6.3% per day over the last 27 days is rapid, but it is not blowoff.

We actually did hit my blowoff trigger event Monday last week, that is why I sold. The price later corrected down -50% (in all exchanges but different times), but it was not yet the beginning of a prolonged cooling period.

I highly doubt that the next one will be a false alarm. It is possible that we go to $2k or $3k before the crash, but remember that with the current ascent (6.3% over X days and then 60% over the final 3 days), we will hit:

$2,000 in Dec 4th

$3,000 in Dec 11th

$4,000 in Dec 15th.

So:

1. Either we will have to slow down and have a sideways correction (which can possibly result in a crash when people realize that the rise has stopped and they are sitting on huge gains several times the ATH of one month ago, and technical indicators are going sour etcetc. somebody pulls the trigger first: manipulators, China, shorters, whales, traders, panickers, SSS subscribers; but buyers will not pick up because coins at $1,000 are not cheap and even if they were, it takes such a number of dollars to absorb them at these levels that it just does not happen)

2. Or we continue this "stalling" with 6.3% daily ascent until we hit either $2k, $3k or $4k before Christmas, and then crash legendarily to sub-$1,000 when all the forces outlined in (1.) - and then some - conflate.

Humankind's greatest disability is the lack of understanding of exponential function.

Oh how sweet it would be seeing $300 again... 

I think it's the last phase before: "...then you win". Oh well 

Hmm... this is indeed possible. Again from my own experience, I started to accumulate more of them on top of my previous holdings, when the price had risen significantly early this year, I made for example a BTC2,000 purchase when the price was already at $70. Then I sold very little at >200 and bought very much at <100, and afterwards.

In dollar terms this previously large holder therefore contributed a lot towards the rise.

Now I have decided that I have enough. So I have a diversification schedule that aims to keep BTC at 80% of portfolio. If I have less, I am "short" and positioned to buy back in the event of crash. If I have more, I am waiting for an opportune time to sell some. For me, an opportune time came 2 weeks ago when China was at 45% premium. No matter where the price goes from here, I am fine.

But the thing is that because I am already unloading my bitcoins, does not mean that everybody should be. There are a lot of people who are as rich (or richer) than I am, and not nearly as loaded with bitcoins. For them, this current runup may be a good opportunity to buy more, despite that the price is much higher than it was only 2 months ago.

At any rate, if price goes up quickly, it makes sellers hesitant to sell, buyers even more anxious to buy, the price go up even more quickly, and when it has gone to parabolic (defined by roughly 50-100% increase in 72 hours), it will crash. There is no going around this.

If we consider all the elements of the physical world. There are 100 of them (about as many as the alts) yet one, gold, accounts for 90% of their recoverable aggregate value, and silver is 90% of the rest.

Perhaps the litecoin advocates were right after all...

1. No big difference.

2. It is not an imo case, if data is available. In spring the top was 20.0x the previous base, now we are 17.6x.

1/4 would be 5x. If spring repeats itself, we will see $1,300 intraday. If base is calculated from $120, it is a different case, then it is $2400 and we are now half way through.

Have you any idea that I actually watch these charts several hours per day, and the reason for the posts is to distill the information for others to learn and act on?

OK, finally I got it. Everybody is just envious because I have $millions and they don't, and I did it in the very coordinated way that never risked the majority of the position, in fact at current prices the remainder of the position is already worth more than the whole of it before divestment.

When you cannot argue against operational excellence, you whine. No whiners will be invited to the inauguration ceremony of my castle, however.

Sorry to be so blunt about it but this seems to be the only realistic explanation for the whinery, am I not right?

This confirms that we are very near the top. Check LTC/BTC ratio in April!

You speak about logic.

1. In what aspects is the current runup different?

2. What data supports your prediction?

HAHAA  

It is not so simple. We also have to consider the fundamentals, fundalo-technicals (the long-term exponential chart), technicals, political and infrastructure situation, forum sentiment etc.

Forum sentiment has gone into full-blind territory (see altcoins for further proof).
Price is 3.5x long-term exponential trend (comp. $210 in April).
Long time no negative action from government (not good).


In my situation I would rather have a million of cash in the bank, a ton of silver in my vault, a castle, and more bitcoins than is the fair share of Estonia.  

That you ridicule me for actually doing something with my life and bitcoins, is a proof that you are blinded. Just wait  

You know what? My friend actually congratulated me   He thought I was doing good. What a jerk - not even mortgaged his dog for bitcoins.  

That depends what you want to prove. I want to raise the awareness of the scenario that we have been going too far too fast, which means that odds are no longer wildly stacked on our favor (as usual), just reasonably stacked. Both the fact that we cross price levels quickly and that the volume is low, testify to the increased risk.

We are at 3.5x the exponential trendline just now. Iirc, the intraday bubble top in April was 4.3x. Especially worrisome thing is that not even one is analyzing these things with any scientific/mathematical fashion except me. The complacency has indeed reached the levels of April, where any newb thinks that he has become a genius by buying in 9 days before, and any cashout by older members is ridiculed.

Imagine the market cap growth from sirius selling BTC5,000 for $5 at the time when it was 5% of the bitcoins (market cap = $100) to the 14 billion of today. That is:

14,000,000,000 % INCREASE. WE ARE ALREADY IN ALPHA CENTAURI; WHO CARES ABOUT THE REMAINING LOCAL BUS TRIP!!!!!! 

Pros don't hope. They adjust the bets so that they win regardless. (If they are in the position to move the markets, they will)

1. It is undeniable that volume has dropped both in BTC and in USD terms. It is not insignificant that it drops by 20%, 30% or so. These are the warning signs that should not be discarded.

2. It would be mathematically better to work on percentages, but I wanted a visually pleasing way + there was a technical reason (truncate to -2 decimals) that I chose this one.

3. Data is public in:
Bitcoincharts.

4. In Bitstamp, Thanksgiving is not a big thing.

5. The lowered volume indicated that there is an overhang on the sell side. Current holders are unwilling to sell as much as is otherwise rational, because they want a better timing. That we went +500% and they are still waiting.

6. USD volume has certainly increased during this period. This proves that there has been much new interest. Since the price has been climbing exponentially (with a daily exponent of 6.3% over 27 days), they have generally invested all of it quite quickly. This can change in a heartbeat.

7. On average, bitcoin's value appreciation works so that during every double, existing holders sell 17%. In November this has definitely not been so. There will have to be a constant exponential increase of new money coming in (via a dysfunctional or non-existent infrastructure), or a crash. Probably both. And several times a year. At this point, anyone who denies the existence of either, is delusional, and deserves the pain.

Data used: Bitstamp's hourly volume weighted average historical trades Nov 1, 00:00 - Nov 30, 09:00.

Total volume during that period: BTC953,782.


During November, 59% of the trades (by BTC volume) happened at prices lower than $500. Conversely, only 9% happened on $900 or higher. The average price for all trades was $517.

November datapoint is here!

517.00

Now, it seems that I accidentally destroyed my calculation sheet   , so perhaps the ones who helped me previously, can recalculate the trendline and redraw the chart. Because the new value is above the previous trendline, it should steepen/raise it ever so slightly.

Compared to previous trendtarget, the November price was 56% ahead, so not exactly cheap.

The current price of $1,144 is 249% ahead, which is an amber light that there is a high probability of a deep crash.

Especially notable is that the $600-$1,200 area has seen (relatively) very little volume, evidenced by the monthly vwa of only $517.

The dip will come when you least expect it. How many truly, honestly expect a dip that could come today, or any day now?

I do. But there are not many. Hopefully tomorrow and the November average will show how ridiculously ahead of the trend it has suddenly become by rising so much in just 1 month.

+1

Yeah, nobody assumes is. So what do you think will happen...