I was into gold in the late 90s.

At the time the goldbugs forum was kitco (before the site was changed), and it was similar in some ways to this place except that it was essentially one long board rather than a subdivided forum. It was also the exact opposite in terms of sentiment: mostly unending despair rather than the euphoria found here.

I went there (and PMs in general) some time after Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech – which didn’t stop the mad stock market and wasn’t followed by real dampening action. Mainly bugs just couldn't believe that the money printing and stock market froth could possibly continue (what's changed?), and so they bought the gold that everyone else was selling and laughing at. The mood at the time was that PMs were dead, apart from their small industrial use, and that you’d be mad to hold such an out of date asset in the modern world of omnipotent Central Banks. Not only didn’t you get interest, you actually had to pay people to store it, and heaven help you if you wanted to move it around. We bugs ate crow for years.

All the clever people were dis-investing. You couldn’t give silver away, and even on kitco it was commonly called “sludge”. I wasn’t especially clever, but I figured a storm was coming and I liked that an ounce of gold bought a loaf of bread a day for year in Roman times, and in 98 it still did.

The feeling at the time was because a rising gold price had always been seen as a signal that something was amiss in fiat land, the Central Banks would manipulate the hell out of it to keep it low and the investors calm. The feeling was also that this was largely accomplished by the gold carry trade: lend to the bullion banks at around a quarter percent (thus also showing that you were clever enough to raise a return on the barbarous relic) who would then sell to buy US treasuries at 4 percent. BBs got free money and the CBs got a lower gold price and apparent approval from the markets. As for the unwinding, well, we’ll see how Germany does in the next few years

Gordon Brown just followed conventional wisdom – why hold a non-performing, declining asset when you could swap for USD and get your interest. The Chinese, Russians, Germans and a few kitco tinfoil hatters bought.


edit: to remove excessive detail

"2x" ?  -  thought you prided yourself on logarithmic analysis? Lost your tables?

Thank you.

...just be careful that you're not so first that you're alone

Up till now fair numbers of bitcoiners might not have had a lot of money, so when they get some free from these background mined magical internets, they look to use them as they would other money – to get pizza and computers. Hey, that’s what money is, so it’s cool, but what’s the fuss right? Why would they be more useful than having real dollar or yuan?

However, there are other users on the horizon. People who have significant amounts of money and whose needs are different. They like to hold and control value without the say-so of banks or governments. They like to able to move significant chunks when they want to, to where they want. They love arriving at a different continent with as much money as they need encrypted in the cloud.

These people are currently giving early adopters shiney cars for their coins. Last year it was awesome gaming rigs with flashing lights, next year it’ll be houses. They thank the early adopters for refining protocols, for demonstrating the possibility of exchange via smartphones. They leave you their trinkets, and you think you’ve done well.

It’s giving away Manhattan all over again.

Thanks for the pointer to that thread, and thanks in general for your solid work. Glad you're stronger again.

Don't forget that if we spend significant time significantly above your trendline...

...you should re-draw your trendline

Can you hear them? Just over there? Shouting "Nurse!"?

It's important, now, we know. But when they let you wake up, it'll be so sunny, so peaceful...

Don't suppose there's anyone else here from the old kitco forum of the late 90s?

Namaste

Very good!
(Tho implying we actually need a lot more, or maybe a swap file with our fiat?)

No. They dumped high at the w/e with a view to buying low, but the price either didn't go low enough (it never hit the presumed target just above the previous ath) or just went up again too quickly, to allow them to buy back.

Looks like someone didn't cover their weekend shorts. Cheaper to crash Gox.

The bubble is dead, long live the bubble!

If those are the two skanks we've woken up next to, we'd better have a good scrub in the shower before we let the door slam behind us...

1. No doubt, but not to most 'retail' users. People are happy to use cash for anonymity (the >10k KYC problems don't affect them) and indeed don't seem too bothered by the credit card 3%. The biggest retailers pay less than that and consumers can get 1% cashback without too much effort, so they're paying 1% for convenience and guarantees (and insurance sometimes) - a deal many take.

2. It's effort vs reward. That's the point: Esperanto isn't worth the effort and I'm wondering if Bitcoin is for a critical mass.

3. The world has the USD  for an "inelegant" lingua franca

Bitcoin is Esperanto...


...created by idealists to solve problems they saw in existing languages. Theoretically, it did solve many of those problems and by self-chosen criteria was indeed a very superior language.

Trouble is, the vast majority of people weren't that dissatisfied by the language they spoke everyday. It did the job and was good enough. Sure, it would need translating to work with someone on the other side of the world, but hey, people can live with that every now and then.

Esperanto has a beautifully engineered future - and has had for 100 years - but other than a few enthusiasts, who cares?

You don't need to manipulate the market to take the kid's money, you just need to manipulate him.

If he's even asking these questions with a straight face he clearly won't be able to take the decisions or form the strategy to trade successfully.

Hey fella, whatever, its your money.

I think you're trolling. But, if you're straight you should just stop now and watch from the sidelines for a month or two. Either that or lose the lot and call it an education. Honestly, you'll get raped.

...and in the same item, quoting the newspaper is not to show that the block was created "before that date", but the exact opposite: to show that it was not created before that date. Duh. (i.e. no pre-mining happened)