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6281  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Hello , check my new website on: June 10, 2012, 11:33:57 PM
On my screen the ads are all at the bottom of the page and aren't even visible unless I scroll down.

I think that's great but I doubt your advertisers do.
6282  Other / Off-topic / Re: Telling a story with only the use of images. on: June 10, 2012, 11:00:04 PM


6283  Economy / Economics / Re: The Macroeconomics of Chinese kleptocracy on: June 10, 2012, 09:35:24 PM
Based on that article if Bitcoin ever started to become popular with the masses in China you could expect a massive crackdown. This means that a lot more work would need to be done to enable the network to work in the presence of active attempts to detect and block it.
6284  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Tomorrow I head to the Lions' Den.... on: June 10, 2012, 07:08:46 PM
The point is that they can't get a decent return so government debt is not a problem.  Its free money IF you can find a place to invest it.  Better than free - atm government debt has a negative rate of return.
The fact that governments can't run a balanced budget is the problem. The unfunded liabilities they are trying to fulfill out simply can't be paid. IN the attempt to do so, however, they are going to suck an exponentially-increasing amount of the economy into their fiscal black hole until the cash flow can no longer be sustained. That's when we get a "disbanding of the USSR" event.

The actual GAAP deficit of the US federal government is $5 trillion, compared to about $1.5 trillion in revenue. The unfunded pension liabilities just for federal employees are almost as large as the rest of the population combined. This is not a fixable problem, especially when you consider medical costs growing at a consistent 9% since the 1980s.

All we can say for certain is that retiree pension and medical costs will never achieve 100% of total economic output. Somewhere between now and that point people are going to stop getting paid.
6285  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Tomorrow I head to the Lions' Den.... on: June 10, 2012, 06:12:19 PM
Conservatively run pension fund is making wild investment decisions because it needs 8% return and can only get 4%.  The problem the world faces is not debt - its what can you invest in?
That's not an example of a conservatively run pension fun. That's an example of public sector idiocy.

Anyone with a calculator and a knowledge of 8th grade mathematics can see that it's not possible in the long term for an investment strategy to exceed the overall growth rate of the economy. Only a moron would expect to get 8% returns forever if the economy is growing at 3%-4%  because if your investment fund is growing exponentially at a rate greater than the economy as a whole after a certain number of years your fund would need to own more than 100% of the economy.

What happened is that a bunch of public sector pension funds got lucky in the 1990s and experienced about 8% returns for a few years. This was a fluke but they got greedy and wrote into law that the pension fund must achieve those returns every year forever, as if legislating investment returns magically causes economic growth to appear. All these pension funds are now insolvent and the people depending on those unsustainable promises are going to get increasing desperate and hostile as the mathematical reality inevitably closes in.
6286  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Tomorrow I head to the Lions' Den.... on: June 10, 2012, 05:54:02 PM
It's really very simple. Making political promises is free but fulfilling those promises is not.

It costs a politician nothing to promise everybody the ability to retire at 40 with their own private moon base. However all those retirees still need food, medicine, entertainment, clothing and shelter. They need people to construct the moon bases and to transport them to and from the moon. This couldn't be done because the economic output of the sub-40 population simply isn't large enough to give everybody over 40 their own private moon base to retire on. Printing money doesn't help because money printing doesn't cause crops to grow or rockets to be constructed. Real economic output requires human effort. If the entire population was expecting to retire at 40 to their own private moon base it just wouldn't happen for everyone. A couple people might get one but no matter how big of a tantrum the rest of the aspiring moon retirees threw it just wouldn't happen because the economic output necessary to support such a plan does not exist. You can't vote, bribe, threaten or cajole mathematics. 2+2=4 no matter how inconvenient or unfair we might think it is.
6287  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Tomorrow I head to the Lions' Den.... on: June 10, 2012, 04:29:56 PM
I think you forget that the USSR's biggest problem was that people could see they were poorer than necessary just by looking at television and seeing how we lived.  No matter how bad things get in the US economy, there isn't actually a better model that people can see right now.  Chances are, the system will outlive all of us.
It was a simple matter of mathematics, just like it is here. Exponential debt growth can't last forever and the end comes much more rapidly than people expect because they don't intuitively understand the nature of exponents.
6288  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [IDEA] Dirt cheap online storage on: June 10, 2012, 06:26:04 AM
Or, looking at it from a different perspective, perhaps a central agency (I know, naughty words here) could match up buyers and sellers as appropriate.  The agency would know who has what storage, bandwidth, and speed capabilities.  For each buyer, they might choose a host with lots of speed, a host with lots of storage, and a host with lots of bandwidth, then serve from each of the three depending on how often the person needed the data.  If they end up needing the data often, work with the host with lots of bandwidth.  If they end up needing the data infrequently, let them download at higher speeds.  Etc, etc.  Yes, it would be complicated, but maybe less complicated than trying to figure out a decentralized way of matching up buyers and sellers.
There's no reason to restrict the market-making function to a single entity. While the network is small you could even use #bitcoin-otc to match up buyers and sellers. That gives you an open order book and a reputation system to work with. When the network grows more exchanges could appear and people (or their software agents) could choose the best ones to use.

Creating a market mechanism is really as simple as automating the steps that you'd use to buy and sell manually. If you were looking to rent hard drive space you'd go to a place like #bitcoin-otc, look at the offers that were available and the reputation of the sellers and choose one or more of them to form a contract with. After the contract ended you'd leave either positive or negative feedback as appropriate and expect the seller to do the same for you. If either party provided inaccurate feedback the other one would attempt to prove his innocence in order to protect his reputation. People with higher reputation scores could charge more for their services than those with low or nonexistent scores.

Automating this is a matter of encapsulating in software a set of rules for the buyer and a different set of rules for the seller.
6289  Economy / Economics / Re: Velocity of Bitcoin and Deflation on: June 10, 2012, 05:54:00 AM
As the example above shows economics is not at all difficult in principle but we're taught so much self-serving misinformation that it's hard to figure out what's going on.

I'd recommend reading some Frédéric Bastiat. His examples are very approachable.
6290  Economy / Economics / Re: Velocity of Bitcoin and Deflation on: June 10, 2012, 05:31:40 AM
You are saying that the Printer of the money can print how ever much money he so desires, and this takes value away from the productive because he just made money for the product made by the productive. This is only possible when there is no backing of a money. Bitcoin has no real hard backing. Am I reading this correctly.
Currency backing is a red herring.

Imagine an economy consisting of 100 people who produce 100 widgets/time and trade with 100 currency units. The price of each widget is going to be equal to 1 currency unit and each person gets a widget every unit of time. Now imagine one person manages to forge 10 currency units and he goes out and buys 10 widgets before anyone else realizes what is going on. Now the other 99 people will be left with 100 currency units to buy with but only 90 widgets left to buy. The price of a widget will now get bid up to 1.11 currency units and will stay there because the extra 10 currency units will remain in circulating in the economy. The actual effect during the first round is the other 99 people either get less than a full widget each or else somebody gets none at all.

If the counterfeiter can get away with this continually he'll always be able to consume more than he produces at everybody else's expense.
6291  Economy / Economics / Re: Velocity of Bitcoin and Deflation on: June 10, 2012, 05:09:07 AM
I see how it leads to unnecessary consumption. Now that you mention it, that seems like a no brainer.

I do not see how it leads to someone being able to skim value away from the productive. Can you elaborate?
In order for inflation to occur new currency (money or credit) needs to be introduced into the economy. The introduction of new currency devalues each unit proportionally but the first people who get to spend it do so before the devaluation manifests. So the way the monetary system works now people who have access to credit creation get to enjoy privileges indistinguishable from those of a counterfeiter - the ability to consume value produced by other people without any need to produce an equivalent amount of value first for someone else first.
6292  Economy / Economics / Re: Velocity of Bitcoin and Deflation on: June 10, 2012, 04:56:06 AM
Deflation means that in order to get people to spend their money you must actually offer products and services that are compelling enough on their own merits to convince them to part with currency. Inflation pushes people towards unnecessary consumption because the are driven to spend their money more quickly as it loses value.

Naturally people who want a system that allows them to live comfortable lives by skimming value away from the productive prefer inflation and high velocity to deflation and capital formation.
6293  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Tomorrow I head to the Lions' Den.... on: June 10, 2012, 04:50:52 AM
Ah, well.  Time carries on.  Whether by ideology or simple demographics, the concepts of liberty will once again dominate in the Republican Party.  It is simply inevitable now.
Perhaps. There are far too many parallels between the events of the last few years and the situation in the USSR circa 1980 for me to be certain that the current political system will still exist in 2016.
6294  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mt.Gox AML/KYC Process Explained on: June 10, 2012, 02:48:16 AM
You don't have to qualify that statement by saying "some" jurisdictions.
Since I don't know the laws of every country in the world I refrained from making a statement that claimed more knowledge than I possess. It's highly illegal in at least one jurisdiction.
6295  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mt.Gox AML/KYC Process Explained on: June 10, 2012, 02:40:06 AM
not at all.  educate customers so they can structure their own tx's so as not to attract attention.
In some jurisdictions that is highly illegal.
6296  Other / Off-topic / Re: 01000010 01101001 01101110 01100001 01110010 01111001 on: June 10, 2012, 01:54:49 AM
I'm pretty sure one of these posts gave me a virus.
I hope it wasn't Snow Crash. That one is pretty nasty.
6297  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [IDEA] Dirt cheap online storage on: June 09, 2012, 11:58:20 PM
I suppose maybe asking for estimates ahead of time for how much the network thinks it might cost to buy such a block some certain timeperiod after you submit it for consideration might help give you hints about how often to buy a copy for how much in order to ensure someone out there will be eager to sell it to you next time you ask for it, but really, if it turns out you can get it cheaper from numerous providers than the initial estimates you were given, why not go the cheaper route?
That's a pretty good description of the theory of operation of a futures market. Believe it or not such markets exists and function reasonably well.
6298  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [IDEA] Dirt cheap online storage on: June 09, 2012, 11:33:43 PM
What service?

DIstributed storage tends to be crypted blocks, so maybe you want to buy blocks? Specific blocks, offering more for hard to find blocks than for blocks you can get swiftly and easily from umpteen providers?

-MarkM-

Maybe it would help if you read up on some of the whitepapers of Mojo Nation and other similar projects. There's already a lot of material written on how market-based allocation of computing resources could work and it would save a lot of time to not rehash all that in this thread.
6299  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [IDEA] Dirt cheap online storage on: June 09, 2012, 11:25:16 PM
If not, how will any node ever actually convince its owner to provide it any bitcoins?
The same way that any other paid online services work right now - the owner wants to buy the service.

Failing that, what exact services do wish the markets to offer up for sale for bitcoins? Bits per second seconds of data-transfer maybe? Along with bits per second or day or hour or year or whatever of storage? Or, pay per block, you bid X satoshis for block ASghk235bbld6w566bnlwlsl66 and first node to deliver it gets paid? Or what?
I want to store X MB for Y hours so I publish this information and then then let the those nodes who want to sell me storage bid on it. My node uses a set of heuristics to pick the best bid taking into account all relevant information (price, reputation, bandwidth, etc). The system does this for every resource that you want to allocate.
6300  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [IDEA] Dirt cheap online storage on: June 09, 2012, 11:10:45 PM
Basically the idea is we will not know which nodes have excess resources and which have shortfall of resources a-priori ahead of time.

For example even though a human owner of a node might imagine their node to have an excess of disk space could in practice turn out to be offset by their node having a shortage of bandwidth, or of uptime, or of data integrity in terms of actually proving people with the data people thought it was storing for them at the time that they wish to access it, or whatever.
That's the advantage of using a market mechanism to figure it out. We don't need to know ahead of time the best allocation of resources and instead allow the relative price to float according to supply and demand. Most individual users are not going to sit over their nodes and daytrade bandwidth and hard drive space so it makes the most sense from a usability perspective for the trading to be done by automated software agents.
For example I think GNUnet uses "karma" as its internal currency-type-thing. Merely having a lot of disk space might or might not turn out to result in gaining more karma than you lose in the accounting of various other nodes depending on how karma is actually computed and what exactly actually happens in the way of blocks being stored, blocks being requested, the speed with which requested blocks are delivered compared to the speed from which they can be obtained from other nodes, basically whatever heuristics are in the code.

It might turn out that the way to make a trickle of pennies is not so much to have lots of disk space but, rather, to provide really low latency high bandwidth delivery of data stored on such disk space as you do have.

Once the heuristics the system uses internally to assign karma to other nodes work well, then maybe it would suffice to simply have a BTC<->karma exchange where people can buy karma points for their node on nodes of their choice using bitcoins.
There's no reason to duplicate a currency system. Bitcoin has a lot of features, like contracts, that would make it useful for exactly this kind of use. If Bitcoin doesn't have sufficient features to be used as karma then wouldn't it make more sense to add them instead of creating a new currency?
But until karma points work well, maybe such a market wouldn't really be all that useful or great as markets for really great products likely do better than markets for products that don't actually work very well.
This is the risk of all new markets - that there isn't actually sufficient demand for the product being offered. It's not like any bitcoins used in the experiment would be lost though. If more people sign up to offer disk space then there are people wanting to rent then it will be extremely inexpensive to store files. This will tend to cause people selling storage to leave the network because they can't make any money and will attract new customers because the price is so low. If there are no customers willing to buy at the price point that anyone offering storage is willing to sell then the network will fail.
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