I'm asking what you mean by the term "expected profit". If you're not talking about mathematical expectation then what is it you're referring to whe you say "expected profit"?


If you roll 20 times with a 99% chance of winning a tiny amount and a 1% chance of losing a lot, then you only end up with a profit if you win all 20 rolls. The chance of winning 20 out of 20 99% rolls is 0.99^20 = 81.79%.

So you have a 81.79% chance of winning a small amount and a ~20% chance of losing a lot.

Your mathematical expectation in such a case is negative.

Here's what everyone except you is talking about when they say 'expected profit':

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

What are you talking about?

It's too late now. I don't have the 50,000 BTC any more:



If I send the 10,000 BTC I have left, how long will it take you to double it for me?

I checked his account history. His most recent bet was in December.

I think he was just trolling us all.

You are confused about what "expected profit" means.

Consider a game where 9 times out of 10 you win 1 unit, but the other 1 time out of 10 you lose 19 units.

When you play the game, you win 90% of the time.  You might say that you "expect" to win.

But that's not what expectation means when talking about expected profit.  The expected profit is the average profit per visit.  If you played 1000 times, you would win 1 unit about 900 times (winning a total of 900 units) and lose 19 units about 100 times (losing a total of 1900 units).  So you would end up down about 1000 units after playing 1000 times, and so your expected profit is -1000 / 1000 = -1 unit.

You can reasonably "expect" to win any given game, but your expected profit is negative.

Hump him with my megatrust?

Sounds like you're recommending abuse of my DefaultTrust status!

It's not dirty to set a maximum bet limit, it's absolutely necessary.

If there's no limit then you can place a bet that the house is unable to pay out on if you win.

That would be dirty.

Thanks for understanding.

I've sent out tens of thousands of BTC to their rightful owners today, and cech somehow finds it 'fishy'.

If something was fishy wouldn't we be seeing people complain by now?

We weren't.


Does Just-Dice "deal in virtual currency"? Since the new law doesn't define what that means, I'm erring on the side of caution.

I guess I should take a few seconds out from trying to get the withdrawals working as smoothly as possible to confirm that we are suspending betting and deposits until it becomes clearer what the new Canadian law means for us.

Sorry for the inconvenience. Hopefully we will be able to be back up and running at some point, but for now I think it is best if you divest and withdraw your coins.

Obviously there's quite a rush of withdrawals at the moment, and I'm trying my best to keep the hot wallet full.

We don't ever spend unconfirmed "change" outputs, so there's a bit of a bottleneck in that respect. If you can't withdraw now, please wait for a block to be mined and try again.

If you need to withdraw a large (> 50 BTC) amount, please try it on the site first, and if it fails, email doog.justdice@gmail.com repeating the amount, destination address, and userid (number, on the account tab) and I will manually process your withdrawal for you.

Thanks for your patience, and sorry again that I have to do this, but I don't want to risk having your coins confiscated for "money laundering" now that Canada appears to have decided that Bitcoin is money after all.

Ha! I didn't mean to vouch for the guy. It's probably just another scam.

All I was saying was that potentially he's honest. The parameters he set out kind of possibly make sense.

That's true.

There's probably too much in the bankroll.

I guess what will happen is that people will drop out as the return gets smaller.

I don't spend any time looking to see what kinds of returns are available from other Bitcoin sites, so really don't know how Just-Dice compares.

Our recent weekly returns have been:

Mar  3 2014    -0.71%
Mar 10 2014    -0.14%
Mar 17 2014     0.41%
Mar 24 2014     0.80%
Mar 31 2014     0.79%
Apr  7 2014     1.35%
Apr 14 2014     0.90%
Apr 21 2014     1.01%
Apr 28 2014     0.85%
May  5 2014     0.56%
May 12 2014     0.32%
May 19 2014     1.05%
May 26 2014     0.35%
Jun  2 2014     0.22%
Jun  9 2014     2.06%
Jun 16 2014     0.22%
Jun 23 2014     0.83%

That's an average (adding them up and dividing by 17) of 0.64% per week or (multiplying by 52) 33.25% per year.

How does that compare with other places? I guess it's not fair anyway, since the bankroll is much bigger now than it was 17 weeks ago.

I hear there are a few sites that double your Bitcoins in 4 business days... 

Oh, I see.

When we launched, the maximum profit per roll was 1% of the bankroll, so 291 BTC per roll was when the bankroll was 29,100 BTC. We dropped it to 0.5% (via 0.25%) after nakowa scared us with his monster bets.

So yes, that number is off as well...

That's because we had one huge whale and he kicked our asses... 

We did better once he stopped playing, it's true.


That's profit as a percentage of the amount wagered?

I try to use "return" to mean the profit as a percentage of the bankroll, because that's the return the people bankrolling the site get.  If only 1 BTC is bet one day and the bet loses, that's a 100% profit in terms of the amount wagered, but approximately 0% return to the bankrollers. (100 * 1/50000 ~= 0)

I don't follow you.  What's 291 in reference to?

It's surprising how often you hear people say that Martingale was working really well for them, but then they got greedy, or lost focus, or some other such weakness.

As if the system would have continued to work if only they had stuck to the system.

I've not ever had to use bitZino support, but bear in mind it is Sunday in many parts of the world. Maybe they don't have anyone answering support email on the weekend?

Yes, it's 0.001.

Where do you see 0.01?

Edit: maybe you meant in the first post of this thread? I just fixed that.

I have never banned anyone for asking to buy a forum account. I'm not sure why you're saying I did.

I've never banned anyone for being critical of the site either. I often argue with people who have views opposed to mine, and never mute them for disagreeing with me. I do mute obvious scammers and people who are just spamming the chat with junk or advertisements. If you just keep saying "the site is rigged" but aren't willing to expand on your reasoning then I'll mute you too. I don't think any of that is unreasonable.

If you tell me what account you were on I can look at the logs and see what happened if you like.

It may be that one of the chat moderators muted you without a good reason. I'd like to look into it.