First of all, OP is a good read, even though I disagree on main points.

The issue of hard limit boils down to psychology and culture. It is stated in the OP how the supply of an ideal currency should scale with the economic growth or recession. In that case, we need to think in terms of changing supply and (ideally) steady real value of the unit of currency. In reality, however, this implies trust in a central authority issuing and destroying currency at their (corrupt) will. It implies uncertainty. Importantly, we have all seen how dysfunctional and corrupt this system is. Taking "experts" seriously would mean mental disease at this point.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, offers a mathematically certain supply (with some minor variation due to hash rate variation and compressed or extended schedule of difficulty adjustments). In the case of Bitcoin, therefore, we need to think in terms of scheduled supply and variable real value of the unit depending on the growth or recession of the economy. If the economy is growing, value of coins is rising, and people may slow down on spending and increase savings, thereby slowing down the economy, thus leading to a slower increase or even to a decrease in the value of a coin, which then stimulates spending, and drives the economic growth... you get the picture. Hard limit on the supply leads to a sane, self-regulating economy, as opposed to the current mainstream idiocy.

As for the correlation between google search volume and the price, it is similar (but with shorter delay) to correlation between mining difficulty (corrected for technology leaps) and price: it all follows price swings. Certainly it would be possible to drive the price up simply by driving media frenzy (real pump'n'dump) - but this has not happened at any significant scale yet.

Now, looking at the price itself, it is all  a matter of choosing time scale based on your preferences. There are multiple players in the game, and the system is fair and open to all, therefore there will inevitably be some volatillity. I am concerned with the long-term success of Bitcoin as a savings and payment system, so I tend to look at weekly averages over the period of many months or years. Minor rallies, crashes, and episodes of mass hysteria do not interest me much. Based on fundamentals, fair price right now is in the $30 - $60 range, and based on the additional media frenzy I'd put it at $50-$80.

If no real bad news hit us (major bug in the protocol - less and less likely as years go by), I see no reason for the general upwards trend to stop. Bitcoin is a useful technology, and more and more people will be finding it useful. Therefore, the value will keep rising, with the bumps along the way.

I'm sure you can buy WM gift cards with coins, but it's not WM selling them for coins.

Anyway, Yahoo lives up to its name... again.

I do not understand what you are trying to show here. There is a plot showing that weekly google search volume for "bitcoin" has recently been increasing, but is presently below the peak from 2011.

Next, you state an opinion that the "danger" of another price crash is "rising."  How is this related to your observation of the search volume? Also, what makes you think that the risk of price correction is rising? Why would it not be constant? Or declining? Is your statement different from saying that the danger of another earthquake in California is rising? Or is it always the same?

I fail to see the reasoning behind your post. Please elaborate.

...and exchanges can then be meta-exchanges, providing services such as escrow, or regulatory compliance, or protection from regulatory bodies, etc. - whatever an investor prefers, while companies are shielded from the chaos of various preferences of various investors. At the same time, companies would still have access to the whole world of investors - not limiting themselves to certain subgroup with certain preferences. It's a win-win-win situation.

I had an idea back in late 2010, then forgot about it, reformatted the hard drive, remembered it again in ~April 2011. That's all, and that's what brought me here. I'm out of ideas related to Bitcoin, but I'm not out of coins.

At this moment one bitcoin is worth only 2.6












...troy ounces of silver.

Same thing. Time to face the new reality.

Even better, we should always provide some meaningful comparisons:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22buy%20bitcoin%22,%20%22sell%20bitcoin%22

This is how most sane people operate. They decide what they would like things to be like, then they check if that's the case. If not, they act to try to correct the things to their liking. In the example above, Peter Lambert noted that he saw a problem with how governments operate, and proposed a cure (not specific, though).

Then why are you exchanging coins into USD?

Unrelated to your or my idiocy, this is about the trail in fiat, not in Bitcoin. Sure, I could painstakingly try to exchange for cash only in person or via SR mail at a huge premium - but this does not work well for me. I use government fiat, I get paid in fiat, and those who issue, own, and control fiat are entitled to whatever entitlements they come up with, tax included. I don't want to waste time fucking around with them so I can pinch a few thousands or tens of thousands more. Not worth it.
Don't fight the Babylon, step out of it.
Sure, I prefer to issue, own, and control my own money under my terms, that is why Bitcoin is attractive, but we are not there yet, and idiotic battles will not get us there.

Actually, yes. I was just being goofy about the correction.
My mother-in-law is somewhat of a gold bug. Apparently she did some research and decided bitcoins are worth a try. While I agree most of recent upsurge is driven by "smart" money, we should not neglect thousands of grandmas...

Never discussed Bitcoin with her, and my wife is pretty reserved.

...expect a correction soon.

To begin with, it clearly is not a single person.
Another easily verifiable fact is that they are a benevolent force working stubbornly to everybody's benefit, inside and outside Bitcoin.

@OP:  I am assuming you bought or mined the coins at a lower cost than what you sold them for. Good for you. Don't let Captain Hindsights here ruin the joy of profiting.

I am still holding, because - unlike you - I feel the fundamentals are mostly strong and going stronger. My coins, however, are worth nothing untill I actually spend them. Lots of confused folks around don't understand this, and can't tell what is from all the whatifs, shouldhaves, and wouldhaves.

I am, in fact, impressed with BFL. It is a miracle they were able to get this far, given the obvious lack of competence at all levels, and a known scammer among them. Just look at what happened to another American ASIC project, bASIC.
It is not fair comparing these people with the kids from China (two teams to actually deliver ASICs thus far) - well educated, humble, and hard working.

You do realize what "M" in MtGox stands for, do you?

No. Dwolla sends USD to Mutum Sigillum, a U.S. entity. They are the ones doing the international transfer, at least until March 23 when coinlabs take over and keep it all "domestic" for U.S. clients.