I'm deliberately going to avoid betting on Joker as a film winner but its still possible Pheonix does win the best actor award.    The reason I doubt it will occur is that the film is a little too dark, no problem but it has more of a specific appeal and in the oscars it comes from the industry itself.   I believe they do go for the most dramatic overall grand performance and production so by far the most likely film to sweep awards is 1917 as always war stays relevant.
  He was excellent in Gladiator and perhaps an even greater villian but that whole film matches the ceremony and grand scale I would most think wins.

I'm taking the outside odds on this one probably Parasite and a couple small bets for the others.  1917 is too much of a favourite to take the risk/reward.

Its been very bullish how BTC held yearly average on the lows in recent months but also we have played out to the top of the range since the Summer.



Both sides of the range held in the China speech candle shown at the start.   When this occured it was quite alot of volume but now we are light so it will take longer, more attempts and a more gradual cross of this possible resistance.
   It can go as low as 8000 to gain the run up or momentum to pass this line.   A good guess might be 8500 because we have gone sideways at that point also.

Love to see all these optimistic topic titles again, means its probably going into another cycle of down before later going up.  Anyone who likes to trade should like that we never seem to move in a straight line for long.


Too late seems like, unless we're talking a time frame of some years.   Buy dip usually means finding positives amid seemingly negative pricing, the person who spotted 200 week moving average as being a thing perhaps.    Buying now isnt a dip, its a buy into momentum perhaps and the hope it continues but even that I think it required an earlier buy then now.
   A trade now is difficult because to me its a turning point, market must decide between paths or digest prior gains if you like.

BTC turning around from 3k already restored faith I think, it can half here and still make that claim.  Dont think it will half but just going up isnt a requirement afaik.

Nice to see a discord server as its very easy to follow.  I'm admin on a few different servers, not big just few dozen people but I can mod casually if you want to add me.   Just removing junk or anything extreme if thats the case the more people around the better I presume.

All the people I respect know and tell others its always a range of probabilities.      There isnt any special condition to warn about that right now.      All I've seen recently is short term channel top possibly.



So a few days ago it was a possible break below here and a decent sell, didnt happen.   So we're at top of this range of expectations or trend to the price and its just a movement within the tides that take months, years even.
  We'll see how it reacts now but it takes quite a while to develop dangerously, a serious of extensions passed is usually when its best to be cautious.   Take some profits if you just gained 50%, for sure seems sensible but I dont think we have a high for the year and I'm quite moderate in any expectations for this year.

Buy when theres more doubt then now or some have the strategy to buy into a rise but I think we already had that beginning of a rise.     Buy into selling to then hold medium term is I think the smart way to do it, the problem with a question of to buy now also matches someone who will shortly want to sell not long after and the price might be lower then.



My general take is we are in the area of resistance, it can keep going of course but I think theres time for buying with some delay from right now.    Theres a number of places lower it could return to before moving higher later so I would speculate it might do that.   However I dont have the excuse to be bearish just this moment, I think its on the menu though.   200 day MA is still in decline so I do have some excuse for hesitancy.

Awesome sauce but remember these bullish predictions are part of the near term, its the froth that appears when we gain.  Its going up non stop, all your worries are over, easy street etc.    Its way more complicated then that and its a pain that its never simple but I also love the waves that make up the patterns to bullish or bearish moves.
     Thats a long winded way of saying I think we are near to resistance and it can lose 20% from here and still be within a rise later in the year.

The answer on this could be down to simply the reach of either opponent to hit the other without putting themselves in danger of KO from the opponents superior skill.     This is the Boxers backyard so they should be winning it if they can avoid any complications.
It will happen whenever its likely to make the most money, the realistic reason for the challenge.   As soon as possible would benefit Pacquiao's standing advantage and I doubt McGregor wants to delay and put up too many obstacles and risk losing the fee.

https://twitter.com/KevinI/status/1217535252131807232

Dont hang off the round number of 10,000 itself, consider all the different nations clocking up BTC in their own money.   USD sure is important but its not the money I spend every day and I refer to a different price and so with BTC there is no round number significance on a personal level.     It matters and it doesnt, for convenience any flat thousand will register as it will be in alot of orders but I think we'll find the actual top is past 10k and it matches the 2019 Summer low prices partially; I call the convenient flat levels speedbumps.

   The easiest way to find a probable area of turn around right now is go back and using weekly bars, observe where they open and close and share a common resting point.    The more points shared, the greater the likely volume in this area.   Even better is if you can collect the volume from 6 different exchanges and amalgamate the data accounting for FIAT exchange rates at that time and perfectly match volume.   I dont have those resources to be juggling that constantly so Bitfinex is mentioned as a reliable source to spot volume highs and lows because its one of the largest exchanges.    
  Also this index is trying to bring in some formality or standardisation to traded price I think, not sure BTC will ever conform uniformly like conventional markets but it could be significant if many acknowledge and use it as a resource.

Crypto is useful as a divider to cash I must pay bills with, also I receive crypto as payment for in game items.   Sometimes the bet I make is on esports or computer based competition and games so its all part of the same economy and one part balances out the other.    I'd really rather not be flipping back and forth into FIAT which has its own problems of losing value and right now has little benefits from bank interest available so why not crypto.   
   Also crypto can be way less hassle, quicker to transfer even then a bank account.   Not all but some of my banks take upto 30 minutes to acknowledge the transfer is made, its just a pain and everything you do on a bank statement is recorded and used for a credit history which I really dont need the bother of as I know I only gamble quite small amounts.

Most credit cards would cause some problem for any large amount borrowed to buy Bitcoin.   Its a really bad idea to mix something volatile with crypto and also not have the capital spare to do so, it means we have panic'd holders in the space even before its used for gambling or whatever.
   You can already use credit card to withdraw cash and I generally think thats a bad idea to allow under law while parallel with banning gambling, seems like you are just asking people to go around it via other means anyway.    

The thing is crypto relates to cash not securities like shares.   The exchange of value just by itself isnt a taxable event in most countries, gold for example is often protected from taxes as a holding.   Silver can be subject to sales tax because its used for cutlery and jewelry and is a bit more industrially used.    Its unfortunate if just sending cash makes a person requiring an accountant, luckily I'm not that rich either way.

Coat it in batter and fry it enough and its good, even some big ole insects I would try as I believe they are quite the tasty snack but the problem is not the eating various animals but the controls and how they are kept before being thoroughly cooked.    The conditions for these animals are inhumane and if you want to eat something, cook it well and keep it well or screw ups will happen.   Same fallout happened in the UK when they couldnt keep track of the feed source for the cattle, which turned out to be their brothers and sisters passed away in some small percentage it snowballed into requiring mass slaughter of stock; ie. the sick animals got fed to the well and a terrible fallout happens eventually passing even into the human chain as a problem.
    The Chinese apparently have to learn this lesson how many times now before they stop repeating an obvious mistake and keep animals properly when in close proximity to humans, I dont know thats the truth of it but its not much of a stretch to believe way too many corners were cut for costs and we got consequences.   Can happen anywhere I guess but the most populated country with giant migration on packed trains and buses for New Years, disaster.

Solid diesel power there, confirming at this price would be a strong condition for a push beyond recent highs.   It was in danger of failing momentum and losing that short term trend.   Lets see how the daily bar goes.   Target 9835 upside, a break down would have been a larger move I reckon, Yogi misses out on this picnic basket.

The recovery rate is good?  I guess not epidemic style

These are the same kids that dont watch TV maybe at all, they dont even own a TV now so its a big deal to companies trying to reach a demographic potentially beyond their normal reach.   Amazon bought up Twitch because its as big as Youtube to them for broadcasting adverts to a section of the population who might not otherwise see them, theres a premium to be gained when you have an exclusive audience.   Its not something thats going to go away, to put a positive spin on it is quite easy as its alot more interactive then TV and all the various digital platforms are integrated and share traffic.
   I would argue its relevant to BTC, that new digital economy so esports bets is totally a correct direction imo.   I think its a growth sector for years to come, I hope crypto is part of that integration utility that various websites demand is easily implemented and quick to do.   If BTC ever gets dismissive, rigid or elitist in adaption for facilitating new growth in economies I would be sad about that and see it as a great hitch to its possible success.

Schiff and a few others have said BTC years into the future is worth hundreds because its uniquely useful to some, maybe they go onto say those people are only criminals and so on but they seem to be contradicting themselves or being ignorant in their judgement.   If they also predict gold may alter by 1000% why wouldnt that hundreds also possibly turn out to be thousands and still within their bearish prediction, irrational markets etc.
   Disruptive technology, a sector never seen before and sure you dont like it but who liked computers 40 years ago they were annoying and a pain to use and very expensive yet they developed and they found utility, it was foolish to be negative on something changing so fast.    So if you hate BTC but you find it has a unique use and believe this will go for years, the conclusion shouldnt be to short it really.   To his credit or other bears on BTC I dont think they did short because they also hate FIAT generally so as TSLA shorts have found, the price is potentially infinite in a loose money atmosphere.    
   If we were living in a sensible world I reckon price history would only have ever been in the hundreds and we'd be happy about it.  TSLA would be 20x its earnings and people still hyped, but we're on a magical mystery tour so who knows what we'll see in total.

Halvening isnt in the price, its not hyped enough that'll happen closer to the news, so time as a factor and population cross section is a factor and eventually it gets saturated, over done I guess.  I can think we are flat on the year generally but it can rise alot within that range and still be not be hype about it.   I think 2021 or might even be later, thats when a bigger move happens.   It does depend on other factors, external world events imo could be increasingly relevant over protocol adjustment.

Gambling every day isnt the problem, so long as the money management is fine its hardly a negative.   Only then the cost of time is considered a possible negative, that varies.   People are rubbish at handling money in all kinds and all sectors of business, not just gambling.  Not sure I always consider that a gamble problem exactly as spending you dont have is always going to end a negative.

I like sports bets for that reason, it shouldnt require too much time directly to engage with the bet or play.   Obviously it usually involves watching the game or race but still its pretty low maintenance.

Price is still over 9000 and drifting sideways, I had it at weakness and due to fall in this area but its a fly sticking to the ceiling right now by my view.     I think what it might do if this hesitancy is any indication is check back previous support and also the rough week average I keep as a phase change indicator, so thats about 9285 pricing.    If it can confirm that point on 4hr bars I'll be more positive short term otherwise I think its just waiting to drop like an ice melt.
  Heres a pic of how breaking upwards might look and it is underneath right now.

Resistance at those highs is normal, it can surpass it if theres enough demand and theres probably two bands to previous volume and any larger orders to be expected in that area.     But yea I'm really looking for some profit taking to occur on the last rise, thats the normal thing to happen.   We rise, we sell and eventually people spot even the low is bullish because its established somewhat higher in comparison over time so then we rise again.     9250 is the foothold BTC price needs to be pushing higher from, on this 4hr bar right now; ignoring volume or whatever time of day is most significant.


Was 2010 reliable pricing, its hard to put it into a cycle if BTC wasnt fully monetised.  I think post Mt.Gox we became more real and regular.   It felt like a gigantic loss from high to low at that time, turns out it was for the best.   Is that part of a cycle thats natural and relates now.
  Great arbitrage

Here you go dump watchers, stole my nephews best crayons for a sketch.   Put down your scythe for a second, take off the grim reaper hoodie as its possible we are within or forming something of a bullish channel.  
  This is only a rough idea, I'm not especially happy with the regular boundary but I dont see enough info for weekly bars for the moment.    I think a sell off is within reasonable odds just down a relatively small amount but if we stay within a channel like this it can give us another higher high 10k or beyond.   Thats enough of a bounce and close of short attempts, etc.



A break of this trend however would be nice to capture on the downside, obviously the trick is to find the snake and ladders moments.