My bad.  Off-by 2 error.


And war. And genocide.

The dilemma suggested: Malevolence or incompetence.  If this dilemma is not a false one, abductively we can conclude: Competent persons of good will are bullish.

The argument is formally correct, but it's soundness depends upon a consistent binding of the ground-terms to the prevailing circumstance.

Maybe the carping and bickering is more appropriate to the Monero Improvement thread.  

As regards speculation as to failure scenarios, the hardfork heartbeat implies that only problems which are not anticipated in time to be fixed by a hardfork can become existential threats.
In cases of fire the core have proven themselves by highly capable, responsive and proactive engagement in past scenarios.

The likelihood of stagnation seems pretty low, given the persistent improvement pattern and ongoing expansion of high-quality mindshare.  Certainly stagnation is always a possibility, in which case new hands would most likely take up the work, and bring the period of stagnation to an end, but even that soft failure mode ( really just a delay, and a degree of lost opportunity) seems less than probable, on the face of things.

I do wish smooth would show up more often here.  It is his thread and could benefit from his occasional attention.  But it's not like smooth was ever a big technical contributor, so I don't see his distraction as an indication of stagnation, but rather simply that his other interests make him a weaker core member than he could have been.

How?

I am a thorough-going Bayesian, so I think the posterior is conditioned on the prior.  My priors favor a scenario in which $25 XMR is the central estimate for 2018 average.  Past 2018 there are too many conditional factors of unknown distribution to provide credible intervals for inference, so I prefer not to make estimates past that point, but if a $25 average, or higher, were realized in 2018, then it would seem less unlikely than you suggest.  Until then, I can't or won't say.

I think so.  Bitcoin use is growing, but XMR is likely to displace a lot of the current use cases over the next 2 years, so selling seems stupid, so supply is likely to be tight and demand high.  Yes there are some stupid or greedy holders, so maybe you can scoop the occasional dump, but mostly, no, not gonna happen.

You've definitely got a pirate thing going on.  You might enjoy "One-piece”, if you like anime.

2 DNMs is exp(2) times better.  SR took BTC to 1bn USD cap.  Given the more competitive landscape, I think 10-20 USD XMR is a pretty safe range expectation after actual usage on the order of 10% of markets are has been established.  This will grow over time, slowly, and once cap is on the order of 400mm USD, with XMR in the region of 1oz Ag, XMR should be liquid enough to start using it as a SME/agency transaction channel for smallish, sensitive, transfers.  (Although, modulo usability concerns, I am sure the Mossad will prefer zcash, the FSB and CIA are likely to prefer Monero.)

That is when things really get interesting, about 2 years from now, simultaneous with global hyperinflation.  (Timing could not be better.) You see, when that happens it becomes eligible as a high net-worth individuals reserve diversification, as the DNM stigma is diluted. Think about the trillions in antiquities and jewels stored in freeport warehouses in Singapore and Switzerland, etc., out of view of prying tax collectors! How much more liquidity and growth potential if those cultural artifacts were replaced with Monero? Bitcoin is just not a candidate due to chain transparency.  It will be a good time for XMR holders to collect art, then, as supply/demand balance will be favorable for a few years. 

But I do tend to get ahead of myself...

FTFY.  Oasis implementation is not a real, deployed, usable thing yet, AFAIK.  I guess we are in "buy the rumor" mode, but I think the news will be followed by fundamentals-driven appreciation, so I am sympathetic - yeah, you are so right.

I think sales volume on one market will be an important signal to other markets, but we are a long way from that right now.  Probably it won't be a factor until the GUI is official.

Still, this ramp can go a long ways yet, on rumor and speculation.  It is just brutally hard to get Monero at this price.  Unfortunately we seem to be heading to a bubble-spike, which means an over-reactive correction will come, and a lot of discovery will happen before any significant market use can begin in earnest at some quasi-stable price.  Probably near 10 usd, and probably not for a few months yet.

The more you learn about it, the more impressed you may become.

In an alt speculation thread, you must pardon my skepticism of the basis of your voiced awe.  My priors would have that your statement is based on the nominal tripling since the beginning of June.  I admit that by trading standards, it is fair to call that performance impressive, but to my mind it is one of the least impressive, and in fact distracting, and ephemeral features of Monero.

The most impressive aspect of Monero, to me, is the character of its leadership, the core team.  

Second would be the exquisitely tuned feature set implemented by the reference implementation.  

Third would be the deeply informed cryptographic design of its basic protocols.  

Fourth would be the maturity and knowledgeability of its community.

Fifth would be the scope and, in light of the political-economic context of our times, the credibility of its ambitions.

I could go on, but my purpose is only to signal that there is more here than meets the eye of a casual observer, and it may behoove you to look more deeply, and do the diligence required to find out why Monero is, as the title of one book about Monero would have it, "Better than Bitcoin".  If you are lucky, by the time you have done that homework, the price will be lower, so that you can own more of it.  If you are unlucky, you will end up buying at whatever multiple of the current price the market has meanwhile discovered.

Somewhere near the bottom of my list would be the early birthpangs of price volatility down in the noise of a low cap alt, unknown to, and unowned by, all but a handful of enthusiasts.

Our first (¿) direct mass-scale fiat burner: http://blog.coincut.com/2016/08/17/buy-dash-ethereum-monero-gbp-wallets

Sell me some monero, I command you!

Welp, there I go again.  My book is all bids now.  Good luck my little bids... Try not to chase anything up the mountain!

*This*.

No one loses from XMR discovering its value.  The more fiat we burn, the better it is for everyone on the planet, and when large holders are flush with value, they will much more abundantly fund development, and distribute XMR much more broadly in the process.  XMR is tracing out bitcoin's precedents, but having learned from its mistakes.  Were the environment not so much more competitive and hostile, it would be seeing much greater success than ever bitcoin did.

...and breakout.

Meanwhile I see a pretty massive bull flag on the XMRBTC chart.

I suspect that many impressions would pay me back personally within a matter of days, if it were easy to buy XMR with fiat.  As it is, not so much.

If those AdWords estimates hold up, for 50 XMR per diem, burning 4 intro accounts daily we would get 200,000 hits on we.use.cash, and 6,000,000 people each day being exposed to Monero as private secure and fungible.  I think that might shake things up a bit.  Need a few weeks of GUI burn-in first, though.

For $25 (with a $75 coupon) AdWords estimates I can get 50,000 clicks out of 1,500,000 impressions for this, on my keyword mix:

Preview
Anonymous bitcoin: Monero - Private, secure, and fungible
Ad www.weuse.cash
Don't expose yourself to criminals extortionists thieves. Protect your privacy.

Page
http://weuse.cash/2016/06/09/btc-xmr-zcash/

Never having used it, I am not so sure of their numbers.  Anyhow, just a thought.

You miss the point.  It's not a boycott of genocide.  It's avoiding a honeypot.