 64938 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1025400
11 57191 0.010 -0.0104950 0.0920450
12 55645 0.010 -0.0104950 0.0815500
13 57211 0.010 -0.0104950 0.0710550
14 18680 0.010 0.0190700 0.0801250
15 47337 0.020 -0.0204900 0.0596350
16 44899 0.040 -0.0404800 0.0191550
17 52247 0.060 -0.0604700 -0.0413150
18 60597 0.080 -0.0804600 -0.1217750
19 12904 0.100 0.1952000 -0.0265750
20 11133 0.110 0.2147700 0.0781950
21 19271 0.120 0.2343400 0.1925350
22 36121 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1820400
23 34679 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1715450
24 48329 0.010 -0.0104950 0.1610500
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For 5850 card, around 300-340 MH/s is good.
If you get 5870, you are going to get something about 370-400 MH/s.
Also, I would not recommend you to crossfire two different cards. Buy another 5850 and put it crossfire with your existing (or buy two 5870).
I'm pretty sure for mining you don't use crossfire at all. There's no frame to split in two and render separately on each card, so you lose performance. You want each card doing its own work to get max performance from each card. |
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My bad wrong digi-coin charts. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparisonStill going to be about the same times 1000. LTC mines in kh/s due to the scrypt algo. Per your question, likely factors, make of card, type of cooling, and who knows how long they ran the card at the stated clocks. |
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Yeah I saw the warning and I ignored it cause I roll that way. Warning: this topic has not been posted in for at least 120 days.
Unless you're sure you want to reply, please consider starting a new topic. mem thanks for the sim. It helped me change my perspective on gambling at SD. Now instead of betting for the wins I bet small to find the losses and then hopefully have the room to memingdale my bets till I find all the consecutive losses and get a win. you mean like bet 0.01 to catch a run of 5-6 losses, and then start betting big to increase your chances of winning? that is fucking retarded Yeap. I was doing martingale but starting too high. Now I do a smaller start and increase by over 2, so when I find the next win I win more than what my first small win would have been if it was not a loss. And good thing you've found a use for your lack of talent. Holy shit, you are actually serious. Although it may appear comforting, your strategy makes no sense. Please don't think I am trolling you, I really am somewhat concerned that you actually believe this. See this for a start: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_propertyIf you have any questions or would like me to convince you further, please ask. I would be happy to elaborate in as much detail as needed. Perhaps someone else can chime in too. This is gambler's fallacy 101. It's called GAMBLING! Yes I'm full well aware that I am just as likely to lose enough bets in a row so that I no longer have the funds from which to double my bet. It was playing with the sim that showed me I was not taking into account enough iterations. Again, It's called GAMBLING! Plus it's exciting. I've increased my starting amount 4x, and who knows I may lose all of it when SD is back up. Oh yeah. It's called GAMBLING! |
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Looks like SD is still down, but I finally got my return from SD 05:42GMT bet sent at 23:16GMT so this is a banner day. I guess it either snuck out of SD or sat in p2p limbo bouncing from node to node?
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So it's not just my client as usual that is not receiving wins/losses.
I do have to say the BTC network is doggy at best on a good day. I have transactions that will take hours to get confirmed and the transaction details are in blockchain.info. Ive had some take over 24 hours, and others take many hours to get returned or get a confirmation. Seems pretty ridiculous if this is supposed to be a global net based commodity that confirmations take hours even when the tx fee is included.
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Yeah I saw the warning and I ignored it cause I roll that way. Warning: this topic has not been posted in for at least 120 days.
Unless you're sure you want to reply, please consider starting a new topic. mem thanks for the sim. It helped me change my perspective on gambling at SD. Now instead of betting for the wins I bet small to find the losses and then hopefully have the room to memingdale my bets till I find all the consecutive losses and get a win. you mean like bet 0.01 to catch a run of 5-6 losses, and then start betting big to increase your chances of winning? that is fucking retarded Yeap. I was doing martingale but starting too high. Now I do a smaller start and increase by over 2, so when I find the next win I win more than what my first small win would have been if it was not a loss. And good thing you've found a use for your lack of talent. |
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Yeah I saw the warning and I ignored it cause I roll that way. Warning: this topic has not been posted in for at least 120 days.
Unless you're sure you want to reply, please consider starting a new topic. mem thanks for the sim. It helped me change my perspective on gambling at SD. Now instead of betting for the wins I bet small to find the losses and then hopefully have the room to memingdale my bets till I find all the consecutive losses and get a win. |
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Q1
2013 05 04
Q2
2014 02 20
ADDED
LhHkJ3twj66VgehZLbZKHX4BNrPSgGTstY
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Guys what's the next big thing? I know it's still bitcoin but are you guys playing any other fields?
There is a lot of upside to Litecoin. It will likely never be as big as BTC, but it has it's advantages. |
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I introduced a close friend of mine to bitcoin in august of 2010. He followed up with me just an hour ago. Now I think I am the fool for not hoarding a massive amount of coins.
.
On Sat, Mar 23, 2013 at 10:23 PM, Tom ........ <t.......@b........> wrote:
Yes, I hung on to this email.
Chalk it up as my unbelievably largest miss EVER!
Ugh.
On Sat, Aug 21, 2010 at 5:52 PM, Tom xxxxx <txxxxxx@b.......> wrote:
> Let me think on it. I have heartburn over pay pal.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: tim s.... [mailto:t..@t.....]
> Sent: Saturday, August 21, 2010 5:24 PM
> To: t.....@b.......
> Subject: bitcoins
>
> Tom,
>
> You may think I'm cuckoo for cocoa puffs, but I have an investment
> idea for you. Spend $5 - $20 on bitcoins. Go to mtgox.com, deposit
> $5-$20 via paypal and buy as many bitcoins as you can. Right now they
> are about 6.5cents each. I think these things can be worth $100 a
> piece in a couple years. $5 will get you 77 bitcoins.
>
> If you do so, you'll also want to download the bitcoin software and
> hold onto these coins with your own wallet.
>
> Bitcoins might be the currency of the internet. People will be able to
> buy porn, drugs & gamble on the internet with these things -
> anonymously. It's open source, and I don't think any 1 govt can stop
> them. Only 21 million bitcoins will ever be created, and there is only
> 3.8M in existence now.
>
> I bought 3,000 of them. They were 2 cents about a month ago. Its a
> high risk/high reward, but I know you love the penny stocks, here is a
> much more liquid investment opportunity.
I'm kind of hurt you did not send me that email. |
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