at 0.0015 i said it might go there if the weekly divergence plays out fully. Its on a weekly time scale, so it still has time to play out. BTW, i called it when the market was around 0.005, still almost 50% up from here, despite the huge bounce we've seen.

but i did also say 0.0025 was a decent level to buy (support from Jan-Feb , and also July), and that to go to 0.0015 we would need some help of BTC (= BTC going up more)

if BTC rises to 1000$+, FCTBTC could go down hard again. However, i doubt now we will see sub 2 usd price in a big big while (unless there is a big black swan / project failure)

I also wrote that the latest leg of the downtrend (when we broke 0.0033 to trade below 0.0025 in the panic) wasn't a specific FCT move, but part of the bigger picture with all alts hit and leveraged margin traders forced out.

Now thats behind us, FCT is in stronger hands, the strong support levels has been seen. Short term the way is up. However, to reverse the weekly trend, and going back to ATH, we will need more news than just M2, (or else a global Alt rally where all boats are lifted)

A lot of perma-bulls here. What you lack buddies, is a flexible mind. Anyone not being a perma-bull is stamped a FUD-der or a troll.

So at last we have this long awaited M2 bounce.

FCT today's best performer up +18% as I write (more than 30% at one stage). Earlier intraday high at 0.00396 is more than 50% above the low hit during the panic.
It is safe now to say we have seen the worst. Even if it didn't hold, 0.00396 was well through the 0.0037 pre-flash crash level. This level could still act as a short term resistance but has much less significance now.

What cannot go down must go up, so FCT will probably go up from here. After all, 2 USD and below was really too cheap. Given the speed of the bounce , around 0.00335-0.0034 is a good zone to buy (right now 0.00342 so ok to FOMO if impatient), on the upside after the 0.0037 i see 0.0041-0.00425 the resistance levels, thats the weekly MA10, and still on a downtrend on this weekly chart. I think we will see these levels rather quickly with the current momentum. From there, i'm a bit more neutral.

https://dwq4do82y8xi7.cloudfront.net/x/jD9OX7TL/


Those who say i'm a troll are idiots, and not reading my posts.
yes i missed this move from 0.003 to 0.0034
but if you read everything i wrote, i'm still out from 0.005 and now the bottom is in , its safe to buy , in between i gave specific recommendations to buy, including the last one from 0.0025 to 0.003

Trading is not about buying at the bottom and selling at the top. I prefer to buy at a slightly higher price and not stress when the price is in a downtrend....If something is cheap but in a downtrend, i use buy the dip strategy and slowly accumulate.

However one would be an idiot to think its a one-way bet, and a sure bet, and mortgage his house. Those who were on margin during the downtrend are out of the market, with no money and only their eyes to cry.

As for investing, i've disclosed I'm long the A-shares, of course i hope 1billion market cap stock one day, even better if its 5bn or 10bn. However I'm not putting all my eggs in the same basket, FCT is not my only investment, and in volatile times, if i have a losing streak (which i did, not on FCT), i prefer to reduce temporarily positions to increase them again when it gets better. Don't double when you're in trouble. Thats how you get REKT.

Still think there are much better tech than FCT available. Tech is not the reason why i invested in FCT. Its because its a business, because A-shares are a different proposition. Because Factom have salesmen. Because there is a potential market where they have a first mover advantage. So its a kind of unique play in the space, and if its unique, you must own it, if only as a diversification play. I see shares as a leveraged play on FCT token value (because they get consumed, and produced again, but sold by Factom, so there is a multiplier effect here), and an option on IPO stock bubble where you can see x50 or x100 multipliers sometimes....

Also when a company reaches critical size, you have mergers etc... it can make the company grow bigger, there is also the option that a big player buys out the smaller one at a (huge) premium.

Thats why shares is different play than the tokens.

We had this bear market in Alts, and now they're bouncing together, its correlated, and thought the timing is little asynchronous, there is less extra diversifaction with the tokens.

 
why invest in FCT ? i don't have infinite amount of money to invest alas. I've got enough exposure to Factom with those shares.

@willowfoot has found the link , don't know if NEM lost one main dev or not like Ivan says, maybe its true.
but they seem to have a few good person in their team. You can see for yourself the screenshots that Apostille seems to be no BS

We've been waiting for months for screenshots (and more) of M2, and out of the blue we have a new blockchain app delivering what Factom have been saying they would deliver for months.
I don't know how you keep your cool... TBH yes, i'm disappointed with Factom so far.

No i'm not FUDding to get cheaper. As a shareholder, i want my voice to be heard. We can see posts from Factom people here from time to time, but they would never answer my concerns.

Typically after the NEM announcement,  I would like to ask them:
- why is M2 taking so much time ?
- How many devs are working on it ?
- What do they think of NEM Apostille ? How does Factom compare to that, and can they explain why Factom is a better solution than NEM and other (existing or under dev) projects

If they could answer clearly and positively those questions, maybe i'll feel more confident to invest again.

Your ostrich policy will do you no good in investing nor in any other matter.

actually I agree with you on this one. no guarantee that PoS will work for ETH. It will be a big gamble for them to move to PoS.

I'm not sure but i think there are other blockchain with PoS (NXT ? for example?) but as they are too small to bother, they haven't been seriously attacked

FCT major selling point is that it is a BTC app, where BTC is -as of now- the most reliable public blockchain, and it has the flexibility to move to other blockchains.

The risk is that a new winning blockchain would emerge with built-in authentification apps.

if you want to quote it all, quote it entirely
"On the face, it appears to suffer from the same fatal flaws as Proof of Stake."
FCT and ETH (in Casper) both rely on PoS.

The big pro of Factom is its flexibility and to benefit from the security of BTC, ETH and other blockchain strengths (PoW for BTC)

Anyway this is not really a post about the merits of XEM. Its about saying that Factom has no exclusivity on developing blockchain apps for authentification of documents, and it took only a few months to a couple young Japanese guys to come out with that. And I'm sure there is plenty of other projects going elsewhere. Thats why it's worrying to me that Factom are so slow.

BTW you may not have heard of XEM, me little as well, but the market still sees it more seriously than Factom, its market cap is higher, and touched even 100M usd at some stage, now its in a heavy downtrend

while you guys are circle-jerking, and 90% of the posts here are just "when is M2 ?" like waiting for Godot...

I am actually providing background information, contrary to you.
Of course NEM is a very small blockchain with a unsignificant amount of users (but so is Factom at the moment), but they have been able to provide a working product in less time than Factom and with less resources. Shouldn't that all tell us something ?

the "hidden" assumption is that the FCT price would go vertical once M2 is announced. Well, the price is much lower than it has been and i see other heavily hit coins showing strong bounces like LSK, or even the very scammy STEEM !!
So thats certainly possible, although nowhere a certainty. Personally i think it will not change the current trend, but i may be wrong of that. The clear trend that I see is that the Factom offering is facing more and more competition and thats why the price is under pressure. One could say the same thing for example about ETH, which at the beginning of the year had an exclusivity about Smart Contracts, but many other big projects are emerging, thats why the ETH price is off its high and under pressure as well.

btw if you followed me here, when the price was at 0.0025 i said it would be good to play a bounce to 0.003 the previous support (the low from flash crash day was 0.00307). We just did that and that has acted as a resistance for a few days already. so i'm not only providing info, but useful levels to trade  (not the first time...). I hope some can profit of that too.

disclaimer: flat in FCT. and no, i don't intend to buy a dip (before 0.0015) nor to FOMO in it, UNLESS there is really a market changing news (and i don't consider M2 as being a market changing news).

I'd prefer to buy XEM if it reaches the support level of around 300 sats for example (now over 500 sats). No hurry to buy alts in a global bear market I believe.

look at this

https://blog.nem.io/apostille/

while Factom struggling with M2
competitors are making a lot of progress...

I haven't tried NEM/Apostille, and cannot comment on it. But it just shows you that there are other serious projects. This one looks serious, i saw some posts with people testing it.
NEM seems to have a lot of other modern unique technical features as well.

What is "strange" is that NEM claims that they had only 2 devs working on Apostille, and they delivered in a few months. Why is it taking so long for Factom ?
Looking at their GUI, or at some discussions, alas I think unfortunately the answer is: the technical skill level of all people working at Factom is not as high as other projects.

Also, the biggest enemy of Factom is time...
if they don't have contracts very very soon, I think they'll lose their first mover advantage.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/09/12/factom-will-use-bitcoin-ethereum-blockchain/
Ethereum is so much crap that "Factom Embraces Ethereum Blockchain"

This is not the right answer. @Mimir is giving a more correct answer.

However, the fact that we have a big company with needs that could/should be covered by Factom is NOT referring to it, gives you an idea of how poorly they are doing at the moment

very interesting analysis. it shows there is no easy free lunch in alts. I'd like to see a similar analysis for small cap stocks or startups. Probably the same kind of charts.

BTC has the first mover advantage and the survivor bias.

look at this news

https://www.bourse.lu/blockchain-press-release

"Ethereum is a decentralised platform that runs smart contracts: applications that run exactly as programmed without any possibility of downtime, censorship, fraud or third party interference. By introducing Etheruem’s blockchain technology into the certification process, LuxSE is providing a "digital signature" that will ensure authenticity and proof of existence of all documents filed in the OAM."

if we have this on Ethereum directly, what do we need Factom for, if I may ask

I kind of agree with you, if my English understanding of "leads" is correct, then the image amount i have in my mind would definitely be in the 1M-2M usd range.

 Now this amount has not been disclosed, and we are left to guess.

Tim Draper didn't invest last month. The closing for bnktothefuture was back in July. so its not really news.

What was publicly revealed last month was Tim Draper was among them. Does it really matter who buys ? the amount is more important and Factom / bnktothefuture were caught lying for months about it.

 btw, they didn't say how much he put. We don't know if he put 4M usd (highly improbable), 1M (possible but i don't think so)
, or only a few hundred kUSD (more likely)...

If Tim Draper revealed HOW MUCH he invested and its confirmed - say- that he participated in more than 50% of the offering, that would look more bullish perhaps... else its just headlines for the sake of headlines, and really nothing to care much about. the last news about some "big" famous i heard was Barry Silbert buying ETC, and if you look at ETC price, it would have been a good idea not to listen to this kind of news to make buy and hold decisions....

don't worry. Brian (or was it Paul ?) said he last bought FCT the day just before the (Tim Draper news) press release, and FCT was up 30% so i guess we will see more of the same before M2 news...

With BTC exploding higher again to new highs for the year, we can expect another very volatile (illiquid) weekend with stop-hunting activity where we could see a further spike in BTC and stop losses in anything not BTC , including FCT.
I think keeping margin longs (as opposed to cash longs) is a very bad idea as one can be forced out easily. It is an ideal setup to make the market trade at distressed prices like last weekend. The low from last weekend is 0.00227.

How low we would go depends more on liquidity than anything else. Charts are oversold. Some other alts have seen sporadic buys and well off their bottom (example LSK, AMP)... I think its momentum traders selling short anything not BTC on Polo trying to trigger stop losses (maybe Polo traders with inside information looking at the stop losses orders and trying to trigger cascade !!!). so i would expect a good bounce after such price action, but if the BTC rally is just beginning , maybe not so against FIAT (USD/EUR), but FCTBTC pair would still be headed further lower in the medium term, like other alts

Remember the ultimate chart objective from the weekly divergence is 0.0015... (and thats just a chart level, there's no magic dam there)

that is really an idiotic thing to do, and the surest way of getting REKT sooner rather than later

and some people sold him... there is no conclusion to make of it

if we are lucky, we might even get some at 0.0015 soon

suppose he announces it, probably you will feel reassured, but in the current environment, where ALL alts are going down / BTC is going up, do you think it's gonna change the trend for FACTOM beyond 24 hours perhaps ?

LedgerNano S