https://www.bctip.org/This is a brilliant (and quick) implementation of a recommendation posted on Reddit yesterday. It is a great way to leave additional tips to get people interested in bitcoin out in the real world. I literally can't wait to start trying it out.
|
|
|
|
Yeah this is a HUGE deal. Can you say leapfrogging technology? |
|
|
|
- Negativity Bias(bears)
- Optimist Bias(bulls)
- Hindsight Bias
- Confirmation Bias
- Bias Blind Spot
- Cogntive Dissonance
- Ad-Hoc Hypothesizing
- Apophenia
- Subjective Validation
- Gambler's Fallacy
- Expectation Bias
- Dunning–Kruger Effect
- Selective Recall
- Rosy Retrospection
excellent post, and excellent list.  cognitive science and the deconstruction of biases has always fascinated me. have you read anything by Daniel Dennett? pretty much any predictive science only operates when enough rigor is maintained that the effects of these biases can be controlled, and it is difficult to tell just from analysis that is posted on these forums how rigorous the practitioner's methods are. Excellent post indeed. I know that its very much a conscious exercise for me when trying to predict future price direction. You have to be extremely aware and critical of your own motivations and emotional attachments if you want to have any chance of success. |
|
|
|
Outwhat?
OUTSIDE! Kind of a new MMRPG... The graphics are amazing This game sucks. Why are you guys praising it so much? -The PvP is a lie. You get a debuff called jail. -You don't even get to choose the initial details of your character. -The graphics suck for a lot of people. They need a third-party program just to make everything focus. -You die ONCE, and they close your freaking account. What a jip! -You think the class system is unbalanced? See how they handle race! -You have to go through a tutorial for the first 18 levels, and your stats start to go down after level 30. -And after level 18, there is a subscription price, and it REALLY steep! I got more, but it's off-topic... I lol'd |
|
|
|
|
It's not a bad plan - but honestly it requires much more time/ patience/ strategy then simply holding... and if you are believe in it long term, you remove 50% of your profit potential by keeping that much in fiat.
full disclosure: I keep about 15% in fiat (im part of the wall at 120) and use a similar strategy, just far lower %.
|
|
|
|
Has Lucif even once predicted the price to go up? All I see is down down down from him, even when it went up later. How serious can we take this analysis if the support holds at $120 and we start moving up again soon?
When we passed 100 or so I think he finally gave up and bought. You can check out the posts a few dozen pages back. That lasted for at least, oh 2 days  |
|
|
|
|
This is just "the coil" as Lucif calls it (when his bid was sold into anyway). Expect a vicious burst out next week.
|
|
|
|
- The developer's main initial project is undisclosed right now for competitive reasons, but I hope to have it ready in a month.
- I do not actively monitor this thread, though I probably should. I apologize.
Mind giving us a dash of insight as to what this undisclosed project is themed around? eg. new games etc, site stability, alt coin implimentation, chat feature? I understand if you might wish to be vague but please at least provide some detail of the illusive new project. Another thing you missed mentioning in your bulk reply was the issue surrounding the 100btc /month payment for the I.T guy/s. You of all people should be well aware of the issue of a flat rate in btc. After working with bitinstant who's main goal is to facilitate a workaround to the constantly fluctating price of bitcoin, you'd imagine you'd take into account the fact that 100 bitcoins are almost certaintly not going to have the same spending power each month. And in the case of a massive spike in value that 100 bitcoin could the total profit of the site (while still being inline with the average profit value) Care to make a comment on any of this please Erik? The agreement was 100btc with a cap of USD $5k in value. So the next expense will be significantly lower, and will be changed in the near future again as the new head developer takes over. Great, thanks Erik. |
|
|
|
That total lack of action is killing me.
I hear theres a place called outside where interesting things sometimes happen. I wouldnt know though. |
|
|
|
Look at the timescales involved. We barely tanked to the point of where hyperbolic growth started. And press interest & Google trends hasn't followed the price this time.
i stand by the determination that this pattern isn't just a bubble. we were riding an incredibly strong rally, if everyone can just put their despair aside for a second. look at the timescales involved in the June '11 pattern -- we're way off track. this is something completely different. not saying that it immediately follows that we should go up, but all this bubble talk is getting old as we've long broken that pattern. and it's not just "it's different this time", it's more "it doesn't even look like a bubble anymore". we retraced 80% in about three days -- wtf was that? more like a massive market correction. i think the market is becoming more efficient. from what i gather, most of the weak hands were shook out already or else we wouldn't have made it to $160 in the first place. --arepo Indeed. Greed is a hell of a drug though. |
|
|
|
1. Everything fundamental is growing stronger each day.
What exactly has happened to make the fundamentals stronger? People don't care about DDos as much as they used to anymore, but even then the last time Mt got Ddos'ed for more than an hour the price shot down - and then quickly up. Exchanges are really weak at this point. 4 of them have been shut in one week because banks closed their accounts. What happens if mt's account is closed? We go from 137 to 5. Until we get a robust exchange which is likely within a few months, I think the price is hugely overvalued. It might in the very short term go up to 160 again, but the trendline is down for a bit because it is just too risky to invest at 140 and those that might buy would be very jumpy. Moreover, the press attention reaches a saturation point. Most people have herd about bitcoins now. Most certainly everyone that works in finance has herd about them but even your mom and dad has herd about them with bitcoins having been mentioned in the news all over. Whoever has wanted to buy has done so or will finish doing so this month or next. Institutional investors might think of getting on board, but stocks give good returns, are certain to be worth at least half their price and are safe for the investment manager to invest in. On the other hand, bitcoins is of the highest risk, the price has no stability so the investment would need to be actively managed which is quite expensive and the market is quite small for big money so it is even more difficult to buy the thing which is quite a big consideration considering how difficult it is to buy even for the avarage joe. For these reasons, unless we get some big good news, the bear has killed the cat. There are many fundamental reasons why it's shooting up. It started with Reddit & Wordpress and most recently its the fact that China has taken the lead in bitcoin-qt downloads. http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/bitcoin-0.8.1/bitcoin-0.8.1-win32-setup.exe/stats/map?dates=2013-04-20+to+2013-04-26Is this only for 0.8.1 or does it take into account earlier versions too? Here's the data for all: http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/mapChina isnt #1 there, but still quite strong. It could be that at some point in the quite near future the west might not be leading the charge in terms of adoption. |
|
|
|
1. Everything fundamental is growing stronger each day.
What exactly has happened to make the fundamentals stronger? People don't care about DDos as much as they used to anymore, but even then the last time Mt got Ddos'ed for more than an hour the price shot down - and then quickly up. Exchanges are really weak at this point. 4 of them have been shut in one week because banks closed their accounts. What happens if mt's account is closed? We go from 137 to 5. Until we get a robust exchange which is likely within a few months, I think the price is hugely overvalued. It might in the very short term go up to 160 again, but the trendline is down for a bit because it is just too risky to invest at 140 and those that might buy would be very jumpy. Moreover, the press attention reaches a saturation point. Most people have herd about bitcoins now. Most certainly everyone that works in finance has herd about them but even your mom and dad has herd about them with bitcoins having been mentioned in the news all over. Whoever has wanted to buy has done so or will finish doing so this month or next. Institutional investors might think of getting on board, but stocks give good returns, are certain to be worth at least half their price and are safe for the investment manager to invest in. On the other hand, bitcoins is of the highest risk, the price has no stability so the investment would need to be actively managed which is quite expensive and the market is quite small for big money so it is even more difficult to buy the thing which is quite a big consideration considering how difficult it is to buy even for the avarage joe. For these reasons, unless we get some big good news, the bear has killed the cat. There are many fundamental reasons why it's shooting up. It started with Reddit & Wordpress and most recently its the fact that China has taken the lead in bitcoin-qt downloads. http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/bitcoin-0.8.1/bitcoin-0.8.1-win32-setup.exe/stats/map?dates=2013-04-20+to+2013-04-26 |
|
|
|
Who will want to pay MORE fees to use bitcoin when it is not necessary?
Those who dont want to take the time to figure out how to use a paper wallet for example. i.e. alot of people. |
|
|
|
That's possible since the paypal founder invested in a bitcoin company. They like the idea.
What did I miss? o.0 |
|
|
|
extremly low volume. Its mean that crash is just around the corner.
So when the price goes up to $165-170 can I point out how wrong you were? You can point out whatever in this thread but nobody would read it as the thread is tooooooo fast. I want additional buttons for users here like the ignore button. Market expert, Manipulator and Clueless idiot. These buttons and the resulting feedback could be hidden outside the speculation subforum. that would be awesome. |
|
|
|
X-posted from my other post:
"The real value for the consumer here is the FDIC insured, household brand name wallet that makes them feel safe and cuddly when they hold their bitcoins there. Make no mistake about it, this is the smart and only play."
The biggest hole in bitcoin right now (for the majority of online users) is security and Paypal fills this hole with flying colors. They dont have to do anything else and people will happily pay 1-3% on every transaction just for the peace of mind of knowing its in a safe place and you dont have to be an expert in cryptography to store it. This is a no brainer in terms of strategy.
So you propose Paypal to become a "bitcoin bank". They guarantee your funds for a %. It's indeed a service needed for a BTC wider adoption, but it is not Paypal's core business. And BTW, Paypal's core business is endangered by BTC, just because Paypal is that "trusted third-party" you don't need any more to transfer your money electronically. Well, more than guarantee your funds, they also get back their status as an all in one payment solution (they were that before bitcoin...). That is nonsense, because Bitcoin was designed so you don't need to place any trust on a third-party, thus is a natural enemy for Paypal. Paypal is that "trusted third party" to which you rely in order to transact electronically with your money. With Bitcoin you don't need to use a third party, but how big is the learning curve to do so with safety? This is an enormous hurdle - Paypal isn't stupid, they know what the hurdles are and the potential market share + extra margin they could make on the transfers. |
|
|
|
X-posted from my other post:
"The real value for the consumer here is the FDIC insured, household brand name wallet that makes them feel safe and cuddly when they hold their bitcoins there. Make no mistake about it, this is the smart and only play."
The biggest hole in bitcoin right now (for the majority of online users) is security and Paypal fills this hole with flying colors. They dont have to do anything else and people will happily pay 1-3% on every transaction just for the peace of mind of knowing its in a safe place and you dont have to be an expert in cryptography to store it. This is a no brainer in terms of strategy.
So you propose Paypal to become a "bitcoin bank". They guarantee your funds for a %. It's indeed a service needed for a BTC wider adoption, but it is not Paypal's core business. And BTW, Paypal's core business is endangered by BTC, just because Paypal is that "trusted third-party" you don't need any more to transfer your money electronically. Well, more than simply guarantee your funds (as you say, act as a bank of sorts), they also get back their status as an all in one payment solution (they were that before bitcoin...). Also, It's clear you dont need Paypal to send bitcoin - you dont need paypal to send cash either (wire transfer), but there is a value add in the service they provide. This is enough niche for them to continue making billions as a financial services beast, whether we like it or not. edited for clarity |
|
|
|
|
X-posted from my other post:
"The real value for the consumer here is the FDIC insured, household brand name wallet that makes them feel safe and cuddly when they hold their bitcoins there. Make no mistake about it, this is the smart and only play."
The biggest hole in bitcoin right now (for the majority of online users) is security and Paypal fills this hole with flying colors. They dont have to do anything else and people will happily pay 1-3% on every transaction just for the peace of mind of knowing its in a safe place and you dont have to be an expert in cryptography to store it. This is a no brainer in terms of strategy.
|
|
|
|
|
Started out with 1, then moved to 2 and now we are well into 3. (Winklevii, Silicon Valley etc... this is not speculation)
If I had to speculate on those who are buying over the last few weeks many from google, western union + paypal are all increasing their share before any external announcements are made.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
