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We may get another bounce up for a double-top at $320 ($315 realizable trade)?
By borrowing BTC and selling on bitfinex. The leverage you can get is dependent on how much % over your selling price you want to hold a reserve to prevent a margin call.
I almost did it, but decided I have better upside in what I am working on. So it wasn't worth the risk to me (not only unexpected volatility to the upside, also bitfinex solvency or the market price moving faster than bitfinex can execute margin calls), but in your case depending how desperate you are, it might be worth the risk if we bounce up again before declining.
I am fairly certain we will decline, but I can't be sure we won't see prices above $320 and below $400 before going down. Above $400, I would declare myself incorrect and eat the losses.
Some people said you can trade on bitfinex and even sell for $usd without doing KYC as long as you don't withdraw fiat. I didn't want to risk that, because it appears it is a discretionary policy.
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@TPTBNW - I finally figured you out - you are an optimist!
Correct. So many people thought I was spreading doom assuming I was pessimist, when in fact my goal was to wake people up and generate the demand for solutions. I stay busy on finding a solution to anything that threatens me, including Multiple Sclerosis. Some background information re China: Prof Steve Keen expects a crash in China within the next two years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKy6_yy3C3U“This is the talk I gave at the FT/Alphaville conference in London, covering why we crashed in 2008" Asia will decline from 2016 to 2020. Asia will bottom in 2020 and it will rise while the West will continue spiraling down for decades. But that doesn't mean Asia will a refuge for Westerners. I believe the Asian Union will enforce our home country's expropriation on us. Non-asian men can not obtain citizenship in Asia (except Cambodia but I believe these will be revoked later). I would have thought that Martin Armstrong, after what he has been
through, would have a better insight into our future. He seems to believe
that if socialism is eliminated all will be well. It looks to me that he
may need to take another look at the output from his models.
He recognizes that. He has stated nothing will be a permanent solution. He is just trying to find the least painful way forward. (but imo his "solutions" are all wrong) http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33825COMMENT: ...The Founding Fathers put restrictions in place to shackle government, but that didn’t seem to work for very long either. How long would it be before the 5% cap is moved to 7%, 10%, then 12%? Or they could simply change the calculation of GDP to boost their ability to spend.
The income tax was originally touted as only a tax on the “rich” or the top 1%. Now here we are with the average American having at least a third of their income confiscated and consumed by unproductive bureaucrats. Nothing ever changes.
REPLY: We are talking about a palatable solution, not a revolution. Ideally, you are correct. We should eliminate career politicians. But we must comprehend, they would never eliminate their own jobs. The best we can hope for is that the older ones will vote to end career politicians, imposing term limits on their way out the door. So how do we save our future without revolution and bloodshed?
The solution presented is one that assumes there are no benevolent politicians, but ones who would vote for something that makes the basic changes we need without driving a stake through their own hearts. So this is by no means the PERFECT solution, only a palatable one. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34699The only way to prevent this type of system was to adopt what the Founding Fathers did in the USA – two-year terms for Congress – because there was no pay and they met only for a few weeks each year. That was closer to a citizen government. The mistake was this should have been hard-coded into the Constitution for once they tasted power they began to pay themselves, becoming career politicians. Jefferson agreed to Hamilton’s proposal of a national debt, provided it was paid-off. This was actually accomplished, as illustrated above. You can see there was no national debt and there was no direct taxation (Income Tax) until 1913.
To solve the problem, there should be NO career politicians and the government should be barred from borrowing money. Those are the key issues. Claiming to make a gold standard or some other nonsense to make “sound” money is pointless. You cannot create sound money with taxes and borrowing intact. We had a gold standard and that failed because politicians borrowed and spent more than there was when gold was fixed at $35. Therefore, a gold standard will always flop because you are trying to use that as a restraint upon government. Deal with the problem directly, for indirect means will never succeed. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/24607There is no single form of government that will ever be perfect. Whatever its form, government will self-corrupt and both sides will fight between the people and government perhaps eternally. The best form of government for brief periods of time are benevolent dictators, monarchs, or emperors, such as Julian II, who even decreed that whatever laws he passed must also apply to himself. Such individuals are rare indeed and once they are gone, the system will revert back to its corrupt state. |
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I also was directed to his site through a thread on this forum. The guy seems to speak a lot of truth and uses hard facts and historical trends to make predictions. One things that kind of sounded a little far out was that his computer model that he uses to make predictions cost "hundreds of millions" to put together. I'm not sure where that would come from.
Collecting the hard data since antiquity. |
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Professor Michael Pettis's (China expert) response, and my counter-points: Michael, thank you for sharing your thoughts. I admire so much your willingness to discuss openly in your blog. Two counter points without claiming you are "wrong", because I am not sure any of us have all the requisite data.
1. The article claimed or implied that SOEs were claiming higher net profits (at least after taxation).
2. Until we factor in the reversal in the "wealth effect" (Δmarket cap ≠ Δmonetary capital invested) due to bursting of debt and speculative bubbles, we can't account for what portion of the GDP is not real. The large capitalists can position their power and monetary wealth (two different forms of wealth) such that it sustains across such corrections. In other words, the masses can be running around like hamsters on a wheel, going effectively no where while the large capitalists siphon off all the power. |
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Received the following information in email from the embassy in Manila. Freudian slip? THE EMBASSY OF THE UNITED STATES IS TRANSMITTING THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION THROUGH
THE EMBASSY WARDEN SYSTEM AS A PUBLIC SERVICE TO AMERICAN CITIZENS IN THE
PHILIPPINES. PLEASE DISSEMINATE THIS MESSAGE TO ALL U.S. CITIZENS IN YOUR
ORGANIZATION OR NEIGHBORHOOD. war·den ˈwôrd noun a person responsible for the supervision of a particular place or thing or for ensuring that regulations associated with it are obeyed. "the warden of a local nature reserve" NORTH AMERICAN the head official in charge of a prison.
Those reading Armstrong's blog read the following already. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34287Here are the new laws in Spain:
1. If you photograph security personnel and then share these images on social media: up to €30.000 fine (particularly if photo exposes violence used against a member of the public). This fine could increase depending on the number of Instagram or social media followers you have.
2. Tweet or retweet information or the “location of an organized protest” can now be interpreted as an act of terrorism as it incites others to “commit a crime” (now that “demonstrating” in many ways has become a crime). Sound “1984”-ish? Read about Orwell and his time in Spain.
3. Snowden-like whistle blowing is now defined as an act of terrorism. If you write for a local publication, be careful what you print, whom you speak to, and whether the government is listening.
4. Visiting or consulting terrorist websites – even for investigative purposes – can be interpreted as an act of terrorism. Make sure you use “Tor” browser, reject cookies, and don’t allow pop-ups. Not to mention, don’t post it on your Facebook timeline!
5. Be careful with the royal jokes! Any satirical comment against the royal family is a new crime “against the Crown”. For example, “What did Leticia and the Bishop have to say after they ––“ (SORRY CENSORED).
6. No more hassling elected members of the government or local authorities – even if they say one thing in order to be elected, but then go and do the exact opposite. Confronting them about this hypocritical behavior. Even if you see them in the street chatting to a street cleaner, dining at their favorite expensive restaurant, or having their shoes shined by that physics graduate who cannot find a decent job in the country, hassling them about their behavior is now a criminal offence.
7. Has your local river been so polluted by that plastic factory along the edge that all life has extinguished? Well, tough! Greenpeace or similar protests are now finable from €601–€30.000.
8. Protests in a spontaneous way outside Parliament are now illegal. For example if Parliament passes a hugely unpopular bill, or are debating something extremely important to you or your community, it is now finable from €601 – €30.000. Tip: Use Google Maps to protest just around the corner – but don’t tweet the location!
9. Obstructing an officer in the course of their business, “resisting arrest”, refusing to leave a demonstration when told, or getting in the way of a swinging baton are all now finable offences from €601 – €30.000.
10. Showing lack of respect to officers of the law is an immediate fine of €100 – €600. Answering back, asking a disrespectful question, making a funny face, showing your bottom to an officer of the law, or telling him/her that their breath reminds you of your dog’s underparts is now, sadly, not advisable.
11. Occupying, squatting, or refusing to leave an office, business, bank or other place until your complaint has been heard as a protest is now a €100 – €600 fine (no more flash mobs).
12. Digital protests: Writing something that could technically “disturb the peace” is a now a crime. Bloggers beware, for no one has yet defined whose peace you could be disturbing. |
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Every 309 years serious shifts come. The end of the severe minimum in the sun spot activity was 1715. Thus 1715+309 = 2024 will be the start of a slide into a new minimum in sun spot activity.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34868 |
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I will delete this post. This is perhaps my last FYI to try to help the fools here. Get out of what? Equities? Money in savings? Should we go all in on crypto and PM? Not trolling. Serious Qs Go dollar cash now. After Oct go dollar, PMs, crypto, and US stock market. On the blowoff peak in 2017, sell dollar, stocks, PMs, and go exclusively crypto. Dollar and stocks will peak in 2017 and into the abyss after. Gold will be heavy taxed (expropriated when you sell it by various means) and there will not be black markets (after 2017), because cash will be phased out (the banks will retire all cash and none will be printed). Anonymous crypto will be your only chance to escape expropriation after 2017. I had already explained why real estate will be destroyed as an investment. |
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This was essentially my attitude to begin with- low interest rate locked with generally high private rents in Ams- you can lock rates for up to 30 years in Holland.
And when prices fall (rents fall) and or property taxes increase (for the EU to handle all the member nation debts which must be consolidated else the EU breaks apart), then you are a debt slave for 30 years. Possibly even debtors prisons (which are coming back, mark my word). |
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Fatca is the seed planted by uncle Sam which will eventually develop into a global tax system, it builds the foundation for them to launch their NWO coin, to streamline tax collection and crush terrorism, tax evasion and underground activities which the masses will be begging for after the global economy melts down.
You sir are very astute and understand what is really going on. |
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I think you need to read a bit more about i2p, its designed for more than just filesharing. its a darknet anonymous network, kind of like onionland but better. i2pbote is a great p2p serverless email network built on top of i2p with encrypted headers. I use it myself and integrated it into my darknet exchange. i2p eepsites support multihoming and easy to use router connection limits to help minimize the ddos issues with tor marketplaces.
saying that i2p wont protect you from the NSA is silly and oversimplifying things. The question to ask is "does i2p remove the link between altcoin spend signatures, blockchain data and address geodata from the clients true IP" the answer is yes it does. Im not sure how to reassure you that i2p is immune to the NSA, but good luck demasking the IP of an anoncoin i2ponly client.
I will respond to your naive ignorance in a detailed white paper. You need to read more and comprehend more technical information than you apparently do. I don't have time to deal with you in a non-technical discussion in a forum. Those who trust my knowledge will understand you are wrong. |
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OT: The multiple sclerosis is progressing on me. I now have permanent nodules of pain on the back of my skull. Another big expense coming (which I can't afford yet), I (desperately) need to travel to another country soon to get a fecal transplant, as this has cured (up to 15 years remission for patients that could barely walk before treatment) at least 5 people with M.S.. The theory is that leaky gut causes the immune system to attack the lining of the digestive system, which becomes a downward spiral as then it leaks worse. The derivative auto-immune effects attack the myelin sheaths in brain. I can verify this phenomenon with the "on fire" pain around my gut every time after I eat. And the inflammation all over my body goes crazy after I eat. If I fast, I don't get inflammation. I stopped the high dose vitamin D3 for some weeks and I deteriorated. Took it again 100,000 IU and got big boost again. Apparently the D3 is a hormone which stimulates overall well being and it also seems to tame the auto-immunity some what (not totally but significantly). I have been fermenting salsa to make it sour for the good bacteria. This seems to perhaps help because I got much less diarrhea. But it doesn't apparently make it to the colon where probably the problem is acute. Also nightshade vegetables (tomato) are apparently bad for us, although the good bacteria predigests it some what mitigating some of the ill effects. I am eating only meat, fish, leafy greens, camote, and distilled water. No grains. No seeds. Google also: "why nuts are bad" "why all grains are bad" "why bread is bad" "why corn is bad" "why nightshades are bad" "why legumes are bad" Edit: interesting theories about the role of hormone imbalances and may explain D3's beneficial effects for me. I also concur that I get elevated inflammation after raising my testosterone level with exercise: http://raypeat.com/articles/articles/multiple-sclerosis-hormone-related-brain-syndromes.shtml |
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The catalysts. Some years ago I independently happenstanced on (discovered) Martin Armstrong's 78.9 (79) year cycle of real estate (which I also correlated to technological unemployment cycles). So when I later discovered Armstrong's cycle models and that he had back tested them to the Athenian empire and before (even as far back as Mesopotamia), I'm keen to accept that such a cycle does exist. Armstrong is the largest hedge fund manager in history, formerly managing $3 trillion in Japanese sovereign funds before he got unintentionally entangled in the USA bankster's involved in the LTCM and Russian bonds scam via Republic bank which involved some of the funds he was managing. It is with this wealth that he compiled the massive $billion (in today's money) historical economics and natural phenomenon database that enable his supercomputer system to correlate and find these patterns and repeating cycles.
It is with this system that he has been accurately predicting everything since the 1980s without fail. In fact, I have predicted the past 4 major moves in the Bitcoin price employing his model, including my recent prediction in May that BTC would rise to $315 in June and July, then crash back down to below $150 for the Octoberish bottom.
So the model for what you are concerned with has to do with we are in a cycle of shifting from Public (i.e. sovereign and municipal bonds) to Private (e.g. gold, Bitcoin, and until 2017 USA assets including stocks) assets. There are numerous others cycles converging at this time which is what will make this coming contagion so horrific. These include the Cycle of War (both intra- and international), Pandemic Cycle, and even the Little Ice Age cycle of sunspot minimums.
What is happening now is the peripheral (to the global reserve) markets are nearing the Minsky moment dominoes collapse coming October. This is evident with rising bond spreads in Europe and the increasing volatility in for example China. And you find similar examples in Venezuela, Argentina, etc..
The distinction from 2008 will be that instead of the USA flooding the world with dollars via QE-to-the-moon (forcing China at al to flood Yuan, Euro, etc to keep US$ from becoming too strong and destroying their exports), this peripheral capital will be stampeding back into the USA as the last standing safe haven and the US Fed will be raising rates because it will see a bubble from its perspective despite the contraction in the rest of the globe's economies. The US$ will become too strong, because the peripheral economies are all effectively short the dollar (via massive loans denominated in US$ because ZIRP forced dollar investors to look abroad for yield which is what caused these bubbles abroad which are now collapsing) and will become even more so as their dollar reserves run back to the USA.
Thus going into 2017, the US$ will become so strong that it will choke off the USA economy (and also the stampede of capital into the USA will have peaked), the last economy still standing by that time. As the USA falls into the abyss in 2018, the entire world will descend into a horrific economic collapse.
The USA would try to print more QE after it heads down into the abyss in 2018, but this will be too late for the rest of the nations which will have already imploded and the USA's domestic politics are going more radicalized third party (especially after Clinton wins the 2016 POTUS election), thus this will prevent another massive TARP bailout for banks, so the banksters will instead in cahoots with the government go for bail-ins which will be massively deflationary.
This is it folks. Cash is king. Get out while you still can. This may be my last warning. |
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The catalysts. Some years ago I independently happenstanced on (discovered) Martin Armstrong's 78.9 (79) year cycle of real estate (which I also correlated to technological unemployment cycles). So when I later discovered Armstrong's cycle models and that he had back tested them to the Athenian empire and before (even as far back as Mesopotamia), I'm keen to accept that such a cycle does exist. Armstrong is the largest hedge fund manager in history, formerly managing $3 trillion in Japanese sovereign funds before he got unintentionally entangled in the USA bankster's involved in the LTCM and Russian bonds scam via Republic bank which involved some of the funds he was managing. It is with this wealth that he compiled the massive $billion (in today's money) historical economics and natural phenomenon database that enable his supercomputer system to correlate and find these patterns and repeating cycles. It is with this system that he has been accurately predicting everything since the 1980s without fail. In fact, I have predicted the past 4 major moves in the Bitcoin price employing his model, including my recent prediction in May that BTC would rise to $315 in June and July, then crash back down to below $150 for the Octoberish bottom. So the model for what you are concerned with has to do with we are in a cycle of shifting from Public (i.e. sovereign and municipal bonds) to Private (e.g. gold, Bitcoin, and until 2017 USA assets including stocks) assets. There are numerous others cycles converging at this time which is what will make this coming contagion so horrific. These include the Cycle of War (both intra- and international), Pandemic Cycle, and even the Little Ice Age cycle of sunspot minimums. What is happening now is the peripheral (to the global reserve) markets are nearing the Minsky moment dominoes collapse coming October. This is evident with rising bond spreads in Europe and the increasing volatility in for example China. And you find similar examples in Venezuela, Argentina, etc.. The distinction from 2008 will be that instead of the USA flooding the world with dollars via QE-to-the-moon (forcing China at al to flood Yuan, Euro, etc to keep US$ from becoming too strong and destroying their exports), this peripheral capital will be stampeding back into the USA as the last standing safe haven and the US Fed will be raising rates because it will see a bubble from its perspective despite the contraction in the rest of the globe's economies. The US$ will become too strong, because the peripheral economies are all effectively short the dollar (via massive loans denominated in US$ because ZIRP forced dollar investors to look abroad for yield which is what caused these bubbles abroad which are now collapsing) and will become even more so as their dollar reserves run back to the USA. Thus going into 2017, the US$ will become so strong that it will choke off the USA economy (and also the stampede of capital into the USA will have peaked), the last economy still standing by that time. As the USA falls into the abyss in 2018, the entire world will descend into a horrific economic collapse. The USA would try to print more QE after it heads down into the abyss in 2018, but this will be too late for the rest of the nations which will have already imploded and the USA's domestic politics are going more radicalized third party (especially after Clinton wins the 2016 POTUS election), thus this will prevent another massive TARP bailout for banks, so the banksters will instead in cahoots with the government go for bail-ins which will be massively deflationary. This is it folks. Cash is king. Get out while you still can. This may be my last warning. |
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Regarding the comment about real estate and salaries in Europe taking a 50% cut over the next few years, each country and city will be affected differently.
USA and Canada usually has a very similar monetary policy (Canada follows the Fed) and when we had the financial crisis of 2008 and a housing collapse in the states, places like Toronto continued to appreciate because demand remained high. Each city has something different to offer and are usually hit differently by a crisis.
This is true, except two issues remain: 1. Humans are really bad at predicting how chaos unfolds, i.e. which areas and which timing. 2. You are referring to differently timed bubbles developing and peaking; whereas, we are facing a global contagion that will take down all the profligate western nations in a series of dominoes cascade beginning October 2015 and finally taking down the last nation standing (the USA) in late 2017. From 2018 forward we go over the cliff in the West, but Asia will be bottoming around 2020, while the West will continue down and down for the foreseeable decades. From 2033 forward, there will be a new world order, with the financial capital of the world shifted from the West to Asia. Apparently from 2030 forward, the world will also be hit with a Little Ice Age, which will exacerbate crisis. |
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OROBTC, please document your boating trip with receipts and also show where you filed the "lost gun" report on time, otherwise you will be charged with a crime (a recent ex post facto law under emergency terrorism powers granted to the President by the bought congress and kangaroo courts) and housed in this prison which we can't really maintain with food, otherwise known as a concentration camp.
Your family members are associated with terrorism and you are being taken into custody on suspicion of aiding and abetting terrorism. You have no right to an attorney.
Edit: my point is you need to be as invisible as possible to the State (as it can overpower you) and your male community needs to be as strong as possible against marauding nutcases. If you depend only on the State for the latter, then well you end up dead if the State can't maintain law & order (or the State itself goes F.U.B.A.R.).
Edit#2: I suggest another narrative. I long ago sold my registered guns and some of my traceable precious metals, and here is the paperwork to prove it. I paid all my taxes. The remaining precious metals are stored here and here is the paperwork. As for the precious metals I sold, I used the funds to manage daily expenses which I paid in cash as evident by my cash withdrawals from ATMs over this time. I lived a fairly high life during the recent years (and if the State already knows where you live, I say also some diversifications into land and improvements on the land). No I didn't covertly obtain precious metals nor cryptocurrencies with that cash by purchasing mining equipment with the cash. I believed in documented precious metals instead.
Edit#3: very careful with entrusting secrets to "friends" who can turn against you when they need to survive.
Edit#4: my overriding point is that traditional forms of diversification could be entirely useless if what we face in the future is a 309 year cycle event. Smooth this point is also directed to you. I guess CoinCube also.
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OROBTC, I am changing my opinion on the value of UNREGISTERED guns (all registered guns will be seized by the government), but only if concomitant with a community of armed men for defense ( not all alone which is certain to be overrun): I estimate 60 - 80% probability of radical global chaos coming and persisting for the remainder of my life, beginning roughly in 2018 in earnest and worsening again after 2024. I don't think it will be absolute loss of governance and society every where. But it is very difficult to predict all of the ramifications and situations are likely to be very fluid and changing, so any one regional advantage could at some point turn against you. The best advice I have is try to move before the SHTF to a warmer area that is either too wet (thus some drying trend won't cause total drought) or a more rarely a warmer area that is too dry that might experience an increase in precipitation due to changes in prevailing winds or something. I don't have the data on which areas were best in the last Little Ice Age. Can any one dig up this data? And then you need to make a decision whether you trust society in that area to remain civilized; if yes then go for populated areas and depend on community. If not and you can afford it, then maybe go for your own ranch heavily defended by sturdy male family (or perhaps robots will be available soon to employ as a defensive army). Seems right now one of the most productive activities we men could do is start to acquaint ourselves with each other and making compacts to be neighbors and bond together to be able to provide the economy-of-scale to have a small rural community defense and diversification of food production and trading. Photo of some of the nutcases we will be up against:  that's the question. It seems impossible for this to happen. I can buy a pound of rolled oats for 30 cents, you could quadruble the costs and life would go on*.
You apparently lack appreciation of the significance of both marginal prices in economics, and also the non-linear effects of chaos. 1. With marginal prices in Economics 101... 2. When the population has become dependent on high economies-of-scale in farming, distribution, credit, government, corporations, etc., and that is taken away by mother nature and or widespread war/pestilence.. |
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Exclusive zones can be compared to buying rare coins or art, in that the market is the wealthy who always have money or in this case are also fleeing economic distress and totalitarianism in other places. This appears to me to be more reflective of an excess in the supply of concentrated monetary wealth world-wide and insufficient productive investment opportunities. This is up held up by a $200+ trillion global debt and $quadrillion of global financial derivative leverage. The recent proposal (or law?) to raise taxes on resident foreigners who try to pretend they are not residents by some loopholes does not affect apparently the buyers who purchased above, but it does apparently affect a large swath of the upper end of investment real estate in the UK and this will be reflected broadly but not in some acute rarities such as Towers in the prime districts. The best advice I have is try to move before the SHTF to...
Without organized governance and society, who will keep the pumps working to prevent the Netherlands from being retaken by the ocean? Don't say it is impossible. Chaos is non-linear.  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2567384/Huge-pumps-Holland-brought-end-misery-flood-hit-Somerset-Levels.html |
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I estimate 60 - 80% probability of radical global chaos coming and persisting for the remainder of my life, beginning roughly in 2018 in earnest and worsening again after 2024. I don't think it will be absolute loss of governance and society every where. But it is very difficult to predict all of the ramifications and situations are likely to be very fluid and changing, so any one regional advantage could at some point turn against you. The best advice I have is try to move before the SHTF to a warmer area that is either too wet (thus some drying trend won't cause total drought) or a more rarely a warmer area that is too dry that might experience an increase in precipitation due to changes in prevailing winds or something. I don't have the data on which areas were best in the last Little Ice Age. Can any one dig up this data? And then you need to make a decision whether you trust society in that area to remain civilized; if yes then go for populated areas and depend on community. If not and you can afford it, then maybe go for your own ranch heavily defended by sturdy male family (or perhaps robots will be available soon to employ as a defensive army). Seems right now one of the most productive activities we men could do is start to acquaint ourselves with each other and making compacts to be neighbors and bond together to be able to provide the economy-of-scale to have a small rural community defense and diversification of food production and trading. Photo of some of the nutcases we will be up against: that's the question. It seems impossible for this to happen. I can buy a pound of rolled oats for 30 cents, you could quadruble the costs and life would go on*.
You apparently lack appreciation of the significance of both marginal prices in economics, and also the non-linear effects of chaos. 1. With marginal prices in Economics 101, the price you pay is set by the most expensive producer. It is not a useful model to think of a 3/4 reduction in food production causing causing a 400% increase in prices, because when you take away 3/4 of the lowest cost producers, the new supply is highest cost producers. So as was the case in Bosnia, where the cost of food was driven by the highest cost producers, a tin can of Spam was $30 to $40, i.e. roughly a 1000% increase. You need to visualize this as disruption of economies-of-scale not only in farming, but also in terms of distribution economies-of-scale, security of farming and distribution economies-of-scale. 2. When the population has become dependent on high economies-of-scale in farming, distribution, credit, government, corporations, etc., and that is taken away by mother nature and or widespread war/pestilence (-4.5 F average temperature reduction in cold climates, with great aggregate effects such as flooding, droughts, etc), then the F.U.B.A.R. human effects are quite non-linear as described in that link bigtimespaghetti provided on surviving the war in Bosnia (which I had read long ago when it was first published). This can further exacerbate application of solutions and thus drive prices another 1000% higher. Adaptation was essential as explained below, but the following adaptation can't be done if you are surrounded by humans who are suddenly thrust into a situation for which they are not prepared because they will hunt you instead of adapting: http://archive.archaeology.org/1209/letter/iceland_hjalmarvik_irminger_east_greenland_current.htmlDuring the coldest winters, sea ice would have covered the bays at Svalbard. This usually meant a short summer with little time to grow grass to feed sheep, but the ice also brought a food resource with it—seals. According to Woollett, the excavations around Svalbard reveal that after the Little Ice Age began, the amount of seal and fish bone in the middens dramatically increases, demonstrating that these animals were an important part of the diet. The people of Svalbard could also rely on getting a certain amount of food by fishing and by butchering beached whales.
At the same time, the farmers at Svalbard changed their herding strategy. The farm would have kept a few cows for dairying and a few horses for transportation, but almost all of the animals raised at Svalbard were sheep. According to Woollett, this was a good approach because sheep are hardier and require less fodder than pigs and cattle. The pastures in northeastern Iceland aren’t as productive as those in continental Europe, so the strategy at Svalbard seems to have been to raise a relatively small number of sheep on a large amount of land. “The land is pretty crappy, but there is a lot of it,” says Woollett, adding, “they’re not producing what you want to eat if you are an elite [i.e., beef], but it is a predictable and durable system.” A similar system persisted for centuries. Even after farmers began to use tractors in the early to mid-twentieth century and were making money from tourists who wanted to fish in their rivers, sheep herding remained the agricultural focus of the area’s farms. http://www.eh-resources.org/timeline/timeline_lia.htmlMarginal regions
During the height of the Little Ice Age , it was in general about one degree Celsius colder than at present. The Baltic Sea froze over, as did most of the rivers in Europe. Winters were bitterly cold and prolonged, reducing the growing season by several weeks. These conditions led to widespread crop failure, famine, and in some regions population decline.
The prices of grain increased and wine became difficult to produce in many areas and commercial vineyards vanished in England. Fishing in northern Europe was also badly affected as cod migrated south to find warmer water. Storminess and flooding increased and in mountainous regions the treeline and snowline dropped. In addition glaciers advanced in the Alps and Northern Europe, overrunning towns and farms in the process.
Iceland was one of the hardest hit areas. Sea ice, which today is far to the north, came down around Iceland. In some years, it was difficult to bring a ship ashore anywhere along the coast. Grain became impossible to grow and even hay crops failed. Volcanic eruptions made life even harder. Iceland lost half of its population during the Little Ice Age.
Tax records in Scandinavia show many farms were destroyed by advancing ice of glaciers and by melt water streams. Travellers in Scotland reported permanent snow cover over the Cairngorm Mountains in Scotland at an altitude of about 1200 metres. In the Alps, the glaciers advanced and bulldozed over towns. Ice-dammed lakes burst periodically, destroying hundreds of buildings and killing many people. As late as 1930 the French Government commissioned a report to investigate the threat of the glaciers. Understand how important the functioning of trade (which could be disrupted by wars and coming global chaos) between disaffected regions was (but note this improvement also coincided with the lifting of the worst of the minimum sun spot cycle by 1715): Agricultural revolution
During the later Middle Ages, slowly but steadily farmers started to experiment with new agricultural methods, in order to adapt to increasingly unpredictable climates and also stimulated by the growth of profitable markets in growing cities and increasing long distance trade.
This initially low technology agricultural revolution started in Flanders and the Netherlands in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. Dutch farmers experimented with lay farming, the deliberate growing of animal fodder and cultivating grasslands for cattle. In addition they started systematic breeding of cows and the Frisian milk cow is probably the most famous example of this.
Another innovation was the continuous growing of specialized crops. Instead of letting valuable ground lay fallow, they planted peas, beans and especially nitrogen-rich clover, all of which provided food for humans and animals alike. The vegetables were rotated with grain, turnips and later potato for export but also for feeding dairy cattle. As a result of this system the amount of fallow land contracted rapidly until it totally disappeared. Agriculture became an intensive activity.
The new intensive agriculture produced such a high surplus that Flanders and later the Netherlands could specialize and diversify their agricultural activity. With abundance of fodder, animal and dairy farming (think of Dutch cheese) became increasingly important economic activities. More meat, wool, and leather as well cheese came on the market as the new agriculture broke the dependence on grain. At the same time farmers diversified into industrial crops such as flax, mustard and hops for brewing beer.
This agricultural revolution could not have succeeded without the development of new ships to withstand the harsher climatic conditions imported large amounts of grain form the Baltic, undermining local grain production. These grain imports made the Flemish and Dutch economy independent from climatic fluctuations causing famine. |
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Armstong did another piece on global cooling http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34854and I don't really know what to make of it. Our model tracks everything including climate. So that's allready factored in in all predictions? ...We could realistically see famine reach the 33%-50% level. ....... we may exceed more than a reduction in population of one-third and reach the levels of the 14th century of 50%,... these are worldwide numbers? Can someone translate that into a percentual price increase(range)? Every 309 years serious shifts come. The end of the severe minimum in the sun spot activity was 1715. Thus 1715+309 = 2024 will be the start of a slide into a new minimum in sun spot activity. Seriously bad shit can result. We are headed into really bad and difficult times. The main upside is we are more technologically advanced by now, so we can cope well if we get organized with the Knowledge Age. OROBTC, I am changing my opinion on the value of UNREGISTERED guns (all registered guns will be seized by the government), but only if concomitant with a community of armed men for defense ( not all alone which is certain to be overrun): The best advice I have is try to move before the SHTF to a warmer area that is either too wet (thus some drying trend won't cause total drought) or a more rarely a warmer area that is too dry that might experience an increase in precipitation due to changes in prevailing winds or something. I don't have the data on which areas were best in the last Little Ice Age. Can any one dig up this data? And then you need to make a decision whether you trust society in that area to remain civilized; if yes then go for populated areas and depend on community. If not and you can afford it, then maybe go for your own ranch heavily defended by sturdy male family (or perhaps robots will be available soon to employ as a defensive army). Seems right now one of the most productive activities we men could do is start to acquaint ourselves with each other and making compacts to be neighbors and bond together to be able to provide the economy-of-scale to have a small rural community defense and diversification of food production and trading. Photo of some of the nutcases we will be up against: that's the question. It seems impossible for this to happen. I can buy a pound of rolled oats for 30 cents, you could quadruble the costs and life would go on*.
You apparently lack appreciation of the significance of both marginal prices in economics, and also the non-linear effects of chaos. 1. With marginal prices in Economics 101... 2. When the population has become dependent on high economies-of-scale in farming, distribution, credit, government, corporations, etc., and that is taken away by mother nature and or widespread war/pestilence.. OROBTC, please document your boating trip with receipts and also show where you filed the "lost gun" report on time, otherwise you will be charged with a crime (a recent ex post facto law under emergency terrorism powers granted to the President by the bought congress and kangaroo courts) and housed in this prison which we can't really maintain with food, otherwise known as a concentration camp.
Your family members are associated with terrorism and you are being taken into custody on suspicion of aiding and abetting terrorism. You have no right to an attorney.
Edit: my point is you need to be as invisible as possible to the State (as it can overpower you) and your male community needs to be as strong as possible against marauding nutcases. If you depend only on the State for the latter, then well you end up dead if the State can't maintain law & order (or the State itself goes F.U.B.A.R.).
Edit#2: I suggest another narrative. I long ago sold my registered guns and some of my traceable precious metals, and here is the paperwork to prove it. I paid all my taxes. The remaining precious metals are stored here and here is the paperwork. As for the precious metals I sold, I used the funds to manage daily expenses which I paid in cash as evident by my cash withdrawals from ATMs over this time. I lived a fairly high life during the recent years (and if the State already knows where you live, I say also some diversifications into land and improvements on the land). No I didn't covertly obtain precious metals nor cryptocurrencies with that cash by purchasing mining equipment with the cash. I believed in documented precious metals instead.
Edit#3: very careful with entrusting secrets to "friends" who can turn against you when they need to survive.
Edit#4: my overriding point is that traditional forms of diversification could be entirely useless if what we face in the future is a 309 year cycle event. Smooth this point is also directed to you. I guess CoinCube also.
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