Was that $200 last night a correction or the crash? I believe that crashes will become less and less intense the more people involved in bitcoin, so I wouldn't expect to see much more than that at this point.
If $200 is the maximum downside, why is not all the money in the world buying bitcoins just now, and why is anyone selling at any price?  I believe we will see -75% crash again. The one 2 weeks back was -50%. |
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People who have been holding for months and are used to $140/BTC as a "fair price" are probably going to think $1100 a coin is ludicrous when we first arrive at that price. This may induce selling.
If strong support materializes and we stay above $1000, long-term impressions change and long-term holders may re-evaluate their concept of a fair price.
I believe sell pressure is strongest during the hike up. Even if cashflow in begins to taper I expect we can stay in this price range.
Of course, cash in naturally drops during the weekend and we see minor selloffs.
Thank you. In my understanding, people sell in the early stages of the rally (supported by the bitstamp data). Then the ascent of the rally goes steeper, as people who had selling pressure have already sold. February was a great selling month  Now there should be selling, because the price is objectively high, but many delay the selling until bubble has popped, steepening the decline. My analysis draws quite much from the early 2013. If instead 2010-2011 would be used, the ascents are more violent, crashes faster, and the plateaus between ascents happen near the ATH. That was characterized by a relentless influx of new money. It is possible that we are entering in the same kind of phase now, but if that happens, everybody is just so rich anyway that I rather hedge my bets and do comfortably in both scenarios. |
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Why are we assuming that this was a whale and not simply sell pressure that was unsupported by buying action since the fiat system is closed down for the weekend?
Can't you just believe that people are coming in droves? One such came in last month. Now everybody is waiting, counting their coins. If no drove comes, everybody sells, newcomers and old ones alike. I know the magnitude of droves grows on average 1140% per year. It's a lot, but you cannot draw the conclusion that each month the USD flow is bigger than last month. Because it isn't. |
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Rpietila, your analysis is bad and you should feel bad.
I like y'all's style. You're either trying to prove a point and cherry pick your data accordingly, or you're honestly too naive to see that in late 2013 you simply cannot take data from one exchange alone and then draw grand conclusions from it.
Honestly naive sounds better to me. I had just gotten to use Bitstamp instead of gox for the analyses, and now the china thing steals the show. It was not intentional to bias this, and I have not verified the "corrected" figures myself yet either. It is very possible that you are right. I'm too lazy to draw in a nice moving average, but I trust you can see the rough trend yourself: there were indeed two spikes in btc volume compared to which we are somewhat lower now, but not drastically so, and certainly we're not lower in btc volume than in the beginning of the month. In simpler terms: btc volume is stable or slightly going up.
This was not the point. The point was to show that there is markedly less volume in higher prices, compared to lower. It is not the same thing as higher volume over time. The point was to visualize (e.g.) that if only 2% of coins have been traded at over $700, the price level is not yet very established, and will not be supported by buyers if the selling intensifies. Main thing, as is always the case with fast runups, is the lack of support levels. We have one in $400 and the next one in $190-$266. I don't believe we will ever see the latter, but the former is very much a possibility. All this talk about bitcoin "entering mass adoption" and "everybody talking about it" was there in May. Perhaps we now have 10x more substance, but then again the price is 10x higher. And USD volume paints a stronger version of the same picture, as is to be expected with the hugely increased per coin value: two spikes earlier this month, and we're slightly below them now, but overall it's going up.
Every spike in USD volume can be the last. We are multiples higher than in the beginning of the month. I appreciate your willingness to delve into the matter but it does not change my very cautious outlook. As for psychology, when everyone thinks that it is time to buy, the time to buy has just ended. To repeat: by "very cautious" I mean that 80% in bitcoin is warranted but 90-99% is not in these market conditions. If you have less than 80%, then you are actually more bearish than me by your actions.  |
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When the crash comes, I think not many in the forum is buying. After going to $2k and crashing to $1k, would you really buy? Everybody is shitless by then. It is completely at the mercy of the new money then.
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Hey 7 years ago I already thought he's the coolest guy in the universe.
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Anyway, I just don't want to be associated with insulting you, since I never did.
Every time I write, using "you" is funny because it can mean singular, plural or general. In Finnish we have different words for each. No need to apologize. I think the "supporting rpietila" movement has already grown out of proportion, I've received several PM's even |
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The rise is so fast that it just cannot do it exponentially (fixed % every day), it'll have to go parabolic, crash, parabolic, crash.
Our 6.3% per day during November (which oakpacific renamed "stalling") is such fast growth that we will be at $1 million dollars in:
March 21, 2014.
Well I had this kind of logic and prediction last spring, and it is the most famous thing where I have been wrong. (Is there another?)
If that happens, it is called bitcoin singularity. It just eats dollars away - in the end selling bitcoins for dollars becomes such a pain that nobody will do it anymore, and the whole world wants to buy. The endgame is fast, as for practical reasons only real property is accepted. If you want bitcoins, you need to have or produce something actually valuable.
Before that, 6.3% is unstable. It will either go overdrive and crash or stall (which can also be followed by crash, although not necessarily).
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Crash would be a period where it takes several months (2 minimum) to regain the ATH. April took 7 months.
But isn't that the problem? All us old hands know that a "crash" will be a buying opportunity and for that reason the market simply won't crash until even us true believers start saying its crazy. And that won't happen short of $10k. What is your downside target after $10k? |
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I am confused as to why you think AnonyMint's proposed ideas are socialist. If anything they are the antithesis of socialism.
I quoted Marx only to drive home the point that you can start from a valid critique of the current economic system and then end up in
a solution that is far worse then the disease. I see that point did not come across the way I intended it to.
AnonyMint invents problems for Bitcoin that just are not there. The more I have considered the distribution model, the more ingenious it feels. In the beginning I supported a "more equitable" altcoin but then realized that it just cannot be done any other way (or let's say all the proposed alternatives are inferior: the further from Bitcoin, the more inferior). So now I think that: - Bitcoin is doing just fine - The alt would not fly anyway. He has the exact opposite opinion, which I think is unfounded in truth, and that he is actually "butthurt" to have missed the 100x of 2013. Most people here know even less about economics than me, so quoting marx may be a good idea since they don't understand it at all. |
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I also realized that Silvervault's net capital is now 90% BTC, 10% circulated silver.
All the other previously silver companies of mine, same thing.
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The thread has truly deteriorated to be a socialists' lair. I had high hopes for this altcoin in the beginning, but now it seems so obvious that it is going nowhere.. Is there any way to unsubscribe the thread?  |
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I don't know. Its won't be long before I can trade 1 btc for that trillion dollar thingy - I'd give it til Christmas  This. If government could make a 1oz platinum round worth more than it is in free market (about BTC1 currently), surely they would have eradicated poverty by now.. |
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There is a hard cap on how many BTC there is.
As for alts, they are limitless. Soon people will realize that they have to serve a function. Otherwise they are worthless.
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Crash would be a period where it takes several months (2 minimum) to regain the ATH. April took 7 months.
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I know this time can be different. 6/2010-6/2011 saw about 6000x growth. Don't ever sell out, and stop picking on me for selling 20% and buying a castle |
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We also saw this in a big way a few weeks ago when US and Europe "caught" the Chinese bubble pop.
All exchanges did a full -50% from their respective peaks, so with a more trading mindset, it certainly was a tradable flashcrash I would not say that bitcoin overvaluation is a regional trend. If it goes to $2k-$4k before Christmas ( it is on due course to do just that), it will almost certainly crash due to sheer overextension, universally. |
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In conclusion, during November, 49% of the trades happened at prices lower than $500. Thanks for encouraging me to delve into the numbers, I always enjoy some analysis, especially if it makes me a lot more confident on current price levels than I was a few minutes ago. Much appreciated. Do you also have the average price for November trades? |
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