At present you can hardly do better than by investing "all" into bitcoin. If you want a million, and realize that risk is involved, BTC10 and 3 years of wait should do it.

There are more important things in life than money, but I don't know much about them I am a simple millionaire.

*If all the money and stocks and bonds and tax shelter accounts tries to enter bitcoin, I think you can 10-double the valuation of all that tries to fit through the hole (given short enough timeframe) and this will be the final bubble valuation of bitcoin.

Cool post.

What kind of money we are talking about? Bitcoin is growing so quickly and holders tend to hold tightly that the ratio of (market cap growing)/(new money invested) is a multiple of 1.

I have actually estimated this using data from exchanges starting 2012. The most relevant calculation I made is using combined Bitstamp + Gox market volume, multiplied by 33% (assuming that on average 33% of the volume is virgin money and the rest is trading) and relating this to the increase in market cap in the given time. The ratio was 3.9. This means that in order to reach $300k (corresponding to 4.5T market cap), a little bit more than 1,000 billion dollars need to exit the current system and demand conversion to bitcoins.

If it happens too quickly, not even 1,000 billion can enter*. In extreme times such as 1.1.-8.4.2013 ($13.5-143 with six 20-30% flashcrashes but no deeper corrections or negative weeks), the ratio can reach 10. This was even after modifying the virgin money share to 60%.

A corollary is that the current bitcoin holders receive 1,000 billion USD. Miners don't count since they amortize their investment but not much net gain. Traders don't count since they cancel each other with some winning, others losing (in practice most of this money goes to active traders because they lose so much bitcoins in the process, the net loss of bitcoins being large in comparison to the net gain in dollarz).

Yes, the most recent changes to the OP were from today:

- dree12's data used (more accurate volume weighting, did not change a lot)
- as a result, redrawn trendline with equation: y = 0,092x - 2,9124 ;  R² = 0,91466 (x=1 <=> Jan2009).

Interesting thing is that the trendtargets were revised upwards a little. Despite this, the current price is higher than the trendtarget. It does not mean that you should sell or even abstain from buying. Care should be taken when the price significantly overshoots the target. The April high was 3.6x the target.

- If there is a rise to a high plateau above the trendline, the trendline will auto-correct higher + rise towards the price at 23% monthly pace.
- If there is an intermediate top, there will by definition be a correction below the trendline also, and this will be the premier entry point.

Trendtarget for Nov2013: 328
Trendtarget for Dec2013: 404

I don't want to say that you are too pessimistic, AnonyMint, but let's say what works for you, is not feasible for the majority.

Wise people such as Julian Assange know the actual dynamics. It is not so black-and-white, even the vilest administrations need to take into account the public opinion. Governments have lots of resources because we feed them, but they have very much red tape, and the divisions that do actual, harmful, things to people, are understaffed. In the age of Internet you cannot so easily plan atrocities, because maintaining secrecy is so difficult.

What the majority should in my opinion do, is to fulfill Bitcoin's adoption curve (buy bitcoins), and not fear guillotine or supermax. If your liberty is based not on what you feel is right, but rather what you believe you can do in secret, it is not much of a liberty anymore. Bitcoin is a huge chance to make the world more free, especially as it looks like that it will hit its maximum value (not maximum adoption) already about 2016, which will be a huge shift in resource allocation. We need to redeem the time to network with other bitcoin powercenters and show the world that we bring peace and prosperity. Not fearing for our imagined anonymity and unwilling to spend. United we are strong, spreading FUD like the quoted part does not bring any good. (Yes, government does kill intellectuals without due process, but you and I are both alive, proving that it does not happen so often that a general warning is necessary).

This is a good "dystopia" read. I am sure we can make the future better than that, though.

That is the role of speculation. Bitcoin is still world's most undervalued investment. The exponential value appreciation phase will last until bitcoin's price is on the same ballpark as its future value (not present value).

I think even $10,000 bitcoins now are very affordable. Future looks much brighter than in March when I estimated the fair price as $2200.

You miss the gains if you base your estimates on what is available now. It is possible that bitcoin bubble will consummate at about the same time as the early adoption turns into mass adoption. So it was with Internet and Internet stocks in 1999.

Sure, since I am not the one doing the charts anyway

Currently it seems to be postponed until May 2014...

No seriously, the value of this analysis is to give you ideas on when we are ahead or behind the trend. Objectively, not based on handdrawings. For example, my decision to time the selling last September was stupid, since the trendline was so much behind that any downside was very unlikely. As I did not have imminent need for the money, I better had waited and sold for example now, as we are ahead the trend (and at triple the price!).

I have more stuff in you-know-what-logscale thread. We are actually already doing overspeed. This month's trendtarget was revised down to $296. The big retracement of Apr 10 started when we were 3.9x trendtarget.

New datapoints used, see OP!

It is your government that tries to take away the last vestiges of freedom from its people. China has been abused enough, and finally has a chance. And does not need your help, thank you.

I have used one in Helsinki, Finland. It will be fixed installation next week.

LOL, once you finally can get them, they are not wanted anymore.. 

Huh, last week did indeed score a tall green, and this week will also. On Friday I sold a BTC5 casascius for €1,470. When the buyer came back with the money, the price rise had already eaten my 5% margin over spot. The following day it had eaten the BTC1 physical premium. Then it crashed 29% and is already pretty much back where it was. Well done.  

The saddest thing on the Earth are bitcoin speculators who have sold out (at a profit, or loss, doesn't matter) and can't bite the bullet to buy back significantly higher. So now they spend their time in agony and attack old and new adopters alike in forums and Facebook.

I acknowledge the fact that Bitcoin has technical issues and it may have to be reengineered sometime in the future. But from an investor's point of view, every uncertainty can be mitigated by not investing 100% of your assets into same thing. As bitcoin's rise averages over 1000% per year, it is ridiculous to think that it would be risk or volatility free.

Nice graphs, thank you. But is there a reason you selected Mt.Gox opening as the starting point and reject the notion that bitcoin was trading OTC for 1.5 years at an essentially flat rate?

Okay, need to remove him from the list then. The article also mentioned that most of the money is still sitting with Bitcoin-24. Poor lad

I have been thinking about the list, and perhaps put a lower limit of BTC2,100 in cold, hard bitcoins. It is 1/10,000 of the theoretical upper limit of bitcoins and I have estimated that 400 people will make it to the list. On the other hand, the first rule of Vladimir Club is, "don't tell if you are a member".

Yes, we need to have privacy. But currently the overarching pursuit of "security" is undermining the "liberty", which, according to Franklin, will lead to losing both. The evil organizations have all their resources to analyze the blockchain and combine the information, and know the non-anonymous (and by this I mean you have to be really skilled and had a plan since the beginning) large holders very well. The curious public knows almost nothing, which is detrimental for bitcoin's adoption.

I have stepped forward by declaring that I have minimum 2,400 bitcoins at all times. My life has gotten better since making that statement, and I believe it has increased both liberty and security.

Nice way to put it! If we assume that bitcoin is 10 times overvalued now, it still leaves plenty of upside.

It is hard to beat buy&hold, but sometimes we try...

So few coins in Gox that I am sure a 5000 BTC wallmaker could churn out some profit today...

Predicting is difficult. I am almost always wrong. But when I am right, I tend to play with higher stakes so it evens out.

Panic some more, please. It is so fun to watch


What we are seeing now was not so hard to predict:


BUT

A real crash will have the following characteristic:
- price will have risen really high, really quickly over several weeks
- 100,000s of bitcoins are brought to the market by large manipulators that are sure of their ability to tip it over
- Some bitcoins will be sold to induce the forced closure of leveraged positions, resulting in a flashcrash
- Price will quickly bounce back to almost where it was
- The following day/night lots of bitcoins will be sold to destroy the market sentiment and start a panic
- Exchanges, information services, this forum, etc. will be ddosed, mass media publicity will be enormous and negative
- Price will plummet so that about 3 weeks' gains will be erased (about 75% from the high), although it will remain above the previous ATH (in this case $266) by a clear margin.

I won't go into details why it happens this way, but a big reason is that exchanges utterly lack liquidity and btc/usd-rate is therefore at a mercy of manipulators.