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621  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: December 01, 2023, 05:54:21 PM
Their is no doubt that Real Madrid will not win the gane,  granada is really a struggling team and they have only succeed in having 7 points for the season, Real Madrid playing with granada is just an opportunity for to get more point ahead Barcelona. I believe it will not be an opportunity that Real Madrid will miss. Granada have not been able to achieve any win in their games, they are able to achieve the 7 point they have as a result of draw game.  This will be an easy win for Real Madrid.
Granada has been struggling no doubts but personally I see that as a reason why Real Madrid should be mindful of them because underestimating them will definitely be an edge they will have as they will stop at nothing to utilizing every opportunity that avails itself.

Teams that seam weak like Granada usually try to be very defensive just to make sure they reduce the number of goals they concede before the game ends so underestimating them will only mean setting yourself up for a draw because they will make it really tough by strengthen their defense line but then I'm sure Madrid will get a good number of goal from this match and most likely three points by the end of the game.

Real Madrid isn't really underestimating any team. They have also played a solid game against Napoli. Sometimes they are playing the minimum necessary to win the game and for as long as they win the games, what can anybody say against it? They win their La Liga games and they win their Champions League games despite suffering from some injury drawbacks. Solid is what comes to my mind when I think about Real Madrid. That is the difference between them and Barcelona for the time being.
622  Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned on: December 01, 2023, 05:30:31 PM

The biggest Bitcoin forum has already shot us in the head what's left?

We can't even downgrade this forum to a platform for cooking recipes as now everybody here will be under suspicion for using code language:

623  Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned on: December 01, 2023, 05:16:40 PM
There is a high chance that account FIODNederland is legit because: The account was created 2.5 hours before fiod.nl published this article, and posted about it 6 minutes after publication. [Quote from archived post, posted by LoyceV]

and theymos cashed their copper membership fee  Roll Eyes



Just came across this post and now I wonder who would put up that post. I mean the timing that Synchronice mentioned is very interesting, the account being set up as a Copper Member is very interesting, and the likelihood that countless of accounts here work on behalf government agencies is quite high, isn't it? Tongue
624  Local / Altcoins (Deutsch) / Re: welche bountys signaturen lohnen sich am meisten??? on: December 01, 2023, 12:40:57 PM
~
bald sind wieder die casinos die renner unter den kampagnen Wink

...und das sind dann evtl die Nächsten die verboten werden, ich kann meine Coins auch dahin schicken und "mixen" wenn ich möchte, solange die kein KYC wollen Smiley


Das glaube ich eher nicht, denn dann wäre es nahezu lächerlich, wenn mittlerweile jeder Fußballklub die dicken Gambling-Wappen auf der Brust trägt und die dann um die Ecke kommen und irgendwelche Signaturkampagnen auf Bitcointalk verbieten. Das wäre dann doch absurd.
625  Other / Meta / Re: Mixers to be banned on: December 01, 2023, 12:37:34 PM
~

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1933#:~:text=Sinbad%20is%20believed%20by%20some,from%20customers%20of%20Atomic%20Wallet.

I think this is quite insightful. It seems it has not yet been seized, but been put on a list for sanctions and everyone interacting with the sanctioned entity is facing massive trouble! Read the whole part about Sinbad.
626  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] BC.Game - Crypto Casino | Sig Campaign | Up to $90/W on: December 01, 2023, 12:15:28 PM
Username:mv1986
Have you placed a sports bet in the last 60 days? Yes
627  Local / Altcoins (Deutsch) / Re: welche bountys signaturen lohnen sich am meisten??? on: December 01, 2023, 12:02:08 PM
Schlechte News für viele hier im DACH Bereich da ja einige Mixer bewerben:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5476162.0

Die fetten Jahre mit hoher Bezahlung sind dann erstmal wieder vorbei, sehr schade!

Das ist echt ein dicker Hammer und jeder, der hier das 1 mal 1 beherrscht, kann sich vorstellen warum das gepostet wurde in dem zitierten Link. Da wird es eine Kontaktaufnahme gegeben haben von höchster Stelle. Es gab hier und da schon Themen in der Vergangenheit, wie beispielsweise mit Daten der Nutzer hier umgegangen wird hinsichtlich Subpoena und so. Ich glaube, da hat es jetzt einen Austausch gegeben, der Richtung "kurz vor 12" zu deuten ist.

Edit: Auch die Frist, die kommt mir nicht so ganz wahllos vor. Die passt schon sehr gut zu "kurz vor 12". So nach dem Motto: "Wenn da ab 1. Januar nicht alles aufgeräumt ist, dann werden wir aufräumen"
628  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: November 30, 2023, 11:51:24 PM
I am having more confidence on Bayern Leverkusen to win the Bundesliga title this season because they look more competent and serious than Bayern Munich and Dortmund.
For now yes it looks like that Leverkusen and Bayern Munich will make the race for title but there are so many games there can change a lot.
Maybe Dortmund will join the race at some stage when playing better hopefully at some stage.
I still believe that making that comeback in the second half of the season.

Dortmund has the same issue this season as they had last season and when you see how they are doing compared to any team from the top five, for me they are the weakest. They have had some extremely questionable wins, which put them into the position they are now in, but it also makes it most likely for them to be out of luck at some point. Leverkusen and Bayern have in most cases somehow dominated the games. The same isn't true for Dortmund. Even Bayern looks shaky in some games, but they have this almost built in guarantee that they can start winning games if they have to. The drama created around them doesn't always reflect how they are playing relative to their competitors. Dortmund has had this one streak now that I think also saved Terzic' job. I think there were some mind games going on behind the scenes already.
629  Economy / Speculation / Re: If bitcoin will accepted worldwide for legal then price rising $100k?? on: November 30, 2023, 11:40:08 PM

If we do consider on how many % of the current population now do knows about Bitcoin or crypto then we can really say that there's still soo much room to grow on which means reaching or breaking 100k would really be just a piece of cake on which on the time that we do able to reach out that kind of situation then 100k would really be just that a small number. This is why it would really be that better that you should really be that
wise on taking up position while the price is really that low.Also, its not really that bad to take some entries now considering the price is still low, not that much or everybody could be able to do so considering that the price is really high but we know that we can buy in fractions.

Acceptance and adoption would really be the key for the price would really be going upward but we know that there's no assurance that we would be going into that price
but at least we are really that seeing that it does have potential. Lets just see on how things would really be ending up but since we are still a decade
in existence and there's still so much space to grow.

Acceptance yes and usage on a daily basis would also push the price as there is friction in any system, which would have an impact on the supply and demand situation for Bitcoin. But what will give Bitcoin really give a push is the institutional involvement now as some of the products they plan to offer will also require them to hold Bitcoin in reserves. Not all of those products, but there are products that will come with reserve requirements, That is no surprise as a bank could kill itself literally if they don't hold the reserves for a highly volatile asset. Everyone knows some of the well-known stories like those of the last financial crisis in 2007. With all these reserves and private savings invested in Bitcoin, the highly liquid part of the Bitcoin supply would shrink. Since it is safe to say that over time more people will find out about Bitcoin and use it, all these removals from daily circulation will have an impact on the price.
630  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Bundesliga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024 on: November 30, 2023, 11:11:36 PM
not a great round, thought about draws on Union Berlin and Mainz, but didn't listen to my gut, and put home wins
but overall, still on podium, which is good, and this round as low points was expected after several good rounds

Leverkusen doesn't stop, does they
will be really interesting over the weekend against Dortmund, it is a home match, pressure to continue winning ways is certainly mounting, and they need a win, will they win


That and Bayern can comfortable watch what the others are doing because Leverkusen plays against Dortmund this week and next week it is Leverkusen - Stuttgart and Dortmund - Leipzig. If Bayern doesn't mess up in their games, the gap could be increased significantly in the upper part of the table before the winter break. Nobody went with Leverkusen as the bonus pick for the first leg of the season, but I hope that Bayern stays behind them anyway.
631  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: November 30, 2023, 10:49:48 PM
Endrick Felipe the Brazilian player from Real Madrid who currently plays for Palmeiras until the summer had a good performance in this team and it seems Real Madrid should be happy to sign a contract with this young talent because again Endrick scored another goal for his team in the game they won with a 4-0 result however Endrick left the field because getting injured but he was the best player of the match.



This transfer is going to draw some attention to it when the time is right. The news that he has been doing well for his club isn't really news because otherwise everybody would be rolling their eyes why Real Madrid paid this massive transfer fee, wouldn't they? I believe that the amount of money can be a burden for a young player like him and I don't know whether so much has ever been paid for any player at his age. But man I am sure everyone will be expecting miracles from him on a daily basis.

Though I think that any team that signed a player at that age for so much money is concerned when injuries are reported. That's the risk that Real Madrid took here unless they have some contractual agreements or insurances that cover such a case.
632  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: November 30, 2023, 10:01:59 PM
Nachdem der Kurs mal wieder einen Punkt gefunden hat, an dem er eher in Richtung Seite tendiert:

Inflation in der Eurozone sinkt deutlich

2,4%. Ist also schon fast im Idealbereich, vielleicht ist es im Dezember schon so weit. In den USA waren es im Oktober 3,2% mit sinkender Tendenz, wenn es auch schon mal 3% waren. Für November gibt es noch keine Schätzung, aber eine alternative Statistik, die personal consumption expenditure (PCE), gibt für November sogar eine Nullinflation an. Das wäre der monatliche Wert, also im Vergleich zum Oktober - der CPI (Verbraucherpreise im Vergleich zum Vorjahr) dürfte also weiter sinken.

Der Bullenmarkt kann also weitergehen (die Kausalität dürfte ja den meisten klar sein: Inflation sinkt -> Zinserwartungen sinken -> riskante Werte wie Bitcoin werden attraktiver).

Ja, die Effekte sind vermutlich den meisten geläufig, aber man schon bestimmte zeitliche Zusammenhänge, die nicht immer so ganz rational verlaufen. Und auch der FED und EZB ist es schon gelungen, einige der größten Finanzinstitute mit ihren Zinskurven auf dem falschen Fuß zu erwischen. Ich glaube aber insgesamt, dass der nächste Run für Bitcoin schon sehr heftig werden könnte, weil wir jetzt ohne jeden Zweifel die größten Spekulanten auf dem Planeten am Start haben und man von vielen schon lange kein negatives Wort mehr gehört hat. Aber grad wenn die ganz großen da an den Markt gehen, können sich wiederum andere Risiken ergeben. Aber die Rezeptur passt schon ganz gut: Weniger negative mediale Grundhaltung (außer natürlich die Geschichten um SBF und CZ und so) + wachsende Infrastruktur/regulatorische "Sicherheit" + fallende Zinsen + Halving.  
633  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io - UFC on ESPN 52 - Multi Master Challenge - (Saturday, 2 December) on: November 30, 2023, 09:27:13 PM
13. Beneil Dariush
12. Bobby Green
11. Deiveson Figueiredo
10. Sean Brady
9. Punahele Soriano
8. Clay Guida
7. Julia Avila
6. Cody Brundage
5. Drakkar Klose
4. Melquizael Costa
3. Rodolfo Bellato
2. Jared Gooden
1. Veronica Hardy

NOT go the Full Distance 8
634  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io 🥊 Garcia vs Duarte 🥊 (Saturday, 2 December) on: November 30, 2023, 09:26:18 PM
1. Duarte
2. Round 12
3. 2
635  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io ⚽ Newcastle + Southampton + São Paulo ⚽ (Saturday, 2 December) on: November 30, 2023, 09:21:19 PM
Game 1:  44, 25'
Game 2:  44, 25'
Game 3:  44, 25'
636  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - 2nd Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: November 30, 2023, 09:07:57 PM
vfl osnabrück has found a new coach. Uwe Koschinat will be in charge of training the osnabück team with immediate effect. a good omen?
Uwe Koschinat was relegated to the 3rd Bundesliga last season with armina bielefeld

Koschinat is not an inexperienced coach. Indeed, he did not manage to keep Bielefeld in Bundesliga 2. But you also have to bear in mind that he only had 11 matchdays to save Bielefeld. And in Osnabrück there are still 20 matchdays left. Before Bielefeld he was coach in Saarbrücken, Sandhausen and 7 years at Fortuna Köln. Nevertheless, it will not be easy until the winter break. They still have to play against Schalke, Hertha Berlin (both away) and at home against St Pauli. They will have to change a lot during the winter break.






Yes and I remember the talk about Schalke took place a few weeks ago, not sure who exactly it was who said that Schalke may have good chances to come back quickly from this, but these last two losses sealed the deal for them in a negative way. There is no more reason to talk about promotion into the 1. Bundesliga, but I believe that they have some severe problems within the club which will take them down for many games. It is hard to believe they would really fight against relegation, but they are conceding about 2.5 goals on average per game. It is annoying for a coach to stop problems in the defense if they are so bad.

637  Local / Altcoins (Deutsch) / Re: welche bountys signaturen lohnen sich am meisten??? on: November 30, 2023, 08:49:45 PM
Ich könnte mir vorstellen, dass die Sinbad Kampagne da vielleicht schon noch ein Nachspiel haben wird, zumindest hat mich Binance heute folgendes gefragt:

Grundsätzlich würde ich mir da erstmal keinen Kopf machen, das Bewerben von Mixern ist nicht verboten und das Seizing war definitiv nach deiner Einzahlung bei Binance. Ich würd da aber an deiner Stelle mit offenen Karten spielen und klar sagen was Sache ist.
Ich nehme aber mal nicht an, dass du die Binance-Adresse als Auszahlungsadresse in der Kampagne verwendet hast, oder? Dh. Binance hat hier über eine Chainanalyse festgestellt, dass du Einzahlungen über die Escrow-Adresse erhalten hast?

Doch, tatsächlich hatte ich damals Binance als Auszahladresse genutzt. Allerdings bin ich inzwischen ja auch schon gut 3 Monate raus aus der Kampagne.
Hab die Funds erstmal abgezogen, nicht dass da noch was eingefroren wird.
Sorgen mache ich mir da aber auch nicht wirklich, selbst wenn ich die auszahlungen zurückzahlen müsste würde mich das von der Summe her ja auch nicht unbedingt umhauen...

Ich musste grad erstmal den Press Release ausfindig machen, weil ich mich daran erinnere, dass auch mal ein Projekt offline gegangen ist und dann diese Website gefaked wurde und das einfach nur ein Exitscam war, aber hier ist es tatsächlich so. Sind ein paar interessante Infos zu lesen, aber ich frage mich über einen wie langen Zeitraum sie schon dran waren und wie sie möglicherweise infiltriert haben.

In Bezug auf persönliche Verbindungen zu nem Mixing Service glaube ich, dass die sich um die ganz kleinen Fische in aller Regel nicht kümmern. Das heißt aber nicht, dass das niemals kommen wird. Bzgl. der Werbung für Mixer durch Signaturkampagnen und auch die Einnahmen daraus glaube ich nicht, dass da was kommt. Es sind halt zwei verschiedene Paar Schuhe, ob jemand die Einnahmen grundsätzlich verschweigt oder ob man einen Mixer bewirbt.

Wobei ich glaube, dass Turbartuluk da jetzt alles richtig gemacht hat und das abgezogen hat, denn Binance steht ja auch grad voll unter Druck. Könnte dann schon passieren, dass da plötzlich mal alles eingefroren ist.

Aber es wird jetzt wirklich überall attackiert, wie z.B. Cristiano Ronaldo, weil er Binance bewirbt. Ich würde mal vermuten, dass es da mit der rechtlichen Lage auch schwierig werden dürfte, jemanden für eine Signaturkampagne hops zu nehmen. Da müsste schon irgendwie eine Kausalität hergestellt werden zu einem Schaden, der jemandem entstanden ist. Und dann wird es sowieso kompliziert für einen Kläger, weil die Begründung schon abenteuerlich wird. Es wird ja auch kein Banker belangt, der qua Beschäftigung Produkte vertreibt, die nachweislich irgendwann verpuffen oder finanzielle Schäden verursachen.

Einen Mixer betreiben würde ich nicht empfehlen, wenn einem die Freiheit lieb ist, denn wenn man ehrlich ist, man könnte da vermutlich nie garantieren, dass da nicht auch illegale Gelder durchrauschen.

638  Local / Deutsch (German) / Re: ⚽Bitcointalk Bundesliga Tippspiel 2023/2024 sponsored by sportsbet.io⚽ on: November 30, 2023, 07:34:45 PM

OK. Danke. Diesmal hätte ich es echt vergessen. Aber nun ist alles paletti.Mal schauen ob die Bayern den Berlinern ein Fünfer Pack einschenken werden.
Die konnten sich ja gestern schonen weil eh schon qualifiziert. Anhand des Spieltages könnte sogar ein Wechsel ganz oben in der Tabelle möglich sein.
Oder hat Vizekusen echt einen Lauf der weitergeht ? Was sagte Franz einst: Schaun mer mal  Grin

Die Meldungen sind auch bei mir angekommen und ich bin jetzt auf Nummer sicher gegangen, weil noch nicht ganz klar ist wie das Wochenende verläuft.

Aber dieses Wochenende wartet Gott sei Dank mal wieder ein gutes Spiel auf uns mit Leverkusen - Dortmund und ja, was soll man sagen, also dass Dortmund gegen AC Mailand so gewinnt, hätte ich nicht gedacht. Die Statistiken waren auch leicht auf der Seite der Mailänder zu verbuchen, aber Dortmund hat am Ende mehr draus gemacht. Schwierig zu sagen, ob sie mit einem blauen Auge auch gegen Leverkusen eine Niederlage vermeiden können, denn ich schätze Leverkusen schon stärker ein. Aber gut, so einige Ergebnisse waren sowieso recht wirr auch international.
639  Economy / Services / Re: Crypto Mixing Platform 🔥 [banned mixer] Signature Campaign 🔥 $7/Post Reward 💪🏻 on: November 27, 2023, 02:16:50 PM
Forum rank: Legendary
 1st choice of interested payroll:  Legendary
 2nd choice of interested payroll: Hero Member
 Merit earned in the last 120 days: 174
 Bech32 address: bc1ql74r3yk2ff8swhe02u3fjt3vzew37fl8htje97
640  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Lotteries and possibility vs. probability on: November 24, 2023, 05:55:26 PM
I have recently read an interesting essay on this topic, but it was already explained it to me a few years ago.

The thesis would consist that, although the probability of winning classical lotteries is near zero (typically between 0.0000007% in the case of Euromillions and 0.000003% in the case of national lotteries), people is willing to pay an excessive overprice because they are buying the right to dream about the possibility of winning.

Although there are extreme cases that get addicted to lotteries, this is quite uncommon if I'm not wrong, because, if you are not paying for the probability but for the possibility, a bet of 1 USD is enough to buy said possibility.

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?



I think you have outlined a very interesting thought-provoking approach to lotteries here. Buying the possibility instead of the probability. I would have to think a bit more about it, but what came immediately to my mind was the question for evidence that poor people play the lottery more than the rich people.

"Why do the poor spend more on lottery tickets than their wealthier and better educated peers?"

Since states know this, these guys argue that "In our opinion, states should not be in the business of extracting wealth from poor people..."

and I think they are right. The good part is that since more poor people play the lottery, the probability that a poor person becomes rich is high. The bad part is, the certainty that there is a redistribution of wealth from low-income households to higher income households due to the fees and taxes raised on lottery stakes and winnings (depending on where you live/play). I didn't say high income, but higher income as there is a negative correlation gradually increasing between household income and amount spent on lottery tickets.

People who are poor don't neglect mathematics because they are also stupid. But intuitively it makes more sense for them to cling to any possibility that can be maintained with the lowest resources possible. It still doesn't make sense because the money spent could probably change their lives in more impactful ways if smartly saved over a long period of time, but time is also a discount factor for their subjective perception. Telling someone who is poor to save for 40 years to change the situation doesn't sound quite appealing.

The possibility to finally be able to pay all the bills forever on time and afford luxury items that are otherwise impossible forever, outweighs any rational approach to statistics. It is similar to mental accounting, which is more of a psychological thing and not the absence of mathematical skills.
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