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Go work on the solution then!
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The key result of this analysis is that we should not expect the current exponential growth of bitcoin prices to last more than 36-48 months - even under the most bullish imaginable scenario. Buy sooner rather than later is my obvious conclusion.
The speculative bubbles always see a blowoff top, which is characterized by steepening slope in the price curve (ie. "going parabolic" instead of just "exponential"). In this sense your curve can only be correct if we expect an overshoot of a hefty magnitude over the trendline. In 2011 the price reached 50x the trend, last spring 4 times, now we are already 1.3 times. If the final bubble is a mere 10 times the long-term valuation, we are talking about $50 million per coin. If otoh your line is used to predict the bubble top, it is drawn incorrectly from the general price trend. If your point was to say that after 36-48 months we will start the ascension to Alpha Centauri, then we certainly agree, and the most sensible timing for purchase is NOW.  |
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Goldbugs want only the yang and want capital to be absolute.
The most productive period per annum in the history of mankind was 1871-1913, the time of the gold standard. (Disagree?) - Money supply was not only bullion, it was augmented with real bills. (Real bills can be implemented with bitcoin, if bitcoin is the quote currency.) - Debt was kept in check by the natural mechanism as debt was not money, only bullion was (and real bills acted as money without strictly being that). |
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Well, nobody ever went broke taking profits
The only way you take profits in bitcoin is to buy some. The cheaper you buy, the more profits you take. Spending bitcoins may be fun, but I wouldn't call it profits...  Goxbux is showing the way how all bux will be treated in not so distant future. |
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A million μBTC question is therefore, is the slope of the trend changing, to more closely resemble that of 2010-11?
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In 2010 an ounce of gold could buy 40000 bitcoins.
Now it can buy less than 4.
As a result of these developments, right now I have neither 4 ounces of gold nor 40,000 bitcoins.  |
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First time I turned down Bitcoin, it was going for a quarter per.
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Why, that would just be plain stealing, wouldn't it, Mr. President?
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AnonyMint thinks Bitcoin is a central banker conspiracy.
Perhaps. I don't think we can rule it out. Therefore it is smart to take that scenario into account also. Regardless of whether Bitcoin was salted since the beginning or not, as long as central bankers rule the world, the more wealth you have in any kind or form, to be ignorant of central bankers is dangerous. But the fearmongering does not take us anywhere. Rather we should prepare how to use the incredible financial resources that will soon be at our disposal, to the benefit of mankind. CB have coerced Bill Gates &co to give away their wealth to detrimental causes such as abortion clinics, vaccination, primary propaganda education, GMO, climate change, and the like. If we do likewise, Bitcoin did not bring much benefit. If we do nothing, same thing. Since I am more sure than ever that bitcoin's exchange rate will continue to go up, I have given up trying to make more of them, rather try to make the most benefit of them. See my main thread also. |
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This and the following discussion is, I think, high quality concerning the economic threats to Bitcoin. I have high hopes for the Bitcoin ATM's, since they can quickly disperse bitcoins to many hands, which I consider important. I think that having individuals with large bitcoin stashes is equally important, but that is already achieved and will probably not change that much due to inertia alone. Educating the BTC1,000+ holders is my job. We need much more people like me, who quit their day job and do some thinking. There is some talk concerning starting a think tank for people who are strongly committed in crypto and liberty. PM me.
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To get to the parity party.
Who are invited? |
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heart in mouth
did anyone get the gif on bitcoinity when we hit 400? shuda been nice no? or do they only happen for stamp prices now?
Ask and you shall receive:  Pizza index: $4,000,000 If it wasn't a pizza for gods earlier, it is now. The most expensive pizza in history. By far. Platinum is the most expensive thing that you can buy from a metals market, beating gold and rhodium. For the amount mentioned, you can buy 11 pizzas made out of pure platinum (weighing 8 kilograms a piece due to platinum's density), and still have $150k left over, since it is not enough for making the 12th pizza. |
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There is a thread that has some deeper-than-Bitcoin discussion about the state of the world. It has several facets of the topic, so best read when you have time to read several pages. Combined with my recent findings about the Bitcoin market cap growth vis-a-vis new investment flow, this paints a troubling picture of the equality of the bitcoin distribution at the bubble top. It is hardly possible to stall Bitcoin's appreciation to a long-term sustainable value of, about 10 average apartments per bitcoin. At that point, bitcoin has risen 8 orders of magnitude already, and it is just hitting the masses (maybe 100 million people are in, so most are still out). There is just not enough time for the early adopters to get rid of the coins and acquire anything valuable. If they buy something, it is likely from other well-off people, which does not increase the number of bitcoins in the masses' hands. Capital Gains Tax is one thing that greatly hinders bitcoins from being distributed, and should be abolished. 98% of humanity won't have any bitcoins when it enters a bubble and this is a problem, since these are already the laggards, and by buying at the bubble, they make their situation worse, not better. Any thoughts? |
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But isn't that the day that ALL bitcoins are lost?
If 0.01% Bitcoins are lost everyday, how long does it take for all of them to be lost?  After 900 years, there will be 11 satoshi left. |
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No fuel to take off? Come on!
Amount of fuel needed is calculated here. During fast runups, every X USD raises the market cap by 10X USD. In other words, every 1M USD of new money raises the price by $1. |
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Updated the AHA group founding members. As for the other members, I am interested to hear more. At some point of time we'll need to start a careful look towards the top end of the list so that it does not contain 12 million coins. In the other thread of mine, it was estimated that only 3 million coins were owned by the >10k segment and now we already have more than that and likely the list will still grow.
Sorry the background info section is outdated and out-numbered. Should it be merged with the actual list? The quality of links is quite low still, but I was prepared for it. More research makes it better.
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Yeah. If we did not have the undeveloped infrastructure the infrastructure of the banks was up-to-date, people could just easily buy bitcoins, and the price would rise really fast and be already much higher. You can't have it both ways.
Infrastructure......what a fancy name for hobnobbing with dinosaur banks.... fixed |
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Could it be that the Bitcoin popularity arrived at a bad time? I mean this year the price surged and many people became aware of Bitcoin but looking at the infraestructure that surrounds Bitcoin you can see that it is still in its infancy so I imagine many people who got interested in it at first also got dissapointed when they found all the trouble trading with Bitcoins entails, all the technical stuff surrounding it and the kind of shadyness of many of the services surrounding the virtual coin. For example the noobishness of some of the big exchanges. I can't help but feel that the hype was somehow kind of wasted because of all these problems. Maybe later when the infraestructure is more mature people will adopt it faster and it will become a much bigger phenomenon. What do you think?
This is why the exchange rate is still quite low. Bitcoin is a marathon, not a sprint. Yeah. If we did not have the undeveloped infrastructure, people could just easily buy bitcoins, and the price would rise really fast and be already much higher. You can't have it both ways. |
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Grossly disproportionate rewards to a small community of self selecting early adopters.
Early adopter are those how were looking/searching for alternative to the fiat currencies, and they took big risk, have vision and strong hands.. This is ok, they have the merit to own what they own. What big risk? Running the Bitcoin client software on computers they already owned? The risk of holding thousands of bitcoins for 3 or more years through various rallies and crashes. 10,000 bitcoins in June 2011 was $320,000 in value. If you didn't sell, you risked losing $320,000. So, you held on, past the fall to $2, watching your $320,000 become $20,000. Ouch. Then, after what seemed like years, the exchange rate starts increasing again. Do you sell when it hits $32 again, almost 2 years later, regretting not selling the first time, or do you risk it and hold. Then in April 2013 it hits an ATH of $266. Do you sell. Did you sell on the way up? Do you hold? Will Bitcoin be worth anything in a year? Will a superior crypto currency be created? Will major governments outlaw Bitcoin? Will there be a 51% attack? Will there be a fork? Then it crashes back to $60 in a matter of days. Do you sell then? Will it go back up? Who can withstand these kind of fluctuations? What big risk? Bitcoin is extremely risky. Any early adopter still holding early mined coins has experienced risk far beyond what any normal person will experience in their lifetime. The higher the exchange rate goes, the more risk they assume by holding on to their early stash. Most early adopters have long since sold to investors who are capable of dealing with this kind of extreme risk. It doesn't matter which money system is used, there will always be the extremely wealthy and there will always be the extremely poor. Bitcoin wasn't designed to change that because that isn't the job of money. Keep pretending that the early adopters are just comfortably holding thousands of coins, without a care in the world, because they all knew it would make them filthy rich in a few years. I like this. But even more I liked inspired by a few posts before: A: It's unfair that Bitcoin rewards early adapters disproportionately.
B: Pssst... There is a new coin, Litecoin. You can still be an early adopter! A: It is too expensive. I want lots of coins cheaply!
B: Feathercoin has been trading a while and you can just buy as many as you want. A: Wtf is that...
B: The software is open source. Make your own coin and just select how many you want. A: Too much hassle; I would invest my time and even money for something that has no guarantee of ever succeeding.
B: There you have the unfair and disproportionate bitcoiners... |
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At present you can hardly do better than by investing "all" into bitcoin. If you want a million, and realize that risk is involved, BTC10 and 3 years of wait should do it.
There are more important things in life than money, but I don't know much about them I am a simple millionaire.
course a "million" will about buy you a 1993 corolla that needs a timing belt and tires by then I am suggesting that OP buys about 1/1,000,000th of all bitcoins available. Surely that is worth more than million dollars is currently. Only variable is the time - when? |
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