Are you not afraid that you misread the bitcoin market ? In my opinion very few weak hands are left and most of the coins that are held now are bought either before the rally in the end of 2013 or shortly before and after the crash to 150$. That means most of the people are still(surprisingly) or almost in the green, even the people that joined after the November 2013 rally and timed their buys not in an amateurish way. Could it be that bitcoin is too small for such strong macroeconomic effects to have this impact ?
In the end most of the current holders are bulls that value their coins much higher than the current price, at least that is what i assume. Maybe i am naive.
Edit: I am fucking tempted to sell a small portion if it gets up again over 300$, just in case you are correct.
Some diversification doesn't hurt. Even if you lose some BTC, you didn't lose value in dollars which is the real world for now any way. Fighting against ingrained ideological delusion is important for rational investing. Hey I think crypto-currency has a lot of upside, but I am not married to anything like the looney ideologs who hatetard on any injection of alternatives to their to-the-moon psychosis. I try to look rationally at the situation and hedge according to appraisals of probabilities. To your specific point, I doubt anyone has been buying BTC who wasn't doubling down on past mistakes of buying too high. Those who bought $10 or below have their fill and have been diversifying some to buy castles and Ferrari's. The mass media has not been pushing Bitcoin lately. Why would newbies be buying? Newcomers buying for use reasons, e.g. money transfers or to buy goods anonymous, would instead only buy what they need to spend. The greater fools don't buy low, so why would they be rushing in now in a declining market with negative media coverage? The capitulation of the diehards, who finally short at the bottom is how we reach a bottom. I have to see inca cry uncle or disappear, then I know we are at the bottom. CONFIDENCE is all they have. Once that is broken, then we get the stampede towards short. I believe what is happening now is the destruction of all the hatetards. So I am advising those who want to come out the other side. But I could be wrong? (not likely) |
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You all are getting excited because of a 10$ increase ?
The higher it goes, the less margin you need to short it and not get a margin call due to volatility to the upside, before the implosion. Another gift from perma-bull-tards. Note gold also inched higher, but small cap global private assets are still in bearish mode. Again no guarantees. But obviously I feel confident enough that I sold to dollars at $315 all Bitcoin. It's not only risky for those reasons, it's just generally risky to leave Bitcoins on exchanges long term no matter what, at least until a serious exchange like Gemini where you can trust it will not disappear overnight is available. Until then, leaving long term positions opened specially with serious amounts of Bitcoin is simply insane for my taste. Good luck tho, im sure there is big money to be made by taking such risks, but there is also tons of money to be lost, as always. Id rather hold trough it.
Agreed it much safer to sell to dollars. Even if Bitcoin goes up, you didn't lose your dollar value. And the dollar is appreciating.  Trading large positions on margin with a time frame of 'several months' is not a good idea for multiple reasons.
Interest rates will eat away at your money and it is very risky to leave your position open for that long.
I did that calculation for holding 3 months it was roughly 4X leverage if I put up $70 of margin at $315, i.e. 400% potential gains over just selling to dollars. Had I entered the trade at $315, and exited recently in the $260s, that was incredible leverage. I actually was arguing with someone who talked me out of doing the trade. Perhaps I should trust my own instincts, but he was correct that my upside is my coding talent and I shouldn't get defocused. |
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It's not over until the fat lady sings. Some people here will eat their words as usual. We may get another bounce up for a double-top at $320 ($315 realizable trade)?
By borrowing BTC and selling on bitfinex. The leverage you can get is dependent on how much % over your selling price you want to hold a reserve to prevent a margin call.
I almost did it, but decided I have better upside in what I am working on. So it wasn't worth the risk to me (not only unexpected volatility to the upside, also bitfinex solvency or the market price moving faster than bitfinex can execute margin calls), but in your case depending how desperate you are, it might be worth the risk if we bounce up again before declining.
I am fairly certain we will decline, but I can't be sure we won't see prices above $320 and below $400 before going down. Above $400, I would declare myself incorrect and eat the losses.
Some people said you can trade on bitfinex and even sell for $usd without doing KYC as long as you don't withdraw fiat. I didn't want to risk that, because it appears it is a discretionary policy.
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It's not over until the fat lady sings. Some peoplegreater-fool-glossy-eyed-fanboiz here will eat their words as usual. We may get another bounce up for a double-top at $320 ($315 realizable trade)?
By borrowing BTC and selling on bitfinex. The leverage you can get is dependent on how much % over your selling price you want to hold a reserve to prevent a margin call.
I almost did it, but decided I have better upside in what I am working on. So it wasn't worth the risk to me (not only unexpected volatility to the upside, also bitfinex solvency or the market price moving faster than bitfinex can execute margin calls), but in your case depending how desperate you are, it might be worth the risk if we bounce up again before declining.
I am fairly certain we will decline, but I can't be sure we won't see prices above $320 and below $400 before going down. Above $400, I would declare myself incorrect and eat the losses.
Some people said you can trade on bitfinex and even sell for $usd without doing KYC as long as you don't withdraw fiat. I didn't want to risk that, because it appears it is a discretionary policy.
Inca and his ilk, are those inane hatetards who will be licking my a$$ for a few drops of fermented nutrition in the future. But, but, but,....Martin Armstrong!!! lol
The lol will be all mine.  |
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...such as lying. Again you are free to disregard morality in your action...
It is not clear from the wording if you might be thinking I might have lied about something. If anyone has such a concern, please bring it to my attention in public or in private. I don't think I've lied. I can think of some discussions about technologies, developments, and plans that did not complete for lack of response from one side or the other. Perhaps that could be misconstrued to be a lie? |
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It's only because you try to minimize the chance that you don't lose anything. I try to minimize the chance that I don't lose everything at once (enabling risky investments as long as they are moderately intercorrelated).
The way I see it, I had money floating with a gold dealer because I didn't have the time to go Manila yet again to try to get my money. I did it once and he made excuses so what was the point of going there again. He has doled it out little by little over time and I have no idea even what my balance is. So to say that I try to minimize losing anything seems quite strange a judgement to me. I think rather it shows you don't really know my situation that well, which is understandable because I never told you. Rather I think that I minimize is the loss of my time. I loathe to go off traveling some where because I am focusing every moment on research (talking on the forum is one aspect of that), learning, coding. And the most important by now is coding. Perhaps earlier it was those others as some things were not yet entirely clear to me, so coding at that time (was and) would have been premature optimization. For me the castle looks like an enormous time sink. And for what gain? What knowledge or code has changed the world from those meetings at the castle? If it is just for your pure enjoyment and the peace of mind you need to conduct the rest of your life, then correct it is not my place to judge the value that others place on things. Again my point is never mind my ranting on that. It is just with a $million in 2014, I could have entirely changed the world. Probably still will do that in spite of needing to be more judicious about how I allocate the limited monetary capital available to me at the moment. It felt like rich boy having fun while Rome burns. Sorry I don't know what if anything was achieved there. My vision of Europeans is they waste a lot of time on meetings and take vacations and are very good at socialism.  I didn't particularly like when you were telling newbies to buy Bitcoin and HODL at $600. I was fighting against you at that time in your thread and even against you running moderated threads, deleting posts, and even creating a new forum (what was it called crypto something?) with a bunch of dickheads who banned me when I tried to speak freely my thoughts. How can ideas be developed under a Gestapo system. Luckily your effort failed. In your defense, you did get my account reinstated but by that time I had lost all desire to participate. When we talk on the phone we definitely can still feel the humanity and friendship that was (and still is in that setting), but when I read your written ideas I think you've got some wrongheaded ideas about priorities and capital formation. It doesn't mean you owe me anything. You don't. You've helped me in some small ways. I am not unappreciative, but I am just thinking you are not reaching your full potential. It also doesn't mean you haven't offered to invest in my projects, you have. And also I haven't broached any request to you for anything. I guess I am just scratching my head wondering what you are doing. Perhaps it is just a difference in our vocations and relative net worth size at this time. But if I had several $million I would try to have so many programming projects underway. I think perhaps it is just a difference because you are not technical and so the things you can do with your money are limited to non-technical pursuits. But that still doesn't explain telling people to buy and HODL Bitcoin at $600. I understand the reasoning that it will eventually go higher, but you know people can die before that happens. They have needs they need to attend to. It seems reckless ideology has trumped rationality. Edit: I know you have the game you are developing and perhaps that keeps you busy. Frankly I don't think that will change the world, but I have tried to not slander the work of others. I think we both are happy with the fruits of our respective decisions.
I aim to always have the choice to either live in my castle, or move to a hut in the Philippines (barring arrests and other stuff, which can as easily be done on you). Only if my owning a castle puts me at a serious jeopardy in the way of closing the opportunity to move to a hut, then I would need to choose. Now I have both, and live in the castle. Even if they take the castle away, that does not (alone) rob me of the possibility to move to a hut.
I suppose what it is that you always wanted to sit at the head of a long table in a castle. You wanted to be a blue blood. I never had any dreams of that. I want to live in peace in comfort, but not too much excess (just a little). And I want to be able to work on the things that stimulate my mind and drive to succeed. I love to compete. I want to spend every day competing and striving, else relaxing with some animals and friends in some simple comforts. I couldn't even imagine all the time I would lose keeping a castle clean and maintained. Or managing the employees to do it for me. I can't even manage to change my underwear but once every month do I find time to actually take a shower, because the work is so much more interesting to me. The sink on my one rental shack (have to maintain two houses because need two ISPs) is black. There is a spoon there but I can only see its form because it is black too. I think toilet was cleaned 16 months ago. I can't even take a break from working to clean anything, that would be a waste of time in my view. Having an ideological bent against fiat is orthogonal to the timing of when to exit fiat. None of us are going to destroy the fiat system by exiting it early. Investors shouldn't allow their ideology to impact their rationality. A good trader and speculator looks only at the facts.
Fiat is an abomination, and I don't do them, especially if the only motive for doing them is hope to get rich. There are others, such as lying. Again you are free to disregard morality in your action, as much as I uphold mine in my action. I think the two points above summarize that we have genuine differences in thinking. Let's go back to work!  The moralism appears to be immoral to me in my definition of morality. The point for me of moving to dollars is to protect the capital I need to change the world with. If fiat is abomination, then how can I fix the problem if I leave my capital in the shit coin Bitcoin and let it shrink relative to the dollars I need to give to collaborators who need to pay their rent and food in dollars. You are do not care because you have no great purpose for your capital. You've become too rich and spoiled. You've lost your need to fight for things, compete, and strive for the optimum. Even if I did misdefine morality as "the greater good", I don't see anything I have been doing which is counter to that goal. I've tried to align my self-interest to the greater good as well. Again sorry, I didn't really want to pick a fight. I think we are on the same side against evil. Just perhaps trying to get you to think a little bit about the impacts of your decisions on the world and others. Seems you are sort of in a fantasy bubble. |
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Rather than deleting my ranting about, I will just say never mind my frustration. I am just under a lot of stress. Working too many hours and usual frustrations. Compounded by when ever I feel that shit headache from the M.S..
I suppose that is immature. Probably better I delete my user account to force myself to stay focused on doing and not spouting off my mouth.
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I am reasonably confident all Bitcoin will be expropriated ex post facto (past, present, and future trades all recorded for later analysis by the G20).
Do readers remain in their fantasy world? http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35308Well if you ever needed PROOF that gold is not money but rather simply an asset class, all we need do is look at what governments are doing. They are hunting for anything of value. We are likely going to see a migration of assets from Europe to the USA as took place prior and during World War I and World War II. Even Germany is now altering laws under the pretense that they are suddenly concerned about protecting cultural heritage. Under the pretense of updating legislation on the Protection of Cultural Heritage (Cultural Property Protection Act), they are targeting collectors RETROACTIVELY.
Germany’s new proposed legislation is radical and highly destructive. It is going much further than FDR’s confiscation of gold.
... |
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I am reasonably confident all Bitcoin will be expropriated ex post facto (past, present, and future trades all recorded for later analysis by the G20).
Do readers remain in their fantasy world? http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35308Well if you ever needed PROOF that gold is not money but rather simply an asset class, all we need do is look at what governments are doing. They are hunting for anything of value. We are likely going to see a migration of assets from Europe to the USA as took place prior and during World War I and World War II. Even Germany is now altering laws under the pretense that they are suddenly concerned about protecting cultural heritage. Under the pretense of updating legislation on the Protection of Cultural Heritage (Cultural Property Protection Act), they are targeting collectors RETROACTIVELY.
Germany’s new proposed legislation is radical and highly destructive. It is going much further than FDR’s confiscation of gold.
... |
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I am much more interested in practical ways how to make products in digital and real world, which would be free for the end user to utilize, with no monetary payment necessary to use them.
Many things in the Internet are such already. You can use Internet freely (in libraries, etc) and most of the content is free. Even elaborate content such as Facebook, Google etc that cost a lot to maintain, do not charge the masses for the service.
The economic calculation problem, is what Mises said would cause the Soviet Union economy to collapse in a few years (it did, industrial production was at -98% compared to Tsarian times), but prices were reinstated in about 1922-1925, following the example of foreign countries in market economy.
It is likely that clever business models will make an increasing percentage of goods available to the consumers without payment, especially as energy becomes cheaper and even free in the future. To get there, we need to allow the businesses to continue using calculation. Banning money as a unit of account is akin to banning numbers as a tool of mathematics. Surely both economy and mathematics could be done without, but the benefits of such an unnatural move would certainly not outweigh the drawbacks.
Again I agree banning metrics in economics is the same as banning human motivation and trade. Banning metrics in mathematics is to ban all dimensioned domains (spaces) and then we can only reason in terms of abstract concepts and logical relations (well that is if you don't also ban the boolean values of true and false). What we really want to eliminate is the corruption of societies (e.g. socialism, public back stop for usurists, etc) that results from granting centralized authority over the issuance of legal tender. To accomplish that it is not sufficient to create decentralized crypto-currency, because the society can choose to use which ever money benefits the masses the most and the masses are oblivious enough to choose the free gifts of socialism and the NWO. The masses haven't seen a great outlet otherwise because the fixed-capital Industrial Age siphoned capital to the usurists. By enabling a Knowledge Age that can resist the dumb choice of the masses by providing the technology for a reliable and easy-to-use anonymous internet and anonymous currency which can do decentralized payments at any transaction rate and also decentralizing the block chain (so the currency remains decentralized and censorship-proof), then people can start to see an alternative that provides much greater return on investment of time and capital, thus siphoning away value from the NWO which is a eugenics system that will spiral down into the abyss taking down everyone who stays in it (per the Revelation in the Bible). Business models for giving away hardware "free" (in exchange for ways to monetize the asset via advertising as Google is planning to do or stealing energy from the user when they are charging such as the Larry Summers' 21 Inc business model) will be consolidated to the largest players in the market, because the margins are highly dependent on economies-of-scale. In short, this is another usury system and thus will be the property of the NWO and those masses who wish to perish. Investing in this is for people who have no idea how to put their capital to work in the Knowledge Age and thus their talents will be taken from them and given to someone who does. P.S. It looks very likely that all I needed for the past 4 years was a fecal transplant so this Multiple Sclerosis would be cured. Imagine the work I could have accomplished had I not been sick! I didn't know this until just recently and now I am even confirming that when I don't eat, I don't have symptoms, so it is clearly my immune system attacking my leaky gut. But here is the deal. I can't afford to travel to Austria and the cost of the treatment, hotels, etc.. So I have no choice but to slog through my development with this chronic fatigue syndrome. Imagine how $20,000 could change my life and change the future of the world. But fuck people will criticize me as being a loser or a beggar if I mention any thing like this. They can go fuck themselves! I will finish my work even if more slowly than could have been in a world where capitalist weren't entirely fucking clueless about talent and ability. |
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I am much more interested in practical ways how to make products in digital and real world, which would be free for the end user to utilize, with no monetary payment necessary to use them.
Many things in the Internet are such already. You can use Internet freely (in libraries, etc) and most of the content is free. Even elaborate content such as Facebook, Google etc that cost a lot to maintain, do not charge the masses for the service.
The economic calculation problem, is what Mises said would cause the Soviet Union economy to collapse in a few years (it did, industrial production was at -98% compared to Tsarian times), but prices were reinstated in about 1922-1925, following the example of foreign countries in market economy.
It is likely that clever business models will make an increasing percentage of goods available to the consumers without payment, especially as energy becomes cheaper and even free in the future. To get there, we need to allow the businesses to continue using calculation. Banning money as a unit of account is akin to banning numbers as a tool of mathematics. Surely both economy and mathematics could be done without, but the benefits of such an unnatural move would certainly not outweigh the drawbacks.
Again I agree banning metrics in economics is the same as banning human motivation and trade. Banning metrics in mathematics is to ban all dimensioned domains (spaces) and then we can only reason in terms of abstract concepts and logical relations (well that is if you don't also ban the boolean values of true and false). What we really want to eliminate is the corruption of societies (e.g. socialism, public back stop for usurists, etc) that results from granting centralized authority over the issuance of legal tender. To accomplish that it is not sufficient to create decentralized crypto-currency, because the society can choose to use which ever money benefits the masses the most and the masses are oblivious enough to choose the free gifts of socialism and the NWO. The masses haven't seen a great outlet otherwise because the fixed-capital Industrial Age siphoned capital to the usurists. By enabling a Knowledge Age that can resist the dumb choice of the masses by providing the technology for a reliable and easy-to-use anonymous internet and anonymous currency which can do decentralized payments at any transaction rate and also decentralizing the block chain (so the currency remains decentralized and censorship-proof), then people can start to see an alternative that provides much greater return on investment of time and capital, thus siphoning away value from the NWO which is a eugenics system that will spiral down into the abyss taking down everyone who stays in it (per the Revelation in the Bible). Business models for giving away hardware "free" (in exchange for ways to monetize the asset via advertising as Google is planning to do or stealing energy from the user when they are charging such as the Larry Summers' 21 Inc business model) will be consolidated to the largest players in the market, because the margins are highly dependent on economies-of-scale. In short, this is another usury capture system and thus will be the property of the NWO and those masses who wish to perish. Investing in this is for people who have no idea how to put their capital to work in the Knowledge Age and thus their talents will be taken from them and given to someone who does. P.S. It looks very likely that all I needed for the past 4 years was a fecal transplant so this Multiple Sclerosis would be cured. Imagine the work I could have accomplished had I not been sick! I didn't know this until just recently and now I am even confirming that when I don't eat, I don't have symptoms, so it is clearly my immune system attacking my leaky gut. But here is the deal. I can't afford to travel to Austria and the cost of the multi-weeks treatment, hotels, etc. (and I'd need to have a computer there so I could work and no have downtime). So I have no choice but to slog through my development with this chronic fatigue syndrome. Imagine how $20,000 could change my life and change the future of the world. But fuck people will criticize me as being a loser or a beggar if I mention any thing like this. They can go fuck themselves! I will finish my work even if more slowly than could have been in a world where capitalist weren't entirely fucking clueless about talent and ability. |
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But my thinktank group ponders that owning any fixed position asset is going to be an albatross in this coming mad max world. We'd prefer to rent fully developed, unless the purchase price is so low as to be a discardable asset relative to net worth. Might need to discard multiple times in the chaos we are heading into. It is nearly impossible to predict the number of moves a person will need to make to escape various problems coming. We are heading into a Little Ice Age, so all the nordic locations are undesirable. Real estate is a horrendous diversification because it is not an asset, but rather a liability. Property taxes can rise egregiously, the government can force you to make certain improvements, and even you don't own the land (don't have allodial title) rather it is only a privilege granted by the government which can be rescinded. Many governments have expropriated land within various constructs. Having an ideological bent against fiat is orthogonal to the timing of when to exit fiat. None of us are going to destroy the fiat system by exiting it early. Investors shouldn't allow their ideology to impact their rationality. A good trader and speculator looks only at the facts. ... I sleep better holding dollars when Bitcoin is poised to drop to 1/3 to 1/10 of its current value and 1/13 to 1/40 of its all time high, especially when all my expenses are in dollars and pesos (pesos depreciating against the dollar). There is no price manipulation. That is the delusion of the goldbugs. The banksters are creating bubbles which they front run, but they are not manipulating to the downside. Armstrong explained this in great detail numerous times, including his abundance of inside information and the tape recordings he has about their manipulations. He was on the inside of many of the so called manipulations, which were always about creating bubbles to sucker in the greater fools. The market is creating the downside movement which are the exhales from the bubbles and also that we are in a massive deflation. |
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Unless pretty much all humans experience a drastic change in their constitution and way of thinking, luxury goods (of limited supply such as Champagne of a certain brand and a certain year) will always be coveted, valuable, priced, and therefore not free. Same goes for capital goods including land. The Rothschild-led corporatism is a very unequal system but my impression is that the Rothschild-led Soviet communism was an even worse one if environmental damage and sustainable land usage is considered. I would instead go for small farming (one farm producing food for 10-20 families), which was the norm in Old Testament Israel, the 1800s United States, Third Reich, postwar Finland, and still is in many developing countries, Japan, Switzerland, etc.
The return on investment in the Knowledge Age will exponentially trump any physical assets investments. Those fixed-capital Industrial Age assets will wither away in relevance and anyone holding those will become a relative pauper in the Knowledge Age. Holding Bitcoin is not the necessarily the same as investing in the Knowledge Age. I see Bitcoin as a tool of TPTB. I am reasonably confident all Bitcoin will be expropriated ex post facto (past, present, and future trades all recorded for later analysis by the G20). I was pondering today that in the coming totalitarianism, the State(s) may ban CPUs that don't have some embedded back door. Thus hoarding CPUs now might be very lucrative. Or if there would be a way to develop the ability to disable the back doors. Because chip manufacturing foundries are sitting ducks that can't move. The State can compel them to comply. And remember the axis powers are the same bed together. However do note CPUs depreciate quickly given Moore's Law, but Moore's Law would be rescinded the moment all new CPUs are back doored. |
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Anti-money folks have not given an explanation on how to efficiently produce anything absent the price mechanism.
Eg. pencil production consists of 80 phases, from assembling the machines used to mine graphite and fell trees (and the property rights to conduct such activities), to machine the pencils, pack, ship and distribute them for delivery to end customers. The decisions that people make to allocate the resources and intermediate goods, and the finished goods, and the information on supply and demand, are done on monetary terms.
Many supposedly bright minds have said that money (unit of account for financial calculations) can be done away with, but if they don't solve this issue, their world would not have pencils nor anything more complicated than that, because the production and distribution chain would be totally invalidated, and a tribal economy with organic food would result.
Even as we near zero marginal costs things will need to be able to compute energy and supply costs. Assuming we or AI do not discover unbounded renewable energies and materials or a new symbol to covet as as/more/somewhat important. Even if energy was free, knowledge creation would not be. Remember value is not a homophorism to spacetime. Learn about how knowledge creation works. It is fitness landscape of unbounded degrees-of-freedom (entropy). Come on read my essays and really think: http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.htmlhttp://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Demise%20of%20Finance,%20Rise%20of%20Knowledge.htmlThus we will also need a metric for trade and investment. Without such a metric, then humans have no incentive to organize and produce. Note however that reputation is such a metric in a gift economy: http://www.catb.org/esr/writings/magic-cauldron/magic-cauldron-2.htmlBut how do we acknowledge and reward reputation? What I've seen is a lot of bickering and paralysis in open source when there is not a benevolent dictator such as Linus Torvalds at the helm. Thus it appears that society rewards reputation by allocating a leadership role. Thus I conclude the leader will then have capital which he can dole out in the form of whom he accepts pull requests from, gives commit rights to, etc.. This capital is yet another unit of money essentially. But there is another problem. These units of status and status capital are not fungible. In order to transmit value out of projects which are generating too much capital and into projects which need an injection of capital, we may need a fungible unit because the experts in the former may not be applicable to the latter. The generative essence point I am making is that fungible money is necessary for the driving the maximum division-of-labor, which is essential to the progression of entropy (which is not reversible overall, although maybe reversible as an illusion in some space per my upthread explanations). I have made these points numerous times, but seems I can't get these concepts to plant in anyone else's brain? |
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Anti-money folks have not given an explanation on how to efficiently produce anything absent the price mechanism.
Eg. pencil production consists of 80 phases, from assembling the machines used to mine graphite and fell trees (and the property rights to conduct such activities), to machine the pencils, pack, ship and distribute them for delivery to end customers. The decisions that people make to allocate the resources and intermediate goods, and the finished goods, and the information on supply and demand, are done on monetary terms.
Many supposedly bright minds have said that money (unit of account for financial calculations) can be done away with, but if they don't solve this issue, their world would not have pencils nor anything more complicated than that, because the production and distribution chain would be totally invalidated, and a tribal economy with organic food would result.
Even as we near zero marginal costs things will need to be able to compute energy and supply costs. Assuming we or AI do not discover unbounded renewable energies and materials or a new symbol to covet as as/more/somewhat important. Even if energy was free, knowledge creation would not be. Remember value is not a homophorism to spacetime. Learn about how knowledge creation works. It is fitness landscape of unbounded degrees-of-freedom (entropy). Come on read my essays and really think: http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.htmlhttp://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Demise%20of%20Finance,%20Rise%20of%20Knowledge.htmlThus we will also need a metric for trade and investment. Without such a metric, then humans have no incentive to organize and produce. Note however that reputation is such a metric in a gift economy: http://www.catb.org/esr/writings/magic-cauldron/magic-cauldron-2.htmlBut how do we acknowledge and reward reputation? What I've seen is a lot of bickering and paralysis in open source when there is not a benevolent dictator such as Linus Torvalds at the helm. Thus it appears that society rewards reputation by allocating a leadership role. Thus I conclude the leader will then have capital which he can dole out in the form of whom he accepts pull requests from, gives commit rights to, etc.. This capital is yet another unit of money essentially. But there is another problem. These units of status and status capital are not fungible. In order to transmit value out of projects which are generating too much capital and into projects which need an injection of capital, we may need a fungible unit because the experts in the former may not be applicable to the latter. The generative essence point I am making is that fungible money is necessary for the driving the maximum division-of-labor, which is essential to the progression of entropy (which is not reversible overall, although maybe reversible as an illusion in some space per my upthread explanations). I have made these points numerous times, but seems I can't get these concepts to plant in anyone else's brain? |
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rpietila, You know already my opinion or concern is that war is coming to the Baltic states and the real estate there might be abandoned. Maybe not. If it is only a decline in value and you can wait it out and use the asset, then I can see your point. But why risk it? I suggested to you before you bought that castle, that war would come and don't do it. But my thinktank group ponders that owning any fixed position asset is going to be an albatross in this coming mad max world. We'd prefer to rent fully developed, unless the purchase price is so low as to be a discardable asset relative to net worth. Might need to discard multiple times in the chaos we are heading into. It is nearly impossible to predict the number of moves a person will need to make to escape various problems coming. We are heading into a Little Ice Age, so the nordic locations are probably undesirable (although Eskimos might disagree). Real estate is a horrendous diversification because it is not an asset, but rather a liability. Property taxes can rise egregiously, the government can force you to make certain improvements, and even you don't own the land (don't have allodial title) rather it is only a privilege granted by the government which can be rescinded. Many governments have expropriated land within various constructs. Having an ideological bent against fiat is orthogonal to the timing of when to exit fiat. None of us are going to destroy the fiat system by exiting it early. Investors shouldn't allow their ideology to impact their rationality. A good trader and speculator looks only at the facts. Seems to me you are very desirous of losing your wealth, which is normally what happens to individuals when they gain a large amount of wealth too quickly and are not knowledgeable about how to manage wealth, e.g. our friend Jason Hommel. I sleep better holding dollars when Bitcoin is poised to drop to 1/3 to 1/10 of its current value and 1/13 to 1/40 of its all time high, especially when all my expenses are in dollars and pesos (pesos depreciating against the dollar). There is no price manipulation. That is the delusion of the goldbugs. The banksters are creating bubbles which they front run, but they are not manipulating to the downside. Armstrong explained this in great detail numerous times, including his abundance of inside information and the tape recordings he has about their manipulations. He was on the inside of many of the so called manipulations, which were always about creating bubbles to sucker in the greater fools. The market is creating the downside movement which are the exhales from the bubbles and also that we are in a massive deflation. P.S. For me it has been a crying shame to see a $million wasted when Bitcoin is not anonymous, Monero is not sufficient, the anonymity networks of the internet are not adequate. With that amount of capital, you could have changed the world. You should have come to the Philippines to make sure your capital was working in the most efficient way possible. But alas, you don't yet see me as that important. And that is fine. You are entitled to manage your capital as you see fit. If you can find developers who can accomplish great things with your capital then by all means please do. I understand you still need a place to live and hold meetings etc, but I see that all pretty much a total waste of time and capital. We will soon see if I was correct or not. You say you are so busy, but what real value has been created from all that? Of course at this moment the same criticism could be leveled against me, except I haven't expended much monetary capital at all (and I do have something shocking to drop on the world very soon), yet immense amounts of knowledge capital have been invested. A counter point is how difficult it is to actually allocate capital for developmental projects. Sheesh it has cost me a month just trying to find a qualified programmer and mathematician. Albeit I don't have enough funds to attract someone of the caliber that Google would hire for $200,000 annually. I am not envious of judging others. Better perhaps if I said nothing. But maybe I can teach. I try. And I hope people are not offended. And if ever someone can convince me that my analysis is wrong, I am listening. I am not closed minded. I am not really judging, rather just analyzing. |
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Macgsa provided convincingly probabilistic evidence. I linked to it. You replied to the reply about it. Why can't you read it? The odds of him being wrong are akin to winning the lottery, unless we've missed something in the analysis.
I read it. I just wanted your personal demonstration or some exemples you had in mind as I value your insight a lot. I don't have time. When I do quantitative work, I don't want to look too sloppy. Sorry. I am coding. I think I've said enough. Good luck to all. Edit: you are asking for investigative journalism. I don't have the resources to go researching that right now. Look what happened to Gary Webb. Edit#2: if you demand everything in life to proven beyond any doubt and you can't reason with fuzzy logic to clearly see the motives, then you will forever be a slave to TPTB, because they design their methods and protection systems to make sure you can't have the "proof" you want. Remember the Proverbs, "Do not be surety to another", "Do not make promises, for that makes you responsible for the future (do you think you are God?)". Those who want absolute surety here on earth, get absolute slavery. |
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personally i believe this is the extreme oversold price we are at today... and it is a buying period RIGHT now. It hit my target and started to range... now just waiting for LTC to give the clear.. LTC represents ALTs as I believe most good ALTS shoudl rise this time with BTC
Oversold relative to what? Relative to the egregiously overbought $1000 price (where the insiders cashed out with 10,000% gains, leaving the fools holding the bag as usual) when shorting wasn't possible and Bitcoin was plastered on every mass media front page because TPTB want to move us to digital money and eliminate cash. Oversold can be measured by the despair amongst those who bought Bitcoin in 2013 and later. Once they hate Bitcoin and never want to buy it again, then it will be oversold (so the insiders can reacquire positions for the next greater fool bull run). Speculative investing is all about CONFIDENCE. Measure everything relative to that. An expert investor is cold as stone when he speaks. No emotion. No BS. Just the reality of investing. |
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Macgsa provided convincingly probabilistic evidence. I linked to it. You replied to the reply about it. Why can't you read it? The odds of him being wrong are akin to winning the lottery, unless we've missed something in the analysis.
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BTW, I program (in the past not for over a decade now) in Assembler, Fortan, Pascal, RPGII, QB, VB, C, C++ and C# as well as uncountable scripting languages over the years.
But we need coders. And not the new guys who believe Node.js is the shit. We need the old guys who really know how to code. Similar to me not coding much from 2002 until recently. At least I upgraded my skills to new languages during that period, and now I am coding again at age 50. I tried also to become a passive investor and realized that is not my #1 talent. |
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