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601  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Putin signed a law on the regulation of cryptocurrencies from 2021 on: August 02, 2020, 10:05:50 AM
Quote from: https://ria.ru/20200731/1575229960.html via Google Translate
Russian banks and exchanges will be able to become operators of the exchange of digital financial assets with the right to conduct sale and purchase transactions and exchange of such assets, and for this they must be included in a special register of the Central Bank.

The Bank of Russia will have the right to determine the signs of CFA, which only qualified investors can acquire, as well as, within a certain amount, unqualified individual investors.

That sounds like Russian exchanges will finally get solid legal footing. It also sounds like the choice of legally tradeable cryptocurrencies could end up rather arbitrary though. I wouldn't be surprised if the list of approved CFA's would boil down to Bitcoin, Ethereum and some Russian alt coin no one has heard of before.

i'm not quite sure how to interpret that. it may refer to a concrete set of criteria issued by the central bank, as opposed to explicit whitelists and blacklists.
602  Economy / Economics / Re: US economy suffers worst decline as GDP contracts by 32.9% in the second quarter on: August 02, 2020, 09:53:04 AM
because it shows the stock market is completely disconnected from company fundamentals. it's obviously just a game of greater fools. the fed prints money, the markets pump, and you can always sell higher.
Okay, let me rephrase my point

Would you be happy if Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies went straight downhill? But it is essentially the same money. I mean the money that gets pumped into the stock market somehow makes its way into cryptocurrencies too.

it does, i'm sure.

i would be happier with an actual free market---free of government interference; everyone stands on their own two feet. let the chips fall where they may. i don't need the fed to pump bitcoin, either.

the selective bailouts just exasperate the economic divisions in society. by perpetually giving handouts and subsidies to corporations and people who aren't poor and refusing to ever let the markets organically crash, they are destroying all notions of upward mobility and meritocracy. at the risk of sounding like a pinko commie, this is all pretty clearly designed to entrench existing capital and property owners at the expense of everyone else.
603  Economy / Economics / Re: Richard D Wolff: Democratize the Corporations on: August 02, 2020, 09:34:28 AM
worker ownership doesn't imply every executive decision requires a company-wide vote. i don't see why they couldn't elect perfectly capable operational executives.

think of it this way. shareholders just extract profits from the company. they don't actually provide any value. so what's wrong with cutting them out? if the goal of a company is not to generate profit for shareholders but to provide a good living and workplace for its workers, what's wrong with that?
The goal isn't to improve status quo for workers.

Its to strip majority share holders like Jeff Bezos(amazon) and Elon Musk(tesla) of control of their own companies. (And there are worse implications.)

Remove intelligent and competent leadership. Replace with unqualified puppets. Innovation and progress stalls as a result.

.....to what end?

these ideas have roots in anarcho-syndicalism, going back to the 1800s. they weren't invented to strip jeff bezos of power. Tongue

the entire reasoning behind worker self management is the conflict between shareholder and worker interests. why would workers be interested in self-management otherwise?

Quote
The goals of self-management are to improve performance by granting workers greater autonomy in their day-to-day operations, boosting morale, reducing alienation and eliminating exploitation when paired with employee ownership. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workers'_self-management

....and what proof do you have that this model would stifle innovation and progress? worker-owners have just as strong of an interest in a successful growing company as do capitalist shareholders, since they can pay themselves the dividends. in that sense, the profit motive still exists.

If anyone cared about the implications, they could test this on a small scale, on a trial basis to collect data on how it performs.

revolutionary concepts don't usually work like that. Tongue
604  Economy / Economics / Re: Richard D Wolff: Democratize the Corporations on: August 01, 2020, 09:08:24 AM
"Americans love democracy. Let's convince them granting unqualified, uninformed, uneducated and undisciplined workers executive power to make key business decisions is a good thing."

worker ownership doesn't imply every executive decision requires a company-wide vote. i don't see why they couldn't elect perfectly capable operational executives.

think of it this way. shareholders just extract profits from the company. they don't actually provide any value. so what's wrong with cutting them out? if the goal of a company is not to generate profit for shareholders but to provide a good living and workplace for its workers, what's wrong with that?
605  Economy / Economics / Re: US economy suffers worst decline as GDP contracts by 32.9% in the second quarter on: August 01, 2020, 08:41:09 AM
it's upsetting to watch the stock markets pump at a time like this
Why is it upsetting?

because it shows the stock market is completely disconnected from company fundamentals. it's obviously just a game of greater fools. the fed prints money, the markets pump, and you can always sell higher.

the risk has almost been completely removed from stock investment---or rather it's been socialized across society. when investors are effectively bailed out at every turn, asset prices (like housing) more or less permanently rise. this keeps the propertied/investor class entrenched, keeps the have-nots from attaining property, and punishes all savers by devaluing our currency, further compounding the problem.

in a true free market, people who make bad investments and buy into grossly over inflated markets would pay the price for their mistakes. we shouldn't be bailing these investors out. if we're tossing around bailouts, we might as well go full blown socialist---at least then there is some commendable goal ("to each according to his needs"), as opposed to just kowtowing to the investor class and making sure they never lose money.
606  Economy / Economics / Re: US economy suffers worst decline as GDP contracts by 32.9% in the second quarter on: July 31, 2020, 11:42:03 PM
... the US GDP has contracted by 32.9% in the second quarter...
It must be noted that the actual decline is 9.5% from the previous quarter. The 32.9% number assumes that the 9.5% decline continues for an entire year.

granted, but it was still the worst economic contraction in history by far---since they started keeping records anyway.

Things like evictions haven't gotten started yet and there's a whole wave of business death yet to come too.

Nobody knows where this going to end but it's going to get worse and take longer than initially expected.

i'm nervous to see what happens next. the beefed up unemployment payments are over. lots of moratoriums on evictions (including the one on federally subsidized housing) are ending. unemployment claims are on the rise again. this is all happening in the context of surging coronavirus outbreaks, which i expect to bring more economic slowdowns and retail closures.

it's upsetting to watch the stock markets pump at a time like this.
607  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin transaction was faster than a Bank transfer today (for me) on: July 31, 2020, 11:25:06 PM
In the developed world bank to bank transactions are free and near instant. In third world countries like the US it's still stone age.

zing! Grin

it's not that bad. we just don't have instant real-time transfers. a fed wire transfer sent during business hours (ie before 5pm eastern time) gets completed in ~ a couple hours. ACH transfers clear overnight.

that's the norm for business banking anyway. big banks like chase and bank of america often delay things a day or two for retail customers, but as far as i can tell it has little to do with real limitations of the banking system. it's just big banks treating consumers like shit.
608  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Putin signed a law on the regulation of cryptocurrencies from 2021 on: July 31, 2020, 11:09:41 PM
We all know that they have a hard line stance against crypto, I'm expecting this signing and implementation much earlier.

it's not totally anti-crypto. for example, the law explicitly allows companies to issue security tokens if they register with the central bank, which is a lot less harsh than china's 2017 regulation. the law also legitimizes BTC and other cryptocurrencies as investments by fitting them into the russian tax scheme.

the fact that crypto can't be used to pay for goods and services is certainly a bummer, but i don't see the news affecting the market (domestic or otherwise) and it also probably won't be enforced.
609  Economy / Economics / Re: i was right about the economy ! on: July 31, 2020, 09:57:22 PM

this is something i have learned the hard way: looking far into the future and trading based on logical assumptions about the world---eg "the second wave of coronavirus will destroy the stock market"---rarely works. people shorting or buying puts with that mindset have been getting punished for months, and tbh i expect that to continue.

the old keynes quote “markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” applies here.
610  Economy / Economics / Re: Richard D Wolff: Democratize the Corporations on: July 31, 2020, 08:38:55 PM
doesn't UBI just treat the symptoms too? it doesn't restructure the class system or property ownership. it just doles out a small entitlement---just big enough to keep the population from rioting and revolting.
It probably depends on how it's implemented. If we are considering a huge economic downturn due to Covid19, and vastly increased unemployment, then a UBI at a sufficient level to enable people to work part-time, and so spread the available employment across more people, might be desirable.

sure, as some sort of band-aid solution. it will keep people from starving in the streets, basically.

it's just not an answer to the systemic economic problems we face, especially with the specter of large scale job automation constantly hanging over our heads. it's a simple expansion of the welfare system, which itself only exists as a way to give poor people just enough to subsist. it doesn't fundamentally change anything. it's just a way to offset the effects of rising costs of living and rising unemployment.
611  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker talk - Specifically Hold'em - Hands and or strategy on: July 31, 2020, 04:20:56 AM
Hand #2
Hero Flat calls Flop bet

*** TURN *** [4d Ac Ad] [9c] Pot 25360.00                 

Villain Checks
Hero ??

i hate seeing any 9-K here. flying blind but you have to bet into him---why else would you flat call the flop?

lemme guess, he check-raised you? Smiley

Quote
Hand #3

*** TURN *** [Ah 4c Jc] [Qd] Pot-24240.00

Villain leads again  12120.00
Hero??

hmmm, that kicker.....

any reads on this guy? have you seen him double/triple barrel before?
612  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: It's F'n happening ----- Polk VS. Negreanu HUNL Grudge Match on: July 31, 2020, 04:08:38 AM
Pokershares didn't miss a beat... I did though. I caught a blog post here. That site also grabbed most of the relevant twitter posts.
Quote
Betting site PokerShares installed both players as close to even money in a prospective match, but the betting public has come in on Polk so far, moving the line to -119, about a 54% implied probability of winning.
https://www.pokernews.com/news/2020/07/the-muck-daniel-negreanu-doug-polk-grudge-match-37703.htm

dang, missed our shot at even odds. i had no idea where to look for action on this. the odds on polk are up to 1.42. https://www.pokershares.com/market/poker/6ee2a4d8-df3a-4c0b-bee2-1b14b727751f

have you guys used pokershares before? trustworthy?
613  Economy / Economics / Re: Richard D Wolff: Democratize the Corporations on: July 31, 2020, 03:57:44 AM
Unfortunately companies get really creative when it comes to circumventing regulation.

Introduce a limit to executive pay ratio? "Outsource" cheap labour to an "external contractor".

Introduce a limit to how many people a company can hire without actually employing them? "Downsize" your company and buy cheap labour from multiple "external contractors" that all "follow regulation".

Note that I'm not arguing against regulation, but pointing out how tough it is to get companies to follow them.

it's not just businesses. those loopholes are intentionally built into the law. most regulations are structured to hurt small businesses and benefit large corporations under the guise of protecting consumers. that should come as no surprise since it's support from big corporate lobbyists that is getting politicians elected in the first place. quid pro quo....

[...] or to restructure society so that money is not the ultimate aim.
To me this seems like the only way to get real change, as everything else is merely trying to treat the symptoms rather than the root cause. The introduction of universal basic income seems to be the only way to get there though.

doesn't UBI just treat the symptoms too? it doesn't restructure the class system or property ownership. it just doles out a small entitlement---just big enough to keep the population from rioting and revolting.
614  Economy / Economics / Re: Richard D Wolff: Democratize the Corporations on: July 30, 2020, 12:23:08 PM
Cooperatives don't have to be in the food industry, it's just the organizational structrure.

+1. consider credit unions vs banks. when shareholders are cut out of the equation, cooperative members split the spoils among themselves. in the case of credit unions, that means lower interest rates for borrowers and higher interest rates for depositors. this model can theoretically be applied to most sectors.

worker-owned businesses is a nice idea, but i still have trouble seeing how we get there from here on a large scale.

mondragon is probably the most interesting example of large scale worker cooperatives. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mondragon_Corporation
615  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: It's F'n happening ----- Polk VS. Negreanu HUNL Grudge Match on: July 30, 2020, 12:00:48 PM
daniel should have taken him up on his offer to play half NLHE and half a game of his choice. all online, all high stakes NLHE? my money is on polk.

when is this happening? i can barely follow all the back and forth on twitter.
616  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker talk - Specifically Hold'em - Hands and or strategy on: July 30, 2020, 11:30:53 AM
tbh i like to 3-bet postflop in spots like these because slow playing can generate big dangerous pots that are tough to play on turn/river against Ax.
I like the sounds of that. I won't get into what I did yet but I have run into spots like this where I wind up with the bottom boat for that reason AX hitting turn/river. I just can't decide if long run I'm losing more chips to them hitting the nuts with a slow play or by driving them off.

Curious what sizing would you go with for your 3-bet?

how often can you get someone to fold Ax there? how often will they give you action with no A if you call behind the flop?

re sizing, i approach it the same way i'd play against a flush draw. the odds are pretty similar. somewhere in the 3x-4x range seems good to extract value if he calls.

The last little hand I posted with Ad Kd, curious for your opinion on play here. My thoughts were that I didn't want the BB mixing in, they had been playing a lot of pots on the cheap and postflop could be a nightmare if I miss. CO hadn't been particularly active but with ~17 BB, I had the top of my range and figured I could likely re-steal.
In the end results based I could have called and jammed flop, but that only fits this hand. Even then I likely would have bet on the smaller side to keep them in.
Personally I think it's a solid play, but that's why I need outside opinions.

that's a fine way to play AK. it's a potential nightmare postflop, as you rightly point out. when we account for fold equity, it makes sense.
617  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Kucoin suspended my account without any warning on: July 30, 2020, 11:08:11 AM
All my deposits comes from other exchanges binance and two biggest Turkish crypto exchange. And worth of my funds was lower than 2000$ at the time of suspension later i deposited more because i wasn't aware of suspension.

no idea what might have triggered it? have you deposited lots of funds in the past? what about trading activity---what tier are you?

i hate to hear this about kucoin. just about every other exchange is doing these KYC questionnaires by now, but this is the first i've heard of it with them. i regularly trade there (unverified, USA) and haven't had any issues myself.

2 hours ago KuCoin updated their KYC verification guide and I think if he fails on KYC verification better repeat the procedure to submit a KYC verification again by following the new guide below.

- https://kucoin.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/360015102254-About-KYC-Verification

the only thing i've noticed that changed recently is that they now allow 3 accounts per 1 verified user. used to be no multi-accounting allowed.
618  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US Presidential Election 2020 on: July 29, 2020, 10:08:03 PM
Why is it so impossible that Bernie can't be VP?

two old white guys, that's why. it has nothing to do with policies or platforms. if you haven't noticed, identity politics are front and center in this election.

biden has already vowed to pick a woman VP, so technically that's why it's impossible. in terms of odds, it's pretty clear by now that it will be a non-white woman. i'll be very surprised if it's anyone besides kamala harris or susan rice.
619  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker talk - Specifically Hold'em - Hands and or strategy on: July 29, 2020, 09:55:32 PM
hand #1 seems like a decent spot to stack off, depending on your strategy. small chance you're dominated but usually not as most villains aren't shoving so huge w/ QQ-AA there. i think you're generally a 60/40 favorite, maybe better, against a typical range there.

hand #2---preflop i'm in position, can take the pot if i sense weakness postflop, plus set mining. hard to say what i'd do on the turn not knowing what you did postflop and what villain did on the turn. tbh i like to 3-bet postflop in spots like these because slow playing can generate big dangerous pots that are tough to play on turn/river against Ax.

hand #3---A9o is not my favorite opening hand, it's near the margins full ring, but i think the open and call are fine. i'm curious to see what he did on the turn.
620  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US Presidential Election 2020 on: July 29, 2020, 09:41:30 PM
Harris has been my favourite all the time and I wanted to place a bet on here in the upcoming days - she was around 2.70 before this pic was taken. Now the odds have dropped already, which is super annoying^^

i've been saying it for several weeks now, ever since the BLM protests took off. susan rice is a distant second, but kamala is the obvious choice. VP selection is all about getting out the vote in your own party. nobody else is gonna fire up black and progressive voters like her.

I somehow think this 1.7x is still good, but not too much into this topic and the other candidates to be brave enough to place a bet. Can anyone convince me to do it ?

i liked her at 2.7 but it's still good odds IMO.

trump's odds improving, now at 2.76. i have a feeling we already saw the best odds we'll get on him. he needed a stock market rally, and he got one.
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