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61  Economy / Speculation / Re: what are the best charts on the web for bitcoin ? on: April 10, 2013, 10:09:56 AM
I also like Clarkmoody at http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/. You can see the order depth there and currently bitcoinity seems to be down.

Yes there was a notice it was being taken down for maintenance due to lagging. Dang, and it just hit 250! woohoo!!

I hope we get a belated picture/video for 250 when it is back up. Smiley
62  Economy / Speculation / Re: $236 - What BS - Selling OUT today! on: April 09, 2013, 09:14:36 PM
Have any millionaires publicly done this?  No, there are thousands of people putting 10s of thousands of $$ in this.  They are all newbies and not long term holders.

Unless I'm reading things wrong, there seemed to be 3 huge buys today on the exchange of ~$500K. If I am right, who do you attribute these to?


Don't believe everything you see on gox feed.  Explain the existence of walls...UFOs etc.   There are no $500K trades going on boy....those are either consolidated orders or you're pulling the number out of your ass.  No ONE trades 500K on gox in one fill....

No need to be snarky, I am genuinely interested to understand.

Why does the volume shoot through the roof for a very short period of time and suddenly the prices jumps up?

I see one instance at about 11AM GMT, 4PM GMT and the last at 6.30PM GMT. Check Bitcoinity - 12h graph.
63  Economy / Speculation / Re: $236 - What BS - Selling OUT today! on: April 09, 2013, 08:10:30 PM
Have any millionaires publicly done this?  No, there are thousands of people putting 10s of thousands of $$ in this.  They are all newbies and not long term holders.

Unless I'm reading things wrong, there seemed to be 3 huge buys today on the exchange of ~$500K. If I am right, who do you attribute these to?
64  Economy / Speculation / Re: $236 - What BS - Selling OUT today! on: April 09, 2013, 07:25:14 PM
People, congrats to all who are still holding... im letting my last block go today.  I think this is SO unhealthy for btc.  When this thing roles over its gonna drop dramatically.  It will burn so many newbies.  They will not want to come back.  

A gradual rise, with sensible ups and downs would build the base of users much better.  But THIS?!?!  This is just BS, bad news for adoption.  This will ultimately set us back.  

Any one who thinks its like a singularity or something are just caught up in the euphoria.  Nothing hits adoption like this.  Maybe i'll be proven wrong, but i doubt it.  These new buys understand very little about btc other than its going up fast and they can make quick money.  When it starts to drop they will understand no more about btc as a currency, only that it is dropping and looks like a bubble bursting.

Thoughts?  Did i do right selling out today?  Or will i get run over as this sucker goes straight to $1k.

--
Doob

I actually worry more about the businesses that might get burnt, rather than speculators who have recently entered the market. A crash could really hurt fledgling startups and scare off Angel/VC money from investing in those companies. That could set things back much further than burning the people looking to make a quick buck.
65  Economy / Speculation / Re: How long does it take for bitcoin value to double?? on: April 09, 2013, 05:04:01 PM
Because it's absurd. And with this run-up you would be silly to expect anything but a sharp, substantial and enduring drop.

Does anyone care to (re)post the historic trend graph for Berkshire Hathaway shares? Smiley

Please tell me you not trying to justify Bitcoin's growth by comparing it to company that specializes in long term investments in companies notably eschewing even the most successful technology stocks, never-mind currency experiments like Bitcoin.

Warren Buffet wouldn't touch Bitcoin with a barge pole.
66  Economy / Economics / Re: this is a bubble. on: April 09, 2013, 04:24:43 PM
I know it looks ridiculous(I feel seriously unsettling as well), but I doubt all those thrown down $1M-2M orders in the blink of an eye are that stupid.

Ever heard of the London Whale? Or all any of the long line of "stupid" traders I could wheel out that would have considered spending $1M-$2M on the markets in a blink of eye as buying sweets with pocket change.

I've been watching these forums for the last few months and it is clear that some of you are completely losing all sense of reality.
67  Economy / Economics / Re: CRASH?! (not) For all the 'nay sayers' on: April 09, 2013, 04:08:46 PM
There are several separate things going on here.

1. Mt Gox has a backlog in the thousands. That will drive new money in for a while. All the press attention and negative market news elsewhere helps significantly, and may continue to help for a long while to come.

I keep hearing this one but I think the backlog is what we in the start up industry call a "vanity metric". Sure it might be an indicator, but until people buy their coin, it doesn't guarantee anything.

When I got approved I didn't transfer a significant amount of FIAT straight away and watched the market closely before buying any coin. I started small and once I had some confidence, I made a bigger move. This was back in the days of $50 per coin and even then rapid rises scared the hell out of me. I wonder how I'd have felt about trying to buy in today given the exponential growth?
68  Economy / Speculation / Re: Poll: At what price does the rapid rise make you nervous/sell in the next month? on: April 09, 2013, 02:58:27 PM

History will be written like this: First there was the Internet which gave people the freedom to share knowledge, then Google organized the internet so others could quickly find it, then Facebook connected people on an daily basis within their entire social network and finally Bitcoin freed people financially from the rule of corrupt banksters!

Google was not the first search engine.

Facebook was not the first social network.

Never said they where, only said the internet was first. They are the ones history will remember. Just as Bitcoin was not the first virtual currency. But it will be the one that goes down in the annals of history.

If Bitcoin is the Facebook of crypto currency, then who was the Myspace or the Friendster?
69  Economy / Speculation / Re: Poll: At what price does the rapid rise make you nervous/sell in the next month? on: April 09, 2013, 02:46:18 PM

History will be written like this: First there was the Internet which gave people the freedom to share knowledge, then Google organized the internet so others could quickly find it, then Facebook connected people on an daily basis within their entire social network and finally Bitcoin freed people financially from the rule of corrupt banksters!

Google was not the first search engine.

Facebook was not the first social network.
70  Other / Archival / Re: I sold everything at $158/159 this morning on: April 07, 2013, 09:46:39 PM
Most of the guys posting here have under 10 posts. Just wanted to point that out.

Be careful not to stereotype all n00bs as being ignorant. I've personally been following Bitcoin closely since before 2011 and I have lurking in these forums for many moons. In return I won't stereotype all "established" posters as living inside a reality distortion field of their own making. Tongue
71  Other / Archival / Re: I sold everything at $158/159 this morning on: April 07, 2013, 05:51:04 PM
Oh yay! More bragging about selling out! These threads always end well.

However, I'm far from convinced that the stupid money is exhausted at this point. Could be a long way to go.

So, you're calling the fiat that people are exchanging for bitcoin "stupid money", yet it's what you accepted for yours (if you actually had any)? I agree,  Good jerb!  Smiley



We might not have even touched the stupid money to be fair. All I'm really saying that I simply don't know who is who at this point, myself included. Wink

I am fairly confident that speculation is out-stripping fundamentals when it comes to Bitcoin's perceived value at the moment though. That's not to say I don't think Bitcoin could one day be worth orders of magnitude more than it is today.

Now, what is really stupid is that I've been speculating with less than week's salary instead of building bitcoin-based services in my spare time. Wink
72  Other / Archival / Re: I sold everything at $158/159 this morning on: April 07, 2013, 05:30:59 PM
Bitcoin is not a bubble that will burst for the very simple reason that the demand will increase in the coming years.


There are new sites every day that accept bitcoins, including big ones. People living in of the 80+ countries that Paypal doesn't support can now turn to Bitcoins and pay with Bitcoins on sites like Wordpress. This increases demand as it gets more awareness.

The customers of tor sites like Silk Road and Black Market Reloaded is increasing monthly, thus increasing the demand.

People that send money to other continents (other currencies) have to pay a lot of taxes, costs and on top of that wait days if not weeks before the money reaches the other person. These people (mostly of our generation) will prefer to use bitcoins instead of their local country currency.

The first Bitcoin ATMs are coming out soon, maybe this year already.

You have to look at he bigger picture here. Bitcoins value will not drop significantly, it will just go up. Even if bitcoins would go below 80$ there would be so many people buying BTC (including me) that it will immediately drive the price up again.

Bitcoin is now at the beginning, in the 3 to 5 years I am confident the value will be close to at least 1000$ each. In the next 5 to 10 years it will go towards 5000$ each.

Do you really think that there isn't any way that Bitcoin can fail, in the short, medium or long term?

In my professional work I help advice start ups and even the ones that have a good product or service have a very high rate of failure. Less than 26% of Silicon Valley startups make it beyond a few years - and they are the ones that secured their first major investment round. We are still very much in the experimental phase and there are many many hurdles before we can say Bitcoin is here to stay.

The only thing I would bet on is that crypto currencies in some form are probably not going away - that is very exciting. Whether or not it is Bitcoin is another thing. First movers are rarely the winners. E.g. Facebook > Myspace > Friendster.

I actually expect to see a family of crypto currencies emerge in the next few years, all with unique properties that meet the various needs we have.
73  Other / Archival / Re: I sold everything at $158/159 this morning on: April 07, 2013, 04:46:41 PM
Looks like $159 was might have been pretty near the top of pump that has been playing out today. Called it right. Smiley

Wouldn't be surprised if there is another DoS attack on Gox.
74  Other / Archival / Re: I sold everything at $158/159 this morning on: April 07, 2013, 04:42:14 PM
To all of you panic buying because you missed the "greatest thing ever", mark this post, within 6 months you will be able to buy in much lower, I have a large buy order at $35 (just above the 2011 high).

if this were an established commodity like gold, copper, soybeans, or a currency cross, which I have been trading for 15 years, that is the smart buy point - not at $159

you just need to look at the naivete of the posts on this board to know this is a sucker rally.

"i'm loaning money to ....."
" I save $200 a month and im putting it all in bitcoins ...... "
"we are revolutionaries......."


good luck to all the future bitcoin millionaires :-)


I've just sold out today as well @$159, though purely to cover most of the cost of my original investment - still holding a very modest amount of coins. Only upside for me here on out and have a nice bit of fiat standing by for any serious correction.

However, I'm far from convinced that the stupid money is exhausted at this point. Could be a long way to go.
75  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Introduce yourself :) on: April 07, 2013, 04:37:31 PM
Long time lurker, just signed up so I can wade into some of these threads. Didn't realise there would be a restriction for n00bs! Alas.

I won't say to much, other than I have a very modest investment in some coins, love the idea of Bitcoin and think it is a very interesting experiment that we will all learn a lot from one way or another.
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