no more coins on gox beyond 550. but i still have no idea how next week will play out …
$25 million on Gox on orderbook vs 12k BTC. ATH and ATL respectively. If Gox USD issues are as real as people say, the PANIC buying to move out BTC at considerable loss could be epic. If Mark wanted, he could just pay the whole $25M from his left pocket (by selling BTC into it) and then Mt.Gox would not be short any USD. |
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Excellent synthesis on the actual mechanisms of control. I've long held the opinion that the most important thing about todays system of schooling is not the content of the curriculum, but the structure of the whole activity in schools. Sort of like Marshall McLuhans "the Media is the Message" - it doesn't matter what is ON TV, what matters is that TV, as a medium influences thought and action in a certain way, regardless of what content is shown.
So what do our schools teach us? The first thing they teach you is that you are not the sovereign master of your time. They teach you that all your life, there will be predetermined periods of time, during which you have to be at a certain location, doing specific things. After that you will generously get some "free time".
Next thing you learn is that there is exactly one correct answer for everything and don't bother trying to come up with it yourself, we already have, so just memorize it.
And do NOT question authority. Mistakes are wrong, be afraid of mistakes, you will be punished for them.
All in all these places stifle creative thinking and personal development, reinforce conformity and submissiveness to authority. In other words they achieve their goal splendidly. What goal? George Carlin pointed it out years ago: the point of schools is to create obedient workers. Just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork and just dumb enough to passively accept all the rigged bullshit of this system.
Well put! IMHO the issue with the current system is across the board our "thought leaders" (i.e. those in positions to advise and create/influence policy) are universally those who bought into the conformity of thinking you described so well. Just look at the path one HAS to go through to become a FED chairman. It requires going to a top economics program, accepting the concensus line of thinking as fact, and becoming highly regarded in that field by publishing papers that most other experts agree with. By definition, those who go outside the norm are not seen positively and do not advance in the field. Engineering/science fields are at least grounded in a physcial world, it is possible to later prove who is right, but economics & public policy have no such feedback mechanism and as a result can go down false paths for generations. Worse is these fields are coruptable due to their proximity to money/power politics. |
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We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time.
wow, you bearish?  The definition of trendline is that (about) half of the time price is over the trend, and half of the time it is under the trend. It is therefore smart to buy when price is below trendline, and sell if it goes too high above it. I do not easily recommend selling for trading purposes, because buy&hold works better. But if you have been in it for a long time and want to sell periodically, we have just entered the period where it makes sense to sell. Don't forget that if we spend significant time significantly above your trendline... ...you should re-draw your trendline Sure. With this methodology it is easy, because the datapoints are monthly weighted averages and new points are added only once per month. December target based on Jan2009-Oct2013 is $404. I do not suggest anyone to buy above $700 this year, it is likely a bubble and you can likely buy cheaper next year if you just wait. Furthermore, I have pounded the table extremely hard from about $195 (the only time I pounded so hard before was February), and everyone wanting to enter in based on my advice should have done it by now. But do not speculate - unless you intend to permanently start lowering the number of your bitcoins, do not sell. |
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And now for something simple buying and selling advice:
We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time.
wow, you bearish? The definition of trendline is that (about) half of the time price is over the trend, and half of the time it is under the trend. It is therefore smart to buy when price is below trendline, and sell if it goes too high above it. I do not easily recommend selling for trading purposes, because buy&hold works better. But if you have been in it for a long time and want to sell periodically, we have just entered the period where it makes sense to sell. ADD: [Re: trading based on trendline] With this methodology it is easy, because the datapoints are monthly weighted averages and new points are added only once per month. December target based on Jan2009-Oct2013 is $404. I do not suggest anyone to buy above $700 this year, it is likely a bubble and you can likely buy cheaper next year if you just wait. Furthermore, I have pounded the table extremely hard from about $195 (the only time I pounded so hard before was February), and everyone wanting to enter in based on my advice should have done it by now. But do not speculate - unless you intend to permanently start lowering the number of your bitcoins, do not sell. |
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We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time.
wow, you bearish? The definition of trendline is that (about) half of the time price is over the trend, and half of the time it is under the trend. It is therefore smart to buy when price is below trendline, and sell if it goes too high above it. I do not easily recommend selling for trading purposes, because buy&hold works better. But if you have been in it for a long time and want to sell periodically, we have just entered the period where it makes sense to sell. |
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Expect some resistance:
Seems legit. Anyway, if we follow that purple line indefinitely, I'm not complaining  We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time. If the price dipped to $400 right now, would you buy? $350? $300? The fewer buyers, the more vicious the crash will be. I think that if we go down from here, it will be 2-3 months maximum until we get back. Also $266 will not be violated. By bitcoin standards, this should hardly even be called a correction... |
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Expect some resistance:
Seems legit. |
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the lack of volume pushing us here is disturbing.
These days it is much more difficult to estimate volume. More exchanges, some have free trading, much more opportunities to trade extra-exchange etc. I am not worried about that, it is a different game now. But - It is true that exchanges are now very vulnerable to engineered crashes. BTC10k market order would take Gox down by $100 (20%). If topping the April rally took a million bitcoins as some claim, now BTC100,000 is handsomely enough. Exchanges still gauge the price despite their low share of the total volume. Conclusion is that you should never sell to sinking or low prices. Only sell high, if ever. That keeps the manipulators in check, because they cannot be sure to be able to buy back cheaper. Also you have no chance to ever lose. Any longer term (6-12 months or longer) it matters absolutely nothing at all what kind of boom or crash there is in between. Bitcoin's viability as a technology is not dependent on that. |
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the US has a fairly low savings rate compared with the rest of the world. Americans save between 11-12% of GDP per year. If we were to apply this savings rate to Bitcoin, already knowing the future path of the Bitcoin money supply, a problem starts to emerge–were 11.5% of Bitcoins saved per year, by 2021, 95.3% of the entire supply of the currency will have been stashed away as savings rendering commerce effectively impossible. A system of credit can be built on top of the Bitcoin economy (and most likely will be built), but while this can push back the date at which savings account for too large a share of the entire economy, it can only delay the inevitable. At some point, Bitcoins saved will start to approach total Bitcoins in circulation, making commerce effectively impossible. The above shows absolutely no understanding of self-adjusting mechanisms (like markets). I appreciate your point concerning the blow-off top which comes in 18-36 months, and that the current structures (continuous harassment by banks, capital gains tax, flybynight exchanges, fear to disclose holdings) do not support the distribution of coins from big stashes to small. Therefore both the majority will be trapped with no opportunity to buy coins (statistical majority - each individual can buy as much as he wants), and the minority will have a difficulty in diversifying/unloading. If for example I smell the top when USD/BTC is $194,538 and want to sell a paltry BTC3,582.64 for $696,900,000, there are many kind of hassles. I would not regard it as realistic for any large holder to sell near the top unless they are willing to take the risk and employ leverage in conjunction with actual selling of bitcoins. |
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many engineers - - 'd just figure adoption would occur because everybody would read Satoshi's white paper.
I read the paper about a week ago. LOL. Especially as I studied engineering And still no bitcoin software... |
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Bump, and bookmark  |
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0.01BTC to dree12 for an update
Why not just anyone? Data is not proprietary.. for me, BTC0.01 for 10 minutes work is not enough but for someone it could be... |
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one month of days over $200 will be a good landmark
I say over $300 next year my friend dont blink So smoothie was right again. I don't see 20 days in a row over $300 dont blink |
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one month of days over $200 will be a good landmark
I say over $300 next year my friend dont blink So smoothie was right again. |
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My long-term goal would be to fix the problems I've identified, and having more people with BTC ready to trade is an advantage.
I think Bitcoin is not even close to the bleak future: - The 20 years until mining rewards fall below gold's inflation rate is actually a very long time - Political decision-making is very slow, and there will not be uniform 100%+ tax on bitcoins in every country ever, rather I would expect tax competition between countries and blocks, and CGT-free zones like Germany currently is - Instawallet type services can keep almost complete anonymity, because you don't divulge personal information in any step (not exactly know about IP stuff) - Generating altcoins is easy - People do not want to be controlled, which severely limits the opportunities to use the control material against them (illegitimacy problem). Smart people will not want to work for oppressive govt, limiting its potential. Govt also gets only a fraction of things done per man-hour because of its design. - USA is getting more and more isolated, it is not impossible that the outcome will be a peaceful implosion like USSR. Others: how would you increase the number of bitcoin users in the next 18 months? I have given everyone of my friends who ask, BTC0.25 in Facebook. If you give too little, they will forget about it or not interested in receiving. If you give too much, they will feel uneasy towards you and are prone to sell it. Giving in general does not work, for the reasons AnonyMint outlined above. Only if people give real value in return, will the exchange increase general well-being by making both parties better off. (With half-forced giving, you never know if either party is better off afterwards. Same with tax, you lose definitely, but in most cases also society loses.) |
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If you want some people to be included, please do a little bit of work and send me (via PM) links about the happenings where they have revealed to be large holders. (It is not that I remember exactly the bitcoinica hack numbers, for example.) The better information you send, the better the list will be. I don't have full time people to work on this, it is completely forum effort. *** Currently the AHA group is something I am much interested in. Because if it is likely that Satoshi is among them, some of the coins may be double-counted. The single-entity-controls-Bitcoin -theory is as old as the coin, and I think we cannot dismiss it just because of our wishes. I have previously heard that this entity would control about 2.5-3 million bitcoins (incl Satoshi's 1 million known coins). - Can someone point to me, what was the likely explanation for the entity "A" (2.9M BTC), according to Ron-Shamir paper p. 11. |
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I heard that Falkvinge sold (out) in this spring intermediate top..? Any links  |
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I thus assume you don't get the point. Redistributing money does not decentralize it. It is worse than flushing it down a toilet (worse because it creates the wrong incentives and behavior for the recipients). The only way that capital can be distributed productively is when people produce something for it because they then make local decisions about optimum (i.e. profitable) resource allocation. If you understand fitness and simulated annealing, then you understand everything else is inefficient. Inefficient doesn't reach a less ideal equilibrium, rather it is a death spiral.
You do have the skill to make everything sound bleak  Great post, still. |
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This is absolutely a Trojan designed to sucker all you naive selfish people into mixing your capital with drug dealers, human traffickers, pedophiles, etc and to track you and label you as destroyers of the global economy.
This is so they can blame the socialism debt bubble on you.
Rothschild and Soros are some clever fucks. And you eat it right from their hand.
I think you suffer from overly negative worldview. If you only take into account the negative testimony of how fucked the USA is, how fucked EU is, how fucked China, Russia, Japan, India, Brazil, etc. are, and not any of the positive developments, you end up depressed and unable to work or enjoy life. As if it was Satan who created the world and decides what happens in people's lives (hint: it is God instead). Rothschilds' control is not a static iron grip over all the countries in the world and every one of their elected governments. It fluctuates and they suffer setbacks in their pursuits as well as we do in ours. Where they have done well is general "education" which has made people in general quite crooked in basic understanding (the majority of people in Finland love big brother, otherwise they would not vote for it, so the politicians will make crooked decisions based on their crooked understanding, even when there is no direct command). But they do not currently have the resources to globally effect "killing the 350,000 largest bitcoin holders or taxing them over 100% of their holdings which cleverly puts them in tax debt prison because the sums involved are so huge". That is so fantastic that I will rather help my friends to make millions, and put them in good use, and then wait for the blacklist to be issued. If you refuse to buy bitcoins despite the fact that the FBI claims they are legal, just based on your theory that they are a trap and will be used to mark you for slaughter - my friend, then "they" have already overcome, making your life miserable and depriving from you the fruit of speculation. And if there is Cambodia style purge, you will not be spared anyway. ** I actually think this is on topic. To make any use of the trend, it is highly important to know when it is expected to change. I still believe that simple exponential line is adequate to model the trend of the exchange rate, and that there will be a huge bubble in the end, followed by oscillating crash á la SlipperySlope. Smaller booms and retracements may be traded according to whether they are above or below trendline. Currently we are slightly above the trendline. |
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"Everything that can be done, will be done" -sirius. Since bitcoin is designed to be non-anonymous, there will be such a database. Sirius has been working on an even greater database of the totality of everything you have publicly done. He realizes it can be used for nefarious purposes, but says that since the oppressors have access to the data anyway, the good guys should have it also. |
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