daniel negreanu offered some thoughts on WSOP live tournaments coming back. he thinks there's no chance they'll keep the fall 2020 schedule in vegas, but he still sees a possibility for the WSOPE this year, maybe in the czech republic. https://www.cardschat.com/news/daniel-negreanu-ggpoker-wsop-crash-92386/“I would say no, absolutely not,” he said when asked if he expects a major live poker tournament to run in the US again this year.
“But then again, Venetian is running 80-player tournaments,” he said, referring to the resort’s recent introduction of shootout-format events, “and people are trying to get it going again.”
Negreanu argues that the progression of the coronavirus in the US will make it difficult for major poker events to run until a vaccine is available, which could take years. However, he also doesn’t believe live tournament poker is going away.
“It’s possible that the World Series of Poker Europe could happen at King’s Casino [in the Czech Republic],” Negreanu contends. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see that because they seem to have done a good job [containing COVID-19].” |
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Trump could win not just because Biden is not liked or China is a danger or any other reason, but because he does have a cult"ish" follower base, they would vote for him no matter what, it could be raining fire and they would still go out to vote. I would doubt about that. Yeah, there many guys from Texas which will vote for him anyway. But Trump's voting core is white middle class. And i doubt that they all for Trump now (someone because he was not to active against BLM looters and some for another reasons) I doubt that the middle class will like pogroms in cities when many people's property is suffering. I think that people will vote first of all for those who will restore order and take into account the interests of all normal people, regardless of their skin color and financial status. And such a person in my opinion may well be Trump. trump's prospects are tied to the economy and markets much more than biden. he represents pro-business policies and an end to stimulus packages that directly benefit the middle class, who is probably getting accustomed to all these coronavirus handouts. with biden in office and a democrat majority in the senate, the handouts will keep coming---some of them will be made permanent and some will also be expanded too. that's something to consider. trump represents austerity at a time when such policies are very dangerous politically. the economic data can only be manipulated so much, and his tweets hyping poor numbers can only go so far. and that's one of the most unpredictable things about this election---how bad will things get in the next few months due to the coronavirus madness? if unemployment pushes back up again in the next couple months (i think it will), that's an extra source of agony for trump. he has his core supporters, but it ain't a majority of voters. he and his campaign need to find a better way to channel the economic suffering that's about to get a whole lot worse with lots of stimulus benefits expiring this month. |
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House Democrat warns about 'inaccurate' polls: Trump voters 'fundamentally undercounted'
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), a first-term member who represents a district President Trump won by roughly 7 points in 2016, said that polls showing the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden are “inaccurate.” i posted about this a few weeks ago. i think pollsters have done a lot to repair their failings from 2016 re ignoring rural constituencies and swing state dynamics. the real problem is that trump voters are somewhat atypical compared to traditional republican voters. and it's difficult to know whether they will show up in numbers to the polls or not, or on the other hand, whether the growing contingent of anti-trump republicans/independents will sustain momentum. A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the "Primary Model," an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.
"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November," Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced." very interesting! i suspect that this election is a bit more unpredictable/higher variance than most elections, because 1. trump makes it inherently unpredictable as i mentioned above, 2. the coronavirus, 3. the recession. just as i did a couple months ago, i think trump is slightly better than a coin flip to win the election, so the current odds are pretty attractive. |
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I don't think there's much that Biden needs to do now. He is starting to look very very likely to win the race, just as the 'non-Trump' candidate. this is when sentiment analysis starts getting interesting---when the outcome seems like a sure thing. makes me wanna bet on trump.  he's still only at 2.9 though. if biden is such a sure thing, trump should get well into the 3s, don't you think?! beware the timing IMO. we are 3.5 months from the election now. if biden has all the momentum now, expect that pendulum to swing back. trump will regain the momentum at some point, and the closer to the election that happens, the better for him. |
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I think even the best players are struggling to spot sets, but they are doing much better in anticipating the possible danger, be it via analyzing pre-flop raises, post-flop bet sizes, experience or pure gut feeling. Problem is, when you concentrate too much on possible sets, you will just see them everywhere on any given flop  They are curse and blessing at the same time - and if I was asked to do new rules, I would eliminate them the odds of flopping a set are ~1 in 8 (set over set is ~1 in 100), and one only sees a pocket pair ~1 in 17 hands. that's the trouble. realistically, it is very rare that you can hand read your opponent on a set. and given the odds, you can't afford to fear sets on every board and fold away value. so there's no way around it---running into sets is always gonna be painful even when you play it right IMO. when you have strong holdings on a dry board and you run into a set, you basically have to pay them off. that's how i see it anyway. on the flip side, i love suited connectors (and one-gappers, kinda sorta) for this reason. most players will slow play a flopped set or other made monsters and will usually pay you off on a turned or rivered straight/flush. |
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I do not understand these services. Does Revolut and Paxos allow their users to send bitcoin to their own wallets or not?
you can't withdraw bitcoins with revolut. it's like robinhood. paxos proper is mainly for institutional investors---custody, OTC broker (itbit), stablecoin issuance and redemption. customers can withdraw bitcoin and other crypto. Was I correct in my first assumption about the similarities of bitcoin usage in Paypal and Neteller?
probably. technically, paxos built their third party brokerage service (which paypal presumably will be using) to include external crypto transfers so the matter isn't set in stone yet. |
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nice---i pulled a @sygambler and snagged myself a point sitting out. good game guys. So all planned? I feel I wasted my PM 🤪 yes, i was out of town with very low odds of making it on time. the heads up was much appreciated nonetheless.  Kudos to winners so far, I would bet on bitmutiny to win after this, half is already over and dude is way ahead of everyone else  . keep in mind, the series doesn't pay based on finish. it's more like a satellite---the top 9 advance to the final. IIRC, championship odds based on series performance haven't played out very well so far. a 9-man SNG plays pretty different than an ~18-man or ~27-man, plus variance and all that. |
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if wirex is offering crypto mastercard accounts, it'll give people more ways to spend. i don't see that encouraging buying and holding. my guess is that paypal's service will likely be like robinhood crypto---a broker allowing investors exposure to cryptocurrency, with no ability to deposit/withdraw them. so you probably can't buy and hold bitcoins with it, per se. |
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It's going to be interesting to see how their market develops. No way will any of them last on any fully legitimised platform. They'll all be driven out as a condition of being regulated. i see an exception for ZCASH and other coins with "optional" privacy. that's why government bootlickers like coinbase and gemini still list it. you can't withdraw to shielded addresses through those platforms. this allows for the same sort of blockchain analysis as bitcoin. |
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nice---i pulled a @sygambler and snagged myself a point sitting out. good game guys. did anyone get those bad beat bounties on @efi? Man that new 500 krill requirement really killed the fun in this for me.. Way to go SwC  yikes, what's up with that? i haven't been playing much lately outside of our (un-raked) games. i think i'm one or two hundred krill short of that.  |
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worst take so far: Unfortunately, most of the mainstream media used a similar title, so this incident is a net negative to Bitcoin. Some influencers are already saying that all crypto should be banned. This is worrying, because public perception is the only thing that stops governments from banning Bitcoin tomorrow. If majority of the population will be signalling that they will not use Bitcoin, and they don't like Bitcoin, it would be a no-brainer to ban it, because this move would be popular and will protect the establishment. the headlines were ugly but tbh the fallout doesn't seem that bad. what makes you think the majority of the population doesn't like bitcoin? do you actually expect adverse government action from this? |
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What exchanges are operating under a jurisdiction with a legal framework that supports and protects a free and open exchange or with less strict policies? Exchanges licensed in Malta or Switzerland?
no way. malta is part of the EU and switzerland is part of the EEA, so both are subject to the AMLD5. the seychelles seems to be popular for exchanges that allow unverified trading. i'm not sure how easy fiat banking is from a seychelles-based company though. singapore, the british virgin islands, and hong kong also come to mind. |
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trump's odds per betfair are at 34%/2.9 again. are we finally gonna see 3.33+?! https://odds.watch/trump-2020with the coronavirus doing what it's doing, i think this might be the time. disapproval of trump's coronavirus response is swelling. trump is wearing a mask in media photos now. the white house task force says 18 states should roll back their reopening. things are getting serious and he knows the political blowback will be severe if he keeps being perceived as not taking the coronavirus seriously. let's see where the bleeding stops. Does anyone else think, that the WH bypassing the CDC with Corona reporting is just to possibly manipulate the data ? absolutely, 100%. there is no doubt in my mind. trump has been heading this direction for a while, suggesting repeatedly that we should stop testing people because the numbers only hurt the economy. it's hilarious and depressing at the same time. things have gotten so bad that the USA is literally stooping to china's level re data censorship. unfavorable data will be spun to look good or outright suppressed if it makes things look bad enough. they've been doing it for months already with economic data, so why not? |
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Okay guys, I am in a good mood, so here comes my "surprise" for this Sunday's poker game at SwC! I am trying to keep things as simple as possible, so here we go:
efialtis makes TOP 20 --> Everyone who lands in front of me gets 500 chips
efialtis makes TOP 10 --> Everyone who lands in front of me gets 1000 chips
You beat efialtis with 2-7, 2-8, 3-8, 2-9, 2-6, T-2, A-4 -->500 chips --> read below
Each hand's prize will only be paid once, i.e I get beaten by 2-7 twice, only the first hand will be paid. Hands only count when I am active in that hand. BB/SB and I fold doesn't count, BB and I check counts lol, this should make for some interesting action. thanks for the bounties! hopefully i'll make it on sunday. nice way to get people to stack off against you with garbage hands. in b4 @efi is knocked out by 27o in the first few orbits. |
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Hello,
I'm new with Bitfinex and want to exchange from btc to monero and withdrawals monero, what is the limit per day untill will request verification?
nobody knows for sure. unless things have changed recently, bitfinex does not publish withdrawal limits, even for unverified accounts. that means your withdrawals are "unlimited"---that is, until your account activity triggers their internal AML controls: As per our Terms of Service, we reserve the right to ask for KYC information at any point in time if your account activity raises flags. it could be deposit/withdrawal volume that raises flags. it could be the source of your coins. it could be how you log in or where you log in from. nobody knows the exact mechanisms, and they are probably frequently changing too. you just have to be aware that at any time, your coins could be frozen, and you might be subjected to KYC. thus you should minimize the amount you have on deposit at any given time, in case you aren't willing to verify and would prefer to lose the coins instead. |
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The US SEC is so tough on the crypto industry nowadays, especially restricting US citizens from participating in ICOs, IEOs and other forms of token sales (unless Brock Pierce wins the next election lol). I just wonder how would they crackdown DeFi in the next few years or so. in truth they haven't been that heavy handed. as of this past february, the SEC had only filed charges against 27 ICOs since 2016. by comparison, there have been ~6000 ICOs in total across the industry. https://www.coindesk.com/now-more-than-ever-serc-is-scrutinizing-unregistered-token-offeringsseveral (if not most) of those cases involved severe defrauding of investors---not just run of the mill ICOs where they shouldn't have allowed americans to participate in the offering. also, it was only a few months ago that hester peirce proposed the 3 year safe harbor provision for ICOs. that would give companies 3 years to adequately decentralize their platforms or establish their tokens as utility tokens before facing any adverse action from the SEC. maybe the SEC will adopt her proposal. |
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i got a text this morning from a nocoiner asking me my thoughts about "the big bitcoin hack" that happened yesterday. i lol'd. i'm not thrilled about the optics, tbh. hacking obama and biden and other high profile accounts and associating that with a bitcoin scam? awesome news! i'm just thankful they left trump's account alone. he would probably take it as a personal affront otherwise, and launch into some anti-crypto directive. this saved ~zero people from getting scammed. |
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Where is the crew? All set and ready for Sunday?! there is a small chance i won't make it, might be out of town on business, but i'm hoping to push things back until monday. if i'm not home, i'll still pull a @sygambler special and blind out into some points..... I definitely need a good finish or else things will be getting hard and I will miss out the Grand Final 3/3... Pathetic really! Should that happen, I will kindly ask you for a series 4 Grand Final wild card! interesting idea. |
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