If that is true, it shows that there IS indeed a limit to stupidity and that can be found on Wall Street. Shorting bitcoin.  LOL

This is to the Multi Billionaires that sometimes read the forum:

Haha. Multi Billionaires know that they can come to me to buy. Terms of trade similar as with PM trade. But please do not make it sound like there is something criminal going on in your end. I have lost many good deals because I also have rational evaluation of my customers. It is quite normal to buy bitcoins from my Estonian dealership, so please be instructed that the minimum is at least BTC20 and premium over the cheapest exchange 10% or more. Price can be locked in immediately upon receipt of the deposit.

How many times does Bitstamp need to bounce from 0.800 before people realize it's the new floor?   Every bounce (3 so far) adds to the strength of the support, and it is already in the Titanium level, comparable to molecular's left nut.

Buying at 0.800 is better EV than buying at 1.000. From 1 it can go either way, but from 0.800 it always goes up, and the 10% probability not included in "always" is only that it will dip to 0.6 for a few hours. Nothing to be scared of.

Some people are in actual dire straits, lost their houses, etc. Meanwhile we had a nice flash-goxx-crash where pros including me made a nice chunk of money. It is quite ironic, to think of it. I will therefore not go into details, just express my satisfaction of the result of trading.

AnonyMint has accepted the responsibility of compiling the lists of needy people and sending the BTC to them. I will safekeep some of the donations before the recipient is assigned. We have enough money at present and do not want people to give us more, it goes against the principle of P2P helping.

It is quite commendable, considering that a 1990s long-term pro trader like me could only increase the size of total stash by about 3% in the April big crash and 0.6% in the last weekend dip, among others.

Don't read it any deeper than what it is: The distribution of bitcoins, if they are distributed in the same way as total wealth of the world is distributed.

To have the whole picture, we need to know, what % of the total wealth bitcoins represent. A quite long-shot would be that bitcoins are half the world's wealth, ie. valued the same as the Earth. Then you need to sell half of your bitcoins to obtain "your share" of the other wealth.

All in all, I think most that have BTC10,000 now, will only have about BTC1,000-BTC3,000 when it hits the highest value.

So you don't "give a shit" to be among 10,000-30,000 world's richest. Top 100 or top 300 is the way to go. Yes, you seem to be a megalomaniac and a player. I think I could easily adapt to any of the levels, as could most of us.

Of course the nowcomers are 2-3 orders of magnitude behind, but still very well off compared to the ones coming when it's $100/mBTC, and also they have more than the ones who only buy at "2 month's work"/mBTC. Striving to attain the next level in the log chart of bitcoin holdings is very difficult and I am sad that smart people do scams and pump and dumps instead of being satisfied with what they have and living in peace.

Reason I am saying this is that 0.01% of people professionally work as brokers. For all of the rest, it represents a significant diversion of effort from more important things in their life to following the USDBTC rate from a screen, not exactly an improvement in living standards. Furthermore, as a result of this effort, everyone (or perhaps a number tending to 99.9% when duration tends to infinity) loses money.

Calculating future returns based on past successes of pump and dump schemes... Never seen such delusion in my life!

Throw this to my face when you make your BTC300-400.

Technical people have done absolutely horribly in the past in this forum. I don't know of anyone who has made more bitcoins compared to buy&hold over any extended period of time (even 12 months, which does not prove anything really).

Yes - I mean it: I don't know any technical trader who has not lost money, meaning that all his effort has been in vain and harmful, compared to one who just holds.

I would really really buy at any of the prices mentioned in that chart 

China/Bitstamp spread has been negative (China lower) ever since the flashcrash 12 hours ago. So the west has absorbed:

- 71% of the losses (from 1.13->0.85->1.05);
- quite a number of bitcoins sent from China.

It is not usual to have China seriously lower. Usually it's either at about even or higher.

I see the news as neutral/bullish, and this reaction quite convincing. $800 will firmly hold.

wtf even I saw the sarcasm 

Alternative A is utopistic, some people have explained it to me but it was above my understanding. Similar as the Internet is now, compared to the life in the 1980s. The change has been so profound, yet so gentle.

As 100x cleverly pointed out, the expected value (weighted average of the outcomes) does not change significantly whether the zero case is weighed with 3% or 50%. It is much more important that there are realistic scenarios with enough zeros after the significant digits. And based on sound mathematics and economical thinking, this is the case. This drives level-headed investors to take Kelly bets and many more take smaller bets.

This new fiat pushes the prices higher. Compare this to an old thread from last March. Price was about $50 and we run the same thought experiment. We arrived at the conclusion that the EV is $2200 or so. The background was that price had quickly risen 5x after several months of flatlining, so essentially identical to our situation. It was scary to buy more after such a runup, but this analysis was irresistible.

It is self-fulfilling. If 9 months ago Bitcoin was undervalued by 1:44, now it is undervalued by 1:100, 1:300, 1:1000 or so, depending on the weights. If Bitcoin is considered as even more sure bet now than it was then, it is all the more probable that 9 months from now we estimate that the most positive scenarios are the most realistic.

As long as bitcoin price relentlessly rises (and we are already seeing about 50% awareness among general population), everybody is faced with the decision whether to buy or not. Oh, I had so much to talk to you from last night's conversations

Oh noes.... EVERY BTC5k in the world is now valued at $5 MILLION!

(the adventures of a guy ... series)

The BTC5k that Sirius sold in January 2009 is also $5 million dollars now. And the BTC5k that I bought in 2011 is now $5M.

Cheers! 

What are the implications of these, to the distribution of bitcoin wealth to holders of different sizes of holdings?

Is your perspective now the following hours, days, weeks or months?

"Bad news for Bitcoin" as a generalization does not exist, because nothing can stop Bitcoin. It is just a question of the way.

Pls elaborate.

I was about to write concerning this matter. So the answer is the OP in the new thread.

To understand the purchasing power of 1mBTC in the future, one way to do it is to group the possible outcomes into a few scenarios, describe what must happen in order for them to take place, and then assess the probabilities to each of the scenarios.

By multiplying the percentage probabilities with the future values and summing up, we have the weighted average future value ("expected value", EV). We may discount it to present value if we like, however in this model I don't do it but rather assume that the sums measured in dollars represent the purchasing power in today's dollars.

**

A. Money becomes ubiquituous coupled with the proliferation of altcoins (thousands of them, perhaps everybody having his own coin), yet continues to have its functions in value storage, measurement and transactions as much as applicable. The world will be very much different and nobody anywhere will be poor in the sense of not having his basic needs met. In this utopian and hard-to-desribe scenario it does not really matter what the price of mBTC is, and it may have evolved to other forms. At any rate, we can evaluate that mBTC buys minimum $1,000. Dollars have of course been forgotten in this scenario.


B. Bitcoin totally replaces fiat worldwide and becomes the sole reserve currency. Since the valuation of the world is $400T, and most of it is financial assets, which lose their raison d'etre in the non-inflationary Bitcoin-based economy, we can conservatively estimate that the hard monetary stock of bitcoins is worth $100T and thus a mBTC is $5,000. Maybe more, but if more, then it just means that the world will be different than what it is now and conventional valuations (I want a new car!) don't hold, due to the rapidly advancing technology.


C. Bitcoin becomes an important independent world currency or a reserve currency with real bills, moderate fractional reserve, etc. Then it can go to the same value as the stock of world's gold, which is in the same ballpark as the M1 money of USD, EUR or JPY. This would put 1mBTC=$300.


D. Bitcoin's ascent is somehow stopped so that it spends a longer amount of time valued "something in between", not going up, but not losing its potential either. This I don't think can be a permanent situation, but then again - I never believed in 2006 that the fiat money system could be extended for 7 more years (even though there was no Bitcoin then)! Sometimes imbalance persists. A logaritmic midpoint between $1 and $300 (the following target) is $17.


E. Bitcoin fails, resulting in its value going to zero or near zero. It is actually very hard to think of a credible scenario where Bitcoin would do just this But let's have it just as a reminder that it is in beta and also that the world is just becoming so interesting that negative as well as positive things may happen unexpectedly.

**

If all the scenarios receive equal probability of 20%, the future (2015-2020) value of 1mBTC is $1,263.

- Are there possible outcomes that are not groupable to existing scenarios and thus require an additional one?

- Should the percentage probabilities be adjusted and if so, how?