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6141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 14, 2018, 05:14:15 AM
Yeah.  I’m sufficiently cynical right now I’m running a trailing stop.  

Edit:  there goes my stop.  Looks like I’m going to hold a bit of fiat for a few days. 
6142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 14, 2018, 02:04:43 AM





6143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 14, 2018, 01:09:17 AM
LTC on a tear vs BTC on GDAX

Yeah, looks like they couldn't raise BTC's price so making LTC pump. 

Some new tech release.  I think it’s more savaging Bcash than BTC
6144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 10:45:02 PM
Reading this thread becomes so much more efficient when you filter out the beehive of idiots.

6145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 10:32:15 PM
There's already people losing bitcoins from using it too early. This is one of the first losses.

https://twitter.com/rusty_twit/status/953043039701819392

Dood! That is EXACTLY what I was talking about before. Development 101! Test first, then TEST SOME MORE, then pay somebody to hack it for you (if necessary) and THEN release it...  Undecided


They HAVE NOT released it.

Enthusiasts are modding testnet code and going rogue on mainnet, some devs are actually pretty bent about it.

My sense is that everyone testing on mainnet knows it is a risky beta and is fine with losing the funds they are experimenting with.

No Coinbase users were hurt in the filming of this production.
6146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 08:03:11 PM

That's why you have a gap between your top buy and your bottom sell that is 2x your base interval. The gap is where the profit is made.

Admittedly, in my most comprehensive explanation, I explicitly left the reason for such 'as an exercise for the reader'. Perhaps I should have stated it.

lol yeah, I think I skimmed over that part...I get it now

strategy implemented on both the BTC:ETH and BTC:LTC pairs here and working reliably...albeit rather boringly

low risk, low reward, but I am a terrible swing trader so....

If the peg breaks, you will end up on the wrong side of the ledger. Keep that in mind.  It is not a low risk strategy.
6147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 12:40:40 PM
First I have heard of Teechain. Sounds like another LN for BTC? Anyone know anything about it?

https://www.teechain.network
6148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 12:37:31 PM
You can only use Astroglade if you are a professional power bear
6149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 12:15:01 PM
Back to the BF robot videos from yesterday, here's a new one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUyU3lKzoio

To defeat Terminator, apply Astroglide to door handle
6150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 11:16:02 AM
Imagine the souls that would be crushed if it just dropped below 6K right here.

Imagine how much BTC I would have if it dropped to $1k
6151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 11:14:24 AM
What do you call a meditating Doge?

Aware wolf
6152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 10:44:43 AM
TA confirms 1 Doge = 1 Dog

6153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 09:09:52 AM
Hey Jbreher

What sort of a listing fee was paid by Bcash to Coinbase?

Does Brian Armstrong receive a regular payment in Bcash?
6154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 07:18:21 AM
We haven’t broken the downtrend on the weekly, although we are bumping our heads against it.
6155  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 05:23:43 AM
I am told that RSK is still a year away. 
6156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 01:46:18 AM
snip ... more people are borrowing to bet BTC ... snip ... people borrowing to bet BTC ....

... I think I may have found the fundamental problem in the risk analysis logic here?

Borrowing to bet on a limited-issuance, near instantly redeemable, bearer instrument is extreme risk-taking by any measures.

Discussing how fast the bamboo and rice paper building will burn when doused in gasoline is fun but kind of misses the point that there are children playing with matches in the crawl space.


None of this is your grandma’s pension fund.  2X is very different from 100X (instant suicide).   And don’t think the big boys don’t play with exotic instruments.  That’s why we had the GFC. 
6157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 01:34:24 AM
The chart I posted shows almost 4x more people are borrowing to bet that BTC will go up compared to people borrowing to bet that the price will go down.

I use this as a measure of sentiment and view it as bullish. But it can also go badly wrong. If the bears can fight against the tide and force the price downwards, they could start a cascade which would force the bulls out of their positions at a loss and trigger a massive price spike downwards.   

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close. Corporate accounts tend to be short bitcoin.  So this could just mean the underlying mix of players is changing with no change in sentiment. Hard to evaluate without further information.

That may be true, but compare that to a typical stock. The number of short investors is actually never *greater* than 25%. So by that measure, 25% betting that the price of BTC will go down is actually extremely bearish.
But this is crypto. Analogies with the stock market are often misleading and always risky.

The chart indicates a more “normal” ratio is about 1.5:1 for BTC.  But it only goes back about 6 months
6158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 12:55:32 AM
It’s their exchange. They can do whatever they like. 

That said I did a quick google and am seeing conflicting reports about corporate accounts on BFX.  Maybe Elwar can clarify.
6159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2018, 12:40:41 AM
The chart I posted shows almost 4x more people are borrowing to bet that BTC will go up compared to people borrowing to bet that the price will go down.

I use this as a measure of sentiment and view it as bullish. But it can also go badly wrong. If the bears can fight against the tide and force the price downwards, they could start a cascade which would force the bulls out of their positions at a loss and trigger a massive price spike downwards.   

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close. Corporate accounts tend to be short bitcoin.  So this could just mean the underlying mix of players is changing with no change in sentiment. Hard to evaluate without further information.
6160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2018, 10:42:00 PM
Ratio of BFX longs to shorts is at ATH (blue line is longs v shorts).  Longs outnumber shorts 3.7:1


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