What I've learnt previously is just take these stop loss and put your entry far closer to it and then start dealing with the market pushing past there only to return ie. give yourself alot more leeway.    I think both those areas are the boundaries, putting a stop loss there probably means the trade ends just as its tested and could reverse back in favour.
   High over this weekend is near to 9779 which is just an old fib line, first point of some resistance going up past 10k.   Yearly average at 8558 is less probable now but if we were to break down, that kind of price is where I think some buy or closing of shorts happens and we reattempt higher.   
  Its definitely harder to go short but I just use that to hedge so Im net long.

I remember last time even Trump didnt think he'd win or that was the impression and maybe that did him good because apparently people believed every vote counted and they had to goto the polls or 'their candidate' wouldnt win.   You need people who are heavily attached to that cause and they'll vote no matter what not tactically or because others are.    So I dont find its especially proven.   Trump ran a term similar to how he ran his candidacy, quite bizarre at times and yet he remains and might be there another four years.   If people feel as strongly to vote the democrat candidate then I guess he would not survive that, if people aren't motivated the default win goes to the guy in power the last four years.   Happens in lots of countries that way I think.

Heres a good chart to show how population distribution varies to terrority, its not showing the electoral collage really but shows how the polls just showing raw numbers isnt enough.   Besides that stats are about probability and possibilities, it cant tell you what will happen just the best guess.

Latest action into the weekend to see off this positive week that has turned around the price is a tangle with the 2 day average.   I would usually expect us to benefit from light action over the weekend but its possible profit taking occurs, I'll still wait till late Sunday to see how we move from this area.

Exceeding the ATH is perfectly possible so long as you dont overestimate the stability of main market currencies which are the alternate we measure in.   The recent moves in Dollar show we are likely to see continuing currency weakness and easily making new highs possible.
  Consider the Dollar of 2021 will not be the same dollar of 2017 yet they will appear on the graph as if they were, since value declines every year that FIAT continues it becomes increasingly likely we ascend pricing just so long as BTC maintains itself in capability and population of users.   If we have growth even then its quite reasonable to expect higher prices then $10,000.    All I will argue is patience is required and resilience as are likely to see many negatives even while BTC might rise over years.

Its making another run up but its true this is old ground and on larger time frame we're repeating these attempts at higher.   On the shorter time frame its good looking action, this is the type of price build wanted in clear sight and then you hope it tips into something wider then just hours but days.   Positive above the 50 day so its some definite attempt to move into the resistance of five figure pricing.



Theres a wider boundary but thats the range today 9200 to 9800 and for now just hoping it coils up into a stable attempt to attack pricing above.   Blue line is the 2 day average and its quite aggressive in not falling below that, somebody is wanting to buy into a position right now.

While nobody was looking July did put in some line of rising lows, which so far as I know is quite bullish.   It could develop further, in Feb 2017 that was one of the things I remember me think twice.   We'll have to see if its just a mirage or actual base line for a trend being put into place, in which case I was wrong not to take the OP post more seriously.

Its starting to look a bit more bullish now but its only short term as an idea for now.   Its basically in the same range but theres the idea of rising prices on the lows for most of July, not that impressive but its worth noting because later on it can lead to the more impressive action that nobody ignores as its so active.
   Immediately I would look at 9800 to see how it handles that, not sure there will be any reasoning to take a negative point of view on Friday which means we drift over the weekend and close this weekly positively.   Then next week it can build or fall apart, hard to say but definitely seems a maybe for bullish action on more then just hundreds pacing back and forth like prior action.

Not against any idea in theory but this concept sums up a contraction of the economy which generally relates to a lower valuation most of the time.    On the basis of efficiency then sure I see the reasoning but against it seems a forced situation, its better when people have good jobs with money worth spending ie. a house is one of the most justified expenditures in an economy.
     I'd rather speculate the idea of students in paid for accommodation with free electricity and thats tied to alt coin mining perhaps and once upon a time that'd be part of BTC but also its reasonable to speculate that money flow is still there with students willing to 'invest' some of their students funds into BTC and that could create a wave that causes prices to rise at certain times of the year.   Its very speculative all this, I much prefer to watch charts for observable bullish periods.

I hate to say anything about 10k because its the round number fallacy but fair enough there are a few things obstructing  in this area not literally just all the zeros.   I'd not normally expect much accumulation to occur but I do see that trend for July now posted above and its going back to May and has some standing.   The last two days have been gains which held and got us past 50 day average, maybe more importantly past the series of lower highs forming for a while now.     Those two things seems like its time to consider an expansion rather then contraction in range as has been occuring, higher prices might occur possibly if only for summer.

Weekly bar would be my preference to have more certainty of anything new so thats a bar closing past 9.8k, that would register going into next week.  Then we got progression on multiple time frames and we can stop the repeat like a broken record.

Surely theres enough people rolling for that prize every day that it is triggered.   The majority of free rolls arent done by people who will then come and post on this forum, theres even a prize to claim for coming to the forum to say you won.  I'd do that if I ever won but somebody is winning that roll probably daily, why not if they have that many people attempting then its going to trigger some.
   I think many just dont notice how much they've won initially, it'll show in history but its quite possible that a win occurs and only later it clicks for them and they recognise they just got very lucky.   A bit like those people who win a lottery and keep the ticket in the car for 2 months unchecked, happens far too often because some have been trying for years so they just expect not to win.   10k or 20k odds in lottery terms is favourable as most are millions to one, to compare you might divide the ticket cost by the odds available then judge the prize possible for value and there you will find why governments love lottery sales for the value it registers in their favour.


The moons have aligned, just as the close beckons for July guesses and we close into end of month then this BTC price is possibly doing something new.   Hasnt pushed past 50 day average for a month but its doing it today and holding.  I count it as something significant, first price to encounter and climb over will be 9800 and then theres an array of obstacles to price rising much further then another 500 above so I might put on a guess between those two slots.    I have no choice but to be optimistic on price when theres an underlying trend gain for the whole of July and we just rose off of it quite aggressively.

Seems like its going to happen this time, we have price rising past the fifty day average for a full day so its already exceeded the last attempt on July 8th and also a higher price is now showing.  Silver was up 8% today I think which shows we have some inflationary main market trend on going which lends a tail wind to BTC price accumulation attempts.



Heres your first price target which is the peak for late June, 9800 some classical resistance in the price and thats the wider issue for 10k area.   However if it can exceed 9.8k in the same way its just passed this last peak price, that further establishes positive price possibilities and may bring speculators into the price for gains to exceed the top prices so far in 2020.

It has been said that the banks have provided no innovations in the last thirty years beyond the provision of ATM machines, everything else they represent is not unique or especially a requirement.   A shop can provide cash if need be, banks have provided secure web sites but that also is possible with 3rd party businesses.   Could argue mortgage provisions but we also know the banks screwed up mortage handling previously too and friendly societies have already provided house buying schemes going back a hundred years.   In the modern economy theres one certain thing banks are being used to do which is propagate central bank policy and by amplifying the monetary base between themselves by the effects of fractional reserve banking.   Thats your one sure reason banks wont be removed from the economy.

Oh well I guess we need not fear South Korea ever taking over world commerce to any extent if this is their understanding of free trade.   Restricting and removing 20% of a global economic trade every time it goes near your country is a sure way to avert that revenue stream from interaction within your national boundaries.   Its really a negative and poor understanding of how a society gains from capitalism and free exchange of value, good, ideas and services.    All of which are disenabled by the great clodding speedbump the government is putting in the way.
   Nobody is going to benefit from this tax, its nonsense just like all the people who believe a country can balance its budget with 90% taxes on the rich.   You are just helping every tax free haven to gain the benefit from those resources and people elsewhere.   Any law in any country has to be competitive or it will just hand the business onto a better system.   Korea does alot of things great, they are pretty lost to even consider this imo but doubt they listen.

Dont even wish for 250k in such a small time, this represents collapse of some kind.    Just look at the potential difference between those two numbers, consider not just the singular unit but the entire market capitalisation.   We should be quoting how large would BTC be in entirety not just a price, its far too much.   So sure anything is possible but its a fine line between a rocket and an explosion and that much energy in the price suggests to me something went badly wrong, perhaps in dollar or BTC rises too fast and self destructs.   That might be ironic but its far better to get stable rises which confirm over years, I keep saying 10k is a great price and its true when it holds its building something stable I think.

Ironic point of the week, exchanges now good for anti scam apparently :



Overvalued vs what though, we have such easy money the price of anything with prospective revenue is valued far more then the immediate value and so speculation is very high.   All the tech stocks are high but its justifiable still and previously they were depressed and neglected as a sector post dotcom boom.   For years they were overlooked and with the relevance of tech higher then ever I dont think thats the place I would look for over value.    It is extraordinary that Twitter cant even touch the July low, maybe people cant realise how serious the loss of root access is.

He was fighting mid term which most of the time is not going to happen.  Mitt Romney took a shot that was never likely to work out, not sure he's ever gained from it where as at least Kerry got some job later on hence I guess it was worth that fight for him.    Maybe he was advised, maybe Trump has some sense in his head or perhaps just the feedback at that time did not favour a run.    If somehow Trump has some good reckoning for these fights, better at the election then the actual job it'd be something to note.


This helps Trump and his general stance if anything because a common enemy will unite.   Its something external to his own mess to blame and if anything Trump is creating this fight.

Even in Poker you can reduce it to a maths problem and the rest is beyond your ability to alter to a large extent.  However in experience many find it is very much how you play it, not just the bluff but reading of the deck and other peoples styles hence it becomes a more of fuzzy game over straight logic.    I would relate slots in that way just because of comfort and recognition within the game, yes dice or slots can be playable purely by the numbers if you somehow know everything perfectly but realistically it will be down to ease of play and feedback the user has.   Its a personal thing, some people hate Poker Im sure though I agree its one of the best games for odds to play.

I count only one type of volatility which is price inaccuracy and leads to both up and down, sometimes at the same time.

Even gold can sell off, maybe to the degree that it can half if we take the 1970's price action as a template for any volatile market.   That was even within a bullish period so I imagine the same is possible for crypto.   The reason is gold is cash and similarly, BTC will used as cash and sent for a sell when people need it which in economic pullback is often possible.
   The sell off in gold like March is not something that lasts but still it can disturb people enough that they trade poorly and end up with FIAT which invariable loses value no matter what.

Microsoft and generally tech aiding distance working seems to be a big gainer even with the idea GDP pulling back will affect all aspects of the economy no matter what.   Its possible that stage is lagged and we have not seen the full fallout yet.   Anyway witness MSFT results reported a few minutes ago, best they could be apparently

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-q4-earnings-2020-132008488.html

Never been bothered by digital advancement but I dont count this kind of thing as much progress  and I wouldnt say its crypto, it is digital currency but we already had centralised book keeping and FIAT which is largely contained on spreadsheets and most cash which is digital the entirety of its lifespan.    Are we really moving forward especially with this, not really.   Governments are keen on closer monitoring of cash movements and believe it will raise tax revenue, India did something along these lines in recent years by removing certain cash notes over night.


Almost every country has digital currency, if theres any innovation it will be interesting to note how it alters economies.   I doubt we see anything resembling Bitcoin appear, governments gain alot of money just by being in control and by force which is not how BTC is exchanged.   We're chasing the rainbow on that one, great idea but we'll never reach or see the end landing just talk.   SDR is next and its FIAT.