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601  Other / Off-topic / Re: Keeping your gambling habit a secret. on: January 17, 2024, 09:27:26 PM
Keeping your gambling habit secret is optional as it varies amongst gamblers. It all depends on the person gambling.
I agree with this opinion, there are reasons why most people prefer to gamble in secret. From experience, some of these reasons will suffice here;

First, when family and friends don't support gambling, the gambler will prefer to gamble in secret to avoid misunderstandings with family or friends.

In addition, most gamblers must have shown a negative attitude after losing a bet and then vowed never to gamble again. Since they are addicted, they prefer to gamble in secret not to make it open to friends he promised that he will not gamble again.

Furthermore, it is more convenient to gamble in secret, especially in sports betting. Someone can easily and conveniently place a bet at home instead of going to a shop.

The above reasons justify that keeping gambling a secret depends on the personal idiosyncrasies of the gambler. However, in my thinking, it is best to gamble in secret since it will be bad to exhibit obnoxious behavior in public after losing a bet and that will make people attribute any misfortune to you to gambling since they know you are a gambler but when people don't know they find it hard to relate gambling to any misfortune that may happen to the bettor.
602  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Making too many picks reduces chances of winning. on: January 17, 2024, 06:40:34 PM
A win is a win, doesnt matter on how many bets that you had set up on which it would really be always be determined on how good your picks are. It doesnt really mind much
about on how many games that you had bet on because if we do tend to count about your winning rate then it doesnt care much if you do stick about single betting games
or would be going into multiple.
I don't agree with this view. No doubt, gambling is a game of luck and so one can win at any time notwithstanding the number of picks involved but then experience shows that the more the picks, the more the risk involved, and then the possibility of winning is slim and verse versa.

For instance, a person who selected two picks in a ticket has a higher success rate than a person who has selected 15 picks in a ticket. This is because a person who has selected only two games will certainly select the best two picks for the day thereby minimizing the risk and expanding the possibility of winning.

Personal observation shows that gamblers who stake on only one game have an 85% success rate whereas gamblers who accumulate more games have a 35% winning rate.
603  Other / Meta / Re: The effect the mixer ban has had on the forum. on: January 17, 2024, 11:56:51 AM
Bitcointalk is an original forum of Bitcoin and a birthplace of many other top projects where legends themselves were actively posting and what is altcoinstalks? By the way, I want to say that Bitcointalk was probably the only forum with signature campaign, are there any other forums like this one? Campaigns pay high rate today because this is the OG forum and has the highest traffic with a good SEO profile.
You say that if the traffic on altcoinstalks increases, so will increase the payrate but how is that going to happen? How will traffic grow on altcoinstalks? Explain me this part.
It has already grown since the ban of Mixers on Bitcointalk, with some of the forum's reputable members and many more having already transferred their accounts there. FYI, traffic to Bitcointalk increased when the signature campaign launched in 2011. Nobody expected Altcointalk to reach the level of Bitcointalk, but it is now on the right path to compete



Quote
Let's wait and see how long will they be able to allow mixer advertisement on their forum. At the moment there is not a big traffic and nobody cares about their forum and when mixers will be banned, they will be forced to disallow its promotion.
Mixers are not illegal and from what I've read the altcointalk forum is not hosted on the U.S jurisdiction so it's safe to say the forum is on a safer space than Bitcointalk.
604  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you believe in gambling experts predictions? on: January 17, 2024, 10:23:08 AM
Speculation still speculation but for sure they have a lot of experience on those gambling categories they are doing so there's nothing wrong if we look after their prediction then make it as a guide what's important is to have critical thinking to know the real situation so we can decide on our own.
We need to pay attention to these questions, does experience matter in gambling specifically football betting? Is our concern about knowing if following expert prediction is wrong or not or about having a greater chance of winning? If after looking up an expert prediction we still fall back to our thinking what's the need for it in the first instance? Is the statistics or H2H records only accessible to experts?

Experience doesn't matter when making predictions about the outcome of a football result to be specific. If experience does then the old gamblers should have more winnings but then I can tell you that even a newbie can have a higher success rate than an old gambler or even an expert. In my understanding, what counts is luck and not experience. The guide that may be provided by an expert might even be a reason for losing a bet.

Even though it is not wrong to follow an expert prediction but a high winning rate is not guaranteed which is what matters. So, relying on an expert prediction is not the best. Look up stats as a guide since everyone can have access to stats not only the experts. That should serve as a better guide. With that, you can easily know rivals and avoid such games if possible or you can know the possible and near-perfect option to select.
605  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you believe in gambling experts predictions? on: January 17, 2024, 09:27:58 AM
So, it is always good to make predictions of our own.

The unpredicted nature of gambling makes me even doubt the possibility of having an expert. The person who parades himself as an expert is, maybe good at analysis games but then does the analysis determine the outcome? Most times, no. An expert is as good as you and sometimes you are even better just by following your instinct.

I remember when I saw a prediction on a website but I doubted the possibility of the outcome of what was predicted not minding the analysis given by the expert but decided to follow my instinct. Luckily, I won and what was predicted by the expert failed. What this means is that expert prediction is not always accurate and experience shows that when you depend on expert prediction you tend to lose more.

The reason is that most expert predictions are not free even though it's not 100% safe and then after paying for the picks, the bettor must stake the game and sometimes with a very high stake considering the assurance that was given. After all these efforts, the game doesn't play and bettor ends up losing more than expected.

In summary, I agree that it is always good to make our predictions because there won't be a blame game at the end and the money that would have been used to pay for picks can be utilized into another venture or even saved.
606  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Higher and lower risks in gambling is the gamblers choice. on: January 17, 2024, 08:25:25 AM
Gambling is a game of uncertainty and the probability of losing is always higher than the probability of winning irrespective of the odds, small or big. Odds do not determine who wins and who doesn't but then gamblers have always held this perspective that betting on smaller odds is the safest way to win in gambling specifically in sports betting.

However, if betting on smaller odds guarantees more wins people will only stick to betting on games with smaller odds and this can chase bookies but then bookies are even proliferating which means statistically the bookies are winning in the tussle. It hits harder when a person loses on small odds because placing a bet on smaller odds means staking with a reasonable sum of money to get value and when the outcome is not positive, it can easily drive the bettor into some form of negative behavior.

Thus, I will always advocate that people should stake only with money they can comfortably lose without having to worry irrespective of the odds. This is important since odds do not guarantee who wins the game hence, the onus is on the gambler to control his stake each time he gambles.

607  Other / Meta / Re: The effect the mixer ban has had on the forum. on: January 16, 2024, 02:45:11 PM
I agree with Poker Player it's just a matter of time.

I have to qualify this. I'm not saying it's a matter of time, but it could happen over time and especially if more restrictions are imposed. Let's imagine that casino campaigns are banned, for example. What would happen? I think that we could see a clear transfer of members and traffic to the other forum.
Matter of time can also be applied in many contexts. If casinos are banned, accounts made after 2012 will be gone; in fact, 80% of user activities will be substantially reduced, and Altcointalk will become the new Bitcointalk.

If altcoinstalks want to make people move from bitcointalk to their website, they have to invest money into signature campaigns and make them artificially pay higher than others pay on Bitcointalk for a long period of time because they don't have traffic and can't gain a competitive advantage in traffic by simply offering $45 campaigns.
Dude did you read what I posted earlier? Bitcointalk was paying $1.3/month in 2011. If the traffic on Altcointalk increases the payrate will also increase.

Nothing can takeaway over 14 years of history of this forum.
The history will remain here, but the majority of people will go to the highest paid forum, leaving here as a historical archive. One more drastic action from theymos and this place is toosed.
608  Other / Meta / Re: I heard that this forum used to have advertisements on: January 16, 2024, 10:22:08 AM
It was an excellent decision because it resulted in more signature campaigns since it was the only way to advertise here.
The ads was stop in July 2022, at that time there were only 22 campaigns.

Right now, even the ads was disabled and theymos forbidding to promote centralized mixer, but we currently have 26 campaigns, if we count mixers campaign maybe there are more than 30 active campaigns in the last year.

Which mean you're wrong, there's no correlation between ads and campaign, IIRC actually there are some project that prefer to promote through forum ads without run a signature campaign.
You did the calculations, saw the increase in numbers, and still said I was wrong; you're pretty bad at data analytics if you think that way. Since the close of the Forum ad campaign, there have been 4-10 more organized Sig campaigns, proving my point.
609  Other / Meta / Re: The effect the mixer ban has had on the forum. on: January 16, 2024, 10:02:12 AM
<snip>

As usual with you, you didn't even bother to read what I explained afterwards. I'll explain it to you in another way.

A month ago, the highest paying campaigns on this forum: $250 per week.

A month ago, the highest paying campaigns on this altscointalk: $0.

Now: the only campaign that pays the most in this forum: $150.

On altscoinstalk: $45.

A year from now: we'll see.

The purpose of this thread is to warn of what may happen if more restrictions on signatures are imposed, not simply to rejoice in looking at a still photo of what this forum looks like today.
On Bitcointalk lowest start, the major and first payment Sig campaign on Bitcointalk was paying $1.3 cent/month. You'd be lucky to get someone to give you $2-$10 back then, when traffic was similar to that of altcointalk.

Altcointalk lowest payment is $30 per week. Imagine what they'll pay if they ever reach the traffic levels of Bitcointalk. Not forgetting that Altcointalk Sig were paying much lower than the current payrate so we can literally say as the payrate on Bitcointalk dropped ( due to the ban),the payrate on Altcointalk increased. I agree with Poker Player it's just a matter of time.

610  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Premier League 2023/2024 Discussion Thread ⚽ on: January 16, 2024, 06:49:54 AM
I agree about Rashford. He is really performing poorly this season.  Sad  I don't know what happened to this guy in only one season to be honest. Last season he was incredible and Erik ten Hag was still the manager then. But now the manager is the same but Rashford isn't. He is a very crucial member of the team as we all know. When he performs badly the team are also in extra trouble.

I understand that Manchester United are having a poor season compared to the last one. But skilled individuals still should be able to do their best for the team. Rashford can't give any excuse for his poor effort throughout the season until now.
He spent most of last season as false 9 and with Anthony and Sancho running down the LW and RW, he didn't need to drop deep to receive passes like he has this season because there is literally no distribution coming from the wings as Anthony and Sancho both lost their places in the team this season and Casimero and Bruno, who are supposed to provide services from the midfield, are struggling with match fitness.

Poor teamwork was more responsible for his drop in form and early-season knocks too
611  Other / Meta / Re: I heard that this forum used to have advertisements on: January 16, 2024, 06:37:42 AM
<snip>

They were displayed in banner form. Go to https://www.altcoinstalks.com/ and see the banners there. That's like they used to be here.

When were those advertisements stopped and what were the advertisers paying the forum to display their advertisements over here?
I don't remember exactly, I think it was like a year or two ago but theymos decided to stop because the forum has so many bitcoins that it doesn't need the money coming in from advertising. Why are you so curious about ads?
It wasn't as big and flashy as it is on altcointalk; it was a little smaller in width and a little longer in length, with no animations or flashy graphics. Well, determining which services were legitimate was another reason the ad was halted, as some of the advertised projects turned out to be dubious over time, and finally, the ones with a dubious background were always the highest bidder, making it difficult for thymos for some bTC the forum didn't even need.

It was an excellent decision because it resulted in more signature campaigns since it was the only way to advertise here.
612  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 16, 2024, 06:22:40 AM
Everton and Nottingham Forest will reportedly face points deductions for violating the Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR) of the Premier League. I think this case is not the first time for Everton because last November they experienced almost the same thing and received a 10 point deduction. If they are proven to have violated this again, then they will definitely lose the points they have worked so hard to get so far.
If they are found guilty for the second time and given another potential 10 point deduction this late in the season, it will do them more harm than the early one they received in November. I'm amazed they broke so many rules, starting with overspending on their stadium reconstruction and now what FFP? I'm not shocked to see Nottingham Forest on the list. After all, this is a team that brought in nearly 25 new players last season, which was impossible to achieve without breaking the rules.

In any case, neither team will be missed. Everton fought and won the last two relegation battles, so maybe it's time to finally go to the championship. 10 points deduction each from both teams will see them occupy 20th and 19th on the table.
613  Other / Meta / Re: The effect the mixer ban has had on the forum. on: January 16, 2024, 05:56:21 AM
In relation of traffic and possible income through advertisements, 100% sure, the other one will increase. Theymos as a website admin knows much more than any of us in relation of traffic. That's it doesn't matter to him anymore he knows such thing already, it starts when he stopped sccepting the advertisements here.
And mixers promoting their service is none of his business after banning them here (which he thought about it carefully) so, i said it again it doesn't matter to him anymore.
It matters to him because if we're not here today, he'll have no choice but to close the forum and go on to other things. I'm sure he had no idea what the "after mixer ban" would do to the forum, and he certainly didn't expect altcointalk to swiftly rush in to take advantage. Most people, including myself, expected the mixes' promotion to transfer to the darknet, but that was not the case. I don't use altcointalk, but their activity appears to have jumped by more than 100% and is still increasing. Another one-sided action from theymos, and the forum is over.

Other forums always existed to offer something that is not available here, and that is not always bad... maybe we are going to have less spam here Wink
Maybe we're going to be stuck here with old topics and more bumps.
614  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin ETF Approval; Price dumps, what Next? on: January 16, 2024, 05:34:27 AM
It's been mentioned many times already but in general we need:

1. demand increase, more people get interested in bitcoin
2. supply decrease, therefore more difficult to find bitcoin

(2) is guarranteed to happen by the network rules
(1) is what we can focus on, introducing new people to bitcoin

There is no need to overcomplicate things, trying to read patterns, technical analysis etc.

Fundamentally speaking, (1) & (2) will lead to price increase.
Bitcoin ETF was expected to partially tackle the No. 1 problem by increasing adoption; the more demand, the higher the price increase. We've reached the point where no one needs to knock on the door of the next-door neighbor to introduce them to Bitcoin; we're meant to be at the point where people come to Bitcoin. As a community, I believe we are not raising enough awareness to solve the case of number 1.

the great thing about bitcoin..
price up = more profit for coins you have
price down = more discount to accumulate more coin
Price down= Panic sell. ( Buy high , Sell Low). My crappy rules.  Grin
615  Other / Meta / Re: Have the rules of the DT system and Forum rules amended ? ? theymos on: January 15, 2024, 08:32:55 AM
Centralize the system and let the admin moderate it. It's obvious we're not ready for Decentralization just yet.

The DT system was already centralized a few years ago, theymos acknowledged this in his post here:

For years I've been unhappy with how DefaultTrust ended up as a centralized and largely-untouchable authority...

Theymos can moderate the DT system even now. If you think someone is abusing the DT system, you can PM him. I don't know how he will react to such a message or if he will react at all, but you, as well as any other forum user, have this option.

Anyway, there are many conceivable ways to abuse the system, but if it happens, you can just shoot me a PM and I'll fix it, probably in less than 24 hours.
So we've been protesting to the wrong people and on the wrong board (reputation), while Theymos is only a few seconds away to edits/modifies in less than 24 hours. For a long time, this is how the DT should have been.

@mikeywith You wrote beautifully; I wish I had some Smerits, but I'll bookmark your post and return when I do. Excellent points.
616  Economy / Reputation / Re: Would you tag these users? on: January 14, 2024, 12:44:55 PM
Where do you check a live stats on DT whatnot related things? I'd love to get to know his peers.
You can send them a love letters here .
http://loyce.club/trust/2024-01-13_Sat_05.07h/1016855.html
617  Economy / Reputation / Re: Would you tag these users? on: January 14, 2024, 12:17:43 PM
Why bother voting when the system is already compromised? The powerful continue to become stronger, while the weak continue to weaken.
That's not true. Both Timelord2067 and Ratimov were (brutally) removed from DT lately. All you need is convincing evidence, and it helps if the victim isn't a shitposting spammer.
Ratimov has never abused the system in the way that JollyGood has. There are hundreds of threads here and there against JollyGood, and his judgement is awful, yet he keeps accumulating votes and growing stronger. If we're being honest, JollyGood isn't fit to be on the system. I'm glad my most recent instance provided him - 3 Votes.
618  Economy / Reputation / Re: Would you tag these users? on: January 14, 2024, 12:01:04 PM
If you agree that someone should be negatively tagged for AI posting or spamming, you don't deserve to be in the DT network.
What's the point of complaining instead of voting? See how the Trust system works, and create your own Trust list.
Why bother voting when the system is already compromised? The powerful continue to become stronger, while the weak continue to weaken. The system is unbalanced and must be scrapped. At this point, the only way out is to moderate the system.
619  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin ETF Approval; Price dumps, what Next? on: January 14, 2024, 11:53:14 AM
As the title suggests, we have all been waiting for this period for a long time, and it has finally here, yet the price of BTC remains low despite the high spot ETF Bitcoin trading volume. We were led to expect that the price would increase upon SEC approval, but the contrary is now happening.  What now?
Sell the news, that is what happened. nothing more, nothing less. All the people who wanted to buy bitcoin in order to speculate about the ETFs approval already did it months ago, for sure they weren't waiting for the actual approval, so there were way more people interested in selling rather than buying. In the long run the price will go up again, don't worry.
This is one of many occasions that the ETF has come close to being approved, but it never was. I assume so many people didn't believe this was going to work, and the market movement was very low because the Bitcoin community's faith was similarly low. I'm not one of those moonboys but yeah my hope was high on this one. We may start see rapid movement from the 4th quarter according to some analysis.
620  Other / Meta / Re: The effect the mixer ban has had on the forum. on: January 14, 2024, 11:44:23 AM
I made a note that I do not condemn such people. They have a reason: the need for finance. But I'm also talking about those other people who will exchange the convenience of a good car for any jalopy that somehow moves. Smiley
Nobody ever abandoned their good car; they still have it, but the ban on mixers only presented them with an alternative (jalopy) that also drives, so it's acceptable to say they now have two cars instead of one. And if good car is ever stolen, they will have something to fall back on at home.

The ban on mixers on BTT opened up opportunities for everyone to earn money elsewhere while still having a presence here. ATL forum is the new found gold.
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