Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.
Its not the theory which fails, its the application. Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout. yes, but how many times are necessary? the technique you just described is exactly what many TA-naysayers hate -- constant re-drawing of arbitrary lines that wait for a confirmation to be validated after-the-fact. these methods are not predictive and are of little use. --arepo Oh yeah? How about your approach??? Is it more "functional"? "Fuck scientific observation of proving points of view... my gut always gets the right answers, because im just a bull and this will never go down." How different is that from... "hmm i think this definetly will go down... hhmm confirmation point for a trend change is $xx... oh $xx reached, this will go up!" EDIT: one is BullShit, the other is open to change... ;P |
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Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.
Its not the theory which fails, its the application. Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout. |
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We had a false breakout... triangle still in form. Now better formed though.
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Redrawing the lines of the triangle doesn't make it a triangle lol...unless it is a moving triangle.
TA lots of time is skewed towards the bias of the observer.
"it looks like its doing a bearish triangle....yep triangle is still in tact"
"okay here is the new triangle...still in tact"
"triangle?"
http://thepatternsite.com/dt.html  |
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BUeno, parece que durante el fin de semana la tendencia ha sido relativamente plana ¿ que esperais los expertos para la semana entrante ?
Saludos
http://thepatternsite.com/dt.html |
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Triangle seems to be braking up
EDIT: maybe retesting Weekly BB
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Look at the timescales involved. We barely tanked to the point of where hyperbolic growth started. And press interest & Google trends hasn't followed the price this time.
i stand by the determination that this pattern isn't just a bubble. we were riding an incredibly strong rally, if everyone can just put their despair aside for a second. look at the timescales involved in the June '11 pattern -- we're way off track. this is something completely different. not saying that it immediately follows that we should go up, but all this bubble talk is getting old as we've long broken that pattern. and it's not just "it's different this time", it's more "it doesn't even look like a bubble anymore". we retraced 80% in about three days -- wtf was that? more like a massive market correction. i think the market is becoming more efficient. from what i gather, most of the weak hands were shook out already or else we wouldn't have made it to $160 in the first place. --arepo I feel ya brothe... keep it up... you are strong. ;p |
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Lucif, this is my count, what you think?  |
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Esta es mi cuenta para la semana próxima... |
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La cuenta sigue siendo la misma. Ya mismo caemos.
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Hola siulynot, siempre espero con atención tus aportes. Que tendría que pasar para que no se cumpliera tu pronostico? Que a partir del lunes subiera hasta la resistencia de 180?
La bajada debajo de $140 garantizó que no iremos a los $180. De aqui en adelante es bajada. En unas horas nos iremos debajo de $120. |
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Illustration for siulynot post  Yep, exactly that.  |
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I think if 120-130 level will be broken down, Houston will have a problem.
imo we are at a 4 of I of (C) (the big C). So yes, it will break down. Triangle fits perfect with a wave 4 |
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bitsalame, go fuck yourself. I think that bunch of sma's at 120-130 can be broken by bearish horizontal triangle.  Better be ready to short then. |
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Bueno, $120 ha resistido. Si sigue aguantando la tendencia alcista no se ha roto.
Entre hoy y mañana, $120 rompe. |
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Bueno, ya sabemos lo que pasó realmente y me gustaría destacar este ejemplo para describir porqué usar noticias es muy negativo para la especulación del precio. Las noticias son totalmente irrelevantes a la conducta del precio y tomar decisiones a base de lo que piensas generaría una noticia es muy arriesgado.  No hay nada mejor que estudiar lo que realmente te dice el mercado a través de los aspectos técnicos como el volumen, las tendnecias, los patrones, los osciladores y muchas otras características técnicas. |
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Están perdiendo de perspectiva MUCHO....
Lo que el OP menciona arriba no es manipulación, es que si yo voy a vender 1000btc a $133 y en $133 sólo hay 500btc, cuando venda, se eliminarán los 500btc en el lado de compras, pero aparecerán 500btc más en el lado d elas ventas porque mi venta no ha sido completada y yo especifiqué que fuera a $133.
De la misma forma el precio baja si hay 10btc en $137, 10 en $136 y 10 en $135 y yo quiero vender 50 btc. Si yo quiero vender y veo la profundidad sé que el precio ideal para vender debe estar cerca de los $133 para que mi órden se complete y no se quede pendiente. Por lo que vendo a $133 unos 50btc lo que hacen que el precio baje de $137 a $133 por la poca profundidad.
No es manipulación, es la pelea que siempre va a haber en un precio determinado.
Otra cosa que suele atribuirsele a "manipuladores" es la aceleración del precio y las paredes subsiguientes que se forman. Esto es lo que se considera el panic sell. Consiste en que hay un punto clave para las personas (por ejemplo ayer los $140 eran un punto clave). Si alguien vende y el precio baja de $140 automáticamente se acelera la bajada porque todo el mundo reaciona a la misma vez y lo que hacen las ventas a precio de mercado es comerse todas las paredes debajo de $140 en unos segundos.
Me explico, $140 puede ser el punto de salida para muchos, pero sólo el primero que venda a ese precio será el que mejor precio obtendra, todos los demás reaccionarán después del que tomó la iniciativa y no va haber oferta de de $140 para todos, por lo que el precio se desploma rápido.
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It can ONLY go up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  |
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