A crash of BTC wont bring down gold or anything that I can think of, maybe some digital markets could be affected.   I know BTC is quite important with parts of trading digital items sometimes, so liquidity could alter those prices.   BTC isnt mainstream currency like a main market but it would without any doubt be altered by a stock market, bond or even commodities crash.   The reason being its within the loop of 'hot money'
   The daily exchange of cheap money from low interest rate regimes like dollar or similar can reverse on a crash or change to bonds over higher risk assets.    Speculation and leverage are operative in BTC as we know there is futures, I use them daily myself to a small extent just for convenience but many would have no choice but to retract BTC long positions if margin calls forced them to raise liquidity.   It becomes a chain reaction and BTC is within that loop at least partially and its volatile enough to be taken off balance by a shift in weight even at distance.

The Rolling Stones have been touring for 50 years and been making a hell of alot of money for themselves and everyone who travels with them, they can fully justify even the biggest airplane and its costs and even include it in a tax deductible scheme.   Any time we have to deal with depreciating assets personally we're at a great disadvantage compared to a company and their lawyers and accountants all paid for to reduce the tax and make the operation of that asset viable.   They dont even have to make any profit, just keep pushing the losses forward every year for six years and balance it vs any tax again helping to pay for it.
   I dont think people can do that only companies, giant assets need clever heads to balance the books for all the fuel etc.    I wouldnt think of owning this plane without an excuse to include it within a limited company balance sheet.    Even a supercar I dont know, I think 1 year max then swap it for housing in some way.   Maybe I could lease the car to a club that loans them out and ditto the plane, maybe its possible if lucky and a scheme will accept your random plane

Bearish speculation near term due to us being in the region of a ceiling of sorts, caps to expectations for now makes some short bet more reasonable.  
  Right now I'm looking for an immediate close above 9250 or higher to stop an accumulation of the weekly MA indicating we have lost some momentum to the upside.   Also in this area is possible support, when lost adds to the idea of downside and some profit taking.    I think 8000 is ok to think about but a bit early to say.



Top prices match summer lows on daily bars also

Impossible to say with great certainity, most observations are based off near term with projections forward with decreasing accuracy.     Problems can begin when expectations are too great for the market to serve vs a contrasting stanard such as FIAT, if general markets retract we have hard money come into play, a general sell off for BTC is highly probable.   A normal sell off target is about 8000, if that helps you for the next month then great but I dont know we arent achieving a target of near 12k which was my general idea for halvening or possibly this year total as a high.
    If I'm asked to guess, I think we form a low that becomes support before later going to 12k not straight up and actually this is far more healthy.   Right this moment I'm observing higher lows, its bullish till broken or when two waves meet one continues (its not absolute).

1 year is not the correct time frame to consider owning a plane so yea its nice but its not the long term solution.   Great of them to allow a transition for the winner, that does make things alot easier but ultimately this question of usability has to be considered for most people as a liability to the asset.    Same as owning any large asset, only houses are immediately relevant to people because they can put it to use every day personally so the effort and cost are personally justified.  
  I'm not criticising the idea of the government to raise funds especially but its not the dream prize many imagine unless its a qualified pilot whose buying the ticket then sure maybe :p   same critic would apply to the supercar lottos that are far more common, most people cant justify holding such a thing but a car is usually more disposable and a more liquid market.   I'm just applying standard rules of liquidity and fungibility, part of the background to BTC value is its incredible ease of use, storage and instant liquidity day or night but this is the oppisite.
  In theory I'd love to be like John Travolta and own a plane like this, he lives on an airport runway and he has space by his front door to park his own plane

I always consider that base dynamic first, rising population and a general cross section not the specialised interest like myself who to some extent were always looking at projects like this.   I dont matter, Im middle of the road and not rich or with big funding so I'm not moving the needle for BTC but when you have educated qualified and to some extent wealthy indivuals who join Bitcoin and have a use for it then it really does matter even if they have no personal technical knowledge on the protocol workings.
   To really talk about bull markets and so on we need to see waves of the economy Bitcoin operates to build up with layers from technically involved to general usage by passing trade.    When you have doctors and lawyers in BTC then its really breaking ground or just anyone, it doesnt have to be the elite but I presume millions start to join when you have various trades now able to use and gain from BTC utility.
   After all that comes the price and hopefully its no longer just about speculation but observation of a natural phenomena which is people themselves and the offset of more people is the tiny amount of holding each does in a wallet raises demand vs supply and price is forced up to some extent.   The bull market is incidental not on purpose exactly.

Weekend prices dont matter :p    I'm probably wrong to say that but thats how I feel lol   but in any case the prices on the strongest volume are what count like bricks in a wall, the rest is just some mortar to hold it together but its very much about finding the most significant prices and do these really occur on sleepy saturday and sunday.    Obviously the world is large and turning, the end of sunday is actually monday really and ditto saturday is trimmed or in my view that is the picture.


Yea that'd be epic, always possible but what pushes the needle this far is a big if.    200 day I first read that as and of course I think we will re test this and need confirmation before a greater rise.    Every bull run needs a clear path and bears will be gored or possibly win, we shall see.

9050 is first call when/if 9200 goes and I might try small short but as usual I probably would have been smart to enter nearer to 10k as it will waver before it moves properly

Seems like a fair point not exactly quality over quantity but diversity and range to merit received, that would show up a different order and ranking no doubt.

I actually wanted to argue merits should not half on each use (maybe 4 merit received to 3 spendable), to make them spread further around the forum in more places as I think liquidity is an issue in the system certainly with the newest accounts; at present they don't go very far before running out.

I would be surprised at a harsh pullback right now, I reckon 8000 is about the fair or normal kind of pullback that might occur (thats not harsh imo) and people would be thrown off by that and selling into what probably becomes support at that point.   I dont rule out any lower because I've still not defined this move as a proper regular channel or rising trend, I think its just broken some of the (regular) selling and we'll see if that develops.



   Right now I dont think its negative at all, an old chart has these recent lows as possible support.    My general rule is if we stay above a rough weekly average then its got alot of momentum and generally its going to be a pain to short or express any negative trade until that 'bounce' in its step is removed.

3800 would be a back breaker, off the scale of possible for most which is where particpants or speculators at least are shed.   Depends also over what time period but most people are leaning into 2020 like its a special year, hence that'd be painful I imagine.

Your experiencing a common human flaw which is to place a human face on every natural phenomena, the world is larger then just us.   A big move doesnt have to be a big person moving a piece on a chess board, it can be the accumulation of a million people and their feelings towards worth of cash or various assets vs the secure transaction accessible across the internet that Bitcoin represents.
    I'm certain its not about whales, its a flock movement like the way sparrows fly or fish swim in sequence effected by each other in time but also as a group hence seperate units can appear as one.    I would label this as consensus opinion which moves in waves usually, to have BTC backed into thousands of value like this is more faith then any thought would occur but here we are.   Its not whales alone, they cannot move the ocean.

Running costs make this a fairly awful idea, just the cost of renting storage space and insurance is going to be thousands as a cost as soon as the winner takes pocession.       Its fine for anyone prepared but for everyone else half the stated worth because the winner immediately is in a fire sale or insolvent position of high asset low liquidity to service costs.     You need to be a company to pull this off, it'd all work if the winner immediately can enter into some kind of lease agreement with an airline.   Its not impossible but most people arent this organised.

CSGO is a strategy game as well though, just the plain reflexes is more of the other FPS types as they do not account for movement vs accuracy so much which knocks onto all placement of players during the rounds.    Thats my argument anyhow, obviously giant disparity in skill sets can mean anything goes to some extent.  Its more obvious between level teams, I used to be not bad is predicting underdog bets back when CSGOlounge was still a thing.
   I doubt Freebitco would  do skins type bets directly like lounge did but partnership with a site that does deal skins that'd be a giant deal to be part of.   Alot of sites take skins and pay BTC which obviously feeds into this economy, it used to be a massive circulation of funds back in the day.      This was my thing for a long time and I've played CS forever, I know many other players and bettors also similarly so Im totally interested how that goes.

Heres the bet thats going to win the Jan closing price event and its got decent odds even.   I did not bet this range, I swear it wasnt that viable when I was looking.   The ranges are quite slim for looking weeks ahead so I could have gone with the slightly more moderate outcome as its quite predictable for it to enter a lull before 10k but after gaining a fairly large amount in a small time.

This is why trading is hard, you need to be able to forget yesterday and whether you made a loss or gain.   How can you make a good trade today while carrying around the baggage of yesterday.     You are considering you must buy because you previously missed the lower prices, by the time you are given the opportunity to buy lower it may well be within a declining pattern which means you are not gaining by buying at that moment.
    A good trader takes the hit and carries on anyway at full strength, if it was really that easy everyone would be doing it.   In fact only about 1% of the general population can realisitically expect to realise a proper trading record and demostrate finess, most people jump on a boat and hope it doesnt sink before they can exit.
   How I handle it is to consider multiple time frames and dont add or enter into large positions.  So consider if you want to hold BTC for the next year or five years even.   Then might trade your long term positions and speculate on your large portfolio rather then an outright hope to go full weight to nothing without losing balance.

Nah too predictable, bumps in the road can be part of the groundwork to both a rising trend and declines overall and thats all there is on the menu just a reset to the gains already seen.     So far 2020 has been very positive, taking some of that back is par for the course.



Just at the top I see it falling below the rapid momentum of recent rise and historically we have a level of about 9250 it should stay above to keep rising.   I think it can reset a greater amount then the sell already seen today if not confirming above 9250 as support.

CSGO is number 1 for me, I think its quite unique and watchable by quite a diverse audience and so the betting is viable also.   I'd almost certainly regularly bet on games if they were available.   The other esports also have large population of users and potential bettors I guess but csgo is such a long term and quite a basic idea of terms of the two teams trying to stop each other.  I consider it quite accessible by anyone viewing and trying to 'get' top level play despite their skill being far beyond what most of us play its still the same game.

Well if we just want to hang off plain numbers then I remember the definition a way back being said as +20% for Bull market and -20% from a peak is a Bear market so you aint wrong.   However BTC has a range of movement that would make a Tsunami whimper and we do not get the privilege to call things so easily as a main market might.    If nothing else this at least matches the volatility present in commodity markets which can be extremely sharp at times despite various efforts to hedge and distribute supply vs demand.   BTC rises sharply because it has this fixed supply, we even know its going to be constricted so its very tight in comparison to many other markets and their ideas of bull and bear.

I'd go more with this opinion, with time comes volume and a variety to the sections of the market that have taken part in the price present that day.    Because BTC isnt based in Chicago or New York or confined to one time zone, nation, culture or people we seem to have a prolonged digestion to pricing even while the numbers change fast I do look for phases to how it acts.     I'm not all full steam ahead just yet, some will say well why dither about it but theres money to be made in every valley we must traverse even if pricing has formed its final lower low.  
  Time frames I consider are 15m  1hr  4hr daily and weekly, each adds its own picture and weight to feel BTC has vs resistance and trends in its way.   Its hard to feel every speed bump but I still cant get past thinking Bitcoin has the inertia of an Oil tanker and they need space and time to turn around.   The China speech in autumn with a very rapid rise showed that best most recently I reckon.

I could understand that if you played every game there is and games have all become a bit random and distant.    I feel modern gaming has lost its roots in the genuine gameplay required to really supply a hook or thread to the player program involvement.
   Modern games I can watch on Twitch and its almost like a movie, some literally are chained cut scenes so the two sectors have merged to some extent.  I no longer am the player just an observer to the game universe and yea I dont really like that.  If a game lacks the knives edge between success and failure, is it real any more.   I find this alot, modern pampering is not what we got on proper games years ago and then add in a possibility of latency introduced from distant internet based multiplayer and its all a bit foggy and turgid.

I always think of BTC volatility like a Richter graph which is very sharp but in both directions.   It could easily still be called out as a criticism to say BTC is volatile but its rising very fast, that is a form of instability even if people like the sharply rising prices.   So yea, seems to be with some bias to leave out the positives people might like but are still part of the details of a negative argument against BTC.

Such is life, I'll never give out certainties.   I studied statistics and probability and despite the best efforts of many nothing is ever for certain and BTC prices are especially chaotic.   Theres no way I'm telling people we have to goto 10k just because we break past a moving average which is only an indicator and not an actual live area of higher volume representing peoples interests.   I'll even say 10k itself is nonsense, doesn't mean anything even if we do sell from there in that moment also be ready to close your short as its momentum can quickly be eroded by something more real then a round number.
  
Its always maybe and a probably at my very best guess.   If it was calculated correctly on a spreadsheet they might spit confidence levels but I'd still say BTC isnt predictable, we all gamble on every trade if we're honest.
  If OP is asking a long term question he needs to visit more then one section of this forum to form his opinion as it surely relies on a variety of viewpoints to gain perspective and accuracy in a view where pressure lies between supply and demand.   If BTC can pop out of nowhere into peoples consciousnesses in 2010's what else is out there and Im aware we had clues to crypto beforehand and I even followed a few but still this whole phenomena is unprecedented and so unpredictable always imo.
  The rule I'm given by those with far more experience and success is the 200 day direction is far more important then purely its level on one day, so we have a descending 200 day average still and caution on this while forming an opinion is a fair weight to add.

I thought it was all to do with providing capital to the business which a few gambling sites have a return on, usually its about the maximum bet as you dont want someone or a few people to get silly lucky on 10% odds and have to restrict further high stakes betting.   Ideally and obviously with odds favouring the house, you want the high stakes to continue until they return their money back, the house trimming back after a loss is like the opposite & runs the risk of crystallising the loss some.
   Its such an old site I guess it might also be about wanting temptation or opportunity (having your cash already there aids the convenience factor etc.) to creep in and people gamble some of the deposits they didnt mean to, which Ive done mostly on the events bets.   I lost the brexit bet despite being correct on it passing, just the timing doh