Insurance is not inherently fraudulent.
It's nothing more than allowing customers to spread out the cost of large, infrequent losses over time into small periodic payments.
Every person who drives a car will eventually experience an accident of some kind. By buying insurance drivers pay for their accidents a little bit every month instead of getting a big bill all at one.
Over a driver's lifetime he will pay the insurance company more than the cost of the accidents he's experienced (insurance companies don't work for free). This excess is the price of predictability.
In a free market the cost of insurance would tend towards its optimum value, but of course whenever coersion is involved proper pricing goes out the window.
The theoretical equilibrium monthly cost for deposit insurance would be something like: [(the average amount of bitcoins a depositor will lose at a particular institution during the next 10 years)/120 + (insurance company operating costs and profits)]
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Felony blackmail threats against a presidential candidate are a little bigger than a mere marketing campaign.
Somebody went and hand delivered packages to office buildings, at the risk of leaving being identified due to residual DNA/fingerprints as well as possibly being captured on a surveilance camera. To do something that risky for a prank would be incredibly idiotic.
Then again people gave Pirate their money so I suppose anything's possible.
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Last baby boomers start claiming their entitlements through the U.S. gov't.
Financial markets, Equities, Gold, and Silver crash at least 25% each.
Unemployment/underemployment reaches 40%
Short-term deflation is in the air as there is a run on fiat currencies.
Central banks print in an effort to stop deflation.
Helicopter Ben overreacts and ends up inflating the USD into oblivion.
Investors dump their dollars to get real tangible goods (gold, silver, real estate, commodities).
Gold and silver prices skyrocket and this produces a mass shortage of physical metal.
Bitcoin prices, given its unregulated nature, have skyrocketed up to $100, down to $30, up to $500, down to $150, and have gone upwards of $1000 each.
...
Bitcoin is priced higher than its use for trade would suggest because a lot of people have disposable income they can afford to divert towards speculation. In times of severe economic stress less of those people will exist; many people will be forced to cash out their Bitcoin holdings to pay bills and a lot more people won't be able to buy and hold Bitcoins even if they want to because they are living paycheck to paycheck. In that case the exchange rate of Bitcoin (and gold) corrects downward. If you want to protect the exchange rate of your bitcoins do whatever you can to encourage its adoption by businesses. Get trade flowing between people who would otherwise be unable to transact.
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I think no matter how big the bitcoin economy is it will always represent only 10% of the price the other 90% will always represent speculation. If the bitcoin economy grows to a 1 Billion dollar thing, then price will rise high enoght to allow for speculation to take 90% of the value. The only way this will change is if 100% of the people involved with bitcoin are paid in bitcoin and NEED to spend 90% of each bitcoin pay check to live comfortably. And so what if 90% of the price is pure speculation, 90% of the gold's value is pure speculation, no one cares, its just how it works. The reason that existing markets are so dominated by speculation is because central banks can print up cheap credit at will to let their friends speculate with. The ability to do this is severely curtailed with regards to Bitcoin trading.
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If I think about this a bit and unfortunately that is all there is regarding the Bitcoin economy, I think it is overpriced, I would expect to see an economy develop around 1:1 with the USD and when that was stable I would imagine the demand would grow organically. Right now the exchange rate is 10% driven by commerce and 90% driven by daytraders. This actually represents a signifigant improvement and it's improving all the time. The ratio needs to invert, though, before bitcoin can really be considered mature enough to be a store of value.
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Properly-priced deposit insurance would be expensive due to the nature of the risks involved.
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I suggest you reread my post. You're the one who needs to reflect on the nature of society.
"Society" is just a label we apply to the aggregate actions of individual people. "Society" once endorced chattel slavery. In an example of one of the slow, infrequent steps forwards the species has made in terms of moral progress the practice is now considered nearly universally unjustifiable. What was once done openly and proudly is now recognized even by the few people who still practice it as a crime that must be hidden from public scrutiny. So it will go eventually with statism. It's defenders will be regarded by future historians the same way we now perceive the slaver owners and traders of earlier centuries.
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How about we use ethics instead? Nobody is justified in using threats or actual violence to compel anyone to do anything.
People will still do it, of course, since the world contains many unethical people but the problem would be enormously reduced if otherwise good people would stop making excuses for predatory behavior by cloaking it in euphamisms like "social contract", "good of society", "will of the majority", "price we pay for civilization", etc. The cost of preying upon other people is greatly reduced when the predators can convince their victims not to defend themselves.
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Announcing a half-baked idea is counterproductive; you'll just get a gazillion questions that you can't answer, or, even worse, people will assume they know the answers and then be disappointed when it turns out the idea they thought they heard you describe isn't the same idea they thought they heard. It's too late; that outcome was assured as soon as it became known that an idea was baking at all. Hmmm, this little dialogue could be consistent with maybe a P2P bitcoin exchange extension/mod for satoshi client .... gawd knows we could do with one. Keep talking ...
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When do the Scammer tags get distributed?
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People are being paid to develop solutions - they just work for a collection of companies like Mt Gox, BitInstant, Paysisus, BitPay, etc.
That being said community funding of the core developers isn't a bad idea.
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Some of those excerpts you quoted sound almost like verbatim quotes from forum threads.
Does Rebecca Greenfield have an account here?
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Someone on IRC mentioned a SYN flood against Mt Gox today, but I haven't seen anyone confirm or refute it.
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This is actually a decent point....bitcoins could be used to make/take illegal campaign contributions on the down low. That said, I think btcs instability would help to curb that. You can bet that plenty of elected officials would love to be able to accept dirty money without risking the embarassment of having their freezer full of cash discovered.
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This is definitely a negative thing, although it will more than likely cause a short term bubble it will wake politicians up to the fact there's an online currency that makes all the worlds banks NYC policies redundant. accepting bribes and kickbacks easy. fixed
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Are you still able to process payments if, for example, the mtgox website is unresponsive for an hour?
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DDos or Slashdot effect from the news coverage today?
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The reputation bitcoin is garnering with the endless parade of frauds and thefts is doing far more harm than any regulation ever could. In any case, by tolerating these scams and failing to handle the situation, this community is inviting the attention all by itself.
It's not obvious to me that the attention is negative on balance. The fact that thieves are stealing bitcoin amounts worth such large sums when priced in USD reinforces the idea that bitcoins are worth stealing. What's the net psychological effect of these competing influences?
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I only make estimations of expected exchange rates to even powers of 10 because I don't actively trade.
Based on the estimations of the amount of bitcoin-denomimated trade and the assumption that the velocity of bitcoin used for commerce is similar to the velocity in the larger economy I expect the exchange rate to be between $1 and $10 while the amount of annual bitcoin commerce is between $10 million and $100 million.
Likewise if the exchange rate ever reached the $100 and $1000 values that some people are hoping for I would consider it to be a bubble unless the bitcoin economy was supported by $1 billion and $10 billion respectively in annual commerce.
So how you explain the fact that gold commerce is close to zero and gold exchange rate is pretty high? Speculative premium, which is another way of saying it's overvalued. There's still too much speculative premium in the bitcoin exchange rate right now for me to store money I can't afford to lose as bitcoins, or to recommend it as anything other than a means of exchange only. That will change in the future when the amount of Bitcoin-demoninated trade increases.
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If Bitcoin becomes really big and I believe it will in a form or another, then the governments would gain more by embracing it and taxing it, rather then shutting it down. I don't know why some people on this forum hold such pessimistic views... They're not just pessimistic, they're also unlikely. I believe that mid and high level bueracrats will become increasingly desperate to cash out before the fiscal situation becomes untenable so if they start paying attention to Bitcoin at all it will be to launder whatever public funds they can get their hands on for their own use.
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