I was locked in for $300k, and now it is not delusional anymore, or even conservative, it is actually the initial step, and selling at that price should truthfully be called "selling your birthright for pea soup".

I <3 bitcoin. In the world of such abundance, who needs money anymore?

Bitcoin is not magically cheap at $750, just because it was trading at $900 for a few hours, and twice bounced back.

That new money is going to the exchanges does not automatically mean that it will be invested the first day if the price is trending down and/or hitting a resistance.

Number of bitcoins to be sold in the event of crash trumps any and all new money easily.

1% of 12 million bitcoins = BTC120,000 = $100M

Current bid depth in all the exchanges combined = $70M.

So <1% of all bitcoins could crash the price to zero.

Of course they wouldn't do it, but it is just naive to think that only the buyers decide the price. In the short term it is very much the sellers who decide, because transferring fiat to the exchanges takes long, and if the sellers take it down like in 10-17. April, new money does not even want to buy any more in the following confusion.

Sure we can go up from here, but if we do, my previous estimate of going up to $2-$3k and then crash to way less than $1k remains valid. Even if the new money entering goes parabolic, increasingly more sellers emerge as they can finally cash out $millions, transform their life, AND leave enough bitcoins to become ultra-rich if the rise continues. This will put some dampener to the price, which is already much ahead of the exponential trend.

The double top and an intermediate term bear market remains a possibility. That would be something new

Funny that nobody is questioning why the price rocketed up before all the positive news and is now struggling...

$350 is cheap, it is the ATH from 15 days ago

$500 is a reasonable level to start buyback.

If you buy into the delusion of bitcoin singularity, remember it was me who prophesied it first.  

It is good to read something concise concerning Bitcoin, and not just random forum talk:

I woke up a few days ago to the unexpected: we had crossed 1000

I select the people whom I ignore with the button, ignore by not replying, or reply with various tones.

I think you are making progress in your postings and are doing good. It didn't feel important to address your remarks, since I have already posted my investment strategy in detail in this thread, and your reply reveals that you have not read it. Of course it is not a requirement for you to read everything that I have ever posted (although I think it is time very well spent). I have no obligation to convince you that I play according to completely different rules. Upon saying that, however, I can explain:

- Most speculators hope that something will happen, and make trades based upon that. This, in the long term, does not lead to good result due to various factors.

- I estimate the scenarios (what could possibly happen), estimate probabilities, calculate value functions, and find whether I should realign the portfolio or not. I also decide what I do next in each of the scenarios. I do not buy or sell anything at a whim. I can hardly make a loss because I always select the choice which gives the best expected value. Even if a "negative" scenario happens, it does not change anything, because I never take risks. I spent several hours between the China $1,100 top and the start of selling, analyzing various things, such as the chart that quacks like a duck (100% per week is a parabolic top, no matter how rich you want to be.) Bitcoin can as well go to zero or million dollars. Everything is considered.

TL;DR: I don't find it interesting enough to discuss the topic at such a low level.

Finally someone catches the point


Yes, I am a wealth manager, doing that professionally since 2006. My personal APR is something like 40% in last 10 years (bitcoin distorts things everybody has that nowadays.. )

There are so many services that are so important for the bitcoin millionaires, and so few people are in the position to do it. Old world is clueless and/or untrustable. I will be able to make however much I want by selling targeted services to bitcoiners.

The "problem" is that I already have so much money in all possible forms that receiving more of it does not make a difference.

I just continue to offer exactly the services what I perceive to be the most useful (see sig for details). It does not matter if I make money or not. My advice is generally free, I have sold it in the past but it did not feel good. Whoever has an ear, let him hear.

Where there is a couple of $M, there is a way.

The scornful replies to my observation indicate that you have too many bitcoins and that makes you emotional. I suggest you do what I have done and cash out a couple of $M so that you can sleep better and become less touchy 

Sorry, but after stepping aside for a moment, this discussion increasingly resembles that of the idealist-socialist-collectivist altcoins, see Devcoin for example. There is currently no opportunity window for such a coin, despite my earlier belief that there was.

Fill in the blanks:


From March 18 to April 9, in 23 days, bitcoin appreciated 379% against the USD, which is average 7.0% daily. The following day it crashed, erasing all the gains of the last 3 weeks, and providing a stellar buying opportunity.

From November 3 to November 23, in 21 days, bitcoin appreciated 291% against the USD, which is average 6.7% daily. It still has room to appreciate __% in _ days, after which it will _____, erase ___ the gains of the last _ weeks and provide a ________ ______ ___________.


See for yourself

It is up +100% from the start of the week, and has gone from -33% below the trend to +180% above, in about a month.

Surely you understand that either it is in a real risk of crashing, or laa laa this time is different we <3 Bitcoin.


...but that people sit too tight on their bitcoins is less of a problem than that many sell out all too soon

The once allmighty gold is fast approaching 1% of my portfolio. From the above.

People have different subjective valuations for financial security. In my opinion it is entirely astute to have 80% of your net worth in bitcoin, for you it might be 100%. Many find even 5% intolerable.

Life brings all kinds of situations where you cannot earn a living and need savings. It is foolhardy to think you are immortal.

I was quoting prices is dollars for convenience, because this is a large forum where most readers do not use bitcoin as their accounting unit.

Wealth is the same, regardless whether it is measured in bitcoins or dollars, because (in any point of time), bitcoin is a fixed multiple of dollar.

I do advocate using dollar as your accounting unit, since its value (purchasing power) is relatively constant, whereas Bitcoin's purchasing power increases tenfold every year. It is just handy.

But I also encourage to carefully consider that every one of your bitcoins is increasingly likely to reach $1 million in value quite soon. It should be treated as an inheritance, not to be wasted away. Every bitcoin you give away must give you more value than an extra $ one million would have given you in a few years of time. This is accomplished by selling only so little that the remaining amount is worth more (more dollars, houses, or gold) than the whole stash was in the previous stage.

How you allocate the non-bitcoin part of your portfolio is up to you. I do not advocate holding dollars as any % of it, unless you do arbitrage or something. The value converted from bitcoin should be used to buy silver, gold, castles with apple gardens, businesses, etc.

If you are a world dominator, then it makes sense to acquire as many bitcoins as possible and not care about the above. But who wants in that kind of game anyway...

There is. Buy bitcoins with leverage.

Note: it is stupid. Don't do it, nor anything else that involves a loan or obligation.

For most people, holding 100% of the initial amount is not a wise choice. It is good to diversify by selling into strength to account for the possibility of a black swan event in Bitcoin technology. This way you steadily accumulate also non-BTC assets, and can learn how to handle wealth. You sleep better and don't see dips in price as an opportunity to panic, but rather an opportunity to buy back if you really feel like so. The selling plan must be based on percentages, which means that no matter how high bitcoin goes, you still have more value in your remaining BTC.

If you have BTC1,000 and you absolutely want to have the same number when it hits $million, then it is best to just bury the paper wallet into ground and wake up when you are a billionaire. Trading only makes you lose the most of it over time with no gain. But it is not healthy for anyone to suddenly become a billionaire.

If instead, you flex your Excel muscle and devise a plan to sell BTC900 in decreasing increments at exponentially rising price points, you will already be rich and well-established when bitcoin hits $1 million, and totally content with the idea that your remaining stash is still worth a cool $100M.

Arbitrage is best when the price differential is the highest. I got more than 50%.

Looking at 6 month chart, China has equalled Bitstamp about half of the time. I see no reason to pay any premium this way.

It is a little bit tricky to do it calmly, because in my case there is overall position management, swing trading and arbitrage all working together. It is like a requirement to think with 3 different brains simultaneously.

China is not following. The arbitrage is quickly closing. What happens next is that arbitrageurs buy back in China and sell the equivalent in Bitstamp. At least I will do that

I am doing what feels good to me, you are doing what feels good to you. We are both winning. Every day.

"1984" ends with the notion that you will love big brother after enough brainwash (and torture). So the masses will also feel good. I don't know how to interact with you because you think everyone desires your lifestyle, which honestly is quite extreme, and unsuitable for most.

It almost feels like not losing at all, doesn't it?