It can goto 10k and even past this and would still not be great significance.    The average price is of more importance or to be clearer the volume of orders passed at a price is of more signifiance but BTC price can swing to some pretty wild extremes we've seen it a few times and yet it returns to a more normal price later.    So it can do both, exceed expectations and swing past 10k but also return to the 200 day average not that long after and need the market to prove its demand there for some time.   Just my guess we do play that out in this year.

I cant criticise, I very nearly fell victim to the same thing.  I bet zero above the 9000 price which is foolish because the odds were great, even better and the price absolutely did goto 9400 in the hours before contest close so I was randomly lucky.    I cant have been thinking because it takes very little stake at high odds to place enough to win back all your other stakes ie. come out with no loss no gain, on worse/outlier outcome.

Cheap oil benefits companies with cheaper energy costs.    The oil company itself might not like it but the economy as a whole is gaining from this, in every market if the price is lower then you have winners and losers and it should never be all of one or the market is not likely valid.

Bitcoin is a energy user, normally its gaining from some kind of remote or special use energy and transmits that value (partly) via the token value.   Both in the mining use directly but also cooling could be considered as part of the energy usage, of course there is the manufacturing of the technology but thats harder to state.     The reason stocks drop at the same time as oil in this case is they are both in reference to the underlying reasons which is lower business demand in the economy, so costs of oil or energy might be lower but the production demand is lower.   Bitcoin might not have lower demand in this way, we're not sure but its costs are reduced and the process is more efficient presently I think.

Got lucky on the April Bitcoin price guess, I dont think this month will be so easy but I should have had more confidence in April vs these odds because it was near to the 200 day average so surely I figured we had gravity in that area.     Sure enough it landed on my highest bet though I chose a couple with much lower bets in case we hit it and went down but we crossed over into the highly unlikely odds area lucky for me , not sure I will guess again so well next time.   Pretty sure I benefited from the time factor for having confidence early.    I'll be mulling over May guess for far longer, it should get progressively harder to continue upwards but it cant be as simple as 10k surely.  12293 for a simple gradient continuation vs 23x odds, at present I dont like that bet

The case for gold is inverse to monetary policy which we've seen is reliant on diluting value.   I dont see that will change, even without the virus it was not a prospect.    Gold as a retail product for people is a minor, people will hold it to secure value but I would rate that not yet in effect especially.   I cant think of one person I know who thinks to save any gold, jewelry I dont rate as significant and its always mixed and used lightly.  In could be in future used in majority to store value, we are nowhere near to that end game possibility for gold.  
  India has always have poor currency standard so far as I know, so it is tradition to them.   The quote above mentions it as part of wedding season but really the gold represents value passed, inheritance though it might be jewelry they do actually use the value I think.  Its worth looking into anyway, a few countries in asia do employ gold as a tool to manage their finances.
   
I consider the case for gold and BTC separately, I'm not going to put them in competition as I think they both have their uses.   For the common people BTC appears more easily handled to me, that wont be as true in countries with poor telecoms and infrastructure.

In theory the oil price effects everything because most activities involve energy use.   Reduce the cost of something by 90% and it should be a kind of natural stimulus if anything.   Bitcoin is included in that as its very energy involved so far as I've read, it used to be years back and still is now I think.

It is supposed to reflect something greater, its usually really simple.  Like 6000 price was significant for ages so in future when we cross that line it has significance.    Put it this way, the longer we spend in area the more it accumulates volume and a variety of people are holding or looking at this price.   Still doesnt have to matter because big news is bigger volume then normal and we roll over the kerbs if they are there at all but traders love this stuff because of the gradient.
   If they trade using borrowed money they dont want a long flat upward ascension they want to capture the rapid sharp move with a big candle.   Also theres another factor, if I borrow 10k to go long I'm then pretty nervous going to sleep on that buy because of that news factor that overrides every supposed pattern.   Lots of hot money is in the market usually.   Hot money also means we are leashed to the dollar story of contraction or inflation, hence we sold off in March.
Consensus is what moves markets really, when everyone agrees then we all push in the same direction against the wall and it falls.    Trying to spot a pattern is just a way of guessing when that might occur, passing a price which held 4 times previous and now fell away is time for caution anyhow.

So far as downtrend now then no I dont like it really or I dont give it much credence.  I'd rather focus on flat resistance likely, we've passed the July selloff as I originally marked it.    Or we can look at 200 DMA which everyone knows about and is a fair measure of our progress longer term.  I dont count MA as TA as its just simple maths and marking a line in the sand shows the tide, nothing too involved in that.

At top level play it would be nonsensical to do so, the pay off vs the livelihood these players have now is not worth it.    Its the end of them playing in CS pretty much, the reason is if found out and its often something will come out they will be banned.   Any player banned cannot take part in valve related events, anything that receives any type of direct support.   There are lots of matches organised outside of Valve influence but if you are excluded from that base line it means a team finds you as damaged goods and will not pay to have a fifth wheel.    s1mple used to be banned from ESL events for example, he was close to teamless despite being one of the worlds best players so a valve ban is even worse then that.

The contrast is that the most famous throw game case was dating back to 2014 and I bet on this famous game because I knew of the one of the underdog players was greatly underrated, he later won a world title.   In 2014 the team that threw did not receive any compensation for playing, they got very little.   Free flights to LAN and a computer I think was about the benefits, maybe sticker money not sure.   So in base terms money wise it made sense to them to pay for the highest bidder which was a gambling ring.   Right now its easy to be honest as players are far better off and receive wages or at least are looking forward to that possibility.

His investment is his management company more then anything else, the assets contained within are a matter of opinion.    He has lots of foreign stocks, China especially I think and gold miners and oil I believe.

The problem with advice from Schiff is he is not a trader especially, so making a call like this when we have alot of inflation and easy money is he can easily be wrong.   The real message he is trying to say is fundamental not timing especially, so he is doing himself no favours.

True about the adverts, some places are like wading into an arms race of my blockers vs their spam bots.   Some might think I'm exaggerating but I literally got to use task manager to nuke the entire browser sometimes the site windows can be so aggressive in reappearing and all kinds of code to block normal use of the browser or reset my home page and multiple kinds of nonsense and tricks.    Enditall is a useful util to google on that point btw.
   Really puts people off imo and turns their attitude towards that site as toxic and not trustworthy.   I'm ok with anything reasonable and unobtrusive, I believe newspapers rely on ads alot.   I have always thought a subtle advert is fine (more effective even) but I dont know how the rates work out nowadays.   Ages ago when I used to be able to get ad revenue from youtube and also a tiny site I ran it was all about the clicks not really the plain view, hence the bait that sites try to get people to accidentally click the adverts they arent interested in.

I dont count 2017 but there is a series of lower highs going back like 11 months or so.   Its fair to say there something of a make or break scenario here, most likely we are to retract before deciding in the future rather then now especially.    A break upwards to 10k from here would alter a negative trend of some time meaning its quite alot more likely to then act more positively then during that period.     In 2017 or even last year it was a series of rising lows that convinced me we were to go a distance upwards, it was not clear how far up though.   
  Right now I still think we have got more time to develop before a grander move, we'll celebrate early a few times before it does go all out on a proper move I reckon.

The overwhelming appeal to martingale is its simplicity, thats it and why its a strategy repeated and remembered by punters for ages.   To employ more complex statistical techniques and analysis would involve more time, effort and education to gain any advantage if there was one to have.
   I heard about martingale sitting in a casino bar 20 years ago, I wont be surprised if it goes back decades before that and its just like an urban myth that lights peoples imaginations.   No discernible benefit clearly where as the OP points out house advantage is ongoing in in its importance and is something worth noting every bet placed.

Its fair for the bounce from the low to accumulate into more in this pressure cooker prior to the block reward change, thats all positive sentiment.    Todays high price has been an old trend in line with the overall price trend since March low :



If we pull back just to the previous positive trend we'd be at the 2 day average, so thats about 8000 area.   If OP saw 8000 as possible top of some kind, then it can be some support on the way back.   I'm not yet sure if that low would then be a place to buy for higher prices still.   Generally its acting positive and should not be doubted for now, myself I thought the 200 Daily moving average would be where we stay for April at least.

10% gold as a hedge to the failure of all other assets is a classic rule.    I'd say over 90% of investors dont adhere to this rule and I expect the market to swing from disinterest to blind stupidity in pricing and already a few go overboard and invest too much in some inert metal that doesnt exactly have utility without the rest of the economy.   The native peoples left the heavy rock on the ground because its worth to a mobile tribe was poor, they weren't wrong.   So in 1849 you could fill a bucket with the yellow rocks picked off the ground apparently, doesnt sound real but every market can see extremes to supply and demand.
   We saw this with oil recently, I'm thinking of all the possible uses for energy, desalinators and all kinds of big usage and yet oil traded as a trash or waste product like sulphur does most often.    The inverse like carbon credits maybe or CDS in '08, is oil tanker rental contracts went up 1000%   nice for smart anticipators of that market excess.   Every market has to have a winner and loser to the price or we see it tear itself apart, its not a one off.


So I do doubt BTC would goto 1 dollar (without protocol interruption etc), the surprising thing is from the worst critics on Bitcoin is they say it has a use likely always and estimate a few hundreds for price is the worst.   The reason being more then one major FIAT standard is set to destroy itself so the use of a standard not biased to politics or the needs of only one part of the market gives it a worth especially as BTC trades non stop always.   The price is secondary to time and utility of people who need it to trade other things globally, digitally in an independant way.

BTC price is at year average roughly and also arguably an old trend

^^ I checked the list and Iam on there with my piddling amount of entries.    That was a massive amount of tickets on the winner, so that means I lost my side bet because I didnt cover that range of tickets as being the winner.  
   Someone smart or maybe just with a tool could collate that data sheet and give probability or graph vs entries in each size holder category for this round.     Thats effectively what I do when I look at share volume, though a website does it for me


Its a simple rule, if it sounds too good it probably is.     They dont need you if they already have a system to earn 5 BTC daily, somewhere theres a cost that they dont want as risk, capital or time.   In this case they will just straight up tax you 100% probably, very efficient business.



I saw several thousand tickets so either way it was a big roller.    I got a quick question, BTC rose over 12% today so how late can the winner of golden ticket draw decide to go BTC or the Lambo

Golden Ticket, the Lambo one ends in 13 minutes it says.   The tickets really arent much and you got to be in it to win it so added some, slight as my chances might be it would be some nice news in the midst of gloomy 2020 we having.
Interest payable on the winning balance would be about 1 Bitcoin a year I think, not bad for doing nothing with it.    Anyone who bet half a bitcoin during the contest would now have over 100 tickets I think, does that include setting really favourable odds.

Couple Lambo vids as consolation if you happen not to win: Dude makes the case for the Gallardo (4WD) over the Huracan which is arguable tbh.   Fastest speed in a rental Lamborghini.

The big question really for the long term is how much does this virus mutate  ?  If catching it previously is not a defence as is common with the normal cold humans get every year then we are in for a load of trouble, I imagine that road is alot longer then presently anticipated.   If it is just one and done phenomena then its not quite as bad despite the unfortunate lethality ongoing at present.

The whole possibility to a second bump to the curve and how big that might be is what scares me more then the current problem, bad as it is.  The longer term is the bigger worry because it cant be dodged forever, we dont know the full picture yet.   Maybe we get a vaccine and this enables human populations to perfectly counter this threat just like we have bubonic plague occur naturally every year but we also understand and can counter it now, Im not wanting to presume any negative just thats my concern over the unknowns.   Its also wrong to presume (imo) that its not a big deal, most will get past it just fine so whatever will be will be.


BTC approaching 200 DMA at 8000 and theres a slight stop here at 7777 which was previously seen on the early March lows.  Price on 1 hour bars has kept closing above 2 day average since the 25th

Very reasonable, timeless advice is buy the rumour sell the news.   This is a certain protocol change but it has that dynamic I think, the speculation is how market responds to block reward change.   My own simple take is that any reaction is more like year to year not anything immediate, accumulate not react in actual supply and demand.   So the POV of OP article is quite fair.

Right this moment, price is staying above 2 day average which should be marked as very strong action while it is maintained.    A bigger deal is the weekly movement, with 7400 the rough week average, right above us is the 200 day average and I would guess we circle this for this month end.   So possibly we can return to 7400 having reached the 8000 mark, if people take profits that is.

The Tesla idea I do like in theory but in terms of brand and publicity, its a far less established brand.   As this is a global campaign with a reach required in countries that have no regular conventential advertising possibly in their area, its not a given that everyone knows about Tesla and has the respect that Lamborghini has earnt over many decades.   It is the classic rival to Ferrari after all, Tesla is exciting as something new and I like it as a tech thing but I do think there is a bias in their appeal to western countries where as petrol still allows you to go anywhere at all.   Lambo is the meme for a reason.

Its probably the neatest way to do it but the time factor could be non linear and heavily weighted to estimates beyond 1 week from the end but still allow those confident at the end to add a bet.  That could be useful in increasing the prize because its very possible for BTC to be erratic on a particular day or week at month end.   The time curve could be exponential decay with its sharpest gradient right at the end, its a classic dilemma of access vs fairness, balance.

Fair point, the resistance or support matters because after it holds we have greater confidence in the move there after.   If I have completely a blank sheet then Iam unaware of the significance to the move that just occured.   People are constantly searching for the bottom price to go long at or the best price where we top out for the week the month or year and knowing that with any greater confidence then the next trader is quite valuable.
Up until the significance is proved, its just a maybe and a possible area of interest.   Its hard to place any faith in maybes so its a process of confirmation, I like the multiple time lines that confirm some strength to a move.